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Pacific Panel Major activities over the past year • Panel meeting in Guayaquil, Ecuador, October 2010 • International Workshop on ENSO, Decadal Variability and Climate Change in South America, Guayaquil, Ecuador, October 2010 • SPCZ workshop, Aug 2010, Samoa Islands. • International workshop on North Pacific West Boundary Current dynamics, May 2010, Qingdao • Workshop “New strategies for evaluating ENSO processes in climate models”, Paris, France, November 2010 • EGU ENSO sessions • Coordination of NPOCE, GAIA, ITF, OKMC, SPICE and PCCSP, plus “MIXET” Pacific panel Major future plans/activities • Indonesian Throughflow Task Team (jointly with IOP) • Strengthen links and develop activities with PICES and other “green” programmes • Development of several review papers (the South Pacific Convergence Zone, Intra-seasonal Oscillation, and WBCs’ response to global warming. • Support for South America East Boundary Current research • Continue coordination of major programs Workshops/meetings planned • ITF Task Team meeting, early 2012, Indonesia • 7th Pacific Panel meeting, 29 April – 01 May 2012 – Noumea, New Caledonia. • NPOCE open science meeting, early 2012. Pacific Panel Recent scientific highlights • J Climate paper “Wind effect on past and future sea level trends in the Southern Indo-Pacific” • SPCZ and climate change • J Climate paper “Impact of Decadal Pacific Oscillation on regional drought and flood” led to a Wall Street Journal opinion piece • Climate dynamic paper “Impact of mean state climate change on ENSO flavours” • Paper on ENSO instablitity analysis published. • Continuing work on “El Niño and Climate Change” after Nature Geoscience paper. • NPOCE conducted its major (52-day long) investigation survey to the Northwestern Pacific. Detection: Ensemble Mean Std. Dev. 30-year NINO3 5-95%tiles of ensemble mean obs Natural variability 5-95%tiles Collins et al. 2011 obs Risk of Large El Nino Event Position and flux associated with ENSO Vincent et al. 2010 Tropical Cyclone Genesis As in Vincent et al 2010 but extending to 2008 EOF 2, 16% EOF2 EOF 1, 48% EOF1 Applied to 24 CMIP3 models since 1950 PIC runs, only 11 models are able to produce Aggregated over 11 models Control experiments Climate Change experiments SST and Wind Projection in CMIP3 SST response to CO2 is Characterized by enhanced Equatorial warming Convergence of trades towards equator Ekman suction in South-Western Pacific Timmermann et al. 2011 Regional % deviations relative to global mean sea rise (2001-2100) Wind-induced acceleration of global mean sea level rise IPCC (2007) Rahmstorf (2007) 10% means delay by 1 decade per century Wind-induced deceleration of global mean sea level rise Cai et al. 2010 Changes in the number of EP and CP El Nino events CP El Nino EP El Nino (20-yr sliding frequency of CP El Nino (red sold line) and EP El Nino(black dashed line). 20-yr sliding frequency is defined by counting each El Nino event during the 20-yr period) Choi et al. (2010) Pacific Panel Issues and challenges (for input to JSC) NPOCE OKMC TAO/TRITON ITF GAIA MONITORING Pacific climate change science Programme PCCSP NPOCE launched in May, 2010 Design and progress of NPOCE field experiment Deployed moorings and buoy by IOCAS, OUC and KORDI NPOCE activities (2010-2011) NPOCE timeline (Hu et al., 2010, NPOCE Science/Implementation Plan) POSEIDON Project Workshop, Oct. 2010, Jeju, Korea NPOCE Coordinating Meeting, Mar. 28, 2011, Busan, Korea 1 Korean buoy deployed in May 2010 2 Chinese moorings deployed, 8 Argo floats and 30 ARGOs drifters released in Dec. 2010 2 Chinese moorings to be recovered and replaced in Jun. 2011 2 Japanese moorings to be deployed in Aug. 2011 The first NPOCE cruise of China (November, 2010-January, 2011) 75kHz ADCPs + EvoLogics Acoustic Modem, 400 m DVS 700 m 1200 m 5450 m Mooring(2) Argo(8)/Argos(30) IXSEA 1500 m ORE 5500 m End Ongoing experiments, Coral Sea Gliders (2005/06 and 2007/10) Gourdeau et al., 2008 Kessler, Davis, Gourdeau Cruise FLUSEC (2007) Maes et al., 2011 XBT and Argo floats Cruises (2008-2011) SECALIS/SECARGO Maes et al., submitted (2003-2010); GBROOS: 2010-2011 Gasparin et al. 2011; Ganachaud et al., 2008 Observations Models: regional 1/12° Coral Sea ROMS (2008) regional 1/12° Solomon Sea ORCA Couvelard et al. Melet et al. (2010a, c) Wu et al. 2011