Download awio20 fmee 251131 tropical cyclone center / rsmc la reunion

AWIO20 FMEE 251131
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2016/05/25 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1:
WARNING SUMMARY:
Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:
The basin is in Near Equatorial Trough (NET) pattern waving between 3 and 7S. Deep convection
is moderate and fluctuating East of 75E and North of 10S. West of 70E, North of a baroclinic area,
axed 5S/50E, 12S/70E, 20S/90E, deep convective activity is locally strong. A low level clockwise
circulation (LLCC), partially exposed, has developed near 6.0S/62.0E at 0900Z within the low
level warm air North of the baroclinic area. 0535Z ASCAT swath indicates maximum winds
between 10/15 kt reaching 20/25 kt over the southern semi-circle by gradient effect. Minimum
pressure is estimated at 1008 kt.
Environmental conditions are unfavourable for further development with a moderate to strong
vertical wind shear. LLCC is forecasted to move slowly and fill up slowly at the end of the week.
Development of a tropical depression is not expected for the next 5 days.
NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a tropical depression
over the basin and within the next five days:
Very low:
Low:
less than 10%
10% to 30%
Moderate:
High:
30% to 50%
50% to 90%
Very high:
over 90%
The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african
coastlines to 90E.