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SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN COLLEGE SCHOOL OF ARTS AND SCIENCES Dowagiac, Michigan COURSE SYLLABUS FALL Semester 2013 COURSE TITLE: CREDITS/CONTACTS: FINAL EXAM INFORMATION: COURSE NO.: SECTION NO.: STATISTICS Credit Hours: Lecture hours/weekly: Laboratory hours/weekly: Weekly Contact Hours: MATH 150 1323 4 4 0 4 Thursday, December 12 INSTRUCTOR: Andrew Dohm, 713E Daugherty, (269) 782-1255, [email protected] OFFICE HOURS: M W = 10:20 – 11:20 am, T TH F = 12:40 – 1:40 pm PREREQUISITE: Minimum grade of C in MATH 101 or MATH 102 and READ 100 or satisfactory test scores. COURSE DESCRIPTION: Introduces the central ideas and the application of statistical inference. Surveys graphic presentation, frequency distributions, sampling and probability, regression and correlation, interval estimation, hypothesis testing, and goodness of fit. DEPARTMENT CHAIR: Dr. Keith Howell, 713C Daugherty, (269) 782-1250, [email protected] COURSE OUTCOMES: See Page #3 TEXTBOOK: REQUIRED: ADDITIONAL REQUIRED RESOURCES: Elementary Statistics, 12th Edition by Mario Triola MyStatLab Access Code Scientific Calculator ATTENDANCE POLICY: Regular on-time attendance in this course is expected. Many things happen during class time that adds to your educational experience. If you are absent, you are still responsible for the work assigned for that day and any other information covered that day. If you do miss class, I assume you have a good reason for being gone. I do not need a doctor’s note or other documentation letting me know why you were absent. If a major emergency arises, let me know. TESTING POLICY: There will be no makeup tests without prior approval. If you miss a test and I do not hear from you by the end of that day, you will receive a zero for that test. All tests will be taken in class and are timed. If you feel that you need extra time or accommodations you must make arrangements through Special Populations. FEEDBACK POLICY: In most cases, you can expect graded assignments and assessments to be returned the next class period following their submission. 1 METHOD OF INSTRUCTION: Interactive demonstrations, cooperative groups, discussions. EVALUATION METHOD: MyStatLab Projects Discussion Posts Tests (5) Comprehensive Final Exam GRADING SCALE: The following grading scale will be in effect for this course: 30% 20% 5% 25% 20% A 93.4-100% C 73.4-76.7% A- 90-93.3% C- 70-73.3% B+ 86.8-89.9% D+ 66.8-69.9% B 83.4-86.7% D 63.4-66.7% B- 80-83.3% D- 60-63.3% C+ 76.8-79.9% F 0-59.9% To satisfy Core Curriculum requirements, students must earn a grade of “C” or higher in this class. CLASSROOM BEHAVIOR: Students are expected to assist in maintaining a classroom environment that is conducive to learning. In order to assure that all students have the opportunity to gain from time spent in class; students are prohibited from engaging in any form of distraction. Inappropriate behavior in the classroom shall result, minimally, in a request to leave class. ACCEPTABLE USE OF PERSONAL COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY: All cell phones, laptops, and other technological devices not required for class must be turned off and may not be brought out during class. Your instructor will make every effort to identify devices, software, and necessary protocols for usage throughout the course. In all cases, utilizing devices that detract from a productive classroom experience is unacceptable and will not be permitted. If you are expecting an urgent call, please alert the instructor at the beginning of class and exit the classroom prior to answering. If you are found to be in violation of these policies, you may be asked to leave during that class session; multiple violations may be referred to the appropriate Dean for disciplinary action. Your instructor has the right to modify this policy to meet the needs of the course. HONESTY POLICY: Cheating or plagiarizing will absolutely not be tolerated at Southwestern Michigan College. Any student found cheating or plagiarizing material in any manner may be assigned a failing semester/session grade in this course. A second such incident while at SMC could result in suspension or expulsion from the institution. A student found in violation of this section of the syllabus will not be allowed to drop this course. Additional detail regarding cheating and/or plagiarism may be found elsewhere in this syllabus. For more detailed information consult the SMC Code of Student Conduct. NOTICE: Representative student work will be used as a part of SMC’s on-going curriculum assessment program. 2 COURSE GOALS & OUTCOMES: *Goals for students in an introductory statistics course Students should believe and understand why: Data beat anecdotes. Variability is natural, predictable, and quantifiable. Random sampling allows results of surveys and experiments to be extended to the population from which the sample was taken. Random assignment in comparative experiments allows causeand-effect conclusions to be drawn. Association is not causation. Statistical significance does not necessarily imply practical importance, especially for studies with large sample sizes. Finding no statistically significant difference or relationship does not necessarily mean there is no difference or no relationship in the population, especially for studies with small sample size. Students should recognize: Common sources of bias in surveys and experiments. How to determine the population to which the results of statistical inference can be extended, if any, based on how the data were collected. How to determine when a cause-and-effect inference can be drawn from an association based on how the data were collected (e.g., the design of the study). That words such as “normal," “random,” and “correlation” have specific meanings in statistics that may differ from common usage. Students should understand the parts of the process through which statistics works to answer questions, namely: How to obtain or generate data. How to graph the data as a first step in analyzing data, and how to know when that’s enough to answer the question of interest. How to interpret numerical summaries and graphical displays of data—both to answer questions and to check conditions (to use statistical procedures correctly). How to make appropriate use of statistical inference. How to communicate the results of a statistical analysis. Students should understand the basic ideas of statistical inference, including: The concept of a sampling distribution and how it applies to making statistical inferences based on samples of data (including the idea of standard error). The concept of statistical significance, including significance levels and p-values. The concept of confidence interval, including the interpretation of confidence level and margin of error. Finally, students should know: How to interpret statistical results in context. How to critique news stories and journal articles that include statistical information, including identifying what’s missing in the presentation and the flaws in the studies or methods used to generate the information. When to call for help from a statistician. *American Statistical Association. (2012). Guidelines for assessment and instruction in statistics education: College report. 11-13. 3 Learning Outcomes Upon completion of each section, students should be able to: 1-2 1. Describe the difference between statistical significance and practical significance. 2. Define voluntary response sample and determine that statistical conclusions based on data from such a sample are generally not valid. 1-3 1. Define parameter, statistic, quantitative data, categorical data. 2. Determine whether basic statistical calculations are appropriate for a particular data set. 1-4 1. Define simple random sample. 2. Describe the importance of sound sampling methods and the importance of good design of experiments. 2-2/3 2-4 3-2 3-3 3-4 4-2 4-3 4-4 5-2 1. Define frequency distribution and determine whether a potential frequency distribution actually satisfies the necessary requirements. 2. Construct a histogram and make a conclusion about the nature of a distribution by examining a histogram. 1. Construct a dotplot, stemplot, and scatterplot. 2. Determine that the scale used in a graph can distort the impression created, and they should know that objects of area or volume should not be used to depict values that are one-dimensional in nature. 1. Measure the center of data by finding the mean, median, and mode. 2. Determine whether an outlier has a substantial effect on the mean, median, and mode. 1. Measure variation in a set of sample data by finding values of the range, variance, and standard deviation. 2. Interpret values of the standard deviation by applying the range rule of thumb to determine whether a particular value is unusual. 3. Interpret a value of a standard deviation by determining the minimum usual value and maximum usual value. 1. Compute a z score and use the result to determine whether a given value x is unusual. 2. Define percentiles and quartiles. 3. Construct a boxplot from a given set of sample data. 1. Identify probability values as values between 0 and 1. 2. Determine whether an event is unusual and/or unlikely, and they should have developed the ability to calculate probabilities of events. 3. Describe the classical definition of probability by including the statement that it requires equally likely outcomes. 4. Define the complement of an event and calculate the probability of that complement. 1. Calculate the probability that in a single trial, some event A occurs or some event B occurs or they both occur. 2. Apply the addition rule by correctly adjusting for events that are not disjoint. 1. Calculate the probability of an event A occurring in a first trial and an event B occurring in a second trial. 2. Apply the multiplication rule by adjusting for events that are not independent. 3. Distinguish between independent events and dependent events. 1. Define random variable and probability distribution. 2. Determine when a potential probability distribution actually satisfies the necessary requirements. 4 5-3 5-4 6-2 6-3 6-4 6-5 6-6 7-2 7-3 7-4 3. Compute the mean and standard deviation of a given probability distribution then use those results to determine whether results are unusual. 1. Describe a binomial probability distribution and find probability values for a binomial distribution. 1. Compute the mean and standard deviation for a binomial distribution then use those results to determine whether results are unusual. 1. Describe a standard normal distribution. 2. Find the probability of some range of values in a standard normal distribution. 3. Find z scores corresponding to regions under the curve representing a standard normal distribution. 1. Describe a normal distribution. 2. Find the probability of some range of values in a normal distribution. 3. Find x scores corresponding to regions under the curve representing a normal distribution. 1. Describe a sampling distribution of a statistic, and determine whether a statistic serves as a good estimator of the corresponding population parameter. 1. Describe the central limit theorem. 2. Apply the central limit theorem by finding the probability that for some collection of sample values, the sample mean falls within some specified range of values. 3. Identify conditions for which it is appropriate to use a normal distribution for the distribution of sample means. 1. Examine histograms, outliers, and normal quartile plots to determine whether sample data appear to be from a distribution that is approximately normal. 2. Examine a normal quartile plot and determine whether it depicts data from a normal distribution. 1. Construct a confidence interval estimate of a population proportion and interpret such confidence interval estimates. 2. Identify the requirements necessary for the procedure that is used, and they should be able to determine whether those requirements are satisfied. 3. Determine critical values that correspond to various levels of confidence. 4. Determine the sample size necessary to estimate a population proportion. 1. Construct a confidence interval estimate of a population mean and interpret such confidence interval estimates. 2. Identify the requirements necessary for the procedure that is used, and they should be able to determine whether those requirements are satisfied. 3. Determine critical values that correspond to various levels of confidence. 4. Determine the sample size necessary to estimate a population mean. 1. Construct a confidence interval estimate of a population standard deviation or variance and interpret such confidence interval estimates. 2. Identify the requirements necessary for the procedure that is used, and they should be able to determine whether those requirements are satisfied. 3. Determine critical values that correspond to various levels of 5 confidence. 8-2 8-3 8-4 8-5 10-2 10-3 10-5 10-6 1. Identify the null and alternative hypotheses when given some claim about a population proportion, mean, standard deviation, or variance. 2. Calculate a test statistic, determine critical values, P-values, and state a final conclusion that addresses the original claim. 1. Conduct a formal hypothesis test of a claim made about a population proportion. The procedure should include statements of the null and alternative hypotheses, determination of the test statistic, critical value(s) or P-value, conclusion of rejecting the null hypothesis or failing to reject the null hypothesis, and a final conclusion that addresses the original claim. 1. Conduct a formal hypothesis test of a claim made about a population mean. The procedure should include statements of the null and alternative hypotheses, determination of the test statistic, critical value(s) or P-value, conclusion of rejecting the null hypothesis or failing to reject the null hypothesis, and a final conclusion that addresses the original claim. 1. Conduct a formal hypothesis test of a claim made about a population standard deviation or variance. The procedure should include statements of the null and alternative hypotheses, determination of the test statistic, critical value(s) or P-value, conclusion of rejecting the null hypothesis or failing to reject the null hypothesis, and a final conclusion that addresses the original claim. 1. Use paired data to find the value of the linear correlation coefficient r, and determine whether the result leads to the conclusion that there is a linear correlation between two variables. 1. Use paired sample data to determine the equation of the regression line. 2. Find the best predicted value of a variable given some value of another variable. 1. Interpret results from statistical software to determine whether a multiple regression equation is suitable for making predictions. 2. Compare results from different combinations of predictor variables and identify the combination of predictor variables that results in the best multiple regression equation. 1. Use paired data to identify the linear, quadratic, logarithmic, exponential, and power models. They should be able to determine which model fits best. 11-3 1. Use categorical data summarized as frequencies in a table with a least two rows and at least two columns to conduct a formal test of independence between the row variable and column variable. 12-2 1. Conduct a hypothesis test of equality of three or more population means by interpreting results from statistical software. 1. Apply the method of two-way analysis of variance to (1) test for an interaction between two factors, (2) test for an effect from the row factor, and (3) test for an effect from the column factor. The hypothesis tests can be conducted by interpreting results from technology, and the sample data are categorized into groups using two factors. 12-3 6 COURSE COMPONENTS: MyStatLab MyStatLab (MSL) is a text-specific, easily customizable online course that integrates interactive multimedia instruction with textbook content. This system provides a rich and flexible set of course materials, featuring freeresponse tutorial exercises for unlimited practice and mastery. You can also use online tools such as video lectures, animations, and a multimedia textbook to independently improve your understanding and performance. PRE Assignments (MSL) PRE assignments will be assigned for each chapter section in the curriculum. The assignments consist of the following parts: Video – brief discussion of the main idea(s) of the chapter section. Power Point – slides that summarize the content of each section. Animated Activities/Applets – many sections include activities that guide you through important concepts using animated figures and graphics. Reading Assessments – questions about the content of the section. You will be required to view the media before being allowed to answer the reading assessment questions. PRE assignments are due before we discuss the material in class. This will ensure you have studied the content and will be prepared to apply it during our class sessions. PRE assignments can be completed after they are due with a 50% penalty per day on the work submitted after the due date and time. These assignments are prerequisites for the Problem Sets. Problem Sets (MSL) Every chapter section includes an end-of-section problem set. End of Section Problems – selected problems designed to apply the concepts learned in the section. MSL provides many levels of assistance for these problems: etext, links to Statdisk and StatCrunch, “Help me solve this”, and Student Solutions Manual. Think of this as the practice that will strengthen your knowledge of the material. Problem sets can be completed after they are due with a 25% penalty per day on the work submitted after the due date and time. Chapter Review Quizzes (MSL) Each chapter will conclude with a quiz containing a few homework problems. This will assess whether or not you have met the objectives of the chapter. Weekly Discussion Posts (MSL) There is a discussion board in MSL where you will be asked to post an interested statistic you have researched. Each week has a theme covering major topics like the economy, jobs, global warming/climate change, green energy, education, health care, distracted driving, sports, etc. You will also be required to comment on another student’s post. This is designed to give you exposure to a wide array to statistical resources and information. Statdisk Statdisk is statistical software designed to accompany the textbook. You have access to a Student Laboratory Manual and Workbook for Statdisk through MSL. 3-5 activities will be assigned every chapter out of this manual. This will give you exposure to using a piece of software to organize, display, and interpret statistical data. Each Statdisk assignment will require the submission of a written report through our Moodle course page. 7 Unit Tests Each unit (a unit typically consists of 2 or 3 chapters) concludes with an inclass written test. Capstone Group Project You will be asked to create a survey, administer the survey, collect results, organize those results, run some statistics on the data, and present a summary of your findings. Comprehensive Final Exam You will be given an outcomes referenced final exam at the end of the semester. CLASS PREPARATION: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Read the assigned textbook sections. Study the definitions, graphics, and examples. Watch the video for the section. Review the PowerPoint for the section. Explore the animated activities and applets. Answer the reading assessment questions. OTHER EXPECTATIONS AND RESPONSIBILITIES: Submit all assignments complete, according to the instructions, and on time. Attend and be prepared for class by completing all assigned reading and PRE assignments in advance. Actively participate in lectures, discussions, and activities. All questions, perspectives, and opinions are important and valuable – you are encouraged to share and discuss. Ask for clarification when you don’t understand. Complete all assigned homework during the week. Ask questions when you incorrectly answer homework problems. Never, never, never get behind. COURSE RATIONALE: Taking a course is like embarking on a journey. A journey filled with explorations, trials, perseverance, and personal growth. This course might be a little different from other courses you have taken. My goal is the have you learn, not just earn a grade. I believe the best way to promote this is by using active learning techniques. Active learning centers around you being actively engaged in the learning process. Information that would typically be given in lecture format has been off loaded as homework. Instead of lecturing, expect to be involved in classroom activities that aim to increase your conceptual understanding of the material and gauge your progress towards meeting the course outcomes. I see myself as more of the coach that will guide you through the learning process and motivate you to do well. I believe in challenging my students to reach very high standards of performance and in providing them with the resources they need to reach those standards. Expect to gain more than just content knowledge is this course. Learning how to learn is critical. The ability to seek out information, process it, organize it, and use it will help you become a life-long learner. Things like creativity and innovation, critical thinking and problem solving, communication and collaboration, and information, media, and technology skills are also important. Those skills are woven into our journey through this course. NOTICE: Information in this syllabus was, to the best knowledge of the instructor, considered correct and complete when distributed for use at the beginning of the semester. The instructor, however, reserves the right, acting within the policies and procedures of Southwestern Michigan College, to make changes in course content or instructional techniques. 8 COURSE OUTLINE & ASSIGNMENTS DATE 9/3 TEXT SECTIONS 1-1, 1-2 9/5 TOPICS Introduction, Statistical and Critical Thinking 1-3, 1-4 Types of Data Collecting Sample Data 9/10 2-1, 2-2, 2-3, 24 Frequency Distribution and Histograms Graphs that Enlighten and Deceive 9/12 3-2, 3-3 9/17 3-3, 3-4 Measures of Center Measures of Variation Measures of Variation Measures of Relative Standing and Boxplots 9/19 9/24 Ch. 1, 2, 3 4-1, 4-2, 4-3, 44 Review/TEST 1 Basics of Probability and the Addition Rule Multiplication Rule: Basics 9/26 5-1, 5-2, 5-3 Probability Distributions Binomial Probability Distributions 10/1 5-4 Parameters for Binomial Probability Distributions 10/3 10/8 Ch. 4, 5 6-1, 6-2, 6-3 Review/TEST 2 The Standard Normal Distribution Applications of Normal Distributions 10/10 6-4, 6-5, 6-6 Sampling Distribution and Estimators The Central Limit Theorem Assessing Normality 10/15 7-1, 7-2, 7-3 Estimating a Population Proportion Estimating a Population Mean ASSIGNMENTS Read the Syllabus, 1-2 PRE 1-2 HW DP 1 1-3 PRE, 1-4 PRE 1-3 HW 1-4 HW Ch. 1 Review Quiz 2-2 PRE, 2-3 PRE, 2-4 PRE 2-2 HW 2-3 HW 2-4 HW SD: 2-1, 2-2, 2-5, 2-6, DUE: Ch. 2 Review Quiz DP 2 3-2 PRE, 3-3 PRE 3-2 HW 3-4 PRE 3-3 HW 3-4 HW SD: 3-1, 3-2, 3-3, 3-4, DUE: Ch. 3 Review Quiz DP 3 4-2 PRE, 4-3 PRE, 4-4 PRE 4-2 HW 4-3 HW 4-4 HW SD: 4-1, 4-2, 4-12, 4-13, DUE: Ch. 4 Review Quiz DP 4 5-2 PRE, 5-3 PRE 5-2 HW 5-3 HW 5-4 PRE 5-4 SD: 4-3, 4-8, 4-10, Tech Proj (p. 240), DUE: Ch. 5 Review Quiz DP 5 6-2 PRE, 6-3 PRE 6-2 HW 6-3 HW DP 6 6-4 PRE, 6-5 PRE, 6-6 PRE 6-4 HW 6-5 HW 6-6 HW SD: 4-16, 6-3, 6-4, DUE: Ch. 6 Review Quiz 7-2 PRE, 7-3 PRE 7-2 HW SD: 7-5, 7-8, 7-14, 7-15, DUE: DP 7 9 10/17 7-3, 7-4 10/22 10/24 Ch. 6, 7 8-1, 8-2, 8-3 10/29 8-3, 8-4 Review/TEST 3 Basics of Hypothesis Testing Testing a Claim about a Proportion Testing a Claim about a Proportion Testing a Claim about a Mean 10/31 8-4, 8-5 11/5 11/7 11/12 Ch. 8 10-1, 10-2, 103 10-3, 10-5 Review/TEST 4 Correlation Correlation and Regression Correlation and Regression Multiple Regression 11/14 10-6, 11-3 Nonlinear Regression Contingency Tables 11/19 12-1, 12-2, 123 One Way ANOVA Two Way ANOVA 11/21 11/26 12/3 12/5 Ch. 10, 11, 12 Review/TEST 5 Group Project Presentations Group Project Presentations Review for Comprehensive Final Exam Estimating a Population Mean Estimating a Population Standard Deviation of Variance Testing a Claim about a Mean Testing a Claim about a Standard Deviation or Variance 7-4 PRE 7-3 HW 7-4 HW SD: 7-22, 7-23, 7-26, 7-28, DUE: Ch. 7 Review Quiz DP 8 8-2 PRE, 8-3 PRE 8-2 HW 8-4 PRE 8-3 HW SD: 8-1, 8-5, 8-13, DUE: DP 9 8-5 PRE 8-4 HW 8-5 HW Ch. 8 Review Quiz DP 10 10-2 PRE, 10-3 PRE 10-2 HW 10-5 PRE 10-3 HW 10-5 HW SD: 10-3, 10-10, 10-11, 10-13, DUE: DP 11 10-6 PRE, 11-3 PRE 10-6 HW 11-3 HW SD: Internet Proj (CPI), DUE: Ch. 10 Review Quiz 12-2 PRE, 12-3 PRE 12-2 HW 12-3 HW SD: 12-1, 12-8, DUE: DP 12 DP 13 PRE = Preliminary Assignment in MyStatLab, always due before that class STARTS! HW = Section Homework in MyStatLab, check system for due dates. SD = Statdisk Experiments from Student Lab Manual and Workbook. DP = Discussion Post, see “Discussions” in MyStatLab. 10