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INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF JAPAN, NIIGATA, JAPAN MONGOLIAN UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE and TECHNOLOGY, ULAANBAATAR, MONGOLIA MONGOLIA: Emerging economy and its Human resource, Infrastructure needs Prof. Ochirbat Baatar Vice President , Mongolian University of Science and Technology Ass.prof. Ganbat Tsendsuren School of Computer Science and Management, MUST GSIM, IUJ, NIIGATA, JAPAN 24-25 May 2012 CONTENT I. 40 YEARS OF HISTORY II. DEVELOPMENT OF MONGOLIA • Current Condition of Development of Mongolia • Economic future of Mongolia • Mongolian Development Pillars III. CURRENT SITUATION OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY IN MONGOLIA 40 YEARS OF HISTORY 2012 - The 40th anniversary of Mongolia-Japan diplomatic relations The Prime Minister S.BATBOLD spoke at the ceremony of the anniversary event about Japan’s rich heritage and their modern transformation to one of the biggest economic, industrial and cultural centers in Asia and the world. He also committed to improving cooperation between Japan and Mongolia in regards to the strategic partnership principle. 40 years of history Politics Business and economics Education sector Sports and Culture Mongolia About Mongolia Territory: 1,566,500 sq.km (almost 7 times bigger than UK land) Land boundaries: 8.158 km, with Russia ; 3,485 km and with China 4,673 km Average altitude: 1,580 m above sea-level Climate: Sharp continental, marked by four seasons. Average summer temperature +20'C, average winter temperature -15C, average rainfall 200-220 mm. Population: 2,754,685 (Nov 2011 est.) Language: Mongolian Religion: Buddhism About Mongolia Terrain: Vast semi-desert and desert plains, mountains in west and southwest, Gobi Desert in south-east . Natural resources: Mongolia has one of Asia's largest freshwater lakes – Hubsugul and river system. 75.1 percent of territory - pasture land and 8.0 percent - forest. Vegetation cover - 2260 species of vascular plants united in 596 genera and 104 families. Fauna - 127 species of mammals, 360 species of birds and 70 species of fishes. Mineral resources: More than 6,000 occurrences of about 80 different minerals such as ferrous, non-ferrous, light and precious metals, rare metals and rare-earth elements, non-metals, fossil fuels as well as industrial and building materials. Mongolia is rich in copper, coal, gold and others. Climate: Sharp continental, marked by four seasons. Average summer temperature +20'C, average winter temperature -15C, average rainfall 200-220 mm. Central Mongolia Southern Part of Mongolia Northern Part of Mongolia Horse Racing during National Holiday Capital City - Ulaanbaatar Current Development of Mongolia Current condition of development of Mongolia Comparison with the world’s other countries Per capita GDP Human Development Index • Low middle income country according to the World Bank’s classification • 100th place out of 169 countries as per Human Development report published by UNDP Competitiveness Index • 96th place out of 139 countries according to the World Economic Forum Quality of Life • 107th place out of 192 countries according to survey conducted by the International Living institution Infrastructure development Overall Road Railway Seaport * Airway Energy production The world average 4,30 4,00 3,20 4,30 4,70 4,50 G7 5,71 5,61 5,39 5,44 5,69 6,46 Central Asia 3,98 3,16 3,50 2,96 3,96 3,64 East Asia 5,74 5,60 5,80 5,44 5,52 6,30 South East Asia 4,48 4,44 3,24 4,54 5,04 4,63 South Asia 3,05 3,10 2,85 3,55 3,98 2,00 Mongolia 2.30 1.70 2.50 3.30 3.00 3.10 Source: World Economic forum, World competitiveness report. *-possibility to get in seaport Macroeconomic condition Economic structure: Economic structure Foreign trade Inflation Employment 100% Agriculture хөдөө аж ахуй 90% 80% Mining andолдворлох уул уурхай, extractive үйлдвэр industry 70% боловсруулах үйлдвэр Processing industry 60% Energy industry цахилгаан эрчим хүч 50% Construction барилга industry 40% Budget balance Export structure 30% бөөний Wholeболон and retail sales жижиглэн худалдаа 20% Transportation тээвэр холбоо and Communication 10% Balance of payment 0% 2005 Money supply 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 үйлчилгээний бусад Other service industry салбарууд Macroeconomic condition Foreign trade 4595 Economic structure 9000.0 4150.0 3951 8546 8000.0 Foreign trade 3245 3200 3150.0 7000.0 Inflation 2909 2535 Employment 2138 2150.0 5779.0 2062 6000.0 6108.6 1885 1948 1542.0 Budget balance 1435.0 5000.0 1177.3 1150.0 1063.9 4009.3 4000.0 Export structure 4023.1 107 150.0 2005 Balance of payment Money supply -113 2977.0 2006 2007 -114 2008 2009 -252.3 2010 2011** 3000.0 -291.6 2241.2 -850.0 export Экспорт Гадаад тэнцэл Foreignхудалдааны trade balance -710 -644 import Импорт Нийт эргэлт Total бараа trade balance 2000.0 Macroeconomic condition Economic structure Foreign trade Inflation Employment 25 20 17.8 13.0 10.2 10 5 Export structure 0 Money supply Inflation 15 Budget balance Balance of payment 22.1 4.2 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* Macroeconomic condition Economic structure Foreign trade 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Budget balance Active population in economy /per thousand people/ Work force’ participatory rate /percent/ Employment level Export structure Registered unemployment level 3.2 2.8 2.8 3.3 3.3 3.3 Balance of payment Unemployment rate - - - 11.6 9.9 7.1 Inflation Employment Money supply 1042. 1054 1071 1137 1147 8 .0 .5 .9 .1 64.4 64.2 63.5 66.8 61.6 62.4 62.4 61.7 88.4 90.1 Macroeconomic condition Economic structure Foreign trade 200.0 100.0 41.5 36.6 33.3 38.6 45.0 40.2 35.4 38.6 32.9 140.7 123.4 Inflation 2007 2008 2009 40.0 35.0 41.7 0.0 2006 37.8 37.3 30.0 2010 25.0 Employment -100.0 20.0 Budget balance -200.0 Export structure -300.0 Balance of payment -400.0 15.0 10.0 -296.5 -342.7 budgetтэнцэл balance/ billionтөгрөг/ MNT төсвийн /тэрбум Нийт орлогоrevenue ба тусламжийн орлогын Aggregate and GDP ratio ДНБ-д эзлэх хувь Нийт зарлагаexpenditure ба цэвэр зээлийн дүнratio ДНБ-д эзлэх хувь Aggregate and GDP Money supply 5.0 0.0 Macroeconomic condition Economic structure 2500.0 Foreign trade 1500.0 2000.0 1000.0 Inflation 389.2 555.5 906.4 287.9 500.0 0.0 Employment Budget balance Export structure Balance of payment Money supply -500.0 -351.3 -1000.0 -1500.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 Currentдансны accountтэнцэл balance I. Урсгал (албан ёсны шилжүүлгийг оролцуулаад) and capital account данс II.Fiscal Санхүүгийн ба хөрөнгийн Нийт төлбөрийн Total balance ofтэнцэл payment 2010 Economic development trend of Mongolia 23 Development core indicators of Mongolia until 2032 Economic real growth 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0 80000.0 30000.0 20000.0 10000.0 0.0 Per capita GDP / in thousand USD/ Total population, in thousand 5000.0 4000.0 60000.0 GDP, in Mln USD ( base year of 2005) 3000.0 40000.0 2000.0 20000.0 1000.0 0.0 0.0 GDP by core sectors in billion MNT agriculture manufacture service GDP in price of year • Core sectors that mostly contribute to GDP growth: • 2012-2016: iron ore exploration in line with Oyu tolgoi mining project • 2012-2017: coal exploration • 2012-2023: construction in line with mining and infrastructure creative development • 2012-2021: transportation and warehouses • 2015-2020: coking coal and refined oil production • 2018-2031: manufactures of computer and electronics items and electrical equipments Development challenges Economic issues • Inappropriate economic structure • Capacity of domestic market is low • Less development of infrastructure Social issues • Small population and limited work forces • Lack of highly skilled work force • Social psychology • Unemployment level, poverty, income unequal distribution, disparity between rich and poor Development challenges Governance issues • Higher government expenditure • Lack of capacity in public service; less consistency between government organizations, weaker system of accountability Politics issues • Weak fiscal discipline • Lack of stable and coherent macroeconomic policy • Political influence Environmental issues • Harsh weather condition, high dependent on weather changes, rapid desertification , sensitive ecosystem • Isolated and no direct access to sea Mongolian development trend up to 2030 30000.0 25000.0 ДНБ, 2005 оны зэрэгцүүлэх үнээр, тэрбум төгрөг 20000.0 15000.0 10000.0 5000.0 0.0 2012**2013**2014**2015**2016**2017**2018**2019**2020**2021**2022**2023**2024**2025**2026**2027**2028**2029**2030**2031** I. Stage: 2012-2016: Improved governance and infrastructure, built foundation of heavy industries, and final products of mineral resources will start to dominate in export. II. Stage: 2017-2021: Increased products of heavy industries, built foundation of chemical industries, and will starts to put initial effort into the knowledge based economy. III. Stage: 2022-2031: Increased products of chemical industries, to concentrate in knowledge based economy and products made by using of high technology and innovation will dominate in market. Objective Strategy 2012-2016 2017-2021 2022-2026 2027-2031 •Improved •Improved governance governance •Improved •Improved infrastructure, infrastructure, •Build •Build foundation foundation of of heavy heavy industries, industries, •Final •Final products products of of mineral mineral resources resources will will start start to to dominate dominate in in export. export. •Increased •Increased products products of of heavy heavy industries, industries, •build •build foundation foundation of of chemical chemical industries, industries, •Put •Put initial initial effort effort into into the the knowledge knowledge based based economy. economy. •Increased •Increased products products of of chemical chemical industries, industries, •to •to concentrate concentrate in in knowledge knowledge based based economy economy •Build •Build foundation foundation of of green green economy economy •products •products made made by by using using of of high high technology technology and and innovation innovation will will dominate dominate in in market. market. •Fully •Fully shift shift to to knowledge knowledge and and green green economy economy •Economic •Economic sustainable sustainable growth growth •Real •Real GDP GDPgrowth growth in in average average isis 15.8%. 15.8%. •• Per Per capita capita GDP GDPisis 12,000 12,000 USD USD •Real •Real GDP GDPgrowth growth in in average average isis 8%. 8%. •• Per Per capita capita GDP GDPisis 23,000 23,000 USD USD •Real •Real GDP GDPgrowth growth in in average average isis 6%. 6%. •• Per Per capita capita GDP GDPisis 39,000 39,000 USD USD •Real GDP growth in average is 5.5%. • Per capita GDP is 60,000 USD •Economic structure will be similar to the advanced economies Assumption of economic structure 120.0 Advanced economy by 2030: 100.0 80.0 46.3 47.9 49.5 46.4 48.6 51.3 53.6 55.3 56.9 – – – – 58.4 60.0 40.0 41.9 39.8 44.0 44.6 42.9 41.3 40.1 20.0 11.6 11.1 9.7 0.0 Services Үйлчилгээ 8.0 7.0 Manufactures Үйлдвэрлэл 6.1 5.8 5.4 39.1 4.8 4.5 Agriculture Хөдөө аж ахуй 38.1 36.5 4.0 3.5 Service sector 60%, Industry sector 37%, Agricultural sector 3%. Transit transport, banking and finance, trade and tourism sectors will intensively grow . III. Current situation of Science and Technology in Mongolia: 32 Current situation of science and technology in Mongolia During the transition period, the Government of Mongolia has made numerous attempts to attain a policy on S&T development, utilizing R&D results, enhancing industy’s role in S&T, and establishing a structure and legal environment that meets the global demand. Some of the major laws and regulations are: 1. S&T Masterplan 2007-2020, 2. National innovation system development program 2008-2015, 3. Millenium Development Goals-based Comprehensive National Development Strategy of Mongolia (2008-2021), 4. Research program of MUST (2007-2015), 5. Master plan of MUST (2008-2015), 6. Hightech industry policy of Mongolia (2010), 7. Innovation law (2012), 8. Venture capital law (in progress), 9. Technology program of Mongolia (in progress), Science and Technology in Mongolia • Mongolia has a tradition of respect for knowledge and wisdom. In great Chinggis Khaan's times people with knowledge and experience were summoned to "The counsel of sages". Later, in 1264, Chinggis's grandson Khubilai Khaan, founded the so-called "Institute of learned scholars", by which the concept of "Academy" was given to the world. • In 1921 "The Literary Committee" was established. It was the predecessor of the Mongolian Academy of Sciences (MAS) which was established in 1961. First university, the National University of Mongolia, founded in 1942 at Ulaanbaatar. Science and Technology in Mongolia • Today, external relations and cooperation with Mongolian science are expanding. Mongolia now cooperates with science and academic organisations in 20 countries such as the USA, Russia, Britain, China, Germany and Korea. • Since 1998 the Mongolian Parliament has been developing its own policy towards science by approving and implementing the Laws on Science and Technology and the Law on Transfer of Technology. • Mongolian scholars have achieved a big success in studying its history, language and culture, identifying peculiarities of its nature and climate, and investigating natural resources of the country, as well as in bringing new types of plants and new breeds of animals, diagnosing, treating and preventing different kinds of human and animal diseases. THE MONGOLIAN UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY: Main research fields and some examples • Research activities in Mining and Geology, • Textile (nanopowder coated textile) and cashmere technology, • Food engineering and Biotechnology (dairy and meat products), • Environmental studies (water research, water processing), • Information, communication technology, • Ecotechnology (using solar and wind energy). Nanotextile A) Coated with nanoparticles B) Normal textile Dairy technology research Coal-water suspension Ecofriendly house Issues in S&T sector of Mongolia We are trying to find out the right way to develop Governance-Research-Business cooperation. Main problems of our S&T sector are: - Research lack laboratory facilities, lack of funding for equipment, and tools, - Due to high concentration on purchase of imported technologies and equipment, industry is ignoring the knowledge and technologies of domestic R&D sector, - Mongolia is rich in natural and agricultural resources S&T sector plays little role in utilizing them, - The amount of funding for S&T sector is insufficient. - The policies of socio-economic and S&T development are not coordinated. We have strong wishes and duty of success in academic and cultural links to continue our 40 years of relationship between countries, institutions and people for longer time! Thank you for your attention!