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Environmental Kuznets Curve Public Opinion & Input Politics Johan Rock & Henrik Werenskiold EKC Theory • The relationship between environmental degradation and economical growth (GDP per capita) can be represented as an inverted U-shaped curve: Stern’s Regression Model (2003) lnE/Pit = i + yi + 1 lnGDP/Pit + 2 lnGDP/P2it + it P = population i = country t = time • There may be an inverted U-shaped relation between urban ambient concentrations of some pollutants and income though this should be tested with more rigorous time series or panel data methods. (2003) • Will this inverted U-shaped relation be stronger in democracies than authoritarian regimes? Our Regression Model lnE/Pit = i + yi + (dg + 1 lnGDP/Pit + (dg2 + 2 lnGDP/P2it + control variable + it P = population i = country t = time d = democracy/ non-democracy dummy variable • • • A dummy variable for democracy has been added to the regression model in order to investigate whether there is a distinction between democracies and non-democracies Is it possible to use a democracy index instead of dummy variable? Is it feasible to use oil production as a control variable? Mechanisms of the EKC • Transition from industrial to a service orientated economy. • Export of polluting industrial processes abroad. • Technological advances, generating less pollution • Higher awareness about the detrimental effects of pollution among voters. – Can the analysis confirm this? • MV preferences Data • Same data as used in the Stern investigation focusing on sulphur dioxide (SO2) concentrations in urban areas. i = 40 countries t = 40 years • Collecting data from World Value Survey (WVS) Critique • Non-democracy – data on emissions is more likely to be difficult to find and one would have to question its validity. • Non-democracies generally tend to be less affluent than democracies. Therefore we question whether authoritarian countries are rich enough to be included in the study. • The robustness of the EKC curve itself has been questioned by researchers.