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WASHINGTON EDUCATIONAL SERVICE DISTRICT NETWORK Data Coach STATS Boot Camp Data Coach Stats Boot Camp is designed to provide a brief survey of statistical concepts, with an emphasis on illustrating effect sizes and the foundations of statistical inference to help in making evidence based decisions for educational practices. Tentative Agenda Time 9:00 – 9:15 9:15 - 9:45 10:15 – 10:30 10:30 – 11:45 11:45 – 12:30 12:30 – 1:45 1:45 – 2:00 2:00 – 3:30 3:30- 4:00 Activity Welcome Data Harvesting Locating Accessing Descriptive Statistics Defining Terms Measures of Central Tendency Break Frequency Distribution Graphing Data Measures of Dispersion Standard Scores The Normal Distribution Lunch Evidence-Based Harvesting Reviewing the Literature Discovering Terms Break/Reading Effect Size + Standard Deviation Percentile + Improvement Index Correlation + Coefficient of Determination Closing Facilitator Sue Furth & Sue Feldman Todd Johnson Tara Richerson Todd Johnson Tara Richerson Todd Johnson Tara Richerson Todd Johnson Tara Richerson Sue Feldman DATA HARVESTING U.S. Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/ Ed Data Express: http://www.eddataexpress.ed.gov/ ED.gov Civil Rights Data Collection: http://ocrdata.ed.gov/ Revised: May 5, 2017 2 National Center for Education Statistics Data Tools: http://nces.ed.gov/datatools/ P-20 high school feedback reports: http://erdcdata.wa.gov/ OSPI Data Reports http://www.k12.wa.us/DataAdmin/default.aspx Revised: May 5, 2017 3 Washington Query Washington Query is a data management and reporting system that allows you to analyze data and create reports for the following assessments: HSPE. MSP. HSPB. MSPB. PORT. DAPE . WASL. WABA. and DAWL. https://eds.ospi.k12.wa.us COMING SOON!!! Statewide Longitudinal Data System (SLDS) K–12 Data and Reports http://www.k12.wa.us/Data/ Washington Achievement Data Explorer (WADE): Student Performance Across WA State http://www.cedr.us/WADE.html The BERC Group: College Tracking Data Services http://www.collegetracking.com/ WA State Advanced Placement(AP) Trend Data http://www.k12.wa.us/AdvancedPlacement/trenddata.aspx WA K-12 Enrollment, Staffing, and Finance displayed here are based on data from the Office of the Superintendent of Public Instruction School Apportionment and Financial Services. Reports provide school district-specific detail for enrollment, staffing, revenue, and expenditure categories. http://www.fiscal.wa.gov/k12.aspx WA Kids Count Data Center: Access profiles for many WA locations; rankings, maps, or trend graphs by topic; and raw data. Includes over 100 measures of child well-being, including the community-level data. http://datacenter.kidscount.org/ WA Healthy Youth Survey is Washington State's school based survey that measures health risk behaviors that contribute to morbidity, mortality, and social problems among youth. AskHYS.net is an online system designed to help you access, analyze and disseminate. http://www.askhys.net/layout.asp?page=reports/FactSheets http://reportcard.ospi.k12.wa.us/ http://reportcard.ospi.k12.wa.us/DataDownload.aspx Revised: May 5, 2017 4 EXERCISE: MATCHING STATS TERMS FOR THE DAY Number Jumbled 1 2 Descriptive statistics Effect size Answer (Number) Definition A number that indicates the strength and direction of the statistical association between two or more variables. A score in a set of scores or a frequency distribution that is typical or representative of all the scores. Measures of central tendency are the mean, median and mode. Standard score The bell-shaped curve that results from the graph of a normal frequency distribution. Correlation coefficient Methods and rules for organizing and interpreting quantitative observations. Inferential statistics The percent of participants who score at or below a particular score in a frequency distribution 6 Central Tendency Statistics used to describe, organize and summarize data. 7 Normal curve 8 Percent 9 Statistics 3 4 5 10 Intervention 11 Percentile 12 Frequency distribution The proportion of participants who obtain a particular score in a frequency distribution. A score that transforms an original or raw score into standard deviation units in order to locate the score’s position within a frequency distribution. The frequency of occurrence of scores in a set. The degree to which a practice, program or policy has an effect based on research results, measured in standard deviation units. Statistics used to make inferences about a population based on the scores obtained from a sample. A procedure, technique or strategy that is designed to modify an ongoing process Revised: May 5, 2017 5 THE NORMAL CURVE, PERCENTILES, AND SELECTED STANDARD SCORES Revised: May 5, 2017 6 EXERCISE (Remind me to show you accessing Reports) NWEA MAP DATA Descriptive Statistics Grade Measures of Central Tendency Reading Math Mean Median Mode SD Mean Median Mode SD 6 7 8 Gender Male Female Any there other measure(s) you need or feel are missing? STOP!!! Discussion EXERCISE: STATE ASSESSMENT DATA 1. For Washington State, how many SCHOOLS had students taking assessments last year for? Grade 6 ________ Grade 7 ________ Grade 8 ________ 2. For Washington State, how many STUDENTS were assessed in Reading for the following grade levels? Grade 6 ________ Grade 7 ________ Grade 8 ________ 3. Which ESD had the most Math Total MSP_HSPE Tested? 4. Which ESD had fewer than 23,000 students in Reading Total MSP_HSPE Tested? 5. Write your own question about the data and answer it here QUESTION: Answer: STOP!!! Discussion Revised: May 5, 2017 7 MATH - Frequency Distributions Identify two ESD’s you will work with ESD 1 MSP Level L1 L2 L3 L4 Frequency Relative Frequency ESD 2 (RF= fi/n) MSP Level L1 L2 L3 L4 Relative Frequency Frequency (RF= fi/n) Totals Complete your work on another Tab in the Spreadsheet if needed STOP!!! Discussion Write down three questions you can think of that these data could answer for you or others? Reflecting back on what have been done so far, what other data would you like to explore or have to help you in your data coaching? Revised: May 5, 2017 8 Standard Score: A way of representing performance on a test or some other measure so that persons familiar with the standard score know immediately how well the person did relative to others taking the same test. EXERCISE EasyCBM Data Descriptive Statistics Grade Mean Measures of Central Tendency Reading Math Median Mode SD Mean Median Mode SD 6 7 8 Gender Male Female STOP!!! Discussion Answer the following based on your data N Range (n) Low High Low Risk Level(n) Some High Reading_Comp_Score Math_Score Vocabulary_Score How did you address the missing student scores? What Percentile Score ranges would you recommend and why? Would these recommendations be different based on Grade Level and why? STOP!!! Discussion Revised: May 5, 2017 9 EVIDENCE-BASED HARVESTING Best Evidence Encyclopedia (BEE) http://www.bestevidence.org/ SAMHSA's National Registry o Evidence-based Programs and Practices SAMHSA's National Registry of Evidence-based Programs and Practices http://www.nrepp.samhsa.gov/ EFFECT SIZE: The degree to which a practice, program or policy has an effect based on research results, measured in standard deviation units. (Effect size is also referred to as practical significance.) Revised: May 5, 2017 10 National Center on Response to Intervention http://www.rti4success.org/ Meta-Analysis Database Understanding Marzano Research Laboratory's Action Research MetaAnalysis Database http://www.marzanoresearch.com/research/meta_analysis_database.aspx Revised: May 5, 2017 11 What Works Clearinghouse (WWC) http://ies.ed.gov/ncee/wwc/ ESD STATS TRANSLATOR EXCERCISES WWC Review of the Report “Enhancing the Effectiveness of Special Education Programming for Children with Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder Using a Daily Report Card” http://ies.ed.gov/ncee/wwc/SingleStudyReview.aspx?sid=10008 Study About Statistical Significance Found Grades Examined Topic Effect Size(ES) Improvement Index Percentile Increase Standard Deviation Coefficient of Determination WWC Review of the Report “Effects of Problem Based Economics on High School Economics Instruction” http://ies.ed.gov/ncee/wwc/SingleStudyReview.aspx?sid=10006 Study About Statistical Significance Found Grades Examined Topic Effect Size(ES) Improvement Index Percentile Increase Standard Deviation Coefficient of Determination WWC Review of the Report “Accommodations for English Language Learner Students: The Effect of Linguistic Modification of Math Test Item Sets” http://ies.ed.gov/ncee/wwc/SingleStudyReview.aspx?sid=10004 Study About Statistical Significance Found Grades Examined Topic Effect Size(ES) Improvement Index Percentile Increase Standard Deviation Coefficient of Determination Revised: May 5, 2017 12 Effective Research-Based High-Yield Instructional Strategies Marzano, et. al.1 (2000) identified ten research-based, effective instructional strategies that cut across all content areas and all grade levels. Each requires specific implementation techniques to produce the effect sizes reported, so their use requires learning to use them correctly. TASK: Use the ESD STATS Translator to find the missing values. 1. Comparing, contrasting, classifying, analogies, and metaphors (Identifying similarities and differences). These processes are connected as each requires students to analyze two or more elements in terms of their similarities and differences in one or more characteristics. This strategy has the greatest effect size on student learning. Techniques vary by age level. (Effect Size(ES)=1.61 or percentile points) 2. Summarizing and note-taking. To summarize is to fill in missing information and translate information into a synthesized, brief form. Note-taking is the process of students’ using notes as a work in progress and/or teachers’ preparing notes to guide instruction. (Effect Size(ES)= or 34 percentile points) 3. Reinforcing effort and providing recognition/giving praise. Simply teaching many students that added effort will pay off in terms of achievement actually increases student achievement more than techniques for time management and comprehension of new material. Praise, when recognizing students for legitimate achievements, is also effective. (Effect size=0.80 or 29 percentile points) 4. Homework and practice. These provide students with opportunities to deepen their understanding and skills relative to presented content. Effectiveness depends on quality and frequency of teacher feedback, among other factors. (Effect Size(ES)= 0.77 or percentile points) 5. Nonlinguistic representation. Knowledge is generally stored in two forms— linguistic form and imagery. Simple yet powerful non-linguistic instructional techniques such as graphic organizers, pictures and pictographs, concrete representations, and creating mental images improve learning. (Effect Size(ES)=0.75 or percentile points) 6. Cooperative learning. Effective when used right; ineffective when overused. Students still need time to practice skills and processes independently. (Effect Size(ES)=0.73 or percentile points) 7. Setting objectives and providing feedback. Goal setting is the process of establishing direction and purpose. Providing frequent and specific feedback related to learning objectives is one of the most effective strategies to increase student achievement. (Effect Size(ES)=0.61 or percentile points) 8. Generating and testing hypotheses. Involves students directly in applying knowledge to a specific situation. Deductive thinking (making a prediction about a future action or event) is more effective than inductive thinking (drawing conclusions based on information known or presented.) Both are valuable. (Effect Size(ES)= or percentile points) 9. Activating Prior Knowledge-Cues, questions. These strategies help students retrieve what they already know on a topic. Cues are straight-forward ways of activating prior knowledge; questions help students to identify missing information; advanced organizers are organizational frameworks presented. (Effect Size(ES)= or 22 percentile points) 1 Marzano, R., Gaddy, B., & Dean, C. (2000). What Works in Classroom Instruction. Aurora, CO. Mid-continent Research for Education and Learning. http://www.mcrel.org/pdf/instruction/5992tg_what_works.pdf Revised: May 5, 2017 13 REVIEW OF LITERATURE INTERVENTION Statistical Significance Found Grades Examined Topic Effect Size(ES) Improvement Index Percentile Increase Standard Deviation Coefficient of Determination Given the Interventions listed above, which one would you recommend and why? Given the interventions listed above, which one would you NOT recommend and why? ARTICLE: Chambers, b., Slavin, R., Madden, N. (2010). Small-group Computer Assisted Tutoring to improve Reading Outcomes for Struggling First and Second Graders. Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD. Retrieved Online June 13, 2012 from http://www.successforall.org/SuccessForAll/media/PDFs/Small-GroupComputer-assisted-Tutoring-ESJ.pdf Revised: May 5, 2017 14 BONUS DISCUSSION: Scenario You are working with a school that is implementing RTI. They have established a set of assessments, for each grade level that the teachers have agreed to use. The school has an RTI team that includes two Title I teachers, an intervention specialist, a special education teacher, the principal and an education assistant who tutors students in reading throughout the day. The RTI team facilitates CAST meetings for grade level teachers three times a year. These meetings are used to place students in tiered groups for reading. The process works like a well-oiled machine. Each teacher brings a spreadsheet to the meeting that has all their students’ test scores for the year. The team reviews the data and discusses each student’s next reading placement. During the spring round of CAST meetings, the teachers realized that they had not changed the shape of the curve for their students. In each grade level, the year had started with an average of seven students in tier I, the majority of students were in tier II and an average of four students in tier III. In tier II, some students had shifted positions but there was no real change in the shape of their student distribution. The principal noted that the RTI team did not talk about instruction. Instead they focused on test scores and placing students into reading groups. What happened in those groups was not a part of the conversation. The principal understood that classroom instruction was a sensitive topic and the teachers were not in the habit of planning together, discussing their instructional practices or observing each other’s classrooms. The principal is looking to the data coach to help establish a data-informed conversation about instructional practice. She believes that data will help keep the conversation more objective. She also wants her teachers to begin planning instruction together so when they share students, they will know what the students are doing in each of the tiered classrooms. As a data coach, How might you go about helping the RTI team explore instructional practices from a databased perspective? Revised: May 5, 2017 15 Data Informed Instructional Inquiry The process below is designed to support teachers using their student level data to determine an instructional activity they can test to produce their own local about knowledge about how effective a particular instructional activity is for accomplishing the hoped for effect. Use the following protocol to work through the student level data and design a local inquiry. 1. Identify the instructional concern 2. Determine which students the inquiry will be focused on 3. Identify the particular instructional target Using the effect size calculator determine the size of the effect that might be necessary to get students in a chosen grade to meet expectations. Looking at the range of students test scores, the mean, median and the mode choose one percentile group to focus the inquiry on. Given the chosen group of students, determine a discrete skill, concept, or behavior that will be taught. 4. Recalculate the effect size for the smaller group Using the effect size calculator determine how large an effect the instruction will need to have for the target students to reach expectation. 5. Per and Post Assessment Determine a per and post assessment that can be used to clarify where the group is starting from and whether the instructional strategy had an effect Looking at the collection of strategies with effect sizes., choose a strategy that has proven to likely produce the size of an effect that you want and develop an implementation plan 6. Instructional practice 7. Give the pre test 8. Implement the instructional plan 9. Give the post test Revised: May 5, 2017 16 Assessing Evidence-Based Programs and Practices (Hexagon Tool) - March, 20122 Capacity Staff meet min. qualifications Able to sustain Impact Drivers o Financially o Structurally Buy-in process operationalized o Practitioners o Families o Agency Need in school, district, state Academic & Socially Significant issues Parent and Community perceptions of need Data Indicating Need Fit with current Initiatives School, district, state priorities Organizational structures Community Values NEED CAPACITY TO IMPLEMENT INTERVENTION READINESS FOR REPLICATION Assessing EvidenceBased Programs and Practices FIT RESOURCE AVAILAILITY EVIDENCE Readiness Qualified purveyor Expert or TA available Mature sites to observe Several replications How well is it operationalized Are important Drivers operationalized? Resources and Supports for, Evidence Outcome = Is it worth it? Fidelity data Cost – Effectiveness data Number of studies Population similarities Diverse cultural groups Efficacy of effectiveness Curricula & Classroom Technology supports Staffing Training Data Systems Coaching & Supervision Administration & system Revised: May 5, 2017 17 Evidence-Based Planning2 NEED 5 Point rating Scale (High = 5 Medium = 3 Low = 1) Midpoints can be used and scored as a 2 or 4 Low Medium High 1 2 3 4 5 FIT 1 2 3 4 5 RESOURCES AVAILABILITY 1 2 3 4 5 EVIDENCE 1 2 3 4 5 READINESS FOR REPLICATION 1 2 3 4 5 CAPACITY TO IMPLEMENT 1 2 3 4 5 2 Assessing Evidence-Based Programs and Practices (Hexagon Tool)- March, 2012- State Implementation and Scaling up Evidence-based Practices (SISEP) Center FPG Child Development Institute, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill http://sisep.fpg.unc.edu/resources/assessing-evidence-based-programs-and-practices-hexagon-tool Revised: May 5, 2017 18 EXCEL CHEAT SHEET Function Description AVERAGE Returns the arithmetic mean and the specified numbers and takes the form =AVERAGE(number1,number2,…), where the numbers can be names, arrays, or references that resolve to numbers. Cells containing text, logical values, or empty cells are ignored, but cells containing a zero value are included. COUNTIF Counts the number of cells within a range that match specified criteria and takes the form =COUNTIF(range,criteria), where range is the range you want to test and criteria is the logical test to be performed on each cell. FREQUENCY Returns the number of times that values occur within a population and takes the form =FREQUENCY(data_array,bins_array). MEDIAN Computes the median of a set of numbers, takes the form =MEDIAN(number1,number2,…), and can accept up to 30 arguments, ignoring text, error values, and logical values. MODE Determines which value occurs most frequently in a set of numbers, takes the form =MODE(number1, number2,…), and can accept up to 30 arguments, ignoring text, error values, and logical values. PERCENTILE Returns the member of an input range that is at a specified percentile ranking and takes the form =PERCENTILE(array,k), where array is the input range and k is the rank you want to find. PERCENTRANK Returns a percential ranking for any member of a data set and takes the form =PERCENTRANK(array,x,significance), where array specifies the input range; x specifies the value whose rank you want to obtain; and the optional significance indicates the number of digits of precision you want. If significance is omitted, results are rounded to three digits (0.xxx or xx.x%). QUARTILE Returns the value in an input range that represents a specified quarter-percentile and takes the for =QUARTILE(array,quart). RANK Returns the ranked position of a particular number within a set of numbers and takes the form =RANK(number,ref,order). STANDARDIZE Returns a normalized value from a distribution characterized by mean and standard_dev and takes the form =STANDARDIZE(x,mean,standard_dev), where x is the value you want to normalize; mean is the arithmetic mean of the distribution; and standard_dev is the standard deviation of the distribution. STDEV Estimates standard deviation, assuming that the arguments represent only a sample of the total population, and takes the form =STDEV(number1,number2,…), accepting up to 30 arguments. VAR Computes variance, assuming that the arguments represent only a sample of the total population, and takes the form =VAR(number1,number2,…), accepting up to 30 arguments. Revised: May 5, 2017 19 TERMS FOR THE DAY 3 Action Research: A type of research in which educators examine their own practice and evaluate strategies to improve practice and education outcomes. Bivariate Correlation: A statistical correlation between two variables. Central Tendency: A score in a set of scores or a frequency distribution that is typical or representative of all the scores. Measures of central tendency are the mean, median and mode. Coefficient of determination: For bivariate correlations, the coefficient of determination is defined as r2, which is interpreted as the proportion of variation in the scores that is explained by the relationship between the variables. Note: Correlations indicate statistical, not causal, relationships. Confidence interval: A range of values that indicates the confidence or probability of observing a particular score or value in a population, usually expressed as standard deviation units above and below the mean. Correlation coefficient: A number indicating strength & direction of the statistical association between 2 or more variables. Descriptive statistics: Statistics used to describe, organize and summarize data. Effect size: The degree to which a practice, program or policy has an effect based on research results, measured in standard deviation units. (Effect size is also referred to as practical significance.) A statistic commonly used to measure effect size is Cohen’s d, which social scientists interpret as the following: d = .2, small; d = .5 to .8, medium; and d = .8 and higher, large. Frequency distribution: The frequency of occurrence of scores in a set. Frequency distributions can be represented in graphs or tables. Inferential statistics: Statistics used to make inferences about a population based on the scores obtained from a sample. Inferential statistics are based on the mathematics of probability theory, ex., t, F and Chi Square. Intervention: A procedure, technique or strategy that is designed to modify an ongoing process. In research studies, the intervention also is referred to as a treatment. Most interventions in education are designed to modify directly or indirectly the student-learning process. Mean: In general, the average score in a set of scores or frequency distribution, calculated as the sum of the scores divided by the number of scores. Median: The middle score in a set of scores or frequency distribution such that 50% of the scores are at or below the median score. Mode: The most frequent score in a set of scores or a frequency distribution. N (n): The number of scores in a population (N) or a sample (n) of scores. 3 Education Commission of the States (ECS) and Mid-continent Research for Education and Learning(McREL) (2004, February) A Policymaker’s Primer on Education Research: How To Understand, Evaluate and Use. Retrieved online June 13, 2012 http://www.ecs.org/html/educationIssues/Research/primer/understandingtutorial.asp Revised: May 5, 2017 20 Normal curve: The bell-shaped curve that results from the graph of a normal frequency distribution. Normal distribution: A symmetrical frequency distribution in which the scores form a bell-shaped curve, and the mean, median and mode have the same value. Percent: The proportion of participants who obtain a particular score in a frequency distribution. Percentile: The percent of participants who score at or below a particular score in a frequency distribution (also referred to as percentile rank). Population: All individuals or entities belonging to the group that is being studied. Practical significance: The degree to which a practice, program or policy has enough of an effect to justify its adoption. Practical significance usually is measured with statistics that calculate effect sizes. Range: The difference between the highest and lowest score in a set of scores or frequency distribution. Raw score: An original score on a test or other measuring instrument prior to any score transformations. Sample: A subset of individuals or entities from a population. Standard deviation: A measure of the variability of the scores in a set of scores or a frequency distribution, equivalent to the average distance of the scores from the mean. Standard score: A score that transforms an original or raw score into standard deviation units in order to locate the score’s position within a frequency distribution. Standard scores also are known as z-scores and are calculated as: z = Raw Score – Mean /Standard Deviation. Sign of the score (plus or minus) indicates whether it is above or below the mean. Statistically significant: A result that has a low probability (e.g., 5 %) of occurring by chance. Because it is unlikely that a statistically significant result has occurred by chance, the result is said to reflect non-chance factors in the study, such as the effects of a treatment. Statistics: Methods and rules for organizing and interpreting quantitative observations. References and Resources Cooper, H. (1998). Synthesizing research: A guide for literature reviews (3rd ed.). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications. Creswell, J.W. (2002). Research design: Qualitative, quantitative and mixed method approaches. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications. Isaac S. & Michael, W. B. (1995). Handbook in research and evaluation (3rd ed.). San Diego: EdITS. Gravetter, F. J. and Wallnau, L. B. (1988). Statistics for the behavioral sciences (2nd ed.). St. Paul: West Publishing. McMillan, J. H. (2000). Educational research: Fundamentals for the consumer (3rd ed.). New York: Addison Wesley Longman. Shadish, W. R., Cook, T.D. and Campbell, D. T. (2002). Experimental and quasi-experimental designs for causal inference. Boston: Houghton Mifflin. Shanahan, T. (2000). "Research synthesis: Making sense of the accumulation of knowledge in reading." In M. L. Kamil, P.B. Mosenthal, P. D. Pearson, and R. Barr (Eds.), Handbook of reading research, volume III (pp. 209–226). Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum and Associates Weiss, C. H. (1998). Evaluation: Methods for studying programs and policies (2nd ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall. Revised: May 5, 2017 21