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WEATHER And FORECASTING WEATHER AND CLIMATE •Weather is defined as the state of the atmosphere at some place and time, usually expressed in terms of temperature, air pressure, humidity, wind speed and direction, precipitation, and cloudiness. Meteorologists study weather. •Climate is defined in terms of the average of weather elements (such as temperature and precipitation) over a specified period of time (30 years according to the World Meteorological Organization). It is normal for the weather to change on a daily or even hourly basis. But when the average pattern over many years changes, it is a sign of climate change. Image source: http://www.weather.com. WEATHER AND CLIMATE The Climate and Weather of a region can be determined through certain measurable properties such as: a.) atmospheric temperature, b.) humidity, c.) type and amount of precipitation, d.) cloudiness, e.) wind speed and direction, and f.) air pressure •At high temperatures molecules expand, become less dense and thus go up; while at low temperatures, molecules contract, become more dense and sink. •Because warm air is less dense, it advances upward and the cooler and denser air mass stays below it. •As the warm air rises, the moisture condenses and forms thin clouds, then continues to form other kinds of cloud at different altitudes. •Slowly, the clouds will thicken and the area below it will have dark, cloudy days or showers. •As the clouds further thicken, it will become heavier, sink to a lower altitude and eventually fall down as well. •A warm front usually produces light to moderate precipitation over an area, because it advances very slowly. On the other hand, a cold front advances more rapidly and forcefully than a warm front. These forceful movement causes violent weathers such as thunderstorms. •Because cold air mass is denser than warm air mass, it advances at a low altitude, meaning, it keeps close to the ground while it moves. We have extremely bad or violent weather such as, tornadoes, which form over land, and cyclones, which form over oceans and travel over land. Most cyclones originate from the large oceans where an abundant supply of moist air comes from. Centers of low pressure that travel from west to east across the Earth and which last for few days or a week. Those cyclones that come from the Atlantic ocean are called HURRICANES, and from the Pacific oceans called TYPHOONS, and those from the Western Pacific are called STORMS. Thunderstorms occur when a large mass of cold air slides under a large mass of warm air. Heavy rains come down very quickly. Flashes of lightning are also often seen during a thunderstorm. Lightning is basically an electrical charge released into the atmosphere. A tornado is a funnel of strong winds that spiral upward. They can reach very high speeds and be very powerful. Tornadoes can destroy trees, houses, and other large objects. A hurricane is a very large and often violent tropical storm. Hurricanes can be hundreds of kilometers wide and the winds of one of these storms can be very fast. Hurricanes form over the ocean and are made up of swirling winds. They usually produce a lot of rain. A blizzard is a heavy snowstorm with strong winds. Blizzards produce heavy snowfalls. WEATHER AND CLIMATE Image Credit: NASA 2009-2010 Eastern US “Snowmageddon” 2010 Northern Pakistan Floods Image Credit: NOAA 2010-2011 Texas’s Worst Drought and Fire Season in Recorded History 2012 Hurricane Sandy Group A- HUMID TROPICAL- does not have any winter season. Each month has an average temperature of 18˚Celcius. e.g.: Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia Group B- DRY CLIMATE- there is more evaporation than precipitation; found on Arid or Semi- arid regions. e.g.: Egypt and countries in Middle East Group C- HUMID MIDDLE LATITUDE CLIMATES WITH MILD WINTERS- the average temperature of the coolest month is of 18˚C but above - 3˚C. e.g.: Florida and CA Group C- HUMID MIDDLE LATITUDE CLIMATES WITH SEVERE WINTERS- average temperature of the coolest month is below- 3˚C, and an average temperature that exceeds 10˚C during its warmest month. e.g.: Chicago and Michigan Group E- POLAR CLIMATE- occurs at the pole and extremely cold. The average temperature during its warmest month is below 10˚C. e.g.: Antarctic and Arctic Regions. WEATHER AND CLIMATE •Meteorologists focus primarily on real-time (current) data to predict local or regional atmospheric conditions for the hours, days, or weeks ahead. Thus, weather prediction tends to be more local and relates to conditions in the immediate future from days to weeks. •Climate scientists, on the other hand, look at atmospheric conditions in terms of averages and trends (patterns) that have occurred over many decades, centuries, and millennia. WEATHER AND CLIMATE Weather is variable, but can be averaged over time to indicate climate trends. Therefore, climate scientists can use weather data plus proxy data to help them identify previous trends to improve their predictions of future trends. What Are Proxy Data? Proxy data include biological, cryological (which refers to frozen water), geological, and historical records that scientists use to deduce Earth’s atmospheric conditions in the distant past. By examining evidence such as the tree rings of old-growth trees and ice core samples taken from glaciers, scientists can figure out what Earth’s temperature, greenhouse gas composition, and precipitation levels were like over the course of its geologic history. WEATHER AND CLIMATE Weather balloons, satellites, specially designed airplanes, and radar and other ground-based data collection instruments are used to • measure wind speed, • precipitation, • air temperature, • humidity levels, etc. Reliable records have been kept since 1800s and provide accurate weather forecasts (weekly and daily). Sophisticated Earth-observing satellites equipped with remote-sensing equipment circle the globe to • record sea surface and other temperatures, • measure atmospheric gases and rainfall amounts, • take visible and infrared photos of Earth’s surface, and • calculate Earth’s outgoing infrared and reflected solar radiation.