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Directions: SHOW YOUR WORK. Include the items discussed in class (PHATC steps; include original claim, the null hypothesis, the alternative hypothesis, a graph, test statistic, critical values, etc.) and write a conclusive statement regarding the claim. 1. A researcher wants to check the claim that convicted burglars spend an average of 18.7 months in jail. She takes a random sample of 11 such cases from court files and finds that X = 21.2 months and s = 7.1 months. Assume the population is normal. a) Test the null hypothesis that = 18.7 at the 0.05 significance level. = average amount of time spent in jail Original Claim: 18.7 H 0 : 18.7 H a : 18.7 SRS Population normal (given) is unknown = t distribution 21.2 18.7 = 1.17; p-value = tcdf (1.17, 1000,10) = .27 which is not less than .05. 7.1 11 Fail to reject H 0 . There is not sufficient evidence to warrant rejection of the claim that the mean is 18.7 months. t b) What is a type I error in this scenario? Rejecting 18.7 when in fact 18.7 is true. 2. A manufacturer makes steel rods that are supposed to have a mean length of 50 cm. A retailer claims that the bars are running long. A sample of 40 bars is taken and their mean length is determined to be X = 51 cm with a standard deviation of s = 3.6. a) Test the retailer’s claim that <50 cm at the 1 percent significance level. = average mean length of steel rods in cm. Original Claim: 50 H 0 : 50 H a : 50 SRS n>30 is unknown = t distribution 51 50 =1.76; p-value = .043 is not less than .01 so Fail to Reject H 0 . There is not 3.6 40 sufficient evidence to support the claim that the mean length is greater than 50 cm. t b) What is a type II error in this scenario? Failing to reject an untrue H 0 . That is, we do not reject 50 when in fact 50 . 3. In a sample of 164 children selected randomly from one town, it is found that 36 of them suffer from asthma. a) At the 0.05 significance level, test the claim that the proportion of all children in the town who suffer from asthma is 11%. Original claim: p = .11 p = proportion of children who suffer from asthma. H 0 : p = .11 H a : p .11 36 pˆ =.2195 164 SRS 2NIP Np = (164) (.2195)=35.998>5 and Nq = (164)(.7805)=128.002>5 .2195 .11 =4.48; pvalue (find by looking up 4.48 in Table A-2 and subtracting z (.11)(.7805) 164 from 1) = .0000739<.05. Reject H 0 and conclude there is sufficient evidence to warrant rejection of the claim that the proportion of all children who suffer is 11%. b) What is Type I error in this scenario? Rejection a true H 0 ; that is, rejecting p = .11 in favor of p .11 when in fact p = .11 is true. c) What is the probability of a Type I error in this scenario? P(Type I Error) = .05. 4. A researcher claims that the amounts of acetaminophen in a certain brand of cold tablets have a mean different from the 600 mg claimed by the manufacturer. The mean acetaminophen content for a random sample of n = 49 tablets is 604.2mg with a population standard deviation of 4.2 mg. a) Test this claim at the 0.02 level of significance. =the mean amount of acetaminophen in a tablet. Original Claim: 50 H 0 : 600 H a : 600 SRS n>30 is known = z distribution 604.2 600 =7.00; pvalue is .0001, multiply this by 2 gives you .0002. Critical 4.2 49 Values are 2.33 . Reject the H 0 ; There is sufficient evidence to support the claim that the mean acetaminophen content is different than 600 mg. z b) What is a Type II error in this scenario? Failing to Reject a bad (untrue) H 0 . That is, not rejecting 600 when in fact 600 is true. 5. A manufacturer makes ball bearings that are normally distributed and are supposed to have a mean weight of 30 g. A retailer suspects that the mean weight is actually less than 30g. The mean weight for a random sample of 16 ball bearings is 29.5 g with a standard deviation of 4.3 g. At the 0.05 significance level, test the claim that the mean is less than 30g. = mean weight of ball bearings Original Claim: 50 H 0 : 30 H a : 30 SRS N is not greater than 30, but the population is normally distributed, so the sample is, too. is unknown = t distribution 29.5 30 = -.47; p-value = .3226; Fail to Reject H 0 . There is not sufficient evidence 4.3 16 to support the claim that the mean length is less than 30g. t 6. A light-bulb manufacturer advertises that the average life for its light bulbs is 900 hours. A random sample of 15 of its light bulbs resulted in the following lives in hours: 995 590 510 539 739 917 571 555 916 728 664 693 708 887 849 At the 10% significance level, do the data provide evidence that the mean life for the company’s light bulbs differs from the advertised mean? = mean life in hours of light bulbs Original Claim: 900 H 0 : 900 H a : 900 SRS N is not greater than 30, and we don’t know if the population is normal; proceed with caution. is unknown = t distribution 724.06 900 = -4.342; p-value = .000676; Reject H 0 . There is sufficient evidence to 156.92 15 reject the claim that the mean life for light bulbs is equal to 900 hours. t 7. According to a recent poll, 53% of Americans would vote for the incumbent president. If a random sample of 100 people results in 45% who would vote for the incumbent, test the claim that the actual percentage is 53%. Use a 0.10 significance level. Original claim: p = .53 p = proportion of people who vote for an incumbent president. H 0 : p = .53 H a : p .53 p̂ .45 SRS 2NIP Np = (100) (.45)=45 >5 and Nq = (100)(.55)=55 >5 .45 .53 = -1.60; Critical Values: 1.645 ; 2 * pvalue = 2(.0548)=.1096 which is z (.53)(.55) 100 not less than .05. Fail to reject H 0 and conclude there is not sufficient evidence to warrant rejection of the claim that the proportion of people who vote for an incumbent president is 53%. 8. In test of a computer component, it is found that the mean time between failures is 937 hours. A modification is made which is supposed to increase reliability by increasing the time between failures. Tests on a sample of 36 modified components produce a mean time between failures of 983 hours, with a population standard deviation of 52 hours. At the 0.01 level of significance, test the claim that for the modified components, the mean time between failures is greater than 937 hours. =the mean time between failures in computer components. Original Claim: 937 H 0 : 537 H a : 537 SRS n>30 is known = z distribution 983 937 = 5.31; Critical Value is 2.33; pvalue is .0001, multiply this by 2 to get 52 36 .0002. Reject the H 0 ; There is sufficient evidence to support the claim that the mean time between failure sin computer components is not 537 hours. z 9. A large software company gives job applicants a test of programming ability and the mean for that test has been 160 in the past. 25 job applicants are randomly selected from one large university and they produce a mean score and standard deviation of 183 and 12, respectively. Use a 0.05 level of significance to test the claim that this sample comes from a normal population with a mean score greater than 160. = mean score on test Original Claim: 160 H 0 : 160 H a : 160 SRS N is not greater than 30, but the population is normally distributed, so the sample is, too. is unknown = t distribution 183 160 = 9.583; p-value = .0001; Reject H 0 . There is sufficient evidence to 12 25 support the claim that the mean score on the test is greater than 160. t 10. A brochure claims that the average maximum height a certain type of plant is 0.7m. A gardener suspects that this estimate is not accurate locally due to soil conditions. A random sample of 42 mature plants is taken. The mean height of the plants in the sample is 0.65 m with a population standard deviation of 0.2m. Test the claim made in the brochure at the 1 percent level of significance. = the average height of a certain plant. Original Claim: .7 H 0 : .7 H a : .7 SRS n>30 is known = z distribution .65 .7 = -1.62; Critical Values are 2.575 ; pvalue = 2(.0526) = .1052; Fail to .2 42 reject the H 0 ; There is not sufficient evidence to reject the claim that the mean height of a certain plant is .7. z 11. To judge certain safety features of a car, an engineer must test the claim that the reaction time of drivers to a given emergency situation has a standard deviation of more than 0.010 seconds. What can she conclude at the 0.05 level of significance if she gets s = 0.014 for a sample of size n = 15? Assume the population is normally distributed. = standard deviation of reaction time to an emergency in seconds Claim: .01 H 0 : .01 H a : .01 SRS Population is normal 14 (.014) 2 =27.44; pvalue = 2 cdf(27.44, 1000, 14) = .04999 < .05; Reject Ho and = 2 (.010) conclude that .01 . Critical Value is: 23.685 and it’s a right tailed test. 2 12. The specifications for the mass production of certain springs require that the standard deviation of their compressed lengths be less than 0.040 cm. If a random sample of size n = 35 from a certain production lot yields s = 0.053 and the probability of a Type I error is not to exceed 0.01, does this constitute evidence for the null or for the alternative hypothesis? Assume the population is normal. = standard deviation of compressed lengths Claim: .04 H 0 : .04 H a : .04 SRS Population is normal 34 (.053) 2 =59.69; pvalue = 2 cdf(0, 59.69, 34) = .9958 is not less than .05; Fail to 2 (.04) reject Ho and conclude there is insufficient evidence to conclude that .04 . Critical Value is: 14.954 and it’s a left tailed test. 2 =