Download Lecture 5.1: A Rationale for Demand

WATER TRANSFORMED
SUSTAINABLE WATER SOLUTIONS FOR
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION
MODULE C: INTEGRATED WATER
RESOURCE PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT
This online textbook provides free access to a comprehensive education and training package that
brings together the knowledge of how countries, specifically Australia, can adapt to climate change.
This resource has been developed through support from the Federal Government’s Department of
Climate Change’s Climate Change Adaptation Professional Skills program.
CHAPTER 5: INTEGRATED WATER RESOURCE
PLANNING IN A CHANGING CLIMATE - WATER
SUPPLY AND DEMAND MANAGEMENT
LECTURE 5.1: A RATIONALE FOR DEMAND MANAGEMENT TO
ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE.
© The Natural Edge Project (‘TNEP’), 2010
Copyright of this material (Work) is owned by the members of The Natural Edge Project, based at Griffith University and
the Australian National University.
The material contained in this document is released under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. According to
the License, this document may be copied, distributed, transmitted and adapted by others, providing the work is
properly attributed as: ‘Smith, M. (2010) Water Transformed: Sustainable Water Solutions for Climate Change
Adaptation, Australian National University, Griffith University, The Natural Edge Project.’
Document is available electronically at http://www.naturaledgeproject.net/Sustainable_Water_Solutions_Portfolio.aspx.
Acknowledgements
The Work was produced by The Natural Edge Project supported by funding from the Australian Government
Department of Climate Change under its ‘Climate Change Adaptation Skills for Professionals Program’. The
development of this publication has been supported by the contribution of non-salary on-costs and administrative
support by the Griffith University Urban Research Program, under the supervision of Professor Brendan Gleeson, and
the Australian National University Fenner School of Environment and Society and Engineering Department, under the
supervision of Professor Stephen Dovers.
Chief Investigator and Project Manager: Mr Karlson ‘Charlie’ Hargroves, Research Fellow, Griffith University.
Principle Researcher and Author: Dr Michael Smith, Research Fellow, ANU Fenner School of Environment and Society.
Peer Review
This lecture has been peer reviewed by Professor Stuart White, Director, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of
Technology, Sydney. Dr Matthew Inman, Urban Systems Program, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, CSIRO.
Anntonette Joseph, Director – Urban Water Efficiency Initiatives, Commonwealth Department of Environment, Water,
Heritage and the Arts. Harriet Adams - Urban Water Efficiency Initiatives, Commonwealth Department of Environment,
Water, Heritage and the Arts. Bevan Smith, Senior Project Officer (WaterWise) Recycled Water and Demand
Management, Queensland Government, Department of Natural Resources and Water.
Review for this module was also received from: Chris Davis, Institute of Sustainable Futures, University of Technology;
Professor Stephen Dovers - Director, Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australia National University; Alex
Fearnside, Sustainability Team Leader, City of Melbourne; Associate Professor Margaret Greenway, Griffith University;
Fiona Henderson, CSIRO Land and Water; Dr Matthew Inman, Urban Systems Program, CSIRO Sustainable
Ecosystems, CSIRO; Dr Declan Page, CSIRO Land and Water; Dr Gurudeo Anand Tularam, Griffith University;
Associate Professor Adrian Werner, Associate Professor of Hydrogeology, Flinders University; Professor Stuart White,
Institute of Sustainable Futures, UTS.
Disclaimer
While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure that the contents of this publication are factually correct, the parties
involved in the development of this document do not accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the
contents. Information, recommendations and opinions expressed herein are not intended to address the specific
circumstances of any particular individual or entity and should not be relied upon for personal, legal, financial or other
decisions. The user must make its own assessment of the suitability of the information or material contained herein for
its use. To the extent permitted by law, the parties involved in the development of this document exclude all liability to
any other party for expenses, losses, damages and costs (whether losses were foreseen, foreseeable, known or
otherwise) arising directly or indirectly from using this document.
This document is produced for general information only and does not represent a statement of the policy of the
Commonwealth of Australia. The Commonwealth of Australia and all persons acting for the Commonwealth preparing
this report accept no liability for the accuracy of or inferences from the material contained in this publication, or for any
action as a result of any person’s or group’s interpretations, deductions, conclusions or actions in relying on this
material.
Enquires should be directed to:
Dr Michael Smith, Research Fellow, Australian National University, Fenner School of Environment and Society, CoFounder and Research Director 2002-2010, The Natural Edge Project, Contact Details at
http://fennerschool.anu.edu.au/people/academics/smithmh.php
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Water Transformed: Sustainable Water Solutions
Integrated Water Resource Planning in a
Changing Climate – Water Supply and Demand
Management.
Lecture 5.1: A Rationale for Demand Management to Adapt
to Climate Change.
Educational Aim
Lecture 5.1 reviews the climate change science to see how it is going to affect water supply and
demand. Lecture 5.1 shows that changes in water availability and demand for water from climate
change will have a significant effect on the scale and timing of supply-demand gaps for water
utilities. The global water industry has great expertise in increasing supply options to manage this
supply/demand gap. But the global water industry is now experiencing a growing need to better
understand and manage the demand for water as part of an integrated resource planning
framework. Specifically, practitioners need new skills in understanding how to develop, implement
and evaluate demand management programs. This lecture provides a rationale for water utilities
and water planners to adopt a portfolio approach to demand management to underpin strategies
for the water sector to adapt to climate change. Lecture 5.2, which follows, then provides detailed
training on how to implement a successful portfolio approach to demand management.
Key Learning Points
1. Water utilities, and the governments which regulate them, are responsible for ensuring that the
supply of water meets demand. Historically, the traditional method of ensuring that rising
demand for water was met was through building more centralized infrastructure: dams and
reservoirs, pipelines and water treatment plants. This approach has brought tremendous
benefits to billions of people, but it has also had serious social, economical, and ecological
costs.1
2. Dams, inter basin transfers and water withdrawals for irrigation have fragmented 60 per cent
of the world’s rivers. By the end of the 20th century, there were over 45,000 dams in over 150
countries. Negative impacts on natural habitat are significant. For instance, dams and water
withdrawals have destroyed the free-flowing river ecosystems to the point that 20 % of all
freshwater fish species are now threatened or endangered.2 The landmark 2000 report from
the World Commission on Dams3 (WCD) showed in detail that simply damming more rivers is
a financially, socially and environmentally costly and environmentally unsustainable way to
meet future water needs.
1
World Commission on Dams (2000) Dams and Development: A New Framework for Decision-making, The Report of the World
Commission on Dams, Earthscan, London.
Gleick, P. (2009) Three Gorges Dam Project, Yangtze River, China – Water Briefing. The Pacific Institute. At
http://www.worldwater.org/data20082009/WB03.pdf accessed 9 February 2010
2
Ricciardi, A., Rasmussen, J.B. (1999) Extinction rates of North American freshwater fauna. Conservation Biology, pp. 1,220–22
3
World Commission on Dams (2000) Dams and Development: A New Framework for Decision-making, The Report of the World
Commission on Dams, Earthscan, London .
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Water Transformed: Sustainable Water Solutions
3. Now, with climate change reducing and altering rainfall patterns, this highly centralized
approach, which relies on rain falling in relatively small dammed water catchments, cannot
guarantee adequate future water supplies for rising populations. Other centralised water
supply options like desalination, whilst available to some, or not an economically viable option
for many landlocked countries. Desalination also tends to use more energy and emit more
greenhouse gas emissions per litre of water produced than either water from dams or other
water treatment and recycling options. These are major challenges facing water utilities in the
21st century which are going to change the way water utilities manage and supply water
resources.
4. The IPCC 4th Assessment notes that climate change will lead to “changes in all components of
freshwater system”. According to the IPCC,
Globally, the negative impacts of future climate change on freshwater systems are
expected to outweigh the benefits (high confidence). By the 2050s, the area of land
subject to increasing water stress due to climate change is projected to be more than
double that with decreasing water stress. Areas in which runoff is projected to decline face
a clear reduction in the value of the services provided by water resources. Increased
annual runoff in some areas is projected to lead to increased total water supply. However,
in many regions, this benefit is likely to be counterbalanced by the negative effects of
increased precipitation variability and seasonal runoff shifts in water supply, water quality
and flood risks.4
5. This has important implications for the planning of water supply and demand management in
the 21st century. Regions of Australia, California, the Middle East, Africa, and the
Mediterranean are already dealing with scarce water resources in both urban and rural
environments. Since climate change will reduce water supply and quality whilst increasing
demand in many regions of the world, this will put pressure on water utility’s infrastructure to
be able to meet rising demand.
6. There is now a rapidly growing body of literature which recommends a more sophisticated
approach to meeting water needs focused on an integrated approach of water efficiency,
demand management5 and supply augmentation through decentralised approaches to water
reuse and recycling such as rainwater and stormwater harvesting. This is referred to as the
“soft path” to meeting society’s future water needs. As Dr Peter Gleick, explains:
The soft path for water strives to improve the productivity of water use rather than seek
endless sources of new supply. It delivers water services and qualities matched to users’
needs, rather than just delivering quantities of water. It applies economic tools such as
markets and pricing, but with the goal of encouraging efficient use, equitable distribution of
the resource, and sustainable system operation over time. And it includes local
communities in decisions about water management, allocation, and use.6
7. This approach is increasingly being taken by water utilities and water planners, not just
because it will help adapt to climate change, but because it is increasingly being seen as best
4
Bates, B.C., Kundzewicz, Z., Wu, S., and Palutikof, J. (Eds) (2008) Climate Change and Water. Technical Paper of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Secretariat, Geneva. at http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/technical-papers/climate-changewater-en.pdf accessed 04 March 2010
5
Lemmen, D.S., and Warren, E. J. (eds) 2004 Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: A Canadian Perspective. National Resources
Canada. Ottowa. Ontario.
6
Gleick, P. (2002) Soft water paths. Nature 418:373
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Water Transformed: Sustainable Water Solutions
practice. Detailed studies suggest that pursuing this “soft path” will cost much less globally
than trying to continue the “hard path” of simply building more dams and desalination plants.
8. The most cited estimate of the cost of meeting future infrastructure needs for water is US$180
billion per year to 2025 for water supply, sanitation, and wastewater treatment.7 This figure is
based on the assumption that future global demand for water and water-related services will
reach the level of industrialized nations and that centralized and expensive water supply and
treatment infrastructure will have to provide it. If we focus instead on meeting basic human
needs for water with the soft path, the cost instead could be in the range of US$10 billion to
US$25 billion per year for the next two decades—a far more achievable level of investment.8
The soft path is so much cheaper because of its emphasis on first cutting rising demand for
water through a focus on water efficiency. The soft path is also so much cheaper because of
the use of many small de-centralised water recycling systems to augment supply instead of
large centralised and expensive dams. Decentralised water recycling systems are smaller
than centralised systems and thus have both lower up-front costs (See Figures 5.1.3) and
shorter construction time reducing the cost of tying up capital unproductively or needing to rely
on loans from banks.
9. A number of municipal water suppliers have implemented a suite of aggressive water
conservation programs and achieved remarkable results cost effectively. Jerusalem, Israel;
Mexico City, Mexico; Los Angeles, California; Beijing, China; Singapore; Boston,
Massachusetts; Waterloo, Canada; Bogor, Indonesia; and Melbourne, Australia have all
achieved reductions in water demand varying from 10 to 30 %.9 Sydney Water has achieved
1970 levels of per capita water usage in Sydney through its demand management programs.
In 2009, Cooley et al reported that Seattle, USA since the 1990s has reduced per capita water
usage by 35 per cent.10 These examples show the effectiveness of water efficiency and
demand management approaches.
10. The world is in the midst of a major transition in water resource development, management,
and planning. This transition is long overdue. The shift from traditional approaches to meeting
society’s water needs through the construction of massive infrastructure in the form of dams,
aqueducts, pipelines, and complex centralized treatment plants is giving way to a more
sophisticated “soft path” approach. Taking a more sophisticated approach to demand
management and alternative supply augmentation through water recycling will not only help
the water supply sector adapt to climate change but also address a wide range of other
challenges. These include, for instance, increasing population, economic activity, and other
water needs, such as restoring environmental flows to rivers and wetlands; all of which are
increasing the demand for limited water resources. Also, this shift will help water utilities
address the fact that community attitudes have shifted dramatically against the damming of
rivers over the last three decades. Hence Module C, builds on from Module B, and seeks to
7
Cosgrove, W., and Rijsberman, F. (2000) A Water Secure World: Report of the World Commission for Water in the 21st Century.
Chapter 4: Framework for Action. World Water Council, London, at
www.worldwatercouncil.org/Vision/Documents/CommissionReport.pdf accessed March 3 2010
8
Water Supply and Sanitation Collaborative Council (2000) Vision 21: A Shared Vision for Hygiene, Sanitation, and Water Supply.
Water Supply and Sanitation Collaborative Council. at www.worldwatercouncil.org/Vision/Documents/VISION21FinalDraft.PDF
accessed 3 March 2010
9
Postel, S. (1997) Last Oasis: Facing Water Scarcity.W. W. Norton. New York
10
Cooley, H., Gleick, P. (2009) Urban Water Use Efficiencies: Lessons from United States Cities in Gleick, P. (2008-2009) The World’s
Water:The Biennial Report on Freshwater Resources. The Pacific Institute.
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Water Transformed: Sustainable Water Solutions
provide a step by step guide on how to find win-win approaches to simultaneously address
these multiple challenges profitably for the water sector.
Brief Background Reading
Understanding the Impacts of Climate Change on Water Supply and Demand
As explained in the Key Learning Points, climate change in most cases will reduce water
availability and lead to increasing demands for water. Hence all major water utilities and
governments now need to examine the impacts of climate change for the major components of
freshwater systems – surface water, groundwater, water quality, hydrology, and water demand as part of their planning. Hence we first consider here, in detail, how climate change will affect
these major components and reference a wide range of literature to assist water planners
developing climate change adaptation strategies.
Climate Change Will Affect Surface Water
Climate change is expected to change the quantity and timing of surface water run-off. While
increased run-off can be expected throughout the tropics and higher latitudes, the dry tropical and
mid-latitude regions will experience reduced run-off. Timings will also be impacted: summer flows
will be reduced and winter flows increased, with earlier peak flows.11 This is reflected in the
majority of models, which also point to reductions in precipitation and increases in evaporation
impacting significantly on the security, quantity and quality of urban water supplies and key
catchments across Australia. (Table 5.1.1)
Table 5.1.1 Climate Change Impacts on Rainfall and Run-Off
Year
Climate Change Impacts.
2030
South-West Western Australia: Under the median future climate scenario, rainfall in the surface water basins
declines by 8% and runoff by 25% compared with the historical climate. The reduction in future runoff may be
between 7% (under a continuation of the recent climate) and 42% (under the dry extreme future climate.12
2030
Tasmania: Averaged over Tasmania, changes in annual runoff under the future climate (relative to the
historical climate) range from an increase of 2% under the wet extreme to a decrease of 8% under the dry
extreme. Under the median future climate, runoff decreases by 3%.13
2030
Victoria: runoff in 29 catchments declines by 0-45%.14
2030
Northern Australia: Across the drainage divisions, rainfall in the future (around 2030) is expected to be similar
to conditions of the 1990s, within a range of +10% to -20%.15
Kakadu National Park: 80% loss of freshwater wetlands in Kakadu for a 30 cm sea-level rise.16
11
IPCC (2007) Australia and New Zealand. Climate Change (2007) Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working
Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P.
Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 507-540.
12
CSIRO (2009) Water yields and demands in south-west Western Australia. Summary of a report to the Australian Government from
the CSIRO South-West Western Australia Sustainable Yields Project. CSIRO.
http://www.clw.csiro.au/publications/waterforahealthycountry/swsy/pdf/SWSY-Summary-Overview.pdf
13
CSIRO (2009) Climate Change Projections and Impacts on Runoff for Tasmania CSIRO Tasmania Sustainable Yields Project.
CSIRO.
14
Jones, R. and Durack,P. (2005) Estimating the impacts of climate change on Victoria’s runoff using a hydrological sensitivity model.
Consultancy Report for the Victorian Department of Sustainability and Environment, Victoria.
15
CSIRO (2009) Water in northern Australia. Summary of reports to the Australian Government from the
CSIRO Northern Australia Sustainable Yields Project. CSIRO. http://www.csiro.au/files/files/ps7l.pdf
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Water Transformed: Sustainable Water Solutions
2030
Murray-Darling Basin: The impacts of climate change by 2030 are uncertain; however, CSIRO has found that
due to climate change, the median decline in surface water runoff by 2030 for the entire MDB is most likely to
be 11% – 9% in the north of the MDB and 13 % in the south of the MDB. According to CSIRO, “The relative
impact of climate change on surface water use would be much greater in dry years. Under the median 2030
climate, diversions in driest years would fall by more than 10% in most New South Wales regions, around
20% in the Murrumbidgee and Murray regions and from around 35 to over 50% in the Victorian regions. Under
the dry extreme 2030 climate, diversions in driest years would fall by over 20% in the Condamine- Balonne,
around 40 to 50% in New South Wales regions (except the Lachlan), over 70% in the Murray and 80 to 90%
in the major Victorian regions.”17
Climate Change Will Affect Groundwater
Climate change is impacting both the depth of groundwater tables and renewable groundwater
recharge rates. Around the world, knowledge of existing extraction and recharge rates and
groundwater levels is poor and little research has been carried out on the impacts of climate
change on groundwater or the interactions between surface water and groundwater resources.
However, knowledge of current recharge and levels in both developed and developing countries is
poor; and there has been very little research on the future impact of climate change on
groundwater, or groundwater–surface water interactions. Groundwater flow through shallow
aquifers is an integral part of the hydrological cycle and therefore affected by climate variability
and change through recharge processes18 and regional human impacts.19
Groundwater extraction has been increasing and groundwater levels falling around the world due
to over-pumping since mid last century. Any climate change related decreases in rainfall and
subsequent groundwater recharge are therefore additional burdens to overstretched systems.20
Increased rainfall events and variability may decrease groundwater recharge in humid areas as
more frequent heavy rainfall events may over-saturate the infiltration capacity of the soil with
water lost to surface systems. In semi-arid and arid regions increased variable rainfall events may
increase groundwater recharge, as only heavy rainfall events are able to infiltrate the aquifers
before evaporation. Alluvial aquifers are mostly recharged by flood inundation.
Climate Change Will Increase the Risk of Greater Hydrologic Extremes
Climatic models suggest that global warming will lead to greater climate variability and an
increase in the risk of hydrologic extremes such as drought or flooding. For Australia, this is partly
because of the increased frequency of the phases of the El Nino under climate change
16
Hare, W. (2003) Assessment of Knowledge on Impacts of Climate Change: Contribution to the Specification of Article 2 of the
UNFCCC.WGBU, Berlin, 106 pp.
17
CSIRO (2008) The Murray-Darling Basin Sustainable Yields Project - Whole of Basin Final Report. Water Availability in the MurrayDarling Basin – Executive Summary. CSIRO at
http://www.clw.csiro.au/publications/waterforahealthycountry/mdbsy/pdf/WaterAvailabilityInTheMDB-ExecSummary.pdf
18
Chen, M., Xie, P., and Janowiak, J.E., (2002) Global land precipitation: a 50-yr monthly analysis based on gauge observations. J.
Hydrometeorol., 3, 249–266
19
Petheram, C., et al (2001) Towards a framework for predicting impacts of land-use on recharge. Aust. J. Soil Res., 40, 397-417
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Water Transformed: Sustainable Water Solutions
scenarios.21 Every major mainland city has faced water stress already at times over the last
decade in Australia. In many cases climate change will increase these pressures through
increased temperature and possibly lower rainfall combined with more frequent El Nino events. El
Nino has existed for the past 130,000 years, with studies validating El Nino events in the 20th
century as the most intense over that period.22 The term refers to a general warming of the central
and Asian Pacific, which manifests as major shifts in the strength and frequency of weather
patterns. The consequences to surface water hydrology are severe. These include immediate and
chronic impacts on agriculture and food production, ranging from major droughts (Australia and
Brazil), decimation of crops, reduced water quality, increased potential for algal blooms, and
destructive rains and flooding (as seen in Ecuador and northern Peru). The erratic nature of El
Nino (2-10 years) makes it difficult for farmers to know which crops to plant, and when to plant
them, or for reservoir managers to lower reservoir water levels to make storage room available for
excess water.23 Reservoir or dam failure can have an immense impact on civilian populations, the
economy, and the environment.24 Although it is not clear that climate change is a driver of El Nino,
models project that climate change may exacerbate the severity and frequency of El Nino.
Unmitigated Climate Change Will Reduce Water Quality
In Australia, there is a 50% chance by 2020 of the average salinity of the lower Murray River
exceeding the 800 EC threshold set for desirable drinking and irrigation water. 25 There are no
integrated assessments of the impacts of climate change on runoff quantity and quality, salt
interception and revegetation policies, or water pricing and trading policies.
Eutrophication (input of excess nutrients leading to overgrowth of plant material and subsequent
de-oxygenation of the water killing off other living organisms) is a major water quality problem. 26
With climate change, toxic algal blooms are likely to increase in frequency and last longer, with
the potential to kill fish and livestock also posing a threat to human health directly through potable
water supplies and indirectly with recreational activities on affected waters.27
Simple strategies that are resource-neutral such as flushing flows can significantly disrupt the high
nutrient, thermally stratified conditions that are conducive to algal blooms thereby reducing both
their duration and frequency.28 Sea-level rise will impact on storm-water drainage and sewage
disposal in coastal and low-lying areas and the quality of the receiving waters. Sea-level rise is
21
McKerchar,A.I. and Henderson, R.D., ( 2003) Shifts in flood and low-flow regimes in New Zealand due to inter-decadal climate
variations. Hydrolog. Sci. J., 48, 637-654
22
Tudhope, A. W., et al (2001) Variability in the El Nino Southern Oscillation Through a Glacial-Interglacial Cycle, Science, 291, 1511–
1517
23
The International Resource institute for Climate and Social Research is currently working on a research project at the Angat
reservoir in the Philippines. The single reservoir provides 97% of Manila's drinking water and 65% of the hydroelectric power for Luzon,
as well as irrigation for over 30,000 hectares of land. During the 1997-98 El Niño rainfall was reduced so drastically that irrigation had
to be stopped and the hydroelectric turbines had to be shut down. The Philippine government desperately scrambled to buy coal at
elevated prices from Australia and Indonesia at the last minute in order to keep generating electric power. To make matters worse, in
late September 1998, the El Niño gave way to La Niña conditions resulting in above normal rainfall and the reservoir level rose so
rapidly that water had to be released to save the dam. Angat reservoir had tried to base its water strategy by averaging out historical
records, which were unable to predict the unexpected variations likely to result from an unexpectedly strong El Niño. In contrast, if the
reservoir management knows in advance that rainfall is going to be heavy, it can release water for irrigation early on.
24
Allen Consulting Group, (2005) Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability: Promoting an Efficient Adaptation Response in Australia.
Report to the Australian Greenhouse Office by the Allen Consulting Group
25
MDBMC (1999) The Salinity Audit of the Murray-Darling Basin. Murray-Darling Basin Ministerial Council, 48 pp.
http://www.mdbc.gov.au/salinity/salinity_audit_1999
26
Davis, J.R., Ed., (1997): Managing Algal Blooms: Outcomes from CSIRO’s Multi-Divisional Blue-Green Algae Program. CSIRO Land
and Water, Canberra,113 pp.
27
Falconer, I.R., (1997) Blue-green algae in lakes and rivers: their harmful effects on human health. Australian Biologist, 10, 107-110
28
Viney, N.R., B.C. Bates, S.P. Charles, I.T.Webster, M. Bormans and S.K. Aryal, 2003: Impacts of climate variability on riverine algal
blooms. Proceedings of the International Congress onModelling and Simulation,MODSIM2003 14-17 July, Modelling and Simulation
Society of Australia and New Zealand, 23-28. http://mssanz.org.au/modsim03/Media/Articles/Vol%201%20Articles/23-28.pdf.
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Water Transformed: Sustainable Water Solutions
already causing greater coastal erosion, inundation, loss of estuarine wetlands and saline
intrusion into freshwater sources.29 This will require changes in coastal management
programmes. Increases in storm activity and sea-level rise are already inhibiting the ability of
mangroves to stabilise coastal erosion and damp down storm wave damage.30 Global warming
will mean an increase in demand for farm irrigation, garden sprinklers, perhaps even swimming
pools, and water for evaporative cooling systems in buildings. Rising temperatures and high rates
of evapo-transpiration will mean greater water demand in agricultural cropping systems. Since
irrigated agriculture accounts for 70 per cent of global water usage, this increase could well be
significant. The IPCC found that, different climate models project different worldwide changes in
net irrigation requirements, with estimated increases ranging from 1–3% by the 2020s and 2–7%
by the 2070s.31
The increase in household water demand (for example through an increase in garden watering
and swimming pools) and industrial water demand, due to climate change, is likely to be rather
small globally, e.g., less than 5% by the 2050s at selected locations.32 But it could be higher in
Australia where a significant %age of household water demand is for water for residential
gardens. An indirect, but small, secondary effect would be increased electricity demand for the
cooling of buildings, which would tend to increase water withdrawals for the cooling of thermal
power plants.33 Sydney Water has found cooling tower demand from commercial buildings is quite
significant and would increase under warmer weather scenarios.
Adapting to Climate Change in the Water Sector
Unmitigated climate change is predicted to alter rainfall patterns. Climate change already appears
to be reducing and altering rainfall patterns in many parts of the world. Given that, it is no-longer
viable for water utilities to rely on increasing the number of centralized dams, which rely on rain
falling in relatively small dammed water catchments. There is now a rapidly growing body of
literature which recommends a more sophisticated approach to meeting water needs focused on
an integrated approach of water efficiency, demand management34 and supply augmentation
through decentralised approaches to water reuse and recycling. It is well summed up by the 2008
IPCC Climate Change and Water report which stated
In the absence of reliable projections of future changes in hydrological variables,
adaptation processes and methods which can be usefully implemented in the absence of
accurate projections, such as improved water-use efficiency and water-demand
management, offer no-regrets options to cope with climate change.35
29
MfE, (2004): Coastal Hazards and Climate Change: AGuidanceManual for Local Government in New Zealand. Ministry for the
Environment, 13 pp.at http://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/climate/ebop-coastal-hazards-jul03/ebopcoastal-hazards-jul03.pdf
accessed 3 March 2010
30
Hennessy, K., B. Fitzharris, B.C. Bates, N. Harvey, S.M. Howden, L. Hughes, J. Salinger and R. Warrick, 2007: Australia and New
Zealand. Climate Change (2007) Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E.
Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 507-540
31
Bates, B.C., Z.W. Kundzewicz, S. Wu and J.P. Palutikof, Eds., (2008) Climate Change and Water. Technical Paper of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, 210 pp
32
Bates, B.C., Z.W. Kundzewicz, S. Wu and J.P. Palutikof, Eds., (2008) Climate Change and Water. Technical Paper of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, 210 pp
33
Protopapas, L., S. Katchamart and A. Platonova, (2000) Weather effects on daily water use in New York City. J. Hydrol. Eng., 5,
332–338.
34
Lemmen, D.S and Warren, E. J (eds) (2004) Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: A Canadian Perspective. National Resources
Canada. Ottowa. Ontario.
35
Bates, B.C., Z.W. Kundzewicz, S. Wu and J.P. Palutikof, Eds., (2008) Climate Change and Water. Technical Paper of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, 210 pp
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Such an approach will simultaneously address all the other major challenges currently being
faced by water supply companies and water planners. These include:
-
Increasing population, economic activity, and other water needs, such as restoring
environmental flows to rivers and wetlands, which are increasing the demand for limited water
resources.36
-
The trend for people to move to cities is placing greater demand on constrained geographical
resources. This is creating increased competition for a scarce resource between agriculture,
cities, and industry.
-
In addition to this, new government policy objectives increasingly call for water to be provided
at the lowest economic, environmental and social cost, often requiring stakeholder
engagement.
-
Water utilities are increasingly also required to meet demand reduction targets often set by
government with little analysis of their cost or feasibility in a given region. Water utilities need
to maintain profitability despite potential lost revenue through demand management and water
efficiency programs and initiatives.
-
Community attitudes have shifted dramatically towards the damming rivers over the last three
decades. There has been a significant rise in ‘green’ attitudes and increase in demand from
customers for sustainable solutions to water management. This includes re-use options.
The Demand Management Approach
We refer in this lecture to this relatively new “water efficiency/demand management” approach, as
the “Soft Path,37” and the old traditional centralised approach to water supply augmentation as the
“Hard Path” out of respect for the original pioneering literature on demand management and
resource efficient approaches to resource management dating back to the 1970s. Soft paths can
be described as approaches to natural resources management that rely on ‘ firstly a focus on
demand management and a prioritisation of ultra-efficient ways of meeting end-use water
demands coupled with, secondly, a multitude of geographically distributed, relatively small-scale
sources of supply.”38 In contrast, hard paths rely on large-scale, capital-intensive sources of
supply and centralized management. Where soft path approaches are applied to existing
centralised water infrastructure the “soft” path may also rely partly on centralized infrastructure,
but complement it with extensive investment in water efficiency, demand management, and water
recycling with decentralized facilities.39
36
The background to future water problems at the global level is described in such books as Gleick, P. (1993) Water in Crisis: A Guide
to the World's Fresh Water Resources, Stockholm Environment Institute, Sweden; Postel, S. (1984) Water: Rethinking Management in
Age of Scarcity, Worldwatch Paper 62, Worldwatch Institute, Washington, DC; Raskin P., Hansen, E. and Margolis, R. (1996) 'Water
and Sustainability, Global Patterns and Long-Range Problems', Natural Resources Forum, vol 20, no 1, pp1-17
37
Amory Lovins (1977) originally coined the term “soft path” for energy use in his seminal paper at Lovins, A. (1977) Soft Energy
Paths: Toward a Durable Peace. Harper Colophon Books . We warmly acknowledge his paternity in the terminology and many of the
concepts of the Soft path discussed here. The Rocky Mountain Institute’s definition and discussion of the soft path for water is
available at www.rmi.org/sitepages/pid278.php accessed 3 March 2010
38
Lovins, Amory B. (1977). Soft Energy Paths: Toward a Durable Peace. Ballinger/Friends of the Earth, Cambridge, MA. and Lovins, A.
B. (1976). “Energy Strategy: The Road Not Taken?”Foreign Affairs.55, 65-96 at
http://softpathinnovations.com/SoftPath/About_Us_files/Energy%20Strategy-%20The%20Road%20Not%20Taken.pdf accessed 3
March 2010
39
Gleick, P. (2002) Soft water paths. Nature 418:373. Gleick, P. (2003) Global Freshwater Resources: Soft-Path Solutions for the 21st
Century. Science 28 November 2003: Vol. 302. no. 5650, pp. 1524 – 1528. Wolff, G. Gleick, P. (2002) The Soft Path for Water.in: The
World’s Water 2002–2003. Gleick, P.H.,editor. Washington, D.C.: Island Press, pp. 1–32.at
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Many water utilities are already embracing and implementing the “soft path approach” for water
with remarkable results. For example, by 2005 Sydney Water Corporation (SWC) had invested
over AUD$80 million in water efficiency/demand management programs and achieved an
estimated saving of 35,000 ML per annum. This has enabled current water per capita levels in
Sydney to be reduced now to what they were in 1970. Sydney Water estimates that they can
achieve a further 145,000 ML per annum from further water efficiency and demand management.
Water efficiency and demand management programs, such as water restrictions/, plus water
recycling are now being used by Sydney Water to manage supply and demand for water in the
greater Sydney Region.
Figure 5.1.1 2006 Metropolitan Water Plan for Sydney
(Source: NSW Government, 200640)
A Soft Path For Water to enable Adaptation to Climate Change
The environmentally sustainable “soft path” differs from the hard unsustainable traditional path for
supplying water services in at least 8 fundamental ways. Each of these will be discussed in this
lecture:
1. Focusing on achieving environmental sustainability. The soft path is motivated fundamentally
by the recognition of the environmental unsustainability of the current approach and instead
seeks, over time, to achieve a truly environmentally sustainable and lowest cost approach to
http://www.waterwatch.org/files/Worlds_Water_2002_Chapter1_Soft_Path_For_Water.pdf accessed 3 March 2010
Brooks, D.,B.(2003) Another Path Not Taken: A Methodological Exploration of Water Soft Paths for Canada and Elsewhere. Report to
Environment Canada. Friends of the Earth Canada, Ottawa, ON.
Brooks, D.,B., Robert de Loë, Robert Patrick and Gregory Rose. (2004) Water Soft Paths for Ontario: Feasibility Study. Report to the
Walter and Gordon Duncan Foundation. Friends of the Earth Canada, Ottawa, ON. Brooks, D.B. (2005) Beyond greater efficiency: the
concept of water soft paths. Canadian Water Resources Journal 30(1):1–10.
40
NSW Government (2006) Sydney Metropolitan Water Plan 2006, NSW Government at
http://www.waterforlife.nsw.gov.au/about_water_for_life/metropolitan_water_plan accessed 3 March 2010
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providing water services. Hence soft path approaches often start by defining a vision of what a
truly environmentally sustainable and water efficient future for water management could look
like, say for 2030 or 2050. A good way to plot a workable and attractive path between the
current status quo and an ideal future is to backcast, by starting where we want to be, an
equitable and water efficient future and then work backwards to the present. Too often
planning is an extension of where we are, rather than identifying worthwhile goals and then
setting out a path to achieve them. During this process transition technologies need to be
identified with policies and programs developed to facilitate the changes towards the chosen
future goals. Backcasting our preferred water futures can be an effective method of identifying
and overcoming the challenges we face in achieving sustainable water use.
2. Focusing on ensuring water for human needs. The soft path redirects water utilities,
government agencies, private companies, and individuals to work to meet the water-related
needs of people and businesses, rather than merely to supply water. People do not want to
“use” water, rather they want the services water provides. Taking a services approach opens
up new options and opportunities to meet society’s needs whilst using water in a much more
environmentally sustainable manner. This means that water utilities are now becoming ‘water
service providers’ rather than commodity suppliers.
3. Focusing on meeting the supply-demand gaps in water resources as much as possible from
the demand side. The goal is to apply least-cost approaches to reduce water use at every
stage from water withdrawal to wastewater disposal and (ideally) recovery. As Module B
showed water efficiency opportunities of between 30-80 per cent exist across most sectors of
the economy. In Module B, Lectures 2.4 – 4.3 highlighted significant potential for water
efficiency improvement in the industrial, commercial and institutional sectors. Effective
communication of these efficiency gains, as part of aggressive demand management
programs, has seen some municipal water utilities reduce water demand by as much as 30
per cent.41
4. Matching the Quality of Water Needed with the Quality of Water Used: The soft path leads to
water systems that supply water of various qualities, with higher quality water reserved for
those uses that require higher quality. For example, storm runoff, greywater, and reclaimed
wastewater are explicitly recognized as water supplies suitable for landscape irrigation and
other non-potable uses. This is almost never the case in traditional water planning: all future
water demand in urban areas is implicitly assumed to require potable water. The soft path
recognizes that single-pipe distribution networks and once-through consumptive-use
appliances are no longer the only cost-effective and practical technologies. The soft path
recognises that the potential to augment traditional water supply with reuse and recycling of
water is significant as shown for instance by Sydney Water in Figure 5.1.1 Most of the water
used for agriculture and around half of the water being used for industrial and domestic
purposes (half of household use is for toilet flushing and gardens in OECD countries) does not
need to be water of drinking quality. Thus the soft path seeks to match the quality of the
resource supplied to the quality required by the end use. Drinking water gets most of the
attention, but it is one of the smallest users in our water budget. Increasingly, wastewater,
Wolff, G. Gleick, P. (2002) The Soft Path for Water.in: The World’s Water 2002–2003. Gleick, P.H.,editor. Washington, D.C.: Island
Press, pp. 1–32. http://www.waterwatch.org/files/Worlds_Water_2002_Chapter1_Soft_Path_For_Water.pdf accessed 3 March 2010
41
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stormwater and rainwater are being seen as recyclable resources rather than as disposal
problems.
5. Matching the scale of the infrastructure to the scale of the need: The soft path recognizes that
investments firstly in water efficiency and demand management when combined with
numerous decentralized approaches augmenting supply – such as rainwater and stormwater
harvesting and use of large water tanks – are more cost-effective than simply ignoring
demand management options and investing in large, centralized options such as more dams
and desalination plants. Hence, in a “soft path”, we continue to rely on carefully planned and
managed centralized infrastructure but this is complemented by a strong focus on firstly water
efficiency and demand management and secondly on small-scale decentralized water
augmentation options. In Module B we showed the significant potential for water efficiency
improvements to be made in most sectors. Thus, by using water more efficiently and utilising
the full array of water recycling options, it is possible to delay, or even eliminate, the need to
construct more dams and other major centralised water infrastructure such as desalination
plants. Figure 5.1.2 clearly shows the significant decline in new dam construction globally from
the 1950s/60s to the 1980s/90s.
Fig. 5.1.2. Construction of large reservoirs worldwide in the 20th century. Average numbers of
reservoirs with volume greater than 0.1 km3 built by decade.
(Source: Avakyan et al, 199842)
The annual cost of continuing down the ‘hard path’ until 2025 globally has been estimated at
US$180 billion per annum.43 This is the cost of the global provision of water and related services
at the current level of industrialized nations; it assumes the provision of such services via
centralized supply and treatment infrastructure. However, this figure can be reduced to an annual
42
Avakyan, A., and Iakovleva, V. (1998) Lakes Reservoirs Res. Manage. 3, 45.
Cosgrove, W., Rijsberman, F. (2000) A Water Secure World: Report of the World Commission for Water in the 21st Century.
Chapter 4: Framework for Action (World Water Council, London, 2000)
www.worldwatercouncil.org/Vision/Documents/CommissionReport.pdf
43
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cost of US$10 – 25 billion, if the emphasis is on employing the soft path for the provision of basic
human water needs.44 As Dr Peter Gleick explains,
The more expensive estimates assume a cost of around US$500 per person—typical of
the costs of centralized water systems in developed countries. However, field experience
shows that safe and reliable water supply and sanitation services can be provided in urban
areas for US$35 to US$50 per person and in rural areas for less than that when local
communities build appropriate-scale technology.45
The soft path is so much cheaper because of its emphasis is on first addressing rising demand for
water through a focus on water efficiency and demand management. The soft path is also
cheaper because of the use of many small de-centralised rainwater/stormwater harvesting and
water recycling systems to augment supply instead of building additional large centralised and
expensive dams and desalination plants. Decentralised water recycling systems are smaller than
centralised systems and thus have both lower up-front costs and shorter construction time
reducing the costs from tying up capital unproductively or needing to rely on large loans from
banks.
Figure 5.1.3 Comparison of Centralised and Decentralized Approaches to Wastewater Service.
STP indicates a centralised sewage treatment plant.
(Source: RMI, 2004)46
Urban water systems were designed largely to meet the health concerns of over 100 years ago
with the water treatment technologies available at that time. This was an important step forward,
at that time, as ensuring clean water sanitation has had a profoundly positive effect on health. But
now, in the 21st century, innovations in water recycling and water treatment are making it possible
to re-design urban water systems anew in a more decentralised manner. For instance, as
Professor Mike Young stated:
‘One of the really interesting ones is how we use sewage water. Recent work by CSIRO’s
urban water program is showing that the most profitable sewage treatment plants now are
really ones that treat effluent, between 5000 and about 8000 or 10,000 houses, so rather
than having sewage treatment plants right at the end of the city and taking all the sewage
the whole way down, you would take the sewage from say, 5000 houses, treat it, and then
44
Water Supply and Sanitation Collaborative Council (2000) Vision 21: A Shared Vision for Hygiene, Sanitation,
and Water Supply WSSCC at http://www.wsscc.org/fileadmin/files/pdf/publication/vision21.pdf
45
Gleick, P. (2003) Global Freshwater Resources: Soft-Path Solutions for the 21st Century. Science. Vol. 302. no. 5650, pp. 1524 –
1528. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~earth/earth3/gleick.pdf
46
Rocky Mountain Institute (2004) Valuing Decentralized Wastewater Technologies: A Catalogue of Benefits, Costs, and Economic
Analysis Techniques. RMI Available at http://www.rmi.org/images/PDFs/Water/W04-21_ValuWstWtr.pdf accessed 3 March 2010
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actually pass it down in a dual system through the rest of the city.”47 This work by CSIRO
demonstrates the cost effectiveness now of the decentralised approach.
6. Focusing on meeting society’s water needs with a minimum carbon footprint: The soft path
also recognises that in a carbon constrained world, water utilities need to consider the energy
requirements and greenhouse gas emissions of each water supply augmentation option.
Desalination, for instance, is highly energy intensive, compared to the implementation of a
comprehensive demand management and water efficiency program to manage the water
supply and demand gap. For instance, water utility led demand management programs that
encourage households to use more water efficient showerheads also will lead to significant
energy savings as hot water systems can use as much as 30 per cent of all energy used by
households. Water utilities also can save energy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions within
existing operations. Sydney Water has:
Identified 104 opportunities to save on electricity demand, with a varying range of payback
periods. A total of 48 are either underway or are in the process of being implemented.
These include eight cogeneration and hydroelectric plants that will be operational by mid2009, adding to three such existing facilities that are already running. Cogeneration
captures biogas from the wastewater treatment processes to create heat and electricity,
while hydroelectricity energy is generated from water and wastewater flows within the pipe
network. Other methods of savings include real-time pump scheduling of water supply
systems, running pumps closer to their best efficiency point, optimising control and use of
equipment within treatment plants, optimising aeration systems “and a number of smaller
projects that will add up benefits to the organisation.48
7. Ensuring Public Participation in decisions over Water: The soft path requires water utility
personnel to interact closely with water users and stakeholders. Users need help determining
how much water of various qualities they need, and neighbours may need to work together to
capture low-cost opportunities such as greywater treatment plants that capture and resupply
water to a number of homes on a street. In this way not only costs but also total available
water source is shared. Communal rainwater tanks are another example of the opportunities
available through public participation. Communal tanks overcome some of the traditional
issues with household tanks. Plenty of examples of these in new developments.
8. Using the Power of Smart Economics: The soft path recognizes the complexity of water
economics. “Decoupling regulation” to enable water utilities to profit from selling less is a huge
issue for water, as it is for energy. Currently in the urban water sector, most urban water
utilities are simply required in their statutory requirements and by regulation to ensure supply
of water and maximise the financial return from providing it. In other words water utilities,
under current regulations, are required to maximise financial return and their main way of
achieving this is by selling more water.49 Currently in statutes and regulations in most
countries there is no incentive for most water utilities to help their customers use water more
efficiently as this would perversely hurt their bottom line. Dover gives an example of how this
47
ABC 4 Corners Reporter Ticky Fullerton interviews Professor Mike Young, CSIRO economist and member of the Wentworth Group
on 15 June 2003 near Tailem Bend, SA.
48
Energetics (2009) Sydney Water, Energetics and WorleyParsons' partnership identifies ways to cut 25% power demand. Energetics.
at http://www.energetics.com.au/newsroom/media_releases/energetics-worleyparsons-and- accessed 20 October 2009
49
Dovers, S. (2008) Chapter 5: Urban water: Policy, institutions and government in Troy, P. (ed) (2008) Troubled Waters: Confronting
the Water Crisis in Australia’s Cities. ANU E-Book Publication at http://epress.anu.edu.au/troubled_waters/pdf_instructions.html
accessed 3 March 2010
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works in Australia, where regulations for urban water utilities currently work against efforts to
achieve water efficiency and demand management.
While public health and basic service provision were still important, economic efficiency of
operations (has become) an underlying imperative, given direction by the corporatisation
of water agencies within statutory frameworks that gave greater primacy to financial
return... (So) In their defence, many of the things that are increasingly being demanded of
corporatised water utilities are simply not rational for them to do within the statutory
mandate that governments, representing society, have given them. This includes such
things as mandating efficiency, undertaking long-term environmental monitoring, collecting
water data that informs other than straight commercial accounting needs and investing in
different forms of supply and treatment infrastructure.50
Thus statutory requirements of water utilities currently work against any CEO of a water utility in
Australia contemplating implementing water efficiency programs for its customers. That said, even
under current regulation and statutory requirements, water utilities have still found that water
efficiency and demand management programs over time are more profitable than having to build
expensive dams or more desalination plants to meet rising demand for water from their
customers. Given that, imagine what could be achieved, if governments, regulatory frameworks
and statutes governing the water supply sector actually rewarded water utilities for their water
efficiency and demand management programs. This can be done. It is possible through smart
regulation to decouple water utilities profits from sales so that they are rewarded for helping their
customers use water more efficiently. This approach has worked well in the energy sector for
energy utilities in California. In California energy intensity is 55 per cent less than the US national
average partly due to these regulations which decouple utility profits from sales and instead
encourage utilities to run efficiency programs for customers.
Water utilities, generators and suppliers benefit from changes to regulations which reward them,
rather than punishing them financially, when they encourage water efficiency. There are
significant commercial benefits from this approach because it maintains and improves their
bottom line whilst delaying the need to build new dams or sewage treatment plants. It also helps
utilities build customer goodwill and loyalty. Rewarding utilities for selling less water also shifts the
focus of water utilities from asking “how can we increase sales?” to “how can we further reduce
demand.” Such regulation has been shown to be very successful at flattening demand and thus
making investment in further large dams and large supply augmentation not necessary and
financially risky. Hence, governments have a key role to play in enabling the soft path to happen
as efficiently as possible through regulating to reward water utilities for doing the right thing and
helping their customers save water.
Conclusion:
To conclude, this soft path requires expertise in multiple fields such as engineering and new
technologies, the latest advances in water efficiency (see Module B), environmental, health and
social sciences, economics, stakeholder engagement, and policy. Water utilities and the water
professional associations increasingly recognise that they need their staff to diversify their skills to
proactively address these challenges and opportunities facing water supply utilities in the 21st
50
Ibid.
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century. Module C, complements Module B in bringing together the latest best thinking, writing
and frameworks to help improve the skills of staff of all water utilities, engineering firms and
relevant government departments to help to realise the opportunities of the “soft path.”
To start to implement the soft path to water supply and demand management water utilities need
to adopt a new water planning and management framework. Over the last three decades, various
approaches have been under development internationally to help water utilities manage these
complex issues. Integrated water resource planning has emerged as the most useful framework
for decision making in this area. In Lecture 5.2 we provide an overview of how to implement an
integrated water resource planning framework.
Further Reading
Soft Paths for Water
Gleick, P. (2002) Soft water paths. Nature 418:373.
Gleick, P. (2003) Global Freshwater Resources: Soft-Path Solutions for the 21st Century.
Science. Vol. 302. no. 5650, pp. 1524 – 1528.
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~earth/earth3/gleick.pdf
Wolff, G., and Gleick, P. (2002) The Soft Path for Water.in: The World’s Water 2002–2003. Gleick,
P.H.,editor. Washington, D.C.: Island Press, pp. 1–32.
http://www.waterwatch.org/files/Worlds_Water_2002_Chapter1_Soft_Path_For_Water.pdf
accessed 3 March 2010
Brooks, D., Brandes, O., Gurman, S. (eds) (2009) Making the Most of the Water We Have: The
Soft Path Approach to Water Management. Earthscan. London.
Brooks, D.,B.(2003) Another Path Not Taken: A Methodological Exploration of Water Soft Paths
for Canada and Elsewhere. Report to Environment Canada. Friends of the Earth Canada, Ottawa,
ON.
Brooks, D.,B., Robert de Loë, Robert Patrick and Gregory Rose. (2004) Water Soft Paths for
Ontario: Feasibility Study. Report to the Walter and Gordon Duncan Foundation. Friends of the
Earth Canada, Ottawa, ON.
Brooks, D.B. (2005) Beyond greater efficiency: the concept of water soft paths. Canadian Water
Resources Journal 30(1):1–10.
Introduction to the Key Elements of a Soft Path Approach
Vision for A Sustainable Water Future Through A Soft Path Approach
Gleick, P., H. (1997). Water 2050: Moving Toward A Sustainable Vision for the Earth’s Fresh
Water. Working Paper for the Comprehensive Freshwater Assessment of the United Nations
General Assembly. Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security
(typescript). Oakland, CA.
Gleick, P., H., P. Loh, S. Gomez and J. Morrison. (1995) California Water 2020: A Sustainable
Vision. Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment and Security, Oakland, CA.
Backcasting
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Brandes, O., Maas, T. (2007) Urban Water Soft Path ‘Back of the Envelope’ Backcasting
Framework.
POLIS
Discussion
Series
Paper
07-02
February
2007
at
http://poliswaterproject.org/sites/default/files/BEBF_lowres.pdf accessed 3 March 2010
Weaver, P., Jansen, J., van Grootveld, G., van Spiegel, E. and Vergragt, P. (2000) Sustainable
Technology Development, Greenleaf Publishing, Sheffield , UK , p151
Identifying Water Efficiency Opportunities
Vickers, Amy. (2002) Handbook of Water Use and Conservation. WaterPlow Press. Amherst, MA,
USA
Gleick, P.H., D. Haasz, C. Henges-Jeck, V. Srinivasan, G. Wolff, K. Kao Cushing and A. Mann.
(2003) Waste Not, Want Not: The Potential for Urban Water Conservation in California. Pacific
Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security. Oakland, CA.
Decentralised Approaches to WasteWater Treatment and Recycling
Rocky Mountain Institute (2004) Valuing Decentralized Wastewater Technologies: A Catalogue of
Benefits,
Costs,
and
Economic
Analysis
Techniques.
RMI
Available
at
http://www.rmi.org/images/PDFs/Water/W04-21_ValuWstWtr.pdf accessed 3 March 2010
Integrated Water Resource Planning
Turner, A., Willetts, J., Fane, S., Giurco, D., Kazaglis, A., White, S. (2008) Integrated Resource
Planning – Demand Management Guide. Water Services Association of Australia. At
http://www.isf.uts.edu.au/publications/wsaa2008dmguide.pdf accessed 3 March 2010.
American Water Works Association. (2006) Water Conservation Programs – A Planning Manual
(Manual of Water Supply Practices: M52), 1st Edition. AWWA. Denver, Colorado, USA.
National Decentralized Water Resources Capacity Development Project (2003) Soft Path
Integrated Water Resource Management: Training, Research and Development Needs: List of
Publications. Washington University. Available at http://www.ndwrcdp.org/publications/index.htm
accessed 3 March 2010
Nelson, Valerie I. (2003) Soft Path Integrated Water Resource Management: Training, Research,
and Development Needs. Prepared for the National Decentralized Water Resources Capacity
Development Project, Washington University, St. Louis, MO, by the Coalition for Alternative
Wastewater Treatment, Gloucester, MA at
www.ndwrcdp.org/userfiles/SOFT_PATH_TRDneeds_WEB.pdf accessed 4 March 2010
Other Useful Links
Additional papers on “soft path for water” available at http://www.poliswaterproject.org/softpath
accessed 3 March 2010
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