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Surveillance Plan for Bison Yellowstone National Park Need for Surveillance Effects and Effectiveness of Management Actions Vaccination Free-ranging bison in Yellowstone Remote delivery decision in 2010 Government Accountability Office Define measurable objectives Apply adaptive management Purpose of Surveillance Implement long-term research and monitoring for Yellowstone bison and brucellosis Obtain information to: Evaluate the effects and effectiveness of vaccination and other management actions Guide decision making Effectively adapt the IBMP Adaptive Management Principles Goals of the IBMP Reduce the risk of transmission to cattle Conserve a free-ranging bison herd Measurable Objectives Management and research objectives Define scientific and management questions Surveillance Activities 13 specific activities to answer questions >1 sampling objectives for each activity Adaptive Management Principles Incorporate findings into the decisionmaking process Inform stakeholders Adjust the IBMP based on assessments Decision – remote delivery vaccination Surveillance Activities 3 Primary Themes Conservation – preserve a wild bison population Risk Management – prevent brucellosis transmission from bison to cattle Brucellosis Suppression – reduce disease prevalence Conservation 1. Estimate the abundance, demographic rates, and limiting factors for bison. Overall population and 2 subpopulations Abundance Age, pregnancy, recruitment, survival Social structure – group sizes, matrilineal Foraging – landscape heterogeneity Mate competition and sex ratios Role and function – ecosystem effects (e.g., primary production, competition, prey for carnivores and scavengers) Conservation 1. Estimate the abundance, demographic rates, and limiting factors for bison. 2. Describe migratory and nomadic movements by bison in and out of park. Distribution, migration, and dispersal Effects of density, environmental conditions, and management actions Conservation Estimate the abundance, demographic rates, and limiting factors for bison. 2. Describe migratory and nomadic movements by bison in and out of park. 1. 3. Estimate genetic diversity and probabilities of conservation Overall population and 2 subpopulations Interchange rates between subpopulations Long-term conservation of bison genome Risk Management 4. Estimate risks of transmission within and between species and areas. Risk assessment model – bison, elk, cattle Transmission pathways through the greater Yellowstone area Risk Management 4. Estimate risks of transmission within and between species and areas. 5. Estimate seroprevalence rates, culture rates, and cross-reactive agents. % seropositive and seronegative bison that are culture positive % seropositive bison that express crossreactive antibodies (e.g., Yersinia) Risk Management Estimate risks of transmission within and between species and areas. 5. Estimate seroprevalence rates, culture rates, and cross-reactive agents. 4. 6. Determine rates of recrudescence. Rate at which latent carriers of Brucella relapse to infectious state and shed bacteria Risk Management Estimate risks of transmission within and between species and areas. 5. Estimate seroprevalence rates, culture rates, and cross-reactive agents. 6. Determine rates of recrudescence. 4. 7. Determine factors influencing the vulnerability of bison to infection and transmission. Pregnancy, stress, nutritional condition Identify the best time to vaccinate Risk Management Estimate seroprevalence rates, culture rates, and cross-reactive agents. 6. Determine rates of recrudescence. 7. Determine factors influencing the vulnerability of bison to infection and transmission. 5. 8. Estimate the timing and % of removals. Subpopulations Sex and age classes % of calf-cow pairs Risk Management Determine rates of recrudescence. Determine factors influencing the vulnerability of bison to infection and transmission. 8. Estimate the timing and % of removals. 6. 7. 9. Document bison use of zones outside the park and commingling with cattle. North and west boundaries of park During likely abortion period (Feb.-April) Risk Management Determine factors influencing the vulnerability of bison to infection and transmission. 8. Estimate the timing and % of removals. 9. Document bison use of zones outside the park and commingling with cattle. 7. 10. Estimate the effects of hazing or holding bison at capture pens. Influence on subsequent movements Possible habituation to feeding Exposure to abortion events? Disease Suppression 11. Determine the strength and duration of the immune response following syringe vaccination with SRB51. Cell-mediated immune response compared to non-vaccinated bison Vaccine’s ability to provide protection against Brucella infection Effects of age and condition Booster vaccination necessary? Disease Suppression 11. Determine the strength and duration of the immune response following syringe vaccination. 12. Determine the strength and duration of the immune response following remote delivery vaccination. Bio-bullet with hydrogel encapsulation of SRB51 Cell-mediated immune response compared to syringe-vaccinated bison Disease Suppression 13. Document trends in prevalence and the effects of vaccination, other risk management actions, and ecological conditions on these trends. Effectiveness of intensive vaccination in combination with other actions Decrease seroprevalence Increase % of vaccinated bison Decrease incident rate (seronegative to seropositive) Conservation & Disease Management for Yellowstone Bison Managing Brucellosis Risk Prevent Transmission to Cattle • Separation: bison/cattle • Cattle management • State and treaty hunts • Management removals • Research: disease dynamics & transmission Brucellosis Suppression Reduce Disease Prevalence Desired Condition 2500 to 5000 bison Increased tolerance for bison outside YNP • Vaccination (syringe, remote) • Direct slaughter of exposed • Disease surveillance • Contraception - seropositives? • Research: vaccination/immune response Conservation Preserve a Functional, Free-Ranging Bison Population Behavior • Mating • Social • Foraging • Movements Role and Function • Landscape • Nutrient redistribution • Competition / prey • Habitat creation • Carcasses - scavenge Genetic Diversity • Population substructure • Gene flow / mutations • Reduce exploitative selection • Create satellite herds (quarantine) Demography • Population size • Age/sex ratios • Vital rates • Limiting factors • Removals match natural selection Bison won’t always do what we expect or want. Also, many aspects of the proposed disease suppression program are uncertain. Thus, we need to learn and adapt.