Download Food Security

Food Security and
Biotechnology
Professor Paul PS Teng
Senior Fellow (Food Security)
S Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Centre for non-Traditional Security Studies
and
Dean, Graduate Studies & Professional Learning
National Institute of Education
5 April 2011
Evolution in Thinking about and
acting on Food Security
• Uni-dimensional to Multi-dimensional
• Supply side influence to demand side
influence
• Rural to urban
• Single sector to Multi sector interventions
What is Food Security?
“Food Security exists when all people, at all
times, have physical, social and economic access
to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets
their dietary needs and food preferences for an
active and healthy life.”
(Food and Agriculture Organization, U.N.)
Security for Whom?
Individual
Family Unit
(Households)
Communities
(Country)
Regions
Sufficiency
Safety
Economic Access
Physical Access
Nutrition
Capture
Aquaculture
Fish
Animal Feed
Poultry
Mammals
Biofuels
Natural
Ecosystems
3. Access to Food
(Income)
2.
Access to Food
Other Uses
(Market Supply Chain)
1b.Availability
(Food Supply)
Distribution
Production, Imports
Stockpiles
Processing/
Distribution Losses
Trade
Urban
Food Security
4. Utility
Safety/Quality/
Nutritive Value
1a. Availability
(Primary Production)
Crops/Animals
Inputs
Household
Food
Security
Demand for
Food
Science/
Technology
Sunshine
Labor Land Water
Fragility of Agro-ecosystems
Climate Change
Competition for Land
Changing Demographics
(e.g. fewer/ageing farmers)
4 – Dimensional Food
Security Conceptual Model
Population Increases
Diet Diversification
Lifestyle Changes
Urbanization
Why is food a security issue?
CAUSES
DRIVERS
SYMPTOMS
Food
Shortages
Globalisation
Deterioration of Health
Deterioration of Nutrition
Food Price
Increases
Hunger
Food
Insecurity
Conflict
Loss of Life
Civil Unrest
Poverty
Food
Hoarding
Economic Instability
Political Instability
Climate Change
Food
Contamination
Social Instability
Main Threats to Food Security
Transitory Food Security
• Weather disruptions and
pest outbreaks
• Rising energy prices
• Competition from energy
sector
• Policy changes e.g. trade
• Lower holdings of cereal
stocks
• Diversion from staple to cash
crops
• Conflict/Terrorist activities
• Economic factors
Food Availability
Production
Imports
Stockpiles
Food Access (Physical)
Access to markets
Infrastructure
Food Access (Economic)
Employment
Overseas Remittances
Foreign Direct Investment
Trade
Chronic Food Security
• Demographic changes
• Poverty
• Underinvestment in
infrastructure/tech.
• Climate change
• Fragility of agro-ecosystems
• Unfriendly policies towards
farmers
• Declining no. of farmers
• Globalisation
Food Utilization
Health and nutrition
Sanitation/Hygiene
Storage/processing facilities
Clean water
Four Dimensions of Food Security
Biotechnology links to Food Security
Food Availability
Production
Losses
Climate Change (CC)
Food Distribution
Losses
Food Utilization
Nutrition Quality (Biofortification)
TRENDS WHICH IMPACT ON FOOD SECURITY
Mid to Long term
• Demographics – numbers, shifts
• Changes in demand for food –
Quantity and Qualitative
• Investments in food entrepreneurship
• Production and farmer-unfriendly policies
• Climate and Natural Resource Base changes
• Declining number of farmers
Immediate
• Disruptions in supply
• Input cost spiral
• Alternative uses of biomass
World Population, 1961 to 2050 (Urban vs Rural)
•
At present, 50% of the world’s
population lives in cities –
2008 was turning point
•
By 2050, 70% will be urban
(mostly in developing
countries)
•
800 million people involved in
urban agriculture and
contribute to feeding urban
residents; 200 million produce
for the market; 150 million
are full-time employees
•
Low-income urban dwellers
spend between 40%-60% of
their income on food per year
10
9
Urban
Population (Billions)
8
7
Rural
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Year
9 Billion by 2050
Urban and Peri-Urban Agriculture (UPA)
http://www.ruaf.org/node/512
Urban agriculture: the growing of plants and the
raising of animals within and around cities.
• Integrated into the urban economic and ecological
system; urban agriculture is embedded in -and
interacting with- the urban ecosystem.
• Provides complementary strategy to reduce urban
poverty and food insecurity
• Enhances urban environmental management
• Contributes to local economic development, poverty
alleviation and social inclusion of the urban poor,
particularly women
• Saves energy (e.g. lower transport and storage
costs)
• Responds to market demand
Building more Resilient Cities
through UPA
Decreasing number of farmers
• Canada:
– In 1946, about 1.2 million people worked on a farm as a main job.
– Thirty years later, that number had dropped to a little under half a million.
-- Geoff Bowlby, Labour Statistics Division. 2002.
• U.S.A.: The farming population peaked in 1910. It started
declining in the late 1930’s and accelerated in the 1950’s.
Today, less than 1% claim farming as an occupation (and about
2% actually live on farms). There are only about 960,000
persons claiming farming as their principal occupation and a
similar number of farmers claiming some other principal
occupation. The number of farms in the U.S. stands at about
two million.
Farmers are growing older!
Farmers 65 and
Older (%)
Ave. Age of
Farmers
Population 65 and
Older (%)
No. of Farmers
(millions)
1970
1998
1970
1998
1970
1998
1970
1998
U.S.
17
35
51
57
1.2
1
10
13
Canada
12
19
49
51
0.3
0.3
8
12
Japan
14
43
47
60c
7
2.5
7
16
Korea
5
16
36
50c
14.4
4.9
3
6
Source: Population Reference Bureau -- Montague Yudelman & Laura J.M. Kealy. 2000
Stress Factors on the natural resource base
Soil
• Degradation (Erosion, Salinization, etc.)
Water
• Pollution by industrial and agricultural effluents
Air
• Pollution by natural and anthropogenic sources
Global Climate Change (GCC)
• Temperature (global warming)
• Light (global dimming)
Dimension I: Availability
Dimension II: Access
• AFP NEWS BRIEFS LIST
70% by 2050
MONDAY, JANUARY 26, 2009 - 16:40
FAO SAYS WORLD FOOD PRODUCTION
MUST DOUBLE BY DANIEL SILVA
•
•
•
Global food production, already under strain from the credit crunch, must double
in the next four decades to head off mass hunger, the head of the UN's Food
and Agriculture Organisation said on Monday.
Speaking at the start of a two-day international conference in Madrid, FAO
director general Jacques Diouf said the global economic crisis was already
undermining efforts to tackle food insecurity and the need would become more
pressing in the years ahead.
"We face the challenge now of not only ensuring food for the 973 million who are
currently hungry, but also ensuring there is food for nine billion people in 2050.
We will need to double global food production by 2050," Diouf said.“
Increasing Food Availability (Dimension I, II)
• Productivity (Increase yield/unit area; Decrease
losses)
–
–
–
–
Improved conventional seeds
Improved biotech seeds
Improve management of inputs
Improved management of processes
• Total Production Capacity (Increase Total
cropping area)
• Imports (Increased Distribution)
– Efficiency of distribution (diagnostics, LLP
management)
Irrigated Rice: Major yield loss factors
HOW DOES CC CHANGE THE EFFECT OF THESE FACTORS
ON CROP YIELD AND LOSS?
Subtropics
Cold
Drought
K deficiency
P deficiency
N deficiency
Organic matter
deficiency
Submergence
Lodging
Sheath blight
Blast
Humid Tropics
Stemborer
Drought
Submergence
Rice bugs
BLB
BPH
Bacterial blight
Lodging
Sulfur deficiency
Zinc deficiency
Sub-humid tropics
Weeds
Stemborer
Bacterial leaf blight
Drought
Blast
Gall midge
Army worm
Rodents
Zinc deficiency
Leaffolder
Yield losses in rice cultivation
•Stresses Yield loss (as % of production)
________________________________
•Pest infestation
6.8
•Problem soils
6.4
•Water stresses
9.9
•Average loss
23.1
________________________________
New Farming land?
NTS Insight October 2010
Can Asia Learn from Brazil’s Agricultural Success?
Over the last four decades, Brazil has transformed its agricultural sector to become the first tropical
agricultural giant and the first to challenge the dominance of the world’s major food exporters. This paper
examines the secrets of Brazil’s success and ponders whether Asia should try to emulate the Brazilian
model to help achieve food security for its people and contribute to an increased level of self-sufficiency
in the region.
By Margarita Escaler and Paul Teng.
Coffee trees cultivated under irrigation in Brazil's cerrado farms.
www.rsis.edu.sg/nts
Credit: Anderson Galvao
References
•
<http://www.rsis.edu.sg/NTS/resources/research_papers/MacArthur%20Working%20Paper_Paul_
Teng_and_Margarita_Escaler.pdf> Working Paper.
Food (In)Security in Urban Populations By Paul Teng and Margarita Escaler The food crisis at
the end of the last decade and the resulting food riots that occurred in cities all over the world
exposed the vulnerability and fragility of the current global food system and highlighted the
increasing problem of urban food security. Urban households were among the hardest hit by the
food and economic crises as they saw their purchasing power decline drastically. Though
aggregate world food availability was relatively good during this period, access to that food by the
urban poor had been severely compromised. This working paper aims to analyse the factors that
influence urban food security and argues the case for why an urban focus will increasingly matter
in the international discourse on food security. A truly “systems approach” will be needed to study
and deal with the many inter-related factors and players in food security. Too often have
professional communities maintained disciplinary barriers when addressing such complex
problems.
•
http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/Perspective/RSIS0922010.pdf
Commentary. Facing Food Shortages: Urban Food Security in An Age of Constraints
Abstract: Seventy per cent of the world’s population are expected to live in urban areas by 2050.
Food production to feed this larger, more urban and richer population will have to be done in the
face of changing consumption patterns, the impact of climate change and the growing scarcity of
land and water. It is time that urban centres take charge to usher in a new era of “urban green
revolution”.
Climate change impacts on agriculture in APEC economies
(Regional/sub-regional)
• Reduced crop, pastoral and rangeland production (South and
east Australia; southeast Asia); reduced yields of rain-fed wheat
and rice (southeast Asia); Northward shift of agric. zones
(China); 40% projected decline in irrigated rice in central and
southern Japan;
• Reduced grain quality (Australia); up to 30% grain yield
reduction by 2080 (Mexico); 73-78% reduction in coffee
production by 2050 in Veracruz (Mexico);
• Decline in potentially good agricultural land (East Asia);
• Loss of farm land due to sea level rise (Southeast and East
Asia); >1 million people to lose land in Mekong delta
Source: IPCC 2007
CC :MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION
Conceptual framework: CC and Agriculture/Food Security
• Mitigating causes of climate change: Reducing sources of
– CO2
– CH4
– Others
• Mitigating symptoms and effects on agricultural production:
– Water (Excess, Deficit, Irregularity) – Drought, Submergence
– Temperature – Ambient, Water, Soil
– Dimming – Solar radiation
– Rising Ocean levels
• Mitigating effects on food security
– Production and Production Process(es)
– Supply of unprocessed agricultural produce for food (Diversion to
biofuel)
– Distribution
Mitigating causes of climate change -Methane
Reducing methane emissions to atmosphere
• Rice: c 13%
– Changing rice plant architecture and anatomy through
conventional breeding and biotechnology
– Changing farming system from paddy rice to dryland rice
• Livestock: c 17%
– Changing diet composition of rumen livestock
– Changing efficiency and nature of digestive process
through breeding with biotechnology tools
What biotechnologies?
What enablers?
Biotechnology & Climate Change Mitigation
• Reduced fuel consumption on farms through
– Reduced need to spray crops – Fuel savings in 2007
through BT led to a reduction of 1.1 million tons of CO2
– Reduced tillage or no-tillage – leads to reduced CO2
emissions of 89 or 36 kg/ha respectively
• Enhanced carbon sequestration
– More carbon is sequestered through no tillage
• Reduced fertilizer use and N2O emissions
– Nitrogen use efficiency in crops
• Livestock and manure management
• Biofuel crop development
• Third generation biofuel development
Biotechnology & Climate Change Adaptation
• Trait improvement:
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
heat and drought tolerance (Drought-tolerant maize)
waterlogging tolerance
frost, pest and disease resistance
water-use efficiency (e.g. Water-efficient Maize for Africa)
nutrient-use efficiency
early vigor
reduced dependence on low temperatures to trigger
flowering or seed germination
• Reducing water loss from agriculture: Less ploughing
means trapping moisture
Key Messages - I
• Adverse impacts of climate change on agriculture are of great
concern. Food security will remain elusive in several
countries by 2050, if suitable policies and measures for
adaptation to climate change are not in place.
• Agricultural adaptations to climate change are crucial to
achieve not only food security but also water security, and
even energy security, thereby social security &
sustainability.
• Agriculture and forestry sectors contribute around 30% of global
GHG emissions; Their mitigation potential is comparable to
industry and energy supply, especially in developing countries,
and more than that in transport and waste sectors.
• Agriculture offers many low-cost GHG mitigation opportunities.
Income from carbon offsets from agriculture, if properly
recognized in the post-2012 climate regime, can nearly meet
adaptation costs.
Food Security: geographic connectivity
Conceptualization of the inter-relationships between Food
Supply and Demand at regional and global levels -Distribution
ASEAN
ASIA-PACIFIC
EUROPE & AMERICAS
Global Food Supply Chain
Crop
Item
2006/07
2009/10
Corn (Maize)
Global/Asia Production, Million M T
698.0
810.9/190.1
Global Exports, Million M T
(% of global production)
84.4
(12%)
88.8
(11%)
Asian Imports, Million MT
(% of Global Exports)
43.3
(51%)
36.2
(41%)
Global/Asia Production, Million M T
417.0
441.0/383.4
Global Exports, Million M T
(% of global production)
29.0
(7%)
30.1
(7%)
Asian Imports, Million MT
(% of Global Exports)
7.4
(25%)
7.9
(26%)
Global Production/Asia, Million M T
594.0
680.0/ 242.1
Global Exports, Million M T
(% of global production)
110.0
(19%)
134.0
(19.8%)
Asian Imports, Million MT
(% of Global Exports)
28.8
(26%)
35.0
(26%)
Global Production, Million M T
153.8
163.8
Global Exports, Million M T
(% of global production)
54.6
(35%)
55.3
(34%)
Asian Imports, Million MT
(% of Global Exports)
12.8
(24%)
13.9
(25%)
Rice (Milled)
Wheat
Soybean (For Meal)
How secure is the world food system??
• Five companies control 90% of the global trade in grain
• Three companies control 85% of the global tea market
• Five companies control 80% of the global trade in bananas
• Almost all commercial bananas in the world today are just one variety
-- Cavendish
• > 90% of milk in the U.S.A. comes from 1 breed of cattle
• > 90% of eggs from 1 breed of layer-hen
• 1 company owns >90% of the world’s patents filed on genetically
modified seed
Dimension III: Economic Access
Trends in World Hunger
Source: The State of Food Insecurity in the World, FAO (2009). Value for 2009 is a projection.
Where do the Hungry Live ?
Source: The State of Food Insecurity in the World, FAO (2009)..
Jeffrey Sachs. 2005. The end of Poverty. Penguin
Percentage change, 2006-2008
Food Price Crisis
Source: The State of Food Insecurity in the World, FAO (2009).
What governments fear!
Riots, instability spread as food prices skyrocket
14 April, 2008
(CNN) -- Riots from Haiti to Bangladesh to Egypt over
the soaring costs of basic foods have brought the
issue to a boiling point and catapulted it to the
forefront of the world's attention, the head of an
agency focused on global development said Monday.
"This is the world's big story," said Jeffrey Sachs,
director of Columbia University's Earth Institute.
"The finance ministers were in shock, almost in panic
this weekend," he said on CNN's "American
Morning," in a reference to top economic officials
who gathered in Washington. "There are riots all
over the world in the poor countries ... and, of
course, our own poor are feeling it in the United
States.“
World Bank President Robert Zoellick has said the
surging costs could mean "seven lost years" in the
fight against worldwide poverty.
Dimension IV:
Utilization
(Nutritive Value, Quality,
Safety)
World Food Programme: Basic Terms and Definitions
• UNDERNOURISHMENT: describes the status of persons,
whose food intake regularly provides less than their minimum
energy requirements (MDG indicator of Hunger)
• UNDERWEIGHT: Weight for Age, measured in children
under 5 years of age. (MDG indicator of Hunger)
– Moderate = 2 std deviations below the reference standard;
– Severe = 3 std deviations below the reference standard;
• WASTING: Weight for Height. Measure of acute
malnutrition.
• STUNTING: Height for Age. Measure of chronic
malnutrition
Low Income Food Deficit Countries (LIFDC), FAO)
Courtesy: Michael Sheinkman, WFP, Thailand
Prevalence of Undernourished (MDG indicator)
Food Security Atlas – SE Asia
Action:
Safety Nets and Cash
Food Aid from surplus countries
Biofortified crops?
Capture
Aquaculture
Fish
Animal Feed
Poultry
Mammals
Biofuels
Natural
Ecosystems
3. Access to Food
(Income)
2.
Access to Food
Other Uses
(Market Supply Chain)
1b.Availability
(Food Supply)
Distribution
Production, Imports
Stockpiles
Processing/
Distribution Losses
Trade
Urban
Food Security
4. Utility
Safety/Quality/
Nutritive Value
1a. Availability
(Primary Production)
Crops/Animals
Inputs
Household
Food
Security
Demand for
Food
Science/
Technology
Sunshine
Labor Land Water
Fragility of Agro-ecosystems
Climate Change
Competition for Land
Changing Demographics
(e.g. fewer/ageing farmers)
4 – Dimensional Food
Security Conceptual Model
Population Increases
Diet Diversification
Lifestyle Changes
Urbanization
The International Conference on Asian Food Security (ICAFS)
Date: 10 – 12 August(http://www.rsis.edu.sg/nts/article.asp?id=163)
2011
Venue: Grand Copthorne Waterfront Hotel Singapore.
The International Conference on Asia Food Security (ICAFS), seeks to bring together
stakeholders from government, non-governmental organisations, the business
community, academic institutions and other interested parties to explore the prevailing
challenges and opportunities for promoting long-term food security in Asia. ICAFS has
secured the presence of leading experts and practitioners in the food security field to
discuss issues ranging from urban-rural food interdependencies and small-scale
agricultural progress to cutting-edge agro-technologies and advancements in food
processing, distribution and market assessment. This wide-ranging scope ensures that
ICAFS will provide valuable information across a comprehensive set of food security
topics.
Much more information on ICAFS can be accessed through the webpage on the
International Conference on Asian Food Security (ICAFS) ‘Feeding Asia in the 21st
Century: Building Urban-Rural Alliances’, including details on the conference schedule,
confirmed speakers and registration procedure.
ICAFS is also welcoming paper submissions across a broad list of food security topics,
which is likewise explained in greater detail here. Please do not hesitate to contact the
conference convenors (contact information listed in the webpage) if you have any
questions relating to ICAFS.
About the Centre: