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The New Ocean Management Paradigm Lessons from the Scotian Shelf Bob O’Boyle Bedford Institute of Oceanography Canada 20th Century Ocean Management Paradigm • Sector by sector approach –Objectives related to a sector’s impact & requirements –Management by sector with little consideration of cross – sector impacts Sector = Fisheries, oil & gas, recreation, etc Consensus for New Approach • Ecosystems are 'complex systems' that require new way of doing business – Ecosystem responses cannot be predicted by understanding individual mechanics of component parts • Need to manage for objectives related to multiple ecosystem services – Sustainable fisheries, clean water, recreation, etc We are in midst of paradigm shift in ocean management Early in process but outline is emerging New Ocean Management Paradigm • Ecosystem approach to management (EAM) or Ecosystem Based Management – Ecologically - based principles – Cumulative & long-term impacts – Cross – sector management • Management strategy evaluation (MSE) – Comparative performance of candidate management strategies – Consideration of uncertainty in each element of management system Management Strategy Evaluation Operational Module Ecosystem Implementation Management Strategy Assessment, control rules & implementation Control Module Monitoring Assessment Decision Making Control Rules From McAllister et. al. 1999 Objectives for delivery of ecosystem services essential to new paradigm EAM How to identify in face of conflicting priorities MSE How to achieve with state of current knowledge Ecosystem Objectives Types of Ecosystem Objectives • Conceptual (policy level) – Understandable to broad audience – E.g. Restore Coral Community Biodiversity to pre1980 levels • Operational (regulatory level) – Links conceptual objective & management action – E.g. Limit Area (sq Km) disturbed of Coral Community to 5000 sq km Indicator Reference Point Ecosystem Objectives Hierarchy Overarching Conceptual Objectives Link to Treaties, Acts, Legislation & Policy Regional Conceptual Objectives Regional Operational Objectives Link to Overarching COs Regional Priorities Monitor Ecosystem States Control Cumulative Impacts E.g. Gulf of Maine Sector Operational Objectives Control Sector Impacts E.g. Fishery Scotian Shelf Overarching Objectives • Conserve biodiversity – Conserve community diversity – Recover species at risk of extinction – Conserve subpopulation & genetic structure • Maintain productivity – Maintain linkages along food chain (e.g. predators & prey) – conserve ecosystem components at each level of food chain • Conserve habitat – Conserve physical & chemical properties Lessons learned Overarching Objectives • Hierarchical structure to objectives useful – Transparent translation of general intent of management to sector management actions – Coordinates management of cumulative impacts as long as same objectives used throughout hierarchy • Don’t fret about objectives structure itself – Different ways to package same concepts as long as ecosystem structure & function addressed Issue for conference What are overarching objectives for Gulf of Maine? Regional Objectives Ecosystem Characterization • Ecosystem description – Key components – Key linkages Useful to synthesize in model Scotian Shelf changes during 1980s & 1990s modeled Regional Objectives Threats Analysis Issue for conference What are sectors & their impacts in Gulf of Maine? Regional Objectives Scotian Shelf • Initial set of objectives developed through bottom – up stakeholder engagement process • DFO Science undertaking top – down process independent of stakeholder process – Intent is to adjust initial set based upon highest priorities for conservation (ecological & biological significant areas & species) Issue still to be addressed is how to marry two sets of priorities Lessons Learned Regional objectives • Develop conceptual model of ecosystem – Statement of current knowledge • Develop scenarios of potential future states – Focus on key components & thresholds to watch for – Engage stakeholders in direction of management From Link et. Al., 2002 • Risk analysis to identify ecosystem components to protect – Develop indicators, reference points & management actions for high risk impacts RISK impact * probability of not achieving objective Issues for conference What are priority conservation issues for Gulf of Maine? What is role of science & stakeholders in setting conservation priorities for Gulf of Maine? Sector Implementation • Regional objectives being incorporated into 40+ Scotian Shelf fishery management plans – Identifies what issues are being addressed – Identifies gaps that need attention Georges Bank GF Productivity Primary Community Population Biodiversity Biotope/seascape Species Population Habitat Bottom Water Column HF SF L/CF Limit alteration of essential nutrient concentrations affecting primary production Limit trophic level catch biomass with respect to trophic demands of higher levels Limit total catch biomass within system production capacity Keep fishing mortality moderate Permit sufficient spawning biomass to evade exploitation Promote positive biomass change when biomass is low Manage % size/age/sex of capture Prevent disturbing activity in spawning areas/seasons Manage discarded catch Limit % area disturbed of seascape/biotope types Limit incidental bycatch or mortality Minimize change in distribution of invasive species Distribute population component catch as a % of component biomass Limit % area disturbed of habitat types Limit amounts of contaminants, toxins and waste introduced in habitat Minimize amount of lost of gear Control noise level/frequency with respect to species of risk Action Needed Addressed Lessons Learned Sector Implementation • Incorporate regional objectives into existing sector management planning & activities – Identify gaps & address • Undertake Management Strategy Evaluation to determine most robust means for each sector to achieve objectives Governance Decision-makers Fisheries Science Stakeholder advisory group Oil & Gas Transport NGOs Forum for broadbased engagement Issue: How much consensus? Public Lessons Learned Governance • Stakeholders – Broad-based to represent diversity – Focus to facilitate objective setting & scenario development • Regulators – Implementation of new paradigm requires regulators to be on side: cultural shift • Build governance structures on what exists – Illustrate how existing activities fit into new paradigm Lessons Learned (cont'd) Governance • Science –Use objectives to define key science priorities & link funding to management deliverables –Design science programs for new paradigm: may involve new institutions Issue for conference What is an effective governance structure for the Gulf of Maine? What Science is needed? • Ecosystems are complex systems – Unpredictable future states – Develop scenarios of potential future states • Ecosystem modeling to identify – key ecosystem components & thresholds that cause changes in state – Important system feedbacks – Linkages between scales – Phase of adaptive cycle Ecosystem Models • PLAUSIBLE hypotheses of ecosystem Synthesis of current understanding functioning to explore importance of – Diversity of communities – Functional groups & redundancies within communities – Linkages amongst communities Community A Community D Community B Community D Simulate plausible ecosystem states & how system might change between these Adaptive Cycle Current knowledge will go only so far Need new theory & understanding Biodiversity • Community structure & dynamics – How many communities are there, are they stable over time, is their spatial distribution predictable, how do they react to ocean climate? • Genetic processes – What is impact of human activities on genetic selection? E.g. fishing on gadoid growth in Northwest Atlantic What are relative roles of environment & genetic selection on haddock growth? NW Atlantic NE Atlantic 4.0 4.0 5Z 4X bof 4X wss 4VW 3.5 3.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 1970 NE Arctic North Sea Faroes Icelandic 0.0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Weight (kg) at Age 7 Observed in other species e.g. cod Productivity & Food Chain Eastern Scotian Shelf • Are food chains controlled top-down (by predators) or bottom-up (by food supply?) • Evidence to suggest that overfishing could flip ecosystem from bottom-up to top-down – Need quantitative understanding of relationships amongst exploitation, biodiversity & ocean climate + - + - + - + - Productivity & Reference Points • What are consequences for reference points of longterm ecosystem changes? – What should current reference points be? e.g. Eastern Scotian Shelf cod Carrying Capacity Rosenberg et. al, 2005 Spatial processes (small to large) • Habitat - productivity linkage – How are these linked? What is distribution of habitats of differing sensitivities? Why are they different & how do they respond to impact? • Climate change – Promises to be most significant future impact on our ecosystems – Need to understand linkage between Shelf oceanography & broader climatology e.g. Influence of North Atlantic Oscillation on Gulf of Maine NAO Winter Anomaly NAO Winter Anomaly 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 • Linkage of Scotian Shelf / Gulf of Maine with North Atlantic atmospheric system • Different response to NAO north & south of Halifax Periodic? Predictable? 1970 - 2003 bottom C0 differences (neg - pos anomaly) Issue for conference What are science needs of new paradigm for Gulf of Maine? Summary • In midst of ocean management paradigm shift • Will take time & effort to change – need to stay the course • Challenges but opportunities too Thank You! When NAO Positive Tendency for Northern Transition Zone to move South & Southern Transition Zones to move North 60 55 Bottom Community Transition Zones 50 Newfoundland 45 40 35 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 Are these patterns Predictable? How stable are these communities? Community Structure & Dynamics Identified transitions in bottom communities consistent with circulation & mixing patterns Movement in transition zones in response to North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) From Mahon et. al. 1998 Species Richness implicated (Frank et. al., 2007) Overfishing • Reduces species richness • May cause flip from bottom – up to top – down control Need to develop quantitative understanding of relationships amongst exploitation & species richness & ocean climate Spatial Processes Shelf Scale Natural bottom disturbance, productivity & bottom community distribution