Download Role of marketing perspective in making India from $2 Trillion to $20

Full Paper submitted for the consideration of 40th Skoch Summit (23rd Thinkers & Writers Forum) on “Making India a $20 Trillion Economy”
on 11th – 12th June 2015 at Mumbai.
Role of marketing perspective in making India from $2 Trillion
to $20 trillion economy
*P. Nagaraju
Introduction
In order to accomplish the objective of making India from $2 Trillion to $20 Trillion economy
i.e.10 times and it may take 25 years to reach the goal of India’s Prime Minister Mr. Narendra
Modi ji, the major sectors including manufacturing industries, agriculture, textiles, ICT as well
service industry should grow
accordingly as well the market economy for the products.
Economic growth patterns in the country that are likely to support international marketing
operations on a much larger scale are outlined.
The economy of India i.e. mixed economy is as diverse as it is large, with a number of major
sectors including manufacturing industries, agriculture, textiles and handicrafts, and services.
Agriculture is a major component of the Indian economy, as over 66% of the Indian population
earns its livelihood from this area. However, the service sector is greatly expanding and has
started to assume an increasingly important role. The fact that the Indian speaking population is
growing by the day means that India has become a hub of outsourcing activities for some of the
major economies of the world including the United Kingdom and the United States. Other areas
where India is expected to make progress include manufacturing, construction of ships,
pharmaceuticals,
aviation,
biotechnology,
tourism,
nanotechnology,
retailing
and
telecommunications. Growth rates in these sectors are expected to increase dramatically. As the
free market principles were accepted role of government in Indian economy changed from being
a controller to regulator. Present government say minimum government – maximum
*P. Nagaraju, Director’s PS, SOTST, IGNOU, Maidan Garhi, New Delhi – 110068.
governance. But still the role of government is relevant as government is the one which decides
about the various factors controlling our economy and decides the rules and regulations keeping
in mind the welfare of the public as growth in economy. Therefore government after opening up
of economy did not open the sectors which are still in nascent stages and needs some time to
become competitive to the foreign players. Apart from this government brings new schemes to
help person in personal and professional avenues. Govt. of India’s policy mantra of "maximum
governance, minimum government", means government has no business to be in business and it
is needed to "focus government on the things that are required of the state' and secondly "achieve
competence in government so that the state delivers on the things it sets out to do". The
government must nurture an ecosystem where the economy is primed for growth; and growth
promotes all-round development. India's growth momentum was thus attributed to some extent
to the global economic boom and the liquidity surge. According to some estimates, at least one
or two percentage points in India's overall growth were certainly due to the buoyant global
economic factors.
With the economic liberalization (LPG) initiated in the 1990s, the Indian government has
tentatively begun to vacate some of the commanding heights of the economy, where state
responsibility for the provision of services was synonymous with state ownership. The new
approach makes space for public private partnerships in provision of infrastructure and services
combined with extensive state regulation for safeguarding user interests.
Study significance
To achieve the goal of $20 trillion economy is a toughest task with a long duration
period, the market perspective i.e. national and international for the domestic products
and services shall play a dominant role to achieve this goal. Amitabh Kant, Secretary,
Department of Industrial Promotion and Policy, opines - While India needs a 2nd Green
Revolution in agriculture, it needs to drive its manufacturing and urbanize faster to attain
9-10 per cent growth for two decades or more to lift a vast section of population out of
poverty.
*P. Nagaraju, Director’s PS, SOTST, IGNOU, Maidan Garhi, New Delhi – 110068.
The true challenge for India is too really to grow at 9-10 per cent per annum year after
year for two decades of more to lift a vast section of population out of poverty. India has
grown at those rates but grown relatively for a short period. Therefore, to have a
sustained high growth for three decades, is a challenge. And these challenges will happen
at a point when 700 million people in the 3-4 decades will move from rural to urban
areas. The dominant feature of our growth will be new urbanization. And this will happen
at a point time when India will be passing through a window of demographic transition,
which rarely happens in history. India’s population, whi ch is 70 per cent below the age of
32 years, will keep getting younger and younger till 2040. The aging population in the
West and India’s population getting younger is one of the most politically; economically
and socially salient feature of our present time and this leads to demographic transition
and actually leads to a social transformation.
In global rankings, too, there will be relatively small shifts — India will have become
bigger than Russia and Brazil (two of the BRIC economies), and should also overtake
Canada and Spain. It will therefore become the eighth largest economy in the world, as
against the twelfth largest today. And per capita income will have doubled to become a
little better than where Sri Lanka’s is today!
The objectives of the Study are to:
•
Examine the market economy of major countries like US, China and Japan;
•
Analyze the trends of such economies and reasons thereof;
•
Analyze the strengths and weaknesses of the Indian economy to achieve goal; and
•
Appraise the India’s efforts to achieve the goal
•
Research Question
•
How the marketing perspective will assist India’s economy to reach from $2 trillions to
$20 trillions economy..?
•
For the $20 trillion dream to be realized, it is important, therefore, to understand the pace
of growth that would be needed and for how long that pace has to be sustained. A simple
*P. Nagaraju, Director’s PS, SOTST, IGNOU, Maidan Garhi, New Delhi – 110068.
arithmetical calculation shows that India's GDP could grow to $20 trillion if the average
annual economic growth for the next 25 years is maintained at 9.65 per cent. To achieve
$20 trillion economy in India and strategic marketing to attract world countries {FDIs} to
invest in India as well maintain India’s economy in constant growth.
•
Methodology
•
The Study looked into the broad trends last 10 to 20 years Major economies like China,
US,
Japan to compare with India’s economy which provides some suggestions
particularly with reference to economy market perspective.
Present scenario
India is an emerging economy which has witnessed unprecedented levels of economic
expansion, alongside China, Russia, Mexico and Brazil. India is a cost effective and labor
intensive economy, and has benefited immensely from outsourcing of work from
developed countries, and has a strong manufacturing and export oriented industrial
framework.
According to International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) recent publication of Regional
Economic Outlook (REO) of Asia and Pacific, the outlook for the region remains
favorable and is projected to remain the global growth leader over the medium term.
India’s growth outlook
Indian economy has made a remarkable turnaround in response to higher political certainty,
improved business confidence and lower commodity prices; real GDP growth (on a 2011/12
National Accounts basis) is projected to rise to 7.2% in 2014-15, accelerating to 7.5% in 201516. Domestic and external vulnerabilities have moderated, the fiscal position has begun to
improve, and a resumption of capital inflows has allowed a significant rise in foreign reserves.
This confluence of achievements has made India one of the bright spots in the global economy.
India’s Economic Outlook Projection
*P. Nagaraju, Director’s PS, SOTST, IGNOU, Maidan Garhi, New Delhi – 110068.
2007
GDP Growth
2008
2009
2010
9.40% 7.30% 5.40% 7.20%
One overriding fact will define the coming decade for India: the high probability that it will
continue to achieve economic growth at an annual rate of 9 per cent, give or take a percentage
point. That will compare with an average of about 7.5 per cent for the first decade of the new
century, and about 6 per cent in the last decade of the 20th. In grand, macro-economic terms,
that does not sound like a seminal shift, for GDP will go up from Rs 60 lakh crore today (about
$1.3 trillion) to 2.2 times that figure a decade from now. India’s GDP in 2020, at just under $3
trillion at today’s prices and exchange rates, would be less than two-thirds of what China has
already achieved in 2009: $4.6 trillion.
Key to India is that the share of manufacturing must grow to make the India growth story a
success. Now, services account for about 55 per cent of GDP while manufacturing share is just
16 per cent. While manufacturing accounts for 16 per cent of GDP, it accounts for just 12 per
cent of employment. Unless the share of manufacturing grows to 25 per cent of GDP and create
100 million jobs, it will be very difficult for India to grow and create massive employment. No
country in the world has grown on the back of agriculture. Services have its own limitations.
And, therefore, only manufacturing has to take the lead. If you look at world history, whether it
is Japan or Korea or Singapore or even China, all have grown on the back of manufacturing.
While India needs a 2nd Green Revolution in agriculture, it needs to drive its manufacturing.
The Green Revolution refers to a series of research, and development, and technology transfer
initiatives, occurring between the 1940s and the late 1960s, that increased agricultural production
worldwide, particularly in the developing world, beginning most markedly in the late 1960s.
The India’s economy has changed in other ways as well. The population and the labour force
have shifted dramatically from villages to cities, from fields to factories, and, above all, from
manufacture to service industries. In today's economy, the providers of personal and public
services far outnumber producers of agricultural and manufactured goods. Where development
is employment-generating; and employment is enabled by skills. Where skills are synced with
*P. Nagaraju, Director’s PS, SOTST, IGNOU, Maidan Garhi, New Delhi – 110068.
production; and production is benchmarked to quality. Where quality meets global standards;
and meeting global standards drives prosperity. Most importantly, this prosperity is for the
welfare of all. That is the concept of economic good governance and all round development.
But Make in India cannot happen without Digital India because India has been a reluctant
manufacturer and a reluctant urbaniser. If India needs to achieve a quantum jump, the broadband,
the spectrum behind it, the country needs to use technology to leapfrog. What Digital India aims
to do is to provide the technology, the broadband and the spectrum behind it. But manufacturing
and technology alone cannot help you—you can grow faster but that will be jobless growth.
What Skill India does is to create skills for a vast segment of population so that as India
manufactures, as India urbanises, as Indians moves from rural to urban areas—as it happens in
economic development—you keep creating jobs. This is what happens when economy expands.
Marketing perspective
Marketing is communicating the value of a product, service or brand to customers, for the
purpose of promoting or selling that product, service, or brand. Marketing techniques include
choosing target markets through market analysis and market segmentation, as well as
understanding consumer behavior and advertising a product's value to the customer. From a
societal point of view, marketing is the link between a society's material requirements and
its economic patterns of response. Marketing satisfies these needs and wants through exchange
processes and building long-term relationships. Marketing blends art and applied science (such
as behavioural sciences) and makes use of information technology. Marketing is applied in
enterprise and organizations through marketing management.
Marketing as a functional discipline of business may be understood as a dynamic process of
society through which business enterprise is integrated productively with society’s purposes and
human values. It is in marketing, as we now understand it, that we satisfy individual and social
values, needs and wants – be it through production of goods, supplying of services, fostering
innovation, or creating satisfaction. Marketing, as we have come to understand it, has its focus
on the customer, that is, on the individual making decisions within a social structure and within a
*P. Nagaraju, Director’s PS, SOTST, IGNOU, Maidan Garhi, New Delhi – 110068.
personal and social value system. Marketing is therefore, the process through which economy is
integrated into society to serve human needs.
One of the great successes of recent years in advanced economies has been the development of
thriving markets in mortgages and consumer credit. All are seeing the downside of poor risk
assessment and over-lending at the moment, but one should not forget the benefits that come
from increased access to credit.
A marketing system consists of two major factors viz: external environmental constraints, and
controllable forces within the company. The external environmental constraints, among others
include the following: competition; social and ethical forces; political and legal forces, smart
cities etc. Others are market demand, technology, and distribution structure. The controllable
forces within the company on the other hand consist of two sets of internal, controllable forces:
the company’s resources in non-marketing areas and the components of the marketing mix.
Whereas the company’s resources in non-marketing areas are made up of the firm’s public
image, location, production, personnel, finance, research and development patents; the
components of the firm’s marketing mix are: the product, the price structure, the promotional
activities and some features of the distribution system. A firm manipulates its controllable forces
both in non marketing and marketing areas, while responding to its environments –
uncontrollable forces. The goal of the system is to reach preselected market targets and to satisfy
the consumer’s needs in a manner profitable to the company as well to the country’s economy.
The main discussion in this topic is that how well-developed markets (capital) generate many
economic benefits, including higher productivity growth, greater employment opportunities, and
improved macroeconomic stability. To focus on these significant benefits, the three issues are:
(1) the importance of markets in facilitating superior economic performance, (2) the markets do
foster job creation, and (3) the necessary preconditions for the development of well-functioning
markets. The analysis focuses on two particular sets of comparisons. First, within the United
States, how has macroeconomic performance improved over time as the capital markets have
become more dominant? Second, across countries, can one explain the superior macroeconomic
performance evident in recent years in countries that have well-developed capital markets such
as the UK and the US relative to countries such as Germany and Japan, in which the capital
*P. Nagaraju, Director’s PS, SOTST, IGNOU, Maidan Garhi, New Delhi – 110068.
markets are much less developed? The impact of capital market development on the economic
performance of the United States because the capital markets are most well-developed in this
country.
Present need of smart cities
If one look at the history of the world, in 1975, China and India were at the same l evel of
growth. China was also a reluctant manufacturer and a reluctant urbanizer. But in 1975,
the Chinese Communist Party decided they will manufacture for the rest of the world and
they will urbanise. So, they started creating new manufacturing cities. When they started
creating manufacturing cities, people moved from rural areas to urban areas. People
moved, young workers moved, wives and children moved to new manufacturing cities.
Since 1975, China has created 400 new cities—its mind-boggling. China grew at an
average 10 per cent per annum. If you grow at 10 per cent, you double your income in 7
years. Therefore, between 1975 and 2010, China’s income grew 16 folds. It lifted almost
800 million people above the poverty line. Therefore, India has no oth er option but to
grow at 10 per cent per annum and that’s feasible.
For India’s GDP to grow at that level, manufacturing must grow at 14-15 per cent and,
therefore, Make in India is a very critical programme for the government. Make in India has
identified sectors, it is working in partnership with the private sector, we are working in
partnership with different ministries across the government and its ambition is that
manufacturing must drive India’s growth. And, therefore, to my mind we need unleashing
of creative energy in India. India must become a nation of job creators rather than bein g
job seekers.
India must create young entrepreneurs. And, we need to unleash the energy of India in
terms of entrepreneurship. India should not be a nation of manufacturers but should also
become a nation of design and innovation. And, actually the innovative spirit of India
must push the growth to a high trajectory.
*P. Nagaraju, Director’s PS, SOTST, IGNOU, Maidan Garhi, New Delhi – 110068.
Zero-Defect, Zero-Effect
No one can’t be a manufacturer without being competitive. This is globalized economy
and we are in a globalized market. Every country has to penetrate the global market and
be a part of global supply chain. So, India can’t manufacture without being competitive.
Being a reluctant manufacturer and a reluctant urbanize, India can use technology to
leapfrog, it can skip some processes of growth.
International outlook
According to the REO for Asia and the Pacific, growth in Asia and the Pacific will continue to
outperform the rest of the world, and is expected to remain steady at 5.6% in 2015, slowing
slightly to 5.5% in 2016. Growth will be driven by domestic demand, underpinned by healthy
labor markets, low interest rates, and the recent fall in oil prices. The global recovery, while
moderate and uneven, will continue to support Asia ’s exports.

Growth in China is projected to reduce to 6.8% in 2015 and to 6.3% in 2016 as the
correction in the residential and related sectors continues to push the investments down.

The Japanese economy is expected to recover modestly under current policies. Growth is
expected to increase up to about 1% in 2015 and 1.2% in 2016, marginally faster than
potential, underpinned by recovery of private consumption and strengthening exports.

Within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), while Malaysia is expected
to slow, the Philippines should witness an increase in growth. Overall, lower commodity
prices are a net positive for Asia, although several commodity exporters (Australia ,
Indonesia , Malaysia , and New Zealand ) will be adversely impacted.
China’s economy: A remarkable transformation
China’s emergence as a leading world economy is not a complete surprise. Economists like
Angus Maddison had predicted its resurgence some time ago. The most remarkable aspect of this
transformation has been the role of the private sector in achieving such a high rate of growth.
*P. Nagaraju, Director’s PS, SOTST, IGNOU, Maidan Garhi, New Delhi – 110068.
Nonetheless, as can be expected following such a substantial re-orientation of what was once a
state dominated economy, there are challenges ahead.
The pace of economic change in China has been extremely rapid since the start of economic
reforms just over 25 years ago. According to official statistics, economic growth has averaged
9.5% over the past two decades and seems likely to continue at that pace for some time. National
income has been doubling every eight years. Such an increase in output represents one of the
most sustained and rapid economic transformations seen in the world economy in the past 50
years.
Increased public spending has helped lessen some of the inequalities in economic
development. Programmes are now in place to reduce taxation and illegal fees in rural areas, so
boosting incomes. But these policies need to be complemented by a reform of fiscal transfers to
reduce the gaps between expenditure requirements and local revenues in the poorer parts of the
country. Such initiatives could be usefully complemented by efforts to create a national, or at
least provincial, labour market. At the moment, it is difficult for workers and their families to
move permanently to a different area and if they succeed their right to rent their farm may be
forfeited without compensation. Even for a temporary move, many permits are required and
often local publicly-provided services are either not available to migrants or only available on
unfavourable terms.
US Economy
The United States is said to have a mixed economy because privately owned businesses and
government both play important roles. Indeed, some of the most enduring debates of American
economic history focus on the relative roles of the public and private sectors.
Private vs. Public Ownership
The American free enterprise system emphasizes private ownership. Private businesses produce
most goods and services, and almost two-thirds of the nation's total economic output goes to
individuals for personal use (the remaining one-third is bought by government and business).
The consumer role is so great, in fact, that the nation is sometimes characterized as having a
"consumer economy."
*P. Nagaraju, Director’s PS, SOTST, IGNOU, Maidan Garhi, New Delhi – 110068.
This emphasis on private ownership arises, in part, from American beliefs about personal
freedom. From the time the nation was created, Americans have feared excessive government
power, and they have sought to limit government's authority over individuals -- including its role
in the economic realm. In addition, Americans generally believe that an economy characterized
by private ownership is likely to operate more efficiently than one with substantial government
ownership.
When economic forces are unfettered, Americans believe, supply and demand
determine the prices of goods and services. Prices, in turn, tell businesses what to produce; if
people want more of a particular good than the economy is producing, the price of the good rises.
That catches the attention of new or other companies that, sensing an opportunity to earn profits,
start producing more of that good.
On the other hand, if people want less of the good, prices fall and less competitive producers
either go out of business or start producing different goods. Such a system is called a market
economy. A socialist economy, in contrast, is characterized by more government ownership and
central planning. Most Americans are convinced that socialist economies are inherently less
efficient because government, which relies on tax revenues, is far less likely than private
businesses to heed price signals or to feel the discipline imposed by market forces.
Limits to Free Enterprise
There are limits to free enterprise, however. Americans have always believed that some services
are better performed by public rather than private enterprise. For instance, in the United States,
government is primarily responsible for the administration of justice, education (although there
are many private schools and training centers), the road system, social statistical reporting, and
national defense. In addition, government often is asked to intervene in the economy to correct
situations in which the price system does not work. It regulates "natural monopolies," for example,
and it uses antitrust laws to control or break up other business combinations that become so
powerful that they can surmount market forces. Government also addresses issues beyond the
reach of market forces. It provides welfare and unemployment benefits to people who cannot
support themselves, either because they encounter problems in their personal lives or lose their
jobs as a result of economic upheaval; it pays much of the cost of medical care for the aged and
*P. Nagaraju, Director’s PS, SOTST, IGNOU, Maidan Garhi, New Delhi – 110068.
those who live in poverty; it regulates private industry to limit air and water pollution; it provides
low-cost loans to people who suffer losses as a result of natural disasters; and it has played the
leading role in the exploration of space, which is too expensive for any private enterprise to
handle.
In this mixed economy, individuals can help guide the economy not only through the choices they
make as consumers but through the votes they cast for officials who shape economic policy. In
recent years, consumers have voiced concerns about product safety, environmental threats posed
by certain industrial practices, and potential health risks citizens may face; government has
responded by creating agencies to protect consumer interests and promote the general public
welfare.
The U.S. economy has changed in other ways as well. The population and the labor force have
shifted dramatically away from farms to cities, from fields to factories, and, above all, to service
industries. In today's economy, the providers of personal and public services far outnumber
producers of agricultural and manufactured goods. As the economy has grown more complex,
statistics also reveal over the last century a sharp long-term trend away from self-employment
toward working for others.
Suggestions
Quick and easy reforms will not be enough for creating a fast-growing economy. That is our
challenge and that is what we aim to do, it will take hard work, sustained commitment and strong
administrative action. The government is allowed to be a part of the market economy, and its
institutions and organizations fall under the public sector of the market economy.
Although India’s near-term outlook has improved, however, its medium-term prospects remain
constrained by longstanding structural weaknesses. The report has enumerated the following policy
recommendations:

Measures are needed in the energy, mining, and power sectors.

Reforms to streamline and expedite land and environmental clearances, increase labor
market flexibility, and simplify business procedures should continue to improve
*P. Nagaraju, Director’s PS, SOTST, IGNOU, Maidan Garhi, New Delhi – 110068.
India’s business climate, which is crucial for sustaining faster and more inclusive
growth.

Durably meeting the inflation target calls for maintaining a tight monetary policy
stance together with supporting structural reforms.

Fiscal consolidation should continue. A strengthened Fiscal Responsibility and Budget
Management Act is needed to underpin the government’s medium term consolidation
path.

Enhancing financial sector supervision and monitoring is warranted given the rise in
corporate and financial sector strains.
Convergence of Make in India, Digital India, Skill India
In the last decade, everything that had to be manufactured in India and exported, were being
imported from various parts of the world. That’s why our import bill has grown substantially.
Therefore, the new initiatives of the government whether it is Make in India or Digital India or Skill
India, should all converge so that India can grow at 9-10 per cent per annum and create jobs.
The Make in India looks at 25 sectors—it looks at core competencies of India across the sector
and how India can penetrate global markets.
Conclusion
The global economy, a country's inherent potential, the domestic policy environment and its
relative strengths and weaknesses are important elements in growth calculation. The Indian
economy has grown at a rate higher than nine per cent only in about a few years in the past. And
it is well-nigh impossible for any country to manage a sustained nine per cent plus growth rate
consistently for 25 long years. While it may, therefore, be logical to assume that India could
theoretically grow its GDP to over $20 trillion, but it must also be acknowledged that achieving
that goal would take much longer than 25 years.
The bigger the economy gets, the feasible
*P. Nagaraju, Director’s PS, SOTST, IGNOU, Maidan Garhi, New Delhi – 110068.
growth rate targets will have to necessarily come down. That is what happened to all economies
when they exceeded a certain size. Look at what happened to the US and Japan and what is
happening to China now. India will be no exception. Recognition of such growth limitations is
as important as dreaming big or planning for achieving an annual 10 per cent growth rate target.
Indeed, it is important for leaders of the government to understand that growth does not happen
in isolation.
The Prime Minister’s emphasis on “zero-defect, zero-effect” is about how we create
sustainable manufacturing. There are examples across the world —a city called
Kitakyushu recycles everything, Yokohama reduced waste by almost 40 per cent bringing
in a savings of $3.1 billion and in Singapore they recycle almost 50 per cent of water.
These are examples which India must adopt while it moves forward in its process of
urbanization in the years to come. There is lot of energy, lot of vibrancy, lot of
enthusiasm and India must capitalize on this enthusiasm of young people, India m ust use
this energy to leapfrog, India must use this energy to emerge as a front -rank winner in the
world. The whole world is looking at us.
The message is a clear one: markets (financial or capital) are becoming ever more
important for economic development. Their quality is a critical determinant of countries'
economic stability and of their success in a world of financial globalization.
Governments, central banks, regulators, and the private sector have a role to play in
promoting strong, resilient, and innovative markets.
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