Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
POLAND Privatisation Plans & Investment Opportunities Mikołaj Budzanowski - Minister of State Treasury Paweł Tamborski - Deputy Minister of State Treasury January 2013 Poland – a distinctive economy… GDP: 0.7% Inflation: 4.5% Population: 63m • Located in the centre of Europe offering stable economic fundamentals GDP: 3.0% Inflation: 2.5% Population: 82m • Well educated and highly productive society GDP: 4.3% Inflation: 3.9% Population: 38m GDP: 1.7% Inflation: 1.9% Population: 11m GDP: 3.3% Inflation: 4.1% Population: 5m GDP: 1.7% Inflation: 2.3% Population: 63m • Political stability GDP: -1.6% Inflation: 3.6% Population: 11m • Investment incentives GDP: 2.5% Inflation: 5.8% Population: 21m GDP: 3.1% Inflation: 3.6% Population: 6m GDP: 0.7% Inflation: 3.1% Population: 46m CEE - GDP(b) and Population (2011) GDP: 5.5% Inflation: 4.2% Population: 3m GDP: 1.7% Inflation: 3.9% Population: 10m GDP: -6.9% Inflation: 3.1% Population: 11m Real GDP growth rate (c) 600 40 514 38 418 30 400 299 300 20 215 190 200 140 21 8 100 11 0 Poland Note: Austria 11 10 96 10 Population (m) GDP (USD bn) 500 43 5 3 0 Greece Czech Romania Hungary Slovakia Lithuania Rep. GDP (USDbn) 2011 Population (m) Map: 201 1 GDP, Inflation & Population data 2011 (Eurostat, OECD) (a) Refers to population age 25-34 yrs. (b) GDP at current prices in USD c) Ministry of Finance * The Convergence Programme – 2012 update 2 … the fastest growing European economy Cumulative GDP growth rates (a) 2008-2011 15.8 15 8 10 6.5 5 3.5 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.3 1.7 0.2 0 0 -2.2 -2.4 -3 -3.1 -3.4 -3.5 -4.2 -5.7 Lithuania Italy Danemark Hungary United Kingdom Portugal Slovenia Spain Finland Luxembourg EU Romania France Netherlands Germany Belgium Bulgaria Austria Czech Republic Cyprus Sweden Malta Slovakia Poland Source: (a) Ministry of Finance, European Commission, Central Statistical Office (GUS), calculation by the Ministry of Finance Estonia -8.8 -15 -9.2 -11.9 Latvia -1 Greece -0.5 Ireland -0.5 -5 -10 3 Stimulus packages contribute to economic stability and development ► ► EUR 67bn up to 2013 72% of EU funds already allocated* Government stimulus ► ► Source: Note: EU funds inflow Infrastructure spending Wide range of fiscal and pension reforms to reduce public finance deficit to ca. 3% of GDP and public debt to 52% of GDP in 2012 Significant FDI inflows to Foreign Direct Poland: EUR 68.6bn Investments (2006-2011) Shale gas ► Government spending forecast 2009-2012: for roads EUR 23bn for rail EUR 4bn ► The Energy Information Administration estimates Poland’s shale gas resources at 5.23tcm** Ministry of Transport, Construction and Maritime Economy, National Bank of Poland, National Cohesion Strategy, EIU report as of March 2012. Currency conversion based on USD/PLN exchange rate of 3.1891 as of May 4 2012 *As of February 2012 ** Trillion cubic metres 4 Stable monetary policy… Prudent monetary policy • National Bank of Poland interest rates (%) Inflation National Bank of Poland’s medium term inflation target 2.5% ± 1 percentage point (since 2004) Nov 2012: 2.8% y/y (core inflation 1.7% y/y) 2013 e: 2.7% Avg CPI inflation : 3.0% (since 2004) • 25bp interest rate cut to 4.25% (6 Dec 2012); NBP has signalled further cuts. • GDP forecasts: 2.2% - 2013; 2.5% - 2014 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.25 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Inflation Forecast FX Developments 5% 5.21 4% 3% 4.20 2.7% 3.23 2% 1% Source: IMF, National Bank of Poland, Global Insight World Overview, Ministry of Finance 5 … and fiscal policy Key drivers behind fiscal policy • A widening fiscal deficit in 2009 and 2010 related to automatic stabilizers, tax cuts and accumulation of large infrastructure projects in 2009-2012 (mainly EURO 2012) • Expenditure (mainly infrastructure) financed by EU funds made up over 10% of total expenditure • Since 2011 a strategy of systematic deficit reduction has been in place • Government deficit expected to fall to 3.4% of GDP in 2012, 3.1% of GDP in 2013 • Government targets: ‐ public debt/GDP to fall to 51.4% in 2013; 2015 expected slightly above 50% ‐ 2013 target budget deficit PLN 35.6bn – actual deficit levels tend to be below budget Budget deficit execution (PLN bn) Government budget balance (% GDP) 60 50 52 45 45 41 40 40 35 28 30 31 35 27 30 25 27 24 24 200 8 200 9 32 25 16 20 10 0 200 4 200 5 200 6 200 7 Deficits assumed in Budget Acts 201 0 201 1 201 2f* Actual deficits Source: Ministry of Finance ; (a) The Convergence Programme – 2011 update 6 Privatisation via the Stock Exchange 7 Polish Privatisation Programme 2012–2013 Why privatise? To transform and strengthen the domestic economy and capital markets Promote Warsaw as a financial centre in the CEE region To raise budgetary proceeds (est. privatisation proceeds in 2013 of EUR 1.2bn) Privatisation Programme ca. 260 companies earmarked for privatisation (e.g. energy, food, transport, metallurgy, chemicals, services, coal mining, real-estate, defence, agriculture) The Ministry intends to sell off all of its holdings in 85% of companies included in the Privatisation Programme The Ministry will retain majority/controlling stakes in companies of strategic importance (mainly energy, financial and defence companies) Privatisation Methods Capital Markets IPO and follow-on offerings pipeline Civic Shareholding The intention is to to retain decision-making and intellectual capital creation in Poland. *Exchange rate as of May 4, 2012: 1 USD = 3,1891 Trade Sale Negotiations following a public invitation, public tender, public auction Direct sale to secure know-how and consolidated ownership Price is the only selection criterion Additional investor commitments 8 Privatisation via the Stock Exchange Privatisation Plan 2012-2013 Many companies earmarked for privatisation are already listed Timing is dependant on market conditions Key Sectors Chemical Energy Financial institutions Mining WSE Listed Listed Listed Listed Not Listed Listed Listed Listed Listed Not Listed Listed Not Listed Not Listed Not Listed Company Ciech ZA Pulawy *** Grupa Azoty Tarnow*** ENEA Energa PGE* PKO BP* PZU* WSE PHN S.A. JSW** Kompania Węglowa** Katowicki Holding Węglowy** Węglokoks** Note: * Sector Chemicals Chemicals Chemicals Energy Energy Energy Financial Institutions Financial Institutions Financial Institutions Real Estate Mining - Coal Mining - Coal Mining - Coal Mining - Coal State Hldg % 38.72% 00.00% 45.13% 51.78% 84.18% 61.89% 33.39% 35.19% 35.00% 100% 56.18% 100% 100% 100% - Companies of strategic importance included in the Privatisation Plan ** - Companies under the supervision of the Ministry of Economy *** - New shareholding as part of the consolidation process (21 Jan 2013) 9 Core Companies Core Companies The Treasury has identified core companies which are considered to be of strategic importance to the country The Treasury will sell tranches but will retain majority/controlling stakes The priority is to increase corporate governance standards, professionalism, transparency and quality in those companies Professional Management and Supervisory Board selection procedures Compensation and Incentives Schemes for Management Corporate governance Listed Listed Listed Listed Listed Listed Listed Listed Company PGE* Tauron PKO BP* PZU* KGHM PGNiG Grupa Lotos PKN Orlen Sector Energy Energy Financial Institutions Financial Institutions Metals & Mining Oil & Gas Oil & Gas Oil & Gas State Hldg % 61.89% 30.03% 33.39% 35.19% 31.76% 72.41% 53.19% 27.52% * companies included in the Privatisation Plan 2012-13 Apply Best Practice in Corporate Governance To assure professional management and supervision of companies The goal is to create long-term value for all shareholders of publicly listed state-owned companies Code of Best Practice for WSE listed companies 10 Overview of key holdings (1) Energy Sector Energa Enea The company’s operations are based on electricity trading, generation and distribution. Its distribution network covers 20% of the country. It is the 3rd largest energy group in Poland with total production capacity of 3,189 MW. Energy Sector Tauron The second largest domestic producer of electricity in Poland and one of the largest business entities in Poland. TAURON Group’s activities include : coal mining, electricity generation from conventional and renewable sources, electricity distribution, and electricity supply to retail customers. Energy generation, distribution and trading company - provides electricity to 2.5 m households, ca. 300,000 companies (17% market share). Energa’s distribution covers one-quarter of Poland’s area. The company generates ca. 4.5 mn MWh of electricity in 54 manufacturing facilities. Energa’s installed capacity is ca. 1,200 MW (3% market share). PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna (PGE) Poland’s largest power producer and supplier, and one of the biggest heat and energy companies in CEE. Due to a combination of its own fuel resources (lignite), power generation and final distribution networks, PGE guarantees safe and stable power supply to over 5 million households, businesses and institutions. Coal Mining Sector Real Estate Jastrzębska Spółka Węglowa (JSW) The largest producer of high quality coking coal and a significant coke producer in the European Union. The Company is also a producer of steam coal, sold mainly to power plants and CHP plants. Polski Holding Nieruchomości (PHN) One of the biggest commercial real estate companies in CEE. It was established as a result of consolidation of state owned companies linked to the real estate market. Ultimately it will change its business profile into three segments: office, commercial and logistics. 11 Overview of key holdings (2) Financial Sector Powszechny Zakład Ubezpieczeń (PZU) PKO Bank Polski (PKO BP) PKO BP is Poland's largest bank and one of the oldest in continuous operation. In recent years the bank has consolidated its market leadership. It operates the largest banking network in Poland with over 1,200 branches and nearly 2,000 smaller outlets. PZU is the largest insurance group in the CEE in terms of written premiums (PFSA). It has a broad range of insurance and financial products. PZU is the market leader in Polish property and casualty insurance in terms of gross written premiums (33% market share), and life insurance (26% market share). One of the largest producers of copper and silver in the world. KGHM possesses its own copper ore deposit and its own integrated production structure, comprising three mines, two copper smelters, a wire rod plant and auxiliary units supporting the core business. KGHM acquired Canadian Quadra FNX Mining in March 2012 through which it now has operations in Arizona, Canada and Chile. WSE is the largest securities exchange in CEE. It is one of the most dynamically growing capital markets in Europe. The WSE operates a regulated market of equity and derivative instruments, and the alternative stock market NewConnect for growing companies. Oil & Gas Sector Copper & Silver Sector KGHM Polska Miedź Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE) Polskie Górnictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo (PGNiG) PGNiG is the largest Polish oil and gas exploration and production company. It is a leader in natural gas segments in Poland and the largest importer of natural gas. PKN Orlen (Orlen) Grupa Lotos PKN ORLEN is one of Central Europe’s largest refiners of crude oil. The company specialises in processing crude oil into worldclass unleaded petrol, diesel, heating oil, and aviation fuel, as well as plastics and other petroleum related products. Lotos Group is a vertically integrated oil company, whose business encompasses exploration for and production of crude oil, processing of crude oil, as well as wholesale and retail sale of high-quality petroleum products. 12 Overview of key holdings (3) Chemical Sector In July 2012 ZA Tarnow announced its acquisition of ZA Pulawy. Both companies stand to benefit from significant synergies. Following the transaction, the Ministry of Treasury may dispose part of its stake in the combined entity. Significant increase in value for shareholders is expected due to the possible synergies and size of the combined entity. Zakłady Azotowe Puławy (ZAP) Grupa Azoty Tarnow Ciech One of Poland’s largest chemical companies, ZAP has been the leader in the Polish fertiliser sector for over forty years. The company concentrates on the production of nitrogen fertilisers for agricultural needs, and production of chemicals which make up 40% of overall production. Also a leading producer of caprolactam and nitrogen fertilisers. ZAP is the world’s 3rd largest melamine producer with ca. 10 % global market share, and 20% European market share. Poland’s largest chemical company. Possesses unique competences in: • construction plastics (polyamides, polyoxymethylene, compounds) • caprolactam • mineral fertilisers Ciech Group is one of the Europe’s chemical market leaders. It comprises over 40 companies and counts itself among the 50 largest business organisations in Poland. The main products of the Group are: soda ash (the second largest producer in Europe), epoxy & polyester resins, plant protection chemicals and fertilisers, as well as other chemical products which are used in the glass, furniture, chemical, food, agriculture and construction industries. It also produces a large number of other chemical products, renowned on both domestic and international markets. The company is the country’s sole producer of polyacetal. 13 Appendix – Poland’s Capital Markets 14 Priority of the Polish government Domestic Issuers International Issuers 43 on the main market / 8 on the alternative market. Listings from 20 countries including: Hungary, Slovenia, Ukraine, Israel, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Estonia, France, UK. 396 423 POLAND’S CAPITAL MARKET MAIN MARKET NEWCONNECT Other nonState 27,11% JSW 2.02% International trading flows with approx. 50% of all trading volume generated by international investors • Domestic institutional investors (pension funds (OFE), mutual funds, asset managers) DERIVATIVES – options & futures PZU 13.04% PGNIG 5.33% PGE 7.82% • CATALYST PKOBP 13.74% LOTOS 1.41% BOGDANKA 2.72% TAURONPE 2.96% KGHM 14.83% PKNORLEN 9.03% WIG 20 – privatised core companies Source: Warsaw Stock Exchange and NewConnect websites, as of January 18, 2013 • Active retail investor segment (18% 0f trading flows on WSE main market) Global and Domestic Investors 15 Warsaw Stock Exchange Stable and Vibrant Platform to Raise Capital and partnership with NYSE Number of New Companies Listed through an IPO in 2011(b) Market Capitalisation (EURbn) – November 2012 591 Equity market cap (EUR bn) 27 217 126 MICEX/RTS Istanbul SE 6 77 Warsaw SE 2 Wiener Börse MICEX/RTS Istanbul SE Warsaw SE Wiener Börse Share Turnover Velocity (%)(c) Domestic Market Capitalisation – CEE countries (a) 126 Equity market cap (EUR bn) 1 157.2 77 27 Poland Austria 57.0 30 16 5 44.6 4 Czech Greece Hungary Bulgaria Slovakia Republic MICEX/RTS Source: World Federation of Exchanges Members and Federation of European Securities Exchanges, Company data Note: a) Oct 2012; exchange rate as of Oct 31,2012 1 USD = 0.7716 EUR b)Main Market c) March 2012 EOB value of share trading Istanbul SE Warsaw SE 29.8 Wiener Börse 16 Significant potential for future market development Market Capitalisation / GDP - December 2011 Trading Velocity - 2011 (in %) (in %) 152 145 90 137% WSE - 5th European index futures exchange in 2011 Debt Markets – Bond Issuance 2010-2012 Volume Turnover (EUR Bn) 1 855 4% 1% 1% Bratislava 8% 1 620 1 525 1 614 18,533.10 Ireland Cyprus Slovakia Bucharest Romania Vienna Greece Source: FESE Czech Rep. Cyprus WSE Slovenia Athens 6 NOMX 8 NYSE Euronext 11 Budapest 11 OsloBors 12 D.Boerse 13 Malta 57% 51% 46% 17% 16% 14% 16 Hungary 18 Bulgaria Italy 20 Czech Rep. 21 Austria 27 Poland Germany 27 Ireland 34 Malta Norway Source: FESE NYSE Euronext UK NOMX 38 Bulgaria 48 Ljubljana 103% 93% 91% 81% 75% 791 837 478 405 4,968.26 233 549.45 452.70 84.65 14.77 6.58 3.84 1.39 0.02 EUREX Euronext. Spanish NASDAQ Warsaw Austrian ATHEX Oslo Børs Budapest Bucharest Prague Liffe Exchanges OMX Stock Derivates Derivatives Stock Stock Stock Nordic Exchange Market Market Exchange Exchange Exchange Source: FESE 79 95 46 12 15 6 0.01 Germany France United Kingdom Austria Poland 2010 15 14 3 2 2 3 Czech Republic Slovak Romania Republic 2011 2 2 2 0 1 2 49 4 0 4 9 0 Latvia Greece Hungary 2012 YTD Source: Dealogic Source: FESE (LSEG data from WFE) as of 31st December 2011, Dealogic as of 16th April 2012 Note: Domestic market capitalization includes regulated and exchange-regulated markets, and foreign-incorporated companies with sole listing on exchange in question. 17 Domestic Pension Funds - a key liquidity driver of WSE Continued Inflow of Funds Despite Recent Changes to the Pension System Pension Funds (a)* - AUM Mutual Funds (a)* - AUM EUR bn 56 12,4 29 11,7 13,8 13,1 34 35 45 14.4 mn 57 EUR bn mn 34 15.5 14.9 3.5 25 21 2.1 15 3.3 23 29 18 2.5 2.5 29 2.4 1.4 N0. of Funds: 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 Assets Under Management N0. of Funds: 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 215 281 381 499 578 658 744 Assets Under Management Clients Clients Retail Investors Contribute to WSE Market Liquidity (b) Number of brokerage accounts 15 15 14 in Poland 14 15 (‘000) 3% 10 % 997 1,029 1,133 2007 2008 7% 10% 853 909 2005 2006 2009 14 14 30 % 1% 1,477 1,498 1,529 2010 2011 October 2012 WSE Equity - Turnover Breakdown (%)(c) Annual growth of the total number of brokerage accounts (a) KNF-Financial (b) Supervision Authority - statistics, Chamber of Fund and Asset Management * PLN/EUR: PLN 3.9517 average exchange rate for 2005-2011 WSE internet portal, KNF-Polish Financial Supervision Authority - statistics, KDPW, Chamber of Fund and Asset Management ( c) Investors in stock exchange turnover 2011 - presentation 18 Polish Retail Investors Unique Support for Liquidity across WSE Segments Akcjonariat Obywatelski (Civic Shareholding Programme) - a long term programme initiated by the Ministry of Treasury during the IPO of PZU and further developed during the privatisation of Tauron, WSE and JSW The aim is to increase the participation of Polish individuals in the domestic capital markets and Privatisation Programme, and also to encourage Poles to actively manage their savings Successful participation in IPOs Company PGE PZU Tauron WSE JSW IPO Date Oct- 2009 May-2010 Jun-2010 Oct-2010 Jul-2011 85,ooo 250,000 230,000 323,000 168,000 No of subscribers Today individual investors generate ca. 18% of trading flows of WSE Main market 77% of trading flows on NewConnect 46% of trading flows in future contracts 64% of trading flows in options 19 NOT FOR RELEASE, PUBLICATION OR DISTRIBUTION, DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY, IN OR INTO THE UNITED STATES, AUSTRALIA OR JAPAN. This material (and the information contained herein) does not contain or constitute an offer of securities for sale, or solicitation of an offer to purchase securities in Canada or any other jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be unlawful prior to registration, exemption from registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such jurisdiction. No public offering of the securities will be made in the Canada and no actions under Canadian securities regulations will be undertaken to make the securities available for the Canadian investors. This material should not be construed as the giving of advice or the making of a recommendation, and the information contained in this material should not be relied on as the basis for any decision or action. In particular, actual results and developments may be materially different from any opinion, expectation or other forward-looking statement contained in this material. Neither this material nor any copy hereof may be taken or transmitted, or distributed, directly or indirectly, in or into the United States, its territories or possessions. The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. Any failure to comply with these restrictions may constitute a violation of the laws of Canada or the laws of any such other jurisdiction. Contact us Capital Markets Department Tel. (+48 22) 695 97 04 Fax (+48 22) 695 87 01 E-mail: [email protected] Monika Bojarska - Investor Relations Tel. (+48 22) 695 90 90 Fax (+48 22) 695 87 01 E-mail: [email protected] www.msp.gov.pl