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Three Possibilities I. II. III. the end of human life, perhaps of all life on this earth; a reversion to barbarism after a disastrous fall in the human population of the earth; the establishment of a single world-government possessing a complete control over all the principal weapons of war. 1. The Extinction of the Human Race The first possibility, according to Russell, may not materialize as a result of the next world war, unless that war is postponed for a longer time than now seems probable if the next world war is indecisive, and if organized States survive, it, a period of feverish technical development may begin Although the last survivor may then proclaim himself the emperor of the universe, his reign will be brief and his subjects will all be rotten dead bodies Too Pessimistic a View Treaty on the Non Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Climate change is an inevitable challenge This essay was written back in twentieth century and nothing had happened since in accordance to nuclear war 2. A Reversion to Barbarism a reversion to barbarism as a result of a scientific world war in which a large majority of human beings will be killed, and only a small number of people will be left on the earth All civilizations will be destroyed due to nuclear warfare Few nations will survive and they too will revert back to the old civilization of humans it will cause famine resulting from radio-active spray and pestilence resulting from bacteriological warfare the small number of survivors would revert to a primitive village economy. A Strong Basis for the Second Possibility There is nothing absurd or preposterous about the second-possibility also A scientific world war is sure to reduce the human population to a small number A scientific world war would annihilate all the progress that mankind has achieved through centuries of hard work and effort In that case, a reversion to barbarism would be a certainty. 3. The Third Possibility establishment of a single government for the whole world This possibility may be realized in different ways a) by the victory of the United States in the next world war b) by the victory of the Soviet Russia c) by means of an agreement among the nations of the world If world-government is established through an agreement among the nations another world war may be avoided A World-Government Not Feasible The third possibility visualized by Russell seems far-fetched unrealistic the 20th century nationalization boom made it impossible the establishment of world government by the victory of two superpowers after the world war seemed impossible as their will be just dead nations. A World-Government through Agreement Unlikely arguments that are used against the project of a single government for the whole world the idea of a world-government is Utopian and impossible the author accepts it and that the establishment of a world-government by means of a general agreement is impossible world-government, if it has to be established, will have to be imposed by force The Establishment of a World-Government through War It may be asserted that wars have always been fought and that the human race has survived in spite of them wars provide an opportunity for heroism self-sacrifice that people will feel frustrated if there are no wars at all To this argument Russell replies a) the much greater destruction caused by modern wars on account of technological developments b) if the next world war does not exterminate the human race, it is sure to bring about a kind of reversion to barbarism which has already been mentioned above. The Beneficial Results of a World-Government Whether the United States wins or Soviet Russia wins successful rebellion will be impossible winning side will have a monopoly of the armed forces people of the victorious side will achieve a very high degree of material comfort will be freed from the tyranny of fear gradually more good-natured kind-hearted less inclined to persecute A Russian Victory in War, an Appalling Disaster Russell siding with the United States is that there is more respect in that country he has in mind is freedom freedom of thought freedom of inquiry freedom of discussion humane feeling If Soviet Russia wins the victory, all these freedoms would be crushed Under such a world-government, science, philosophy, art and literature will be fully controlled by official authorities and will therefore become narrow The Victory of an Alliance of Nations A victory for the United States would not have such awful consequences. an alliance in which the other members would insist upon retaining much of their traditional independence there would still be British culture, French culture, Italian culture and so on Russell’s Unrealistic Approach to the Problem This is the only essay in which Russell, the great apostle of reason, himself becomes unreasonable a man of great intellect showing a sign of fatigue or negligence in his reasoning it is strange that a confirmed pacifist should advocate the establishment of a worldgovernment through war how does Russell assume that the alliance led by the United States is bound to win the war against Russia and its allies when this essay was written, China had not become so powerful as it is today Nobody can predict what role China might choose for itself If, contrary to Russell’s assessment, Russia were to win the war, it would in Russell’s own words be an “appalling disaster” No, war is not the right means to achieve the ideal of a world-government this ideal cannot be achieved We must be more realistic think of avoiding wars in the future by deciding to live in harmony in accordance with the principle of “live and let live” o-existence is the only formula for the world today the atom bomb, instead of being allowed to destroy the world be treated only as a deterrent to war