Download Kazakhstan. Macroeconomic situation March 2010

Kazakhstan
Macroeconomic Situation
March 2010
Sergey Kasyanenko, Edilberto L. Segura
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Kazakh GDP grew by 1.2% in 2009.
In the first two months of 2010, industry gained 10.4% yoy driven output growth in mining and
a manufacturing recovery.
In January-February 2010, tax revenues jumped by about 30% yoy.
In February, the consumer price index was 7.4% higher than a year ago.
In January, export bounced back by 66% yoy on stronger energy prices and growing trade
volumes.
Executive Summary
In 2009, the economic growth was almost exclusively driven by the oil industry. Indeed, GDP grew by only
1.2% yoy, as weak domestic demand dampened activities in the services sector. And construction continued
to decline as tight credit depressed residential housing investments. Lastly, a slump in global economy exerted
a toll on metallurgy and machine building.
On the upside, in the last quarter of 2009, GDP stared to grow again helped by stronger global demand. The
economic picture continues to improve in 2010, with industrial production increasing by 10.4% yoy in
January-February. Output in trade, transportation, agriculture and industry remained on the uptrend as well. A
broad-based revival in manufacturing may be gaining momentum as a wide group of industries is returning to
precrisis output levels. And the housing market may be turning the corner. Indeed, home values have been
increasing since November 2009, which pared the 12-month price decline to less than 5% from its worst of
over 20% at the beginning of 2009.
That said, a gap between the trend and actual GDP, albeit narrowing, may exceed 10%. This means that a
return to normal economic activity in construction and banking sectors is necessary to put the nascent
recovery on a more sustainable footing. At present, most banks are still reluctant to relax their lending
requirements on funding pressures, high credit risks and a weak upside potential for property prices. However,
an orderly resolution of problems in the banking sector in 2010 will support a healthy rebound thereafter. Two
large Kazakh banks, which last year defaulted foreign debts, are already finalizing their restructuring. The
share of non-performing loans appears to have stabilized. And large repayments of foreign loans substantially
lowered debt service burden in the banking sector. All these should provide banks with more room for growth
in the medium-term.
Improving outlook of the global economy and stronger local economic condition are expected to generate
extra $700 million in budget revenues this year. This more upbeat fiscal outlook allows the government to
bring forward a 25% increase of wages and stipends in the public sector. In addition, more funds will be spent
on various economic modernization programs. That said, the 2010 republican budget deficit was revised to
4.6% of GDP which may result in a 12% non-oil deficit. However, the government intends to cap deficit
financing by the National Oil Fund and the non-oil budget deficit is to be lowered to 3% of GDP by 2020.
A resumption of foreign demand for energy and metals is supporting export recovery in Kazakhstan. The
current account balance, which posted a deficit of $3.4 billion in 2009, is likely to return to a surplus as
demand for imports remains weak. Meanwhile, higher trade surpluses and a steady growth of foreign
investments in the oil sector will support forex liquidity of Kazakhstan. By the end of February, the central
bank’s reserves and assets of the National Oil Fund stood at about $53 billion or nearly $11 billion more than
a year ago.
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
GDPgrowth, % change yoy
GDPper capita, $
Industrial production, % change yoy
State budget deficit, % of GDP
Governmet external debt (including NBK), % of GDP
Unemployment, end of period
Inflation, end of period
Retail sales, % change yoy
Gross forex reserves of the NBK, $ billion, end of period
Assets of the National Oil Fund, $ billion, end of period
Current Account Balance, $ billion
External debt, $ billion
Exchange rate, tenge/$, annual average
2005
9.7%
3 754
4.8%
0.6%
1.8%
8.1%
7.6%
13.5%
7.1
8.1
- 1.1
43.4
132.9
2006
10.7%
5 262
7.2%
0.8%
2.9%
7.8%
8.4%
15.0%
19.1
14.1
- 2.0
74.0
126.1
2007
8.9%
6 757
5.0%
- 1.7%
1.8%
7.3%
18.8%
10.7%
17.6
21.0
- 8.2
96.9
122.6
2008
3.3%
8 398
2.1%
- 2.1%
1.6%
6.6%
9.5%
3.1%
19.9
27.5
6.3
108.1
120.3
2009
1.2%
6 710
1.5%
- 3.1%
2.4%
6.3%
6.2%
- 2.0%
23.2
24.4
- 3.4
111.7
147.5
2010*
2.0%
7 600
6- 8%
2.0
120.0
145.0
*Projections
Source: ASRK, NBK, Ministry of Finance, IMF, Economist Intelligence Unit
Economic Growth
15
In 2009, Kazakh GDP grew by 1.2% yoy as weak domestic
demand and difficulties in the financial sector exerted a toll on
the services industry (see chart 1). Indeed, last year the
economic growth was almost exclusively driven by the oil
industry. In 2009, oil and gas condensate extraction increased
by nearly 8% yoy – the fastest growth since 2004. Meanwhile,
output in construction and manufacturing continued to decline
as tight credit and a slump in global economy depressed
demand for housing and metallurgy. Lastly, the services sector,
which contributed over 5 percentage points on average to the
overall economic growth in 2000-2007, shrank for the first
time since 1999. In particular, trade and transportation
industries, which together with the financial sector were the
main drivers of growth in services, remained weak, decreasing
for the first time in over 9 years. And financial activities
contracted for the second consecutive year as banks have been
experiencing significant funding pressures.
Chart 1. Contributions to GDP growth, percentage points
13.5
10.7
12
9.8
9.8
9.3
9.6
9.7
8.9
9
6
3.3
3
1.2
0
-3
2000
Goods
2001
2002
Services
2003
2004
FISIM*
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Net taxes on products and imports
GDP
Contributions of goods producing industries to GDP grow th
8
6
4
2
On the up side, a resumption of global demand for energy and
metals helped boost economic growth in Kazakhstan. In the
last quarter of 2009, GDP grew by about 10% yoy, following
three consecutive quarters of economic contraction. This may
imply that the economy has already emerged from the
recession. However, a gap between the trend and actual GDP,
albeit narrowing, may be as large as 10% (see chart 2). This
means that a stronger foreign demand may not be sufficient to
push Kazakhstan back to its long-term growth. A return to
normal economic activity in construction and banking sectors
is necessary to put the nascent recovery on a more sustainable
footing.
Chart 2. Trend and actual GDP, logarithmic right scale
0
-2
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Mining
Construction
Goods producing industries
2006
2007
2008
2009
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Contributions of services producing industries to GDP grow th
8
6
4
2
0
-2
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Fincial activities
Trade
Services producing industries
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Transport and comunications
Real estate operations
* Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured
Source: ASRK, The Bleyzer Foundation
12.6
4%
12.4
0%
12.1
-4%
11.9
-8%
11.6
-12%
11.4
-16%
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Output gap, % o f trend, right scale
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Trend GDP
Real GDP , quaterly, seaso nally adjusted
Source ASRK
The economic picture continues to improve in 2010. According to the ASRK estimates, Kazakh GDP grew by
6.4% yoy in January-February on stronger exports. And there are signs that domestic demand may be
recovering. In fact, in the first two months of this year, retail and wholesale sales grew by 11% yoy and 12%
yoy, respectively. Output in trade, transportation, agriculture and industry remained on the uptrend as well
(see chart 3).
Chart 3. Output in the real sector of Kazakhstan, % change yoy
20
75
15
62.5
10
50
5
37.5
0
25
-5
12.5
-10
0
-15
-12.5
-20
-25
2009
2010
Trade
Industry
Freight transportation
Passenger transportation
Agriculture, right scale
Source: ASRK
In particular, during the first two months of 2010, industrial production increased by 10.4% yoy driven by
6.5% yoy and 18.5% yoy growth in mining and manufacturing, respectively. A broad-based revival in
manufacturing appears to be gaining momentum as a wide group of industries (from food processing and
production of construction materials to chemical industry, machine building and metallurgy) is returning to
precrisis output levels (see chart 4). That said, output in export-oriented metallurgy (which accounts for about
40% of all manufacturing) is still nearly 10% below its 2007 level. This means that growth in manufacturing
is linked to the recovery of global trade as well (see chart 5).
Chart 4. Industrial production, % change to January-February 2007
35
28
21
14
7
0
-7
-14
-21
Jan-Feb 2009
Construction
materials
Machine
building
Metallurgy
Manufacturing
Food
processing
Fuel
processing
Industry
Mining
-35
Chemical
industry
-28
Jan-Feb 2010
Source: ASRK, The Bleyzer Foundation
Chart 5. Kazakh manufacturing and global trade
170
150
130
110
90
2007
2008
2009
Merchandise w orld trade, 2000=100
Output in manufacturing, seasonally adjusted, 2006=100
Source: ASRK, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, The Bleyzer Foundation
Lastly, the housing market (where prices are down by 14% and 27% from the peak in Fall 2007 for new and
pre-owned apartments, respectively) may be turning the corner. Indeed, home values have been posting
monthly gains since November 2009, which pared the 12-month price decline to less than 5% from its worst
of over 20% at the beginning of 2009 (see chart 6). At the same time, a sharp reduction in residential
construction implies that recent price trends are likely to reflect supply-side adjustments. After all, a lack of
bank lending has sapped the strength of the residential housing investments. This reduced the supply of new
housing (see chart 7), which eased downward pressures on prices.
Chart 6. Residential home prices, % change yoy
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
2008
2009
New apartments
2010
Pre-ow ned apartments
Source: ASRK
Chart 7. Residential housing investments
120%
10.0%
105%
8.8%
90%
7.5%
75%
6.3%
60%
5.0%
45%
3.8%
30%
2.5%
15%
1.3%
0%
0.0%
-15%
-1.3%
-30%
-2.5%
-45%
-3.8%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Residential housing investment, % annual real change, left scale
Completion of residential buildings, % annual change, left scale
Residential mortgages, % to GDP, right scale
Loans issued to construction industry, % to GDP, right scale
Source: ASRK, NBK
On the demand side, credit conditions remain tight as banks avoid issuing new loans to highly leveraged
construction and trade sectors. According to the latest survey of banks, conducted by the NBK in the last
quarter of 2009, most banks are unlikely to relax their lending requirements in the near-term on high credit
risks and a weak upside potential for property prices. In particular, real estate prices are expected to recover
slowly as more distressed assets enter the market. Meanwhile, retail and corporate deposits are becoming the
major funding sources of banks. And more strict regulations on lending in foreign currencies reduce
incentives for banks to attract external funds. In addition, according to the head of the Kazakh National
Welfare Fund Samruk-Kazyna, the government is currently considering increasing oversight and introducing
caps on banks’ foreign borrowings. This combination of elevated lending standards and a tight funding means
that banks are unlikely to return to their precrisis levels of credit activity in 2010.
That said, an orderly resolution of problems in the banking sector should create a solid background for a
healthy rebound thereafter. Indeed, two large Kazakh banks, which last year defaulted on nearly $20 billion of
foreign liabilities, are finalizing their restructuring. First, Samruk-Kazyna, which became the sole owner of
the Alliance bank in January, is to increase bank’s capital by nearly $880 million (through new ordinary
shares and a conversion of creditor rights into preferred shares).1 The restructuring will allow the bank to
write-off 78% of its liabilities to creditors which will leave it with about $1 billion in total debts.
Second, in the middle of March, the BTA bank, which is restructuring over $12 billion in foreign debts,
offered creditors an 18.5% stake in the bank instead of 15% initially offered in December 2009. If the new
deal is approved (creditors are expected to cast votes on debt restructuring options by mid June) the bank’s
debt will be reduced by about $6 billion, while the Samruk-Kazyna’s stake will increase to 81.5% from 75%.2
A successful completion of this restructuring may facilitate the takeover of the BTA bank by the Sberbank –
the largest Russian state-owned lender. Finally, the share of non-performing loans in the Kazakh banking
system appears to have stabilized. And large repayments of foreign loans in 2009 helped banks to cut the costs
of servicing external liabilities in the coming years.3 This should provide banks with more room for growth in
the medium-term.
Fiscal Policy
The oil industry continues to play an important role in Kazakh fiscal policy as well. Indeed, improving
outlook of the global economy prompted the government to revise its projections of the crude oil prices to $65
per barrel from its December’s estimate of $50 per barrel, which means that the National Oil Fund revenues
will grow faster than initially predicted. As a result, the government will receive $845 million more from the
National Oil Fund while improving economic condition are expected to generate extra $700 million in budget
revenues. This more upbeat fiscal outlook allows the government to bring forward a 25% increase of wages
and stipends in the public sector to April 1st from July 1st.4 In addition, about $1 billion more will be spent on
various economic modernization programs.
That said, in March, the upper chamber of the Kazakh Parliament approved amendments to the 2010
republican budget increasing its deficit to 4.6% of GDP from the initial 4.1% (see chart 8). Transfers from the
National Oil Fund will continue to generate over one third of all budget revenues 5, implying that the non-oil
budget deficit may approach 12% in 2010. This means that oil price fluctuations will remain a concern for
Kazakh public finances in the medium-term. On the upside, the share of tax revenues in GDP is expected to
grow as the economy bounces back. In addition, starting 2010 transfers from the National Oil Fund cannot
exceed $8 billion.6 Meanwhile, a draft concept on the use of the assets on the National Oil Fund was approved
by the government. In particular, it restricts the provision of soft loans to quasi-state companies and limits the
levels and servicing costs of the public debt. The government believes that all this will help to increase the
assets of the Fund to $90 billion by 2020, while the non-oil budget deficit will be brought to 3% of GDP.
Chart 8. Republican budget revenues and deficit, % of GDP
Creditors are to take part in the future recapitalization of the bank by converting their rights into the bank’s shares. This will
reduce the Samruk-Kazyna's stake to 67%.
2
The state has already invested about $2 billion in the BTA Bank.
3
According to the NBK’s surveys of 11 banks which are the largest borrowers at the external markets, the foreign debt service
burden is expected to half in 2010.
4
This measure is estimated to cost additional $365 million.
5
In 2009, the republican budget received an equivalent of 7% of GDP in transfers from the National Oil Fund, which helped to end
the fiscal year with only a 3.2% deficit.
6
The previous rule limited annual transfers from the National Oil Fund at one third of its assets.
1
0%
22.0%
-1%
17.6%
-2%
13.2%
-3%
8.8%
-4%
4.4%
-5%
0.0%
2008
2009
2010
2010-2012 budget law
Transfers from the National Oil Fund, , right scale
Deficit, left scale
2011
2012
Tax revenues, right scale
Other, , right scale
Source: Ministry of Finance of RK
There are signs that an economic upturn is helping the budget. Indeed, during the first two months of 2010,
non-oil tax revenues jumped by about 30% versus a year ago as the collection of main taxes improved. This
was driven by higher personal and corporate incomes, more VAT paid by local producer and growing
collection of custom duties. Meanwhile, government spending, excluding operations with financial assets and
public debt service, increased 29% yoy driven by pensions and wage increases in the public sector. Budget
capital spending is recovering as well on higher public investments in roads, education and healthcare. As a
result, the state budget deficit stood at about 0.3% of projected full-year GDP.
Monetary Policy
In February, consumer prices grew by 0.9% against the previous month on the back of higher prices of foods
and medicine and raised railroad tariffs. As a result, the consumer price index was 7.4% higher than a year
ago (see chart 9). At the same time, various measures of the core inflation index, which excludes items whose
prices are particularly volatile, like food and energy, continue to point to moderate inflationary risks (see chart
10). And the impact of the exchange rate fluctuations on the core CPI is stronger than on the headline
consumer price index. This means that a recent tendency for the exchange rate to appreciate should help
partially offset growing prices of imported processed foods and consumer products.
Chart 9. CPI and its components, % annual change
30
24
18
12
6
0
6
6
2008
CPI
2009
Foods
Non-foods
2010
Services
Source: ASRK
Chart 10. Core and headline CPI, % monthly change
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
2009
Core inflation*
2010
Consumer prices index
*excluding foods, utilities, railroad and telecommunication tariffs and fossil fuels
Source: ASRK
Tight credit helps cool inflationary pressures as well. In February, KZT denominated credit was down by
0.4% yoy, while forex denominated credit dropped by about 10% yoy (see chart 11). In particular, credit to
household has been shrinking for the past 27 months and its share in total credit narrowed to 28% from 35%
at the end of 2007. Elevated credit risks make banks reluctant to issue new credit as well. Indeed, the share of
overdue consumer loans increased from less than 5% in January 2009 to over 12% in January 2010.
Meanwhile, the share of overdue loans in construction and trade (over 40% of all bank lending) grew to 20%
and 14%, respectively (see chart 12).
Chart 11. Tenge and forex-denominated credit, % annual change
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
2008
Share of crdit to housholds in total credit
2009
KZT
Source: NBK
Chart 12. Overdue loans, % of total
2010
Forex
Construction
20%
15%
Mining
Trade
10%
5%
0%
Other (services,
individual activities)
Total
Consumer credit
Manufacturing
Jan-09
Jan-10
Source: NBK
On the positive side, the share of nonperforming loans appears to stabilizing, following a sharp deterioration
of the quality of bank loans after the default of three Kazakh lenders, Alliance Bank, BTA Bank and
Temirbank, in 2009 (see chart 13). In addition, over the past 12 months, banks’ liabilities to residents fell by
25% (or about $9 billion). As a result, at present, the maturity of over 75% of the banks’ external liabilities
(excluding liabilities of the Alliance Bank, BTA Bank and Temirbank) exceeds 12 months versus only 67% a
year ago. Meanwhile the share of corporate and retail deposits in total liabilities increased from 45% to 49%.
All these means that a lower debt service burden and increased reliance on less volatile funding sources (such
as retail and corporate deposits) should support financial stability in the banking sector in 2010.
Chart 13. Nonperforming loans, % of total
40%
33%
26%
19%
12%
5%
Jan Feb M ar A pr M ay Jun
Jul A ug Sep Oct No v Dec Jan Feb
2009
2010
No nperfro ming lao ns
No nperfro ming lao ns, excluding B TA B ank, A lliance B ank and TemirB ank
Source: FSA
International Trade and Capital
A resumption of foreign demand for energy and metals is supporting export recovery in Kazakhstan. In
January 2010, export bounced back by 66% yoy on stronger energy prices and growing trade volumes.
Meanwhile imports declined by 18%, which pushed a monthly trade surplus to $2.8 billion - the highest level
since November 2008.
Chart 14. Foreign trade, monthly flows, January 2008=100
1.8
4.2
1.6
3.6
1.4
3
1.2
2.4
1
1.8
0.8
1.2
0.6
0.6
0.4
0
2008
Exports
2009
Imports
2010
Balance, USD billion, right scale
Source: ASRK
In addition, in the last quarter of 2009, stronger exports helped move the current account back in to the surplus
after four consecutive quarterly deficits (see chart 15). Meanwhile, during 2009 the total external debt grew
to $11.7 billion (or by $4 billion) and its ratio to GDP stood at 104% compared to 81.3% at the end of 2008. 7
The total external debt of the banking sector declined by $9.15 billion, while since the beginning of the global
financial crisis in December 2007, Kazakh banks repaid over $15 billion to foreign creditors. As a result, the
ratio of the foreign debt of banks to GDP dropped to 28% of GDP versus 44% at the end of 2007. Lastly, the
external debt of other sectors increased by $11.5 billion and mostly on the back of growing intercompany
loans in the mining industry.
Chart 15. Quarterly current account flows, $ billion
12
9
6
3
0
-3
-6
-9
q1
q2
q3
q4
q1
2008
q2
q3
q4
2009
Trade balance
Services balance
Incomes balance
Current transfers balance
Current Account
Source: NBK
7
In 2009, the ratio of the total external debt to GDP increased mostly due to the 19% drop of the dollar value of Kazakh GDP to
$107 billion from $132 billion in 2008.
Improving trade surplus and stable inflows of foreign investments into the oil sector helped rebuild forex
reserves of the central bank. During the second half of 2009, these reserves grew by about 25% or $4.6
billion. And in the first two months of 2010, the forex reserves increased by another $4.3 billion. 8 As a result,
at the end of February, forex reserves and assets of the National Oil Fund stood at about $53 billion or nearly
$11 billion more than a year ago.
8
According to the NBK, during the last 4 months it bought about $7.5 billion at the forex market, including $1.7 billion in February
2010.