Download Presentación-del-Secretario-de-Estado-en-Londres-08-feb

Document related concepts

Pensions crisis wikipedia , lookup

Gross domestic product wikipedia , lookup

Stability and Growth Pact wikipedia , lookup

Transcript
Kingdom of Spain
Economic Policy and 2010 Funding
Strategy
Secretary of State for the Economy
February 2010
• Highlights
• The long growth cycle and the crisis
• Fiscal consolidation and structural reform
• Funding Strategy of the Kingdom of Spain
~2009~
1
Highlights
• Long growth cycle previous to the international crisis
• Important challenges ahead: Unemployment and deficit,
consequence of the crisis but also symptoms of underlying
structural shortcomings
• The Spanish Government is determined to act:
• Fiscal consolidation: A cut of 5.7% of GDP in structural
primary deficit in 2010-2013
• Structural reforms to boost potential GDP: Sustainable
Economy, Bank Reorganisation, Pensions, Labour Market
• Strengths: Sound financial system, low Debt/GDP,
institutional ability for reform
2
• Highlights
• The long growth cycle and the crisis
• Fiscal consolidation and structural reform
• Funding Strategy of the Kingdom of Spain
3
1994-2008: Convergence and Debt reduction
• GDP per capita has leapt forward, exceeding the average of EU-25
• Fiscal rigour during the good times allowed debt to GDP to be more
than halved
GDP
Debt to GDP
(Year on year real growth rates)
(% nominal GDP)
80%
6%
Euro-area
Spain
4%
2%
70%
60%
Euro-area
0%
50%
-2%
Spain
40%
-4%
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
Source: Eurostat.
2000
30%
-6%
Source: Eurostat.
4
Investment binge: housing and beyond
• What has fuelled domestic demand is a soaring investment rate,
with the national savings rate staying close to Eurozone average
• The housing boom is part of the story, but not the whole story
Savings rate
Investment rate vs. Savings rate
(% nominal GDP)
(% nominal GDP)
34
30
30
25
2000
Source: Eurostat.
* 2009Q3
2005
2009*
Savings rate
Source: Eurostat.
2009
2008
Italy
2007
France
2006
Spain
2005
Germany
2004
Belgium
2003
18
2002
10
2001
22
1999
15
2000
26
20
Investment rate
5
Investment binge: housing and beyond
• The residential real estate sector grabbed a non-sustainable share
of GDP and employment…
Construction Sector: Gross Value Added and Employment
(% Total Value Added and of Total Employment)
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
Full-time equivalent employees
Source: National Statistics Institute, Spain.
Gross Value Added
6
Investment binge: housing and beyond
• …but Spain has also invested heavily in equipment, infrastructure
and Research and Development
Investment
equipment
Investment
in equipmentin
(average
growth, 1995-2008, %)
(average growth, 1995-2008 in percent)
Public Investment
EU-27
GERMANY
FRANCE
ITALY
UK
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Spain
0.0
France
0
Italy
1.0
UK
2
Denmark
2.0
EU-15
4
Austria
3.0
Finland
6
Netherlands
4.0
Germany
8
2000
(% of GDP)
5.0
10
SPAIN
Source: Eurostat.
Source: Eurostat
7
Intensive in employment
• Residential construction attracted low skilled labour, dragging
productivity lower
• Labour supply matched this demand with the help of immigration
flows
Active population
Labor productivity
(Growth rates from 2005Q1 to 2009Q3)
Source: Eurostat. Labor Force Survey.
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
United
Kingdom
Italy
France
Spain
Germany
Belgium
0%
2004
2%
2003
4%
2002
6%
2001
8%
2000
10%
1999
107
106
105
104
103
102
101
100
12%
Source: Eurostat. Labor Force Survey.
(Relative to EU-27, PPP)
8
Cost competitiveness
• Loss of competitiveness has been moderate in the tradable sector
• Nominal divergence stems from non-tradables (where the bulk of
the adjustment is taking place)
Unit labour cost index
Manufacturing ULC index
(Relative to eurozone 1999=100)
(Relative to eurozone 1999=100)
Source: Eurostat.
Italy
Germany
Spain
France
Source: Eurostat
Italy
Germany
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
Spain
1999
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
France
9
Exports show underlying improvement in supply
• In spite of brisk
competitiveness…
domestic
demand
and
waning
price
• …Spain's market shares have outperformed most of peers
Share in world merchandise exports
(Index 2000=100)
Share in world exports of services*
(Index 2000=100)
150
120
110
125
100
100
90
80
75
70
60
2000
50
2001
2002
Spain
2003
2004
Germany
2005
2006
France
Source: International Monetary Fund.
2007
2008
2009
United States
2000
2001
2002
Spain
2003
Germany
2004
2005
France
2006
2007
2008
United States
Source: World Trade Organisation.
* Services other than transportation and travel.
10
Services Exports’ market share has increased
significantly
• Among others, services related to architecture, construction and
engineering have more than doubled market share
Share of service exports in the OCDE, by service
10
2000
2007
8
6
4
2
Source: OECD.
Government
Entertainment
Other
Professional
services to
Royalties and
patents
Information
services
Financial
Insurance
Architectural,
construction,
and engineering
Communications
Tourism
Transportation
services
Total
0
11
FDI flows have increased significantly
• Outward FDI stock per capita has grown faster in Spain than in
the Eurozone
• Remains a major destination of international investment
Top receivers of FDI in 2008
Outward FDI stock per capita
relative to Eurozone
(Stock in millions of US $)
2500000
0.90
0.85
2000000
0.80
1500000
0.75
1000000
0.70
500000
0.65
Source: World Investment Report 2009
US
France
UK
Hong Kong
Germany
Netherlands
Spain
Belgium
Canada
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
China
0.60
Switzerland
Italy
0
Source: World Investment Report 2009
12
The crisis prompts an abrupt adjustment
• Rapid downsizing of residential sector: output, L (mainly in
temporary contracts)
• Ripple effects on employment in other sectors
Unemployment rate
(In percent)
20
Sectoral employment
(total number)
16
july 2008
Total
12
8
sept 2009
dif
%
19.382.121
17.935.095
-1.447.026
(100)
Construction
2.361.177
1.752.157
-609.021
(42,1)
Industry
2.731.068
2.377.211
-353.857
(24,5)
Services
13.150.027
12.599.061
-550.966
(38,1)
Sources: Eurostat. Labor Force Survey.
4
2005
2006
Spain
2007
2008
2009
Euro area (16 countries)
Sources: Eurostat. Labor Force Survey.
13
Changes in sectoral and external balances
• Large swing in private sector balance: plummeting Investment and
soaring Savings
• Government Deficit jumps, but 2.5 points of GDP are one-off
• Current Account deficit has halved in 2009
Sectoral balances
(% of GDP)
8
6
4
2
%
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
-14
Public Sector Balance
1,9
-4,1
-5,0
-11,0
2007
Source: National Statistics Institute, Spain.
6,5
Private Sector
Balance
-11,4
2008
2009
14
• Highlights
• The long growth cycle and the crisis
• Fiscal consolidation and structural reform
• Funding Strategy of the Kingdom of Spain
15
Policy Strategy for Sustainable Growth
• Prudent Macroeconomic Scenario 2010-2013
• Agreement on Fiscal Consolidation to bring the deficit
back to 3% in 2013
• Structural Reforms:
• Structural Reforms in the goods markets
• Public Pensions System
• Labour Market
• Banking sector Restructuring
16
The Government’s Macroeconomic scenario
• The output gap will be closed by 2013, after peaking in 2010
• External demand contribution to GDP will gradually wane as
domestic demand gathers steam
• Potential growth will recover from a trough of 0.6% in 2010 to
1.6% in 2013
Macroeconomic scenario 2009-2013
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
GDP
-3.6
-0.3
1.8
2.9
3.1
Final Consumption Expenditure
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
-2.4
-15.7
0.3
-6.5
1.7
0.3
2.2
4.2
2.1
5.9
National Demand (contribution to GDP growth)
-6.4
-1.4
1.4
2.6
3.0
Exports of Goods and Services
Imports of Goods and Services
-12.4
-18.7
2.8
-1.3
5.2
3.7
6.9
5.8
7.4
6.8
2.8
1.1
0.4
0.3
0.1
(Growth rate in percent)
External demand (contribution to GDP growth)
Source: Annual update of the Stability Programme.
17
Fiscal consolidation strategy
• Substantial reduction in Spending and moderate increase
in Revenues
• Already in 2010 a 2.2% cut in structural deficit
Fiscal Adjustment Path 2009-2013
(Growth rate in percent)
GDP
General Government Budget Balance (% of GDP)
General Government Gross Debt (% of GDP)
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
-3.6
-11.4
55.2
-0.3
-9.8
65.9
1.8
-7.5
71.9
2.9
-5.3
74.3
3.1
-3.0
74.1
Source: Annual update of the Stability Programme.
18
Starting and final points of fiscal consolidation
• Temporary measures (changes in tax collection, one off
investment funds) account for 2.4% points of GDP in 2009’s total
deficit
• Total size of fiscal policy adjustment (structural terms): 5.7% of
GDP
Fiscal position
General Government Balance (1)
Cyclical component (2)
Interest payments (3)
Temporary measures (4)
Structural Primary Balance (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)
2009
-11,4
-1,4
-1,9
-2,5
-5,6
2013
-3
0
-3,1
0
0,1
Source: Annual update of the Stability Programme.
19
Fiscal restraint measures
Measures adopted and announced (% of GDP)
VAT
Excise Taxes
400€ Tax Rebate Reform
2010 Budget
Savings Tax Reform
SME Corporate Tax Reform
Government Expenditure
Additional cut in 2010 Expenditure
New Measures* Central Government Austerity Plan 2011-2013
Regional and local government Spending cuts
Revenues
0.7
0.3
0.4
0.1
-0.1
Expenditures
-0.8
-0.5
-2.6
-0.5
Source: Annual update of the Stability Programme.
• Restraint in wage outlays for all public administrations through:
• 10% replacement rate
• No new temporary hiring
• Strong moderation in wages
• Sizable cuts in investment, transfers and subsidies
20
Can we implement this?
• We have done it in the past, which proves our compromise, the
quality of our public finances, and the success of our fiscal
discipline.
• Shared commitment to fiscal discipline and margin to secure
further reductions in the deficit
Net Lending (+)/Borrowing (-) of General Government
(% nominal GDP, EDP)
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
-8.0
-10.0
-12.0
* Annual update of the Stability Programme.
2013*
2012*
2011*
2010*
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
-14.0
21
Debt dynamics
• Even after the impact of strong stabilisation policies, Spain's Debt
to GDP is significantly lower that the Eurozone average
Gross Debt-to-GDP (%)
Gross Debt-to-GDP (%)
2000-2010
2010F
90
80
125.0
France
Germany
Spain
112.5
100.0
Eurozone
Average: 84.0%
87.5
70
75.0
65.9
60
55.2
50
62.5
50.0
37.5
25.0
40
39.7
30
12.5
0.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Spain
Ireland
France
Germany
Italy
Sources: European Commission, Annual update of the Stability Programme and International Monetary Fund.
UK
USA
22
Lowest interest burden within affordable limits
Ratio of interests to GDP of General Government
(% nominal GDP, EDP)
13
11
9
7
5
3
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
*
20
10
*
1
Spain
Germany
France
Belgium
Italy
UK
Source: European Commission.
* European Economic Forecast Autumn 2009, European Commission.
23
Structural Reforms in product markets
• Improving the institutional environment for business: by
modernizing and simplifying government activities as well as
increasing general government discipline
• Fostering competitiveness: by reducing the administrative
burden of creating companies and reducing red tape
• Fostering modernization: promoting sectors that are at the base
of economic activity (R&D, innovation and training), improving
support for their integration into the overall value chain, and
facilitating the internationalization of businesses
Estimated impact on GDP ⇨ + 0.32% in Potential GDP
24
Residential Real Estate Sector
• Phasing out fiscal incentives for housing ownership from
2011 (deduction of mortgage payments)
• Removing barriers to the development of the rental market:
• Same fiscal treatment than ownership
• Creation of REITS
• Legal changes to strengthen certainty for landlords
• Tax Incentives for refurbishment provide some support
25
Preventive financial support measures
Credit
Credit
stimulus
stimulus
Liquidity enhancement
enhancement
Liquidity
FROB
ICO
lines
FAAF funding
Bank
guarantees
(20082009)
Capital
enhancement
Reorganization
and
reorganisation
9 bn€ capital- 27
bn € guaranteed
funding authorized.
Independent
funding and
management
M&A banking arm
of supervisor
20 bn € since 2007
Risk sharing
Second tier funding
Extended 30 June
2010. But markets
open
48 bn€, around 150
bonds
De facto, phased
out.
19.3 bn€
High quality
collateral
26
The financial system remains resilient
• Main source of perceived vulnerability regards losses
stemming from lending to real estate developers
• Bank of Spain stress test: Operating income over 3
years is able to absorb losses of 40% of the portfolio
of lending to real estate developers.
• Extreme assumptions of stress test: PD of 40%(3
times the peak of 1993) and LGD of 100 % (highly
implausible)
27
FROB: a tool for restructuring the banking sector
Governance
Rationale for the initiative
- Overcoming fragmentation
savings and banks sector.
in
the
- Achievement of economies of scale to
digest low interest margins and real
estate impact.
- Independent management.
- Strong accountability to Parliament.
- Authorized by DG Competition.
Asset Operations
Funding
- Support to integration processes subject
to conditions
set
by the
banking
supervisor.
- Public-private mix of capital (9 bn€).
- Instrumented
through
convertible
preference shares with market-oriented
remuneration.
- Agency-like
coordinated
programme.
funding
with
the
programme
sovereign
28
Pension System Reform
Proposed Measures:
• A progressive increase in the retirement age (to 67
years)
• Strengthening relationship between contributions and benefits
• A more flexible relationship between complementary social
security and the public system
• Possible adjustment of other parameters of the current system
Expected Results: Sustainability of the pension system
29
Labour Market Reform
• Five main guidelines:
• Stability in employment, by reducing market segmentation
• Reform of Collective Bargaining system
• Incentives for young workers’ employment and education
• Promotion of the integration of women in the labour market
• Worker intermediation and greater control of temporary
occupational disability claims
30
• Highlights
• The long growth cycle and the crisis
• Fiscal consolidation and structural reform
• Funding Strategy of the Kingdom of Spain
31
Highlights of Funding Strategy
• Significant reduction in net funding requirements and
persistence of sound risk metrics
• Liquidity, transparency and predictability will continue
as guiding principles for the execution of our auction program
• As for syndications, timing is dictated by the limit size of the
line to be replaced (16.5 bn for longer tenors) and market
conditions.
• Innovations for 2010: 18-month T-bills reappear, Euro
inflation linker still a project
• Maintain our stable and diversified investor base
32
The funding strategy
Tesoro Funding in 2010
(Billion euro)
1: Funding requirement = Net Issuance
2: Redemptions bonds 2010
3: Net issuance medium long term
4 = 2 + 3 Gross Issuance Medium-Long Term
76.8
35.4
61.6
97,0
5: Net Increase T-Bills
6: Assumption of RTVE debt
15.2
1.5
7 = 3 + 5 + 6: Net change outstanding debt
8: Forecast Outstanding Central Government Debt at end 2010
78.3
553.5
Source: General State Budgets Bill 2010
33
Funding programme in perspective
• Cut in Net Issuance: lower cash deficit and no exceptional
increase in net financial assets
Funding Programme. 2010 vs. 2009
(Net issuance in billion Euro)
140
120
116.7
2009
2010
100
80
82.3
76.8
61.6
60
34.4
40
15.2
20
0
Total Net Issuance
Letras del Tesoro net Medium & long term
issues
net issues*
(*) Includes foreign currency issues.
Source: Dirección General del Tesoro y Política Financiera.
34
Short-term funding
• Net issuance in 2009 in line with initial announcement: 34.4 bn€.
Gross issuance breakdown:
• 3-month Letras: 19.7 bn€
• 6-month Letras: 31.6 bn€
• 12-month Letras: 58.0 bn€
• Innovations in 2010:
• Calendar change: 3- and 6-month Letras auction 4th Tuesday
• 18-month T-bills relaunched: auction 3rd Tuesday
35
Medium- and long-term funding
• Gross issuance: 2009 overshooting (ca. 25 bn €) due to higher than
expected impact of the crisis
• Auction procedures unchanged: Quarterly calendar + potential offthe-run lines announced Friday prior to the auction
• Limit size per line: increased to 16.5 bn € for longer lines
• Bonos del Estado:
• New 5-year benchmark in March
• Current 3-year benchmark B 2.30% 04/2013 issued until 15 bn €
• Obligaciones del Estado:
• New 10 year O 4.00% 04/2020 (5 bn €) successfully syndicated in
January
• Next syndication a 15 year line, to replace the matured O 4.80% Jan2024), expected for February depending on market conditions
36
Diversification of funding sources
• Recent foreign currency issuance:
• Eurobond 2.75% March 2012 ($ 1.0 billion)
• Eurobond 2.00% October 2012 ($ 2.5 billion)
• Tesoro Público is open to additional foreign currency issuance
• Floating Rate Note 3-Month EURIBOR-10 bps, October 2012
(€ 3.0 billion). Possible retapping in 2010
• Projects:
• European inflation-linked issues (HICP-ex tobacco)
• Schuldschein loans
37
Main features of Treasury funding strategy
Spanish debt portfolio
600
554
(€ billion)
475
500
400
358
319 312
307
300
229
200
100
Foreign Currency
Other
Letras
Source: Dirección General del Tesoro y Política Financiera.
2010 (f)
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
0
Bonos y Obligaciones
38
Recent widening might be an opportunity
Spread of the Spanish 10-year bond vs. main European peers
(in bps)
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
-25
-50
Source: Bloomberg.
Germany
Italy
France
Belgium
Netherlands
Jan-10
Feb-10
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Sep-07
Oct-07
-75
39
Cheapening concentrated in the front end
Spread of the Spanish 5-year bond vs. main European peers
(in bps)
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
-25
-50
Germany
Source: Bloomberg.
Italy
France
Belgium
Netherlands
Jan-10
Feb-10
Nov-09
Dec-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Nov-07
Dec-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
-75
40
An atractive market to invest in
Attractive prices
Liquid instruments
Solid and efficient
infrastructure
Diversified investor
base
41
Increase in market liquidity
Average outstanding size: 13.5 bn €
Target for average outstanding <10 years: 15 bn €
Target for average outstanding >10 years: 15 bn €
20
18
16
On-the-run bonds
3.25%
5.40%
4.10%
3.90%
5.35%
14
6.15%
5.00%
4.75%
5.50%
4.30%
4.20%
4.80%
4.60%
3.80%
5.75%
4.25%
2.75%
12
4.40%
3.15%
3.30%
4.20%
6.00%
4.10%
4.90%
2.30%
10
8
6
4.00%
4.70%
4
2
Source: Dirección General del Tesoro y Política Financiera.
Jul-41
Jul-40
Jan-37
Jul-32
Jan-29
Jan-24
Apr-20
Oct-19
Jul-19
Jul-18
Jul-17
Jan-17
Jan-16
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jul-10
0
42
Low Debt Refinancing Risk…
Redemption profile of Bonos & Obligaciones
(Million Euros)
50.000
45.000
40.000
35.000
30.000
25.000
20.000
15.000
10.000
5.000
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020- 2024 2029 2032 2037 2040 2041
2023
Source: Dirección General del Tesoro y Política Financiera.
43
Low Debt Refinancing Risk…
Central Government Debt refinancing risk
(in % of the total portfolio)
50
42
(%)
40
30
20
20
21
24
22
21
10
18
18
7
0
1 year or less
1 to 3 years
31.12.1995
31.12.1999
3 to 5 years
31.01.2010
Source: Dirección General del Tesoro y Política Financiera.
44
…Thanks to relatively high duration and average life
to maturity…
Duration & Average Life to Maturity of the Portfolio
(Letras, Bonos and Obligaciones)
(in years)
8.0
6.69
6.0
5.52
4.79
4.0
6.78
4.77
4.16
Average life
France
6,24
Netherlands
6,88
Belgium
5,94
Italy
7,07
2.0
0.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Duration
Average life
Source: Dirección General del Tesoro y Política Financiera.
45
…while achieving lower Funding Costs
Average Funding Costs
(in percent)
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.32
4.5
4.0
3.81
3.5
3.49
3.0
2.5
2.27
2.0
1.5
1.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Average cost of Debt outstanding
Average cost at issuance
Source: Dirección General del Tesoro y Política Financiera.
46
Reliance on foreign funding relatively moderate
External public sector debt in 2009
United
Kingdom
Argentina
United
States
Spain
Finland
Germany
Netherlands
Ireland
France
Austria
Belgium
Greece
Italy
(% of GDP)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Source: OECD.
47
Banks financing of government debt in line with
Eurozone average
Holdings of government debt November 2009
(% of bank assets)
25
20
15
10
Finland
Portugal
Austria
Germany
Netherlands
Ireland
Euro area
France
Spain
Italy
Greece
Belgium
0
Slovakia
5
Source: Citi.
48
Spanish Banks’ funding from ECB around
Eurozone average
Recourse to ECB funding
(% of total bank assets)
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
jul-08
BE
FR
FI
AU
GR
PO
ESP
IT
IRL
GE
NL
0%
oct-09
Source: Deutsche Bank.
49
Stable and diversified investor base
Government Bonds by Holder
(Term investment, % of total portfolio)
100%
Spanish official
institutions
90%
80%
33.37%
Non residents
70%
43.94%
Households &
Non financ.
60%
50%
Pension & Mutual
Funds
40%
30%
20%
Insurance
Companies
10%
Credit Institutions
0%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: Dirección General del Tesoro y Política Financiera.
50
Stable and diversified investor base
Letras del Tesoro by Holder
(Term investment, % of total portfolio)
100%
90%
Spanish Official
Institutions
80%
Non-Residents
70%
Households & Non
financ.
60%
50%
Pension and Mutual
Funds
40%
30%
48.97%
Insurance companies
35.57%
20%
Credit Institutions
10%
0%
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Source: Dirección General del Tesoro y Política Financiera.
2007
2008
2009
51
Stable and diversified investor base
Government Bonds by Holder
(Term investment, % of total portfolio)
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
France
Japan
Germany
Italy
2006
BENELUX
2007
Source: Dirección General del Tesoro y Política Financiera.
Rest of EU
2008
Asia, Afica
and others
America
Rest of
Europe
2009
52
Top Primary Dealers in 2009
Bonos y Obligaciones
Barclays
BBVA
Calyon
Santander
Société Générale
Letras
BBVA
Santander
Société Générale
53
Thank you for your attention
José Manuel Campa Fernández– Secretary of State for the Economy
Soledad Núñez – Directora General del Tesoro y Política Financiera
[email protected]
Gonzalo García Andrés – Subdirector General de Gestión y Financiación de la Deuda Pública
ggarcí[email protected]
José Ramón Martínez
[email protected]
Rosa Moral
[email protected]
Leandro Navarro
[email protected]
Pablo de Ramón-Laca
[email protected]
Ignacio Vicente
[email protected]
Rocío Chico
[email protected]
For more information please contact:
Phone: 34 91 209 95 29/30/31/32 - Fax:34 91 209 97 10
Reuters: TESORO
Bloomberg: TESO
Internet: www.tesoro.es
54
Annex: the Social Security Reserve Fund
Social Security Reserve Fund asset holdings
70
(Billon €)
60
50
40
30
20
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
0
2000
10
The Social Security Reserve Fund amounted in December 2009 to approximately 5.7%
(€ 60bn) of GDP.
55
Annex: Ley de Economía Sostenible & General
Agreement on Fiscal Sustainability
Tax measures
Competitiveness
-
Society of Information.
Science, R&D.
Internationalisation of SME’s.
Education.
Reduction of administrative burden.
Fiscal Sustainability
Environment
- Energy Policy.
- CO2 Emission-reduction.
- Efficiency
of
transport
infrastructure.
- Rental market: equal treatment with
ownership.
- Elimination of tax rebates: i.e. relief
on mortgage payments, 400€ rebate
on income tax.
- Corporate
Income
Tax
rebates
related
to
R&D
and
to
the
environment.
and
- Spanish
regions
to
formulate
quarterly reports to the Fiscal Policy
Council.
- Correction and surveillance of fiscal
deficits.
- Debt/GDP ratio to reach limit of
60% by 2013.
56