Download Eastern Caribbean Currency Union

Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU)
July 2016
ECCU—Recent Developments in 2016
OECS Pushing Forward on Development of a Single Domestic Space
Trade officials and border control agencies from the Organization of Eastern
Caribbean States (OECS) have discussed practical approaches to support the
free circulation of people and goods within the OECS. According to the OECS,
once in place, the Single Domestic Space would require persons travelling
within the Economic Union Area (EUA) be treated as if they have already
been cleared for entry and satisfied all required border control formalities
for entry into the area. Additionally, visitors arriving from outside the space
should satisfy all border control checks only at the first point of entry into
the EUA, and then be able to move freely within the area. No timeframe was
agreed for the Single Domestic Space to be implemented, however.
OECS Countries Pursue Renewables, Especially Geothermal Energy
Source : IDB Caribbean Regional Quarterly Bulletin June 2016
The high cost of energy production in the OECS, and the commitment to reduce carbon emissions, have forced many countries to look to renewables,
with geothermal energy taking the spotlight at a recent three-day regional
forum in St. Kitts & Nevis. According to a recent IMF report, apart from Antigua & Barbuda, ECCU countries possess enough geothermal potential to
achieve self-sufficiency in electricity power generation. At present, geothermal development in Dominica, Nevis and Montserrat is the most advanced,
while St. Vincent & the Grenadines have made some progress. St. Kitts has
opted to pursue solar power with the launch of several initiatives.
Caribbean Most Affected by Loss of Correspondent Banking
Source : IMF Working Paper WP/16/53
According to the World Bank, “small jurisdictions with significant offshore
banking activities are particularly affected by the decline of correspondent
banking relationships (CBRs)”, and furthermore, the Caribbean seems to be
the most affected region worldwide. While the report noted that the majori-
Sinead Camps
ty of respondent banks have been able to find alternative banking relation-
RBC Caribbean
[email protected]
ships, in some cases the time and cost of finding new relationships are signifi-
Marla Dukharan
ous correspondent bank. For the Caribbean, the loss of CBRs is mainly a result
Group Economist
RBC Caribbean
(868) 688-9845
[email protected]
of international banks’ de-risking, linked to the perception that the Caribbe-
cant, and not always on comparable terms and conditions as with the previ-
an is a risky place to do business from a reputational, AML/CFT regulation
compliance view, amplified by high costs and limited economies of scale.
Citizenship by Investment Programmes (CBI) in the ECCU
ECCU Real GDP Growth
% change, y/y
5.17
6
2.96
2.93
2.62
4
2
0.37
1.09
1.65
2.14
2.91
3.07
4.12
4.54
5.29
6.44
8
2017p
2016p
2015e
2014e
2013
2012
2010
(0.23) 2011
(2)
(3.45)
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2000
(0.72) 2001
(4)
(5.28)
increasing, based partly on the availability of programs that incentivize real
estate investment, offering residency permits and citizenship in the Caribbean. St. Kitts & Nevis launched the first CBI nearly 30 years ago, and offered
-
(6)
immediate citizenship to immigrant investors. With the success of the St.
Kitts & Nevis program that has transformed the island’s economy in recent
years, Antigua & Barbuda, Dominica, and Grenada subsequently launched
their own CBI programmes. The schemes, with some variations, revolve
Source: Eastern Caribbean Central Bank Online Statistics, RBC Financial (Caribbean) Limited
ECCB Import Cover Ratio
Number of Months
6
5.40
4.85
5
around the granting of citizenship and a passport for an investment of around
USD400K plus fees, in property, government bonds, or by way of a donation.
According to the Henley & Partners Visa Restrictions Index, the Antigua &
4.13
4.05
The number of high net worth individuals in the Caribbean is reported to be
4
3.61
3.31
2.81
Barbuda and St Kitts & Nevis passports provide visa-free travel to 132 coun-
3
tries and territories including all 26 European countries in the Schengen zone.
2
Dominica and Grenada passports provide visa-free travel to 111 countries and
2.42
2.20
1
territories including all 26 European countries in the Schengen zone.
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Subscribers to ECCU CBI Programmes are Highly Diverse
Source: Eastern Caribbean Central Bank Online Statistics, RBC Financial (Caribbean) Limited
ECCU Annual Average Inflation Rate
% change, y/y
3.95
3.61
2.88
5
According to Fortune Magazine, there is a high level of diversity among CBI
4
participants. Applicants include wealthy Chinese entrepreneurs seeking to
3
flee from largely unspoken concerns about their Government's anti-corruption
2
drive, or seeking to provide an international education for their children.
1
Wealthy Russians also commonly cite the desire to avoid the growing suppres-
-
sion of dissent, the expropriation of businesses, and high organised crime. A
(1)
growing number of Arab citizens, unsettled by instability and US embargos/
(2)
sanctions, and a significant number of US entrepreneurs seeking to escape
1.50
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
0.88
(1.24)
Source: Eastern Caribbean Central Bank Online Statistics, RBC Financial (Caribbean) Limited
the US's ever widening tax net, have also been applying.
ECCU Overall Fiscal Balance After Grants
300
182.08
XCD Millions
200
100
ECCU CBI Programmes Face Some Opposition and Challenges
(697.88)
2014
2015
(46.66)
-200
-400
-500
(523.45)
(467.36)
(329.01)
(323.76)
-100
-300
-600
-700
(661.24)
(406.46)
(413.46)
(469.26)
(353.32)
(561.52)
(420.23)
(341.71)
(193.30)
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
0
If the UK pursues an exit from the EU in keeping with the referendum results,
depending on how these negotiations progress, there may be implications for
travel and visa requirements for Caricom passport holders, including CBI
based passports, to the Schengen zone in particular. In general, opponents to
CBI programmes believe that nationality is not something that can be sold;
-800
Source: Eastern Caribbean Central Bank Online Statistics, RBC Financial (Caribbean) Limited
the granting of rights and freedoms to persons without any historic or cultural
ECCU Net FDI Inflows 2015
affinity with the Country is deemed by some to be unacceptable. The US,
USD Millions
160
Canada and the UK all have economic citizenship programmes which can be a
148.3
140
120.4
120
100
dency, unlike Dominica and St. Kitts & Nevis. The US and Canada have long
92.5
85.4
75.7
80
questioned the adequacy of ECCU CBI due diligence and background checks of
60.1
60
40
fast track to citizenship but isn’t guaranteed, and in all cases require resi-
applicants, such that Canada imposed visa restrictions on St. Kitts & Nevis
34.0
passport holders in November 2014. Since then, the St. Kitts & Nevis CBI pro-
20
4.1
0
Anguilla
Antigua and
Barbuda
Dominica
Source: UNCTAD, RBC Financial (Caribbean) Limited
2
Grenada
Montserrat
Saint Kitts and Saint Lucia
Nevis
Saint Vincent
and the
Grenadines
gramme has been reformed, which the IMF recently commended.
Zika Virus May Have Adverse Impact on Caribbean Tourism Industry
With travel alerts from the Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC),
ECCU Total Visitor Arrivals
Annual total arrivals
4,500,000
the Caribbean Hotel and Tourism Association (CHTA) and the Caribbean Tour-
4,000,000
ism Organization (CTO) have rolled out proactive measures to reduce the risk
3,500,000
of Zika virus transmission to visitors. The virus is a major and immediate
3,000,000
threat to the Caribbean tourism industry, which relies on nearly 13 million
2,500,000
Americans who visit annually according to the CTO. Governments and hotels’
2006
2007
2008
2010
2011
(5.77)
2015
2014
2.58
3.07
2.24
2013 2014 Pr 2015 2016 Pj 2017 Pj
Est
Source: Eastern Caribbean Central Bank Online Statistics, RBC Financial (Caribbean) Limited
Anguilla Import Cover Ratio
Number of months
3.00
1.8% was recorded in 2015 based mainly on softer commodity import prices.
2.56
2.55
2.42
2.37
2.35
The fiscal surplus narrowed from XCD21.3 million or 2.5% of GDP in 2014, to
XCD3.9 million or 0.5% of GDP in 2015. Total public sector debt outstanding
2013
2012
2011
2012
(15)
(20)
Construction is the only sector estimated to have contracted. Deflation of
2009
(10)
down from 6.7% in 2014, as the tourism sector; real estate, renting and business activities; and transport, storage and communications all expanded.
2010
0.32
2005
(1.77)
2004
(1.16)
2003
(16.53)
apart from Canada saw growth. The ECCB estimates growth at 2.2% in 2015,
2009
(5)
2015, and a further 9.4% y/y to March 2016, as all major source markets
2008
2007
2006
2005
6.74
6.25
5
(0.31)
CTO and Global News Matters (GNM) data show stopover arrivals up 3.2% in
10
9.20
15
Anguilla—Narrower Fiscal and Balance of Payments Surpluses
2004
2003
2002
2001
20
17.25
case management, and public education campaigns.
Anguilla GDP Growth
% change, y-o-y
15.52
ing areas, monitoring and surveillance, eradication and protection, care and
Source: Eastern Caribbean Central Bank Online Statistics, RBC Financial (Caribbean) Limited
14.55
grounds, installing screens on windows and placing bed nets in outdoor sleep-
2,000,000
2000
joint efforts seek to combat mosquito-borne viruses by eradicating breeding
2.50
2.24
2.00
1.89
1.54
1.50
1.38
shrank by 4.1% y/y to XCD212.7 million at the end of 2015, to reach 24.7% of
GDP. The surplus on the Balance of Payments fell to XCD2.3 million or 0.3% of
1.00
GDP in 2015, down from XCD16.9 million or 2% of GDP in 2014. Net interna-
0.50
2013
2014
7.21
2004
2015
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
(15)
2014
Pr
3.32
3.23
3.32
1.54
(10)
3.61
ada. Cruise passenger arrivals fell 2% y/y over the same period according to
2003
(1.87)
to May 2016, based on growth from all major source markets apart from Can-
(5)
(10.67)
-
3.24
5.71
CTO and GNM data show stopover arrivals grew 0.5% in 2015, and by 9.2% y/y
4.21
15
5
construction; 4.7% growth in transport, storage and communications; 9.4%
2012
Antigua & Barbuda GDP Growth
Antigua & Barbuda—Fiscal Balance and USD Reserves Strengthen
driven mainly by 2.5% expansion in hotels and restaurants, 4.9% growth in
2011
% change, y-o-y
10
CTO data. The ECCB estimates 2015 growth at 3.3%, down from 4.2% in 2014,
2010
2015 2016 Pj2017 Pj
Est
(8.53)
subdued construction activity, according to the ECCB.
2009
1.54
moderate during 2016 due to a combination of stronger tourism activity and
2008
7.07
cover remained relatively unchanged at 2.6 months. Growth is expected to
2007
Source: Eastern Caribbean Central Bank Online Statistics, RBC Financial (Caribbean) Limited
12.72
tional reserves expanded by 1.8% in 2015 to XCD130 million, while import
Source: Eastern Caribbean Central Bank Online Statistics, RBC Financial (Caribbean) Limited
Antigua & Barbuda Import Cover Ratio
Number of months
7.00
growth in wholesale and retail trade; and 1.7% expansion in real estate, rent-
5.97
ing and business activities. Inflation fell to 0.9% in 2015. The fiscal balance
6.00
5.00
4.59
swung into surplus of XCD3.5 million or 0.1% of GDP in 2015, largely on CBI
4.00
3.35
inflows. Total public sector debt outstanding fell by 4.8% to reach XCD3.22
2.58
3.00
2.61
2.25
billion or 92.1% of GDP in 2015. The Balance of Payments surplus slipped 39%
1.73
1.54
2.00
1.43
1.00
to XCD155.6 million or 4.4% of GDP. Net International Reserves grew by 20%
to XCD960 million in 2015, pushing import cover to six months.
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Eastern Caribbean Central Bank Online Statistics, RBC Financial (Caribbean) Limited
3
Dominica- Recovery Underway After Tropical Storm Erika
Dominica GDP Growth
% change, y-o-y
GNM data show stopover arrivals fell 8.6% in 2015. The ECCB reported that
tropical storm Erika sparked economic contraction of 3.7% in 2015, having
damaged infrastructure and major sectors such as agriculture, livestock, for-
1.04
1.52
2.64
4
2
following two consecutive years of growth averaging 2.6%, the impact of
5.40
5.59
6
3.02
5.11
5.98
6.20
8
6.68
7.12
8.54
10
estry, construction, hotels and restaurants, and manufacturing. Inflation
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Pr
2015
Est
2016
Pj
2017
Pj
came in at 0.6% in 2015. The overall fiscal deficit narrowed slightly to
(4)
XCD16.3 million or 1.2% of GDP in 2015, down from XCD18.7 million or 1.3% of
(2.61)
(3.08)
(2.10)
(2)
GDP in 2014. Total public sector debt grew by 3% to XCD1.11 billion or 80% of
Source: Eastern Caribbean Central Bank Online Statistics, RBC Financial (Caribbean) Limited
Dominica Import Cover Ratio
GDP in 2015. The Balance of Payments surplus widened from XCD48.3 million
Number of months
6.00
or 3.4% of GDP in 2014, to XCD57.5 or 4.1% of GDP in 2015. Consequently, Net
5.00
International Reserves expanded by 25.5% in 2015 to reach XCD338.7 million,
4.00
or 5.1 months of imports. According to the IMF, growth is expected to resume
3.00
in 2016, reaching 1.3% as the reconstruction effort and investment acceler-
2.00
ates, based on anticipated donor grants. The IMF then expects growth to re-
5.10
4.01
3.92
3.82
3.10
2.81
2.77
2.68
2.11
1.00
cover slowly, stabilizing around 1.7%.
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Grenada– Strong IMF Assisted Home-Grown Programme Results
Source: Eastern Caribbean Central Bank Online Statistics, RBC Financial (Caribbean) Limited
Grenada GDP Growth
Following 4.7% stopover arrival growth in 2015, GNM and CTO data show 8.6%
12.49
% change, y-o-y
14
y/y growth to April 2016, based on more visitors from the US and ‘other’ mar-
12
kets. Over the same period, cruise passenger arrivals jumped 31% y/y, ac-
8.55
0.12
2
cording to CTO. The current three-year IMF assisted home-grown adjustment
1.76
programme which began in 2014, is at a critical stage according to the ECCB.
0.14
1.69
4
1.90
3.18
6
3.93
8
4.85
6.28
10
-
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
(1.99)
Growth is provisionally estimated at 3.9% in 2015, down from 4.9% in 2014. In
2013 2014e 2015e 2016p 2017p
2015 the construction sector expanded by 12%; agriculture, livestock and
(5.63)
(4.38)
(6)
2012
(0.58)
2003
(2)
(4)
(8)
forestry by 22.4%; hotels and restaurants by 5%; wholesale and retail trade by
Source: Eastern Caribbean Central Bank Online Statistics, RBC Financial (Caribbean) Limited
7%; transport, storage and communications by 3.7%; manufacturing by 3%.
Grenada Import Cover Ratio
Deflation was recorded for a third consecutive year, reaching 1.2% in 2015.
Number of Months
6.00
4.98
28.9% in 2014, as the labour force widened on a higher labour force participa-
4.00
tion rate, particularly for women. The overall fiscal deficit narrowed from
3.00
XCD115.2 million or 4.7% of GDP in 2014, to XCD32.1 million or 1.2% of GDP in
2.00
2015. Debt restructuring agreements in 2015 with Paris Club and other credi-
1.00
tors saw total public sector debt decline 3.9% or XCD91.5 million to XCD2.265
-
billion or 86% of GDP. The Balance of Payments surplus widened from
4.28
3.48
3.47
3.02
2.83
2.92
2.86
2.57
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Eastern Caribbean Central Bank Online Statistics, RBC Financial (Caribbean) Limited
XCD61.7 million or 2.5% of GDP in 2014, to XCD81.7 million or 3.1% of GDP in
Montserrat GDP Growth
2015. This drove a 19% increase in Net International Reserves to XCD509 mil-
% change, y-o-y
lion, or five months of imports in 2015. The IMF reported that growth is ex-
6.15
8
2.29
1.94
1.29
0.34
1.57
2.79
3.22
3.29
2.67
2.88
1.06
2
pected to moderate to 3% in 2016 and 2.7% in 2017.
4.60
6
4
-
(1.40)
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015e 2016p 2017p
(3.03)
(2)
(4)
Source: Eastern Caribbean Central Bank Online Statistics, RBC Financial (Caribbean) Limited
4
Unemployment is estimated to have increased to 30.4% in 2015, up from
5.00
Montserrat—Growth Turns Negative in 2015 but Recovery Likely
GNM and CTO data show stopover arrivals grew 1.6% in 2015, and 26.8% y/y
to March 2016, as all major source markets besides Canada saw growth. The
ECCB estimates contraction of 1.4% in 2015, following growth estimated at
1.3% in 2014. The tourism sector expanded by an estimated 5% in 2015, down
from 19% in 2014; mining and quarrying grew by 51%; financial intermediation
Montserrat Import Cover Ratio
Number of months
12.00
11.33
by 4.4%; wholesale and retail trade by 3%; and transport, storage and com-
10.00
9.43
munications by 6.5%, but all other sectors deteriorated. Deflation was record-
8.00
6.98
ed for a fourth consecutive year, though slower, at 0.1% in 2015. The overall
fiscal balance swung into a surplus of XCD34.5 million or 20.6% of GDP in
6.85
6.01
6.00
4.60
3.82
3.73
2015, compared to a deficit of XCD9.8 million or 5.8% of GDP in 2014. Total
4.00
2.41
2.00
public sector debt outstanding widened by 45.8% to XCD9.1 million in 2015,
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
St Kitts & Nevis GDP Growth
% change, y-o-y
10
2006
2007
6.64
3.60
4.65
6
6.07
6.20
8
4.82
International Reserves to XCD292 million, or 11.33 months of imports.
2010
3.42
from XCD12.4 million or 7.4% of GDP in 2014. This drove a 21% increase in Net
2009
8.72
mated to have expanded by 38.8% to XCD17.2 million or 10.3% of GDP, up
2008
4.56
generator and build a power plant. The Balance of Payments surplus is esti-
2007
Source: Eastern Caribbean Central Bank Online Statistics, RBC Financial (Caribbean) Limited
3.94
based on a Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) loan to purchase a new diesel
4
2
by expansion in construction by 15.2%; hotels and restaurants by 4.6%; and
transport, storage and communications by 9.3%. This was tempered by weak-
2005
2008
2009
2010
(1.88)
(4)
(6)
2012
2013
2014e 2015e 2016p 2017p
Source: Eastern Caribbean Central Bank Online Statistics, RBC Financial (Caribbean) Limited
St Kitts & Nevis Import Cover Ratio
Number of months
er performance in manufacturing (down 3.5%) and agriculture (down 8.2%).
10.00
9.38
9.28
8.83
Deflation was recorded for a second consecutive year, at 2.6% in 2015. The
9.00
8.00
7.66
7.00
6.29
overall fiscal surplus narrowed from XCD241 million or 10.3% of GDP in 2014,
6.00
5.02
to XCD111 million or 4.5% of GDP in 2015. As such, total public sector debt
outstanding fell 13.5% to XCD1.534 billion or 61.6% of GDP in 2015. The Bal-
2011
(0.86)
2004
(3.77)
the ECCB, growth accelerated to 6.6% in 2015, up from 6.1% in 2014, driven
2003
(3.83)
GNM and CTO data show stopover arrival growth at 4.4% in 2015. According to
-
(2)
(4.38)
St. Kitts & Nevis—Strong Growth on CBI and Tourism Performance
5.00
3.89
3.09
4.00
2.96
3.00
2.00
ance of Payments swung into deficit of XCD102.5 million or 4.1% of GDP in
6
2.48
2015
Est
2016
Pj
2017
Pj
1.14
1.08
2
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Pr
(0.70)
2008
(1.93)
2007
(0.79)
2006
(1.45)
2005
(0.58)
2004
(0.76)
2003
(2)
y contraction to April 2016, on lower Canadian and European arrivals. Cruise
2015
2.37
2.78
4
GNM and CTO data show 2% growth in stopover arrivals in 2015, but a 1.5% y/
2014
2.35
8
St. Lucia—Positive Growth Following Three Years of Contraction
2013
St Lucia GDP Growth
2015, 7 months ahead of schedule”. The IMF expects the Government to
for which there is a growing level of competition in the ECCU.
2012
% change, y-o-y
10
look for the economy remains positive but highly dependent on CBI revenues,
2011
Source: Eastern Caribbean Central Bank Online Statistics, RBC Financial (Caribbean) Limited
“successfully exited the Post-Program Monitoring Framework at end-October
reach the ECCU’s 2030 debt/GDP target of 60% percent in 2017, and the out-
2010
8.58
months of imports. In May 2015 the IMF reported that St. Kitts & Nevis
2009
7.81
result, Net International Reserves fell 12% in 2015 to XCD757 million or 6.3
2008
4.41
2015, down from a surplus of XCD73.1 million or 3.1% of GDP in 2014. As a
1.00
2007
(4)
Source: Eastern Caribbean Central Bank Online Statistics, RBC Financial (Caribbean) Limited
St Lucia Import Cover Ratio
Number of months
4.73
passenger arrivals fell 17.4% y/y to April 2016. The ECCB estimates growth at
4.50
4.00
2.4% in 2015, following three consecutive years of contraction, driven by con-
3.45
3.50
3.01
struction at 12%; mining and quarrying at 12%; real estate at 3.5%; transport
and storage at 5.6%; agriculture at 8.1%; manufacturing at 1.8%; and hotels
2.57
2.54
2.56
3.00
2.49
2.50
2.23
1.94
2.00
1.50
and restaurants at 0.4%. Deflation of 2.6% was recorded in 2015. The overall
1.00
fiscal deficit narrowed from XCD137.6 million or 3.6% of GDP in 2014 to
XCD93.6 million or 2.4% of GDP in 2015. This pushed total public sector debt
5.00
0.50
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Eastern Caribbean Central Bank Online Statistics, RBC Financial (Caribbean) Limited
5
up 3% to XCD3 billion or 76.8% of GDP. The surplus on the Balance of Pay% change, y-o-y
ments narrowed from XCD180.5 million or 4.8% of GDP, to XCD106 million or
7.34
St Vincent & Grenadines GDP Growth
2.7% of GDP. This drove Net International Reserves up 26.7% in 2015, to
6.01
8
XCD805 million or 4.7 months of imports. The IMF reported unemployment at
4.61
6
2016
Pj
2017
Pj
0.79
2.11
2.31
1.30
0.24
2
2.03
24.4% in 2014, and positive growth momentum is expected to continue.
3.02
3.02
4
St. Vincent & The Grenadines—Positive Growth Returned in 2015
2006
2007
2009
(2.00)
(2)
2008
(4)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Pr
(0.24)
2005
2015
Est
GNM and CTO data show stopover arrival growth at 6.6% in 2015, and 8.2% to
(2.34)
2004
(0.48)
2003
March 2016, with higher numbers coming from all major source markets.
Source: Eastern Caribbean Central Bank Online Statistics, RBC Financial (Caribbean) Limited
Cruise passenger arrivals were up 6.5% y/y to March 2016. The ECCB estimates that real growth turned positive in 2015, at 0.8%, following a 0.2% contraction in 2014. Expansion in 2015 is estimated in hotels and restaurants at
7.3%; construction at 4%; agriculture at 4.7%; real estate, renting and busi-
St Vincent & The Grenadines Import Cover Ratio
ness activities at 0.7%; transport, storage and communications at 1.6%; and
Number of months
4.66
5.00
4.00
3.46
3.10
3.50
2.95
3.00
2.54
2.35
2.10
financial intermediation at 2.4%, while all other sectors registered declines.
4.50
4.12
2.50
2.11
Deflation of 2.1% was recorded in 2015. The overall fiscal deficit narrowed to
XCD57.6 million or 2.8% of GDP in 2015, from XCD80.4 million or 4.1% of GDP
in 2014, but total public sector debt outstanding declined by 1% to XCD1.555
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
-
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
billion or 76.7% of GDP in 2015. The Balance of Payments surplus narrowed
from XCD62 million or 3.2% of GDP to XCD41.4 million or 2% of GDP, which
drove Net International reserves higher by 5.6% in 2015 to XCD444.8 million
or 4.7 months of imports. The IMF expects growth to intensify as the new
airport begins operating and tourism activity accelerates as a result.
Note : Import cover ratio is calculated using the ECCB’s Net International Reserves and Average
Monthly Import of Goods and Services data provided by the ECCB.
ECCU Economic Indicators
Est.
Nominal GDP
Population
2015 (XCD
(000)
MM)
2015 Real Public sector Overall Fiscal
GDP change debt/GDP (%) Balance (% of
(%)
2015
GDP) 2015
Overall Fiscal
Balance (XCD
MM) 2015
Import cover at
December 2015
(months)
Inflation
y/y (%)
2015
Anguilla
15
735.54
2.2%
24.7%
0.5%
3.9
2.6
-1.8%
Antigua and Barbuda
92
3,016.78
3.3%
92.1%
0.1%
3.5
6.0
0.9%
Dominica
73
1,158.78
-3.7%
80.0%
-1.2%
-16.3
5.1
0.6%
Grenada
107
2,253.73
3.9%
86.0%
1.2%
32.1
5.0
-1.2%
148.62
-1.4%
6.1%
20.6%
34.5
11.3
-0.1%
Montserrat
5
St. Kitts and Nevis
55
2,144.00
6.6%
61.6%
4.5%
111.0
6.3
-2.4%
St. Lucia
184
3,208.30
2.4%
92.9%
-2.4%
-93.6
4.7
-2.6%
St. Vincent & the Grenadines
109
1,711.02
0.8%
76.7%
-2.8%
-57.6
4.7
-2.1%
ECCU
637
14,376.40
2.6%
76.0%
-0.1%
-46.7
5.4
-1.8%
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