Download Michael Parkinson

Policy for Cities in the Age of Austerity:
Why Invest Beyond the Capitals?
SGPTDE Project
Professor Michael Parkinson CBE
ESPON Seminar, Krakow 2011
Answer 3 Questions
1. WHO ARE WE?
2. WHAT POLICY QUESTIONS TRYING
ANSWER HOW?
3. WHAT EMERGING POLICY STORY?
1. Who Are We?
Partners
• EIUA
• MRI Budapest
• University of Tampere
Advisers
• University College London
• University of Paris
2. What Policy Questions Trying Answer ?
•Contribution capital & secondary cities national, EU performance
• Which secondaries punching weight nationally & Europe, how
and why?
• Who doing what to help?
• What works policy?
• What impact & implications crisis?
• Who does what policies better, differently in future?
And How?
• Research & policy literature – performance, policies, prospects
• Quantitative data 124 secondaries, 31 capitals
• Interviews - European, national policy makers, private sector
• E-questionnaire
• 9 case studies – Tampere, Cork, Leeds, Lyon, Turin, Munich,
Barcelona, Katowice, Timisoara
3. What Emerging Policy Story ?
• Contribution capital & secondary national economies varies
• Historical, economic, institutional reasons capital dominate
national economy even more in east than west
• Capitals dominate - but size gap varies & some cases falling
• Many secondaries growing contribution national prosperity
• Some secondaries outperform capital
3. What Emerging Policy Story ?
Gap capitals & secondaries big
Few Exceptions - Top Secondary Outperforms Capital:
Germany, Austria, Italy, Belgium, Ireland
GDP per capita PPS, 2007
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
National
Secondary City
Top Secondary Lags Capital by 5-20%:
Spain, UK, Netherlands, France
GDP per capita PPS, 2007
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
National
Secondary City
Top Secondary Lags Capital by 20-30%:
Denmark, Poland, Sweden, Finland, Portugal
GDP per capita PPS, 2007
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
National
Secondary City
Top Secondary Lags Capital by 30-45%:
Hungary, Romania, Lithuania, Greece, Czech Republic, Slovenia, Croatia
GDP per capita PPS, 2007
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
National
Secondary City
Top Secondary Lags Capital by 50-65%:
Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Slovakia
GDP per capita PPS, 2007
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
National
Secondary City
3. What Emerging Policy Story ?
Territory matters
3. What Emerging Policy Story ?
Governance matters
Productivity Capitals and Secondaries 2007
City
110,000
Unitary
centralised
former
socialist
100,000
Unitary
centralised
former
socialist
Unitary
Capital
Country
Case study
Unitary
Unitary
Unitary
Unitary
Unitary
regionalised regionalised Decentralised
Federal Nordic
Federal
Unitary
Federal Unitary Unitary Unitary
Decentralised
Nordic Luxembourg
Cork
Dublin
Paris
London
80,000
Bilbao
70,000
Rome Salzburg
Copenhagen
Madrid
Bratislava
Budapest
Bucharest
50,000
40,000
Vilnius Poznan
Zagreb
Prague
Klaipeda
Llubljana
Odense
Valletta Nicosia
Thessalonica
Split Maribor
Tallinn
Katowice-Zory
Riga
Lisbon
Gyor Porto
Kosice
Ostrava
Turin
Barcelona
90,000
Randstad South
Randstad North
80,000
Stockholm Helsinki
Lyon
Vienna
Edinburgh
Milan
Athens
Brussels
70,000
Turku
Gothenburg
Tampere
60,000
Bradford-Leeds
Berlin
50,000
40,000
Cluj-Napoca
Sofia
30,000
Antwerp
Munich
Warsaw
100,000
Decentralised
Nordic
90,000
60,000
110,000
Timisoara
Tartu
30,000
Varna
20,000
10,000
Daugavpils
20,000
10,000
3. What Emerging Policy Story ?
Places can improve
Capitals and Secondaries Total GDP - % Change 2000-7
National
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
-
-2
Unitary
regionalised
Federal
Unitary
Unitary Decentralised
Nordic
Unitary
Federal
Capital
City
Case study
Unitary
Unitary
Unitary
Unitary
regionalised
Unitary
Unitary
Unitary
Decentralised
Unitary
centralised
Decentralised
Nordic
centralised
Nordic
former
former
socialist
socialist
Unitary Unitary
Unitary
centralised Unitary centralised
former Decentralised former
socialist
socialist Nordic
Unitary
centralised
former
socialist
3. What Emerging Policy Story ?
But crisis is hurting
Change Unemployment Rates % NUTS 2 2007-10
Source: Bubbico & Dijkstra, 2011
3. What Emerging Policy Story?
Significant risk
3. What Emerging Policy Story ?
RISK:
• Economic, fiscal crises undermine achievements secondaries
• Competition public & private sector investment widen gaps
within secondaries
• Competition widen gap between secondaries & capitals
• Increased inequality across Europe & failure hit EU 2020 targets
3. What Emerging Policy Story?
Policy matters
3. What Emerging Policy Story ?
• Countries typically concentrate attention, resources capitals at expense
secondaries
• Little explicit policy debate relationship. Most focus cohesion
• But some beginning focus economic performance secondary
• Some have national policies promote urban competiveness innovation, diversity, skills, connectivity, place quality, governance.
• Some policies made difference & helped secondaries grow
• Cities seem do better countries less administrative centralisation &
economic concentration, where cities more powers, resources
• Some cities helped their national economy perform better
3. What Emerging Policy Story ?
Policy implications and prospects:
• Relationship capital secondary not zero sum but win-win
• Diseconomies scale suggest governments encourage development
secondary cities complement capital
• Secondaries could absorb growth when costs growth start outweigh
benefits to capital
• Little demand artificially limit capitals contribution national prosperity
• Trick increase national economic pie - encouraging secondaries not kill
golden goose capital
3. What Emerging Policy Story ?
Policy implications & prospects – investment age austerity:
• Number secondaries country sustain depends size, level development
• Smaller countries and currently East less scope develop secondary cities
complement capital
• But policy aim should still be more high performing secondaries
• Economic governance at scale crucial
• Government territorial investment decisions - leading or lagging, bigger or
smaller, capital or secondary - must be more explicit
• Deconcentration, decentralisation, policy focus secondaries can help
• EU future policy needs greater focus territory - economic place making