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Research and services for healthy megacities in the 21st Century 1| Dr. Carlos Dora, Coordinator, Public Health and Environment World Health Organization Public health and environment This presentation • Environmental causes for large burden of Non Commnicable Diseases (NCDs) • Urban policies that improve health and prevent disease • Air pollution a cause and an indicator • Knowledge gaps – emerging questions • Opportunities and synergies for meteorology and health 2| Public health and environment Enormous burden of NCDs 2 in 3 deaths are from NCDs Cardiovascular disease, mainly heart disease, stroke Cancer Chronic respiratory diseases Diabetes Injuries Costs: Trillions of U$ dollars 3| Public health and environment One third of urban populations live in slums 4| Public health and environment Vulnerable (urban, older) populations are growing rapidly 5| Public health and environment Extreme heat is associated with increased mortality 6| Public health and environment For WHO as the Global Public Health Organization the question are: •What are the main diseases and their risk factors? •What are the route causes these risk factors? •What are the best options to address them, can we do about it? •How do we best work with others to address the above risks? 7| Public health and environment Environmental factors already cause over 25% of global burden of disease – world's least resilient populations most affected Share of burden of disease Diarrhoea Respiratory infections Malaria Perinatal conditions Communicable Diseases Childhood cluster HIV/AIDS Other unintentional injuries (excl. road traffic) Cardiovascular diseases (IHD, CVD etc) Chronic respiratory diseases (COPD, asthma etc) Road traffic injuries Noncommunicable Diseases & Injuries Cancers Lead-caused MMR 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% Environmental Fraction Source: WHO Burden of Disease statistics 8| Public health and environment 5% 6% Total 7% 8% 9% 10% Health in a 'Green Economy' • • • • 9| Focus on policies to mitigate climate change proposed by IPCC Identify the health co-benefits &risks Policies/investments most beneficial to health and equity Constructive critique of IPCC proposed priorities for action Public health and environment Health co-benefits from green and climate friendly policies – Transport Findings: 10 | • We are missing major health and mitigation co-benefit from cycling/walking/transit & compact urban land use. • IPCC (and current transport investments) emphasize improved vehicle fuels and engines; these may even increase health risks from injuries, physical inactivity and local air pollution (diesel) Public health and environment Health co-benefits from climate friendly policies – Household Energy Findings – IPCC (and Energy sector investments) lack emphasis on household energy solutions 11 | • Cleaner biomass/biogas stoves can avert 2 million deaths annually from childhood pneumonia, COPD and lung cancers, and reduce climatechanging Black Carbon emissions • Solar PV can replace kerosene for household electricity – averting injuries, respiratory conditions and possibly TB Public health and environment Health co-benefits to health from green and climate-friendly policies – Housing IPCC overlooks slum housing /non technological options 12 | • More climate friendly housing, and better siting/planning can: reduce deaths and illness from extreme heat/cold exposures & urban heat island effect; • Improved natural ventilation and screening measures can protect health from: vector borne and respiratory diseases/TB; asthmas and allergies. Public health and environment Implications of Health in a Green Economy 1. Health co-benefits to be included in next set of IPCC recommendations/priority setting 2. Increase chances of support from Climate Finance 3. Make health part of economic valuation climate strategies and investments 4. Widen the use of health impact assessment (HIA) to identify policies with best health performance 5. Facilitate that health is used as part of monitoring-reportingverification of sector policies and their health impacts 13 | Public health and environment Health in a green economy: 'Green' urban transport can reduce chronic disease, injuries and improve health equity Transport reliant on private vehicles increases congestion, pollution, and physical inactivity. Safe walking/cycling and rapid transit networks can reduce injury, cardiovascular disease & support healthy physical activity. Cycling to work reduced premature mortality by 30% among commuter groups in Shanghai & Copenhagen. Rapid transit/NMT improves access to schools, jobs & services for poor, children, women, elderly & disabled, improving equity. 14 | Public health and environment Evidence: Health outcomes directly linked to type of urban infrastructure investment Infrastructure for different travel modes (including presence and proximity of infrastructure) More infrastructure facilitating walking (including general assessments of “walkability” of neighbourhoods as well as presence of specific features, e.g. pavements) Increased walking, cycling or active 94,133,138,144,146,147,154,175,223–229 transport Increased physical 104,154,155,160,176,184,223,228,230–239 activity Reduced BMI or 111,118,119,165,224,234,238–240 obesity 234 Reduced air pollution-related effects 224 Improved reported health status 222,224 Reductions in specific health problems 47 Lower mortality / higher life expectancy More infrastructure facilitating cycling Increased walking, cycling or active 94,136–139,141,144,171,175,241–243 transport Increased physical 27,104,157,159,161,184,244 activity Increased walking, cycling or active 44,133,140,146 transport More infrastructure facilitating public transport use 15 | Less walking, cycling or active transport Review of studies on infrastructure investment, physical activity and health – 89,94,150,152,179,245 103,140,157,159,182 Increased physical activity 113,117 Reduced BMI or obesity 246 Reduced air pollution-related effects Less infrastructure facilitating car travel (including parking, motorways) 179 Less active transport Increased walking, cycling or active 245,247 transport 73 Reduced BMI or obesity Public health and environment WHO/Health in Green Economy (forthcoming) Cost benefit analyses: WHO tool for estimating health economic gains from cycling Download the guidance document, HEAT for cycling and user guide from Public health and environment 16 | www.euro.who.int/transport/policy/20070503_1 2: Green housing and health Little focus on energy-efficient heating, cooling and natural ventilation can reduce strokes and respiratory illness as well as TB and vector-borne diseases; Little focus on slums /poor housing - where needs are greatest/benefits could be multiplied Solar hot water heating - India 17 | Public health and environment Slum in Mexico City Green energy and health Light a billion lives - India Solar hot water heating is an fast-growing, popular technology in Turkey, China, South Africa, Middle East, etc. China is mass marketing next-generation solar PV & passive. Below passive solar "combi" hot water space heating raised night-time winter temperatures from 6-8º C lows in village near Beijing 18 | Public health and environment But these innovations lack global policy support and financing for scale-up Cape Town, South Africa's Kuyasa neighborhood slum upgrade: First to be financed by UN Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Solar hot water systems, sewage and insulation (below) will help reduce heat-related, respiratory and waterborne diseases. BUT of 4500 CDM projects only 14 were for housing (2009) CDM requirements remain too complex for most low-income communities; don't consider "whole house" approaches; and don't consider health. 19 | Public health and environment Making the link between health and sustainable development. Enabling health is considered in the planning and implementation 20 | Public health and environment Air pollution a link for environment, health and development PM<10 – Coarse PM <2.5 – Fine PM<1 – Ultrafine Medgadget .com Particles smaller than 2.5 micrometers are able to penetrate through the lungs and effect the body more systematically leading to cardiovascular disease and can lead to adverse pregnancy outcomes. 21 | Public health and environment Burden of disease from Air Pollution – higher than previous WHO estimates • Outdoor air pollution → 3.3 million deaths/yr – large proportion urban exposures • Indoor air pollution → 3,5 million deaths/yr – mostly from inefficient biomass/coal cookstoves 22 | (Lim S et al, Lancet, 2012) Public health and environment Air Pollution is responsible for a very large proportion of major NCDs Indoor Air Pollution ~50% of all pneumonia deaths among children under 5 ~30% of all COPD (Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) deaths ~18% of disease & deaths from ischaemic heart disease Outdoor Air pollution ~22 % of disease & deaths from ischaemic heart disease ~15 % of deaths from pneumonia in children under 5 ~5% of COPD deaths – (from ambient ozone pollution) Air pollution also is a factor in: Cancers, Asthma (ozone), Cataracts, Adverse pregnancy outcomes, TB 23 | (WHO, 2009/Lim, Lancet, 2012) Public health and environment “Review of evidence on health aspects of air pollution - REVIHAAP”, WHO 2013 selected conclusions on PM (A1) Confirm and strengthen results form the 2005 WHO Guidelines on Air Quality and Health. –New studies on short- and long-term effects; –Long-term exposures to PM2.5 are a cause of cardiovascular mortality and morbidity; –More insight on physiological effects and plausible biological mechanisms linking short- and long-term PM2.5 exposure with mortality and morbidity; –Studies linking long-term exposure to PM2.5 to several new health outcomes (e.g. atherosclerosis, adverse birth outcomes, childhood respiratory disease). 24 | Public health and environment LAQN Seminar, London, 21 June 2013 24 Meta-analysis of the association between long-term exposure to PM2.5 and cardiovascular mortality Study Pub. year RR (95%CI) % per 10 µg/m3 weight 2002 2007 Hoek et al, EnvHealth 2013 25 2008 2011 2011 2011 2012 2013 2012 2011 25 | Public health and environment 1.001.15 2.00 LAQN Seminar, London, 21 June 2013 Mortality and long-term exposure to PM2.5 Results of a cohort study in Rome (1.3 million adults followed from 2001 to 2010) Cesaroni et al. EHP 2013 PM2.5: 3-dimensional Eulerian model (1x1 km) c= % increase in risk per 10 µg/m3 c=4% AQG 26 | c=6% c=10 % EU LV Public health and environment LAQN Seminar, London, 21 June 2013 26 % change in artery wall thickness Carotid artery wall thickness (=risk of atherosclerosis) and long-term PM2.5 exposure AQG Home outdoor PM2.5 (µg/m3) EU LV Heinz Nixdorf RECALL study, Ruhr region, Germany 27 | Public health and environment LAQN Seminar, London, 21 June 2013 27 2010 Bauer et al, JACC Long term O3 exposure and risk of death due to respiratory causes ACS cohort of 448 thousand adults followed for 18 years RR per 10 ppb = 1.040 (95% CI 1.010 - 1.067) (2-pollutant model with O3 and PM2.5) 28 | Public health and environment LAQN Seminar, London, 21 June 2013 28 Jerrett et al, NEJM 2009 Short-term exposure to ozone, mortality and hospital admissions European cities in the APHENA study Per cent increase in deaths/admissions (95% CI) per 10 µg/m3 increment in daily maximum 1-hour ozone concentrations Single pollutant Adjusted for PM10 Outcome All-cause mortality a 0.18 (0.07–0.30) 0.21 (0.10–0.31) Cardiovascular mortality: 75 years and older a Cardiovascular mortality: younger than 75 years a 0.22 (0.00–0.45) 0.21 (-0.01–0.43) 0.35 (0.12–0.58) 0.36 (0.10–0.62) Respiratory mortality b 0.19 (-0.06–0.45) 0.21 (-0.08–0.50) Cardiac admissions: older than 65 years a -0.10 (-0.46–0.27) 0.64 (0.36–0.91) Respiratory admissions: older than 65 years b 0.19 (-0.28–0.67) 0.32 (0.05–0.60) a lag 29 | 0-1 results; b lag 1 results Public health and environment LAQN Seminar, London, 21 June 2013 Katsouyanni et al 2009 29 REVIHAAP: Indoor, occupational and commuting exposures vary more than exposure to OAP •In the absence of tobacco smoke: Commuting can increase exposures to PM, NO2, CO and benzene, and is a major contributor to the exposure to UFP, BC and metals (Fe, Ni and Cu in the underground); Ambient air dominates population exposures to NO2 (no gas appliances), PM2.5, BC, O3, CO and SO2 (also BaP, As, Cd, Ni and Pb); The high end of the individual exposures to PM10-2.5 and naphthalene originate from indoor sources and commuting; Solid fuel fired indoor fireplaces and stoves, where used in suboptimal conditions, dominate the high end of the exposures to PM2.5, BC, UFP, CO, benzene and BaP of the affected individuals. 30 | Public health and environment LAQN Seminar, London, 21 June 2013 30 Knwoledge gaps 1. Source contributions to Air Pollution-related diseases: % of health burden from power generation, home energy & transport in different cities and regions 2. Evidence on the effectiveness of interventions: Energyefficient homes, cookstoves, transport and power generation not only reduce pollution/climate impacts, they generate multiple other health & equity co-benefits 3. Improved global tracking of air pollution health impacts: for better data on developing cities and rural as well as urban areas 31 | Public health and environment Knowledge Gap 1 Evidence about main sources of pollution We need a stronger evidence base on sector air pollution contributions to: •Identify AP health burden from transport, housing, power, etc. •Build the case for preventive actions “upstream” in key sectors that pollute… •The following slides present examples of some of the evidence we have… as well as the types of questions we urgently need to explore. 32 | Public health and environment Unsustainable transport - an under-rated factor? Urban case studies % of ambient PM2.5 from vehicle exhaust and road dust* Kolkata 24‐69% ‐ vehicle exhaust 4‐40% ‐ road dust Delhi 19‐23% ‐ vehicle exhaust 4‐40% ‐ road dust Mumbai 22‐28% ‐ vehicle exhaust 16‐38% ‐ road dust Dhaka 45‐50% ‐ vehicle exhaust Shanghai 12‐17% ‐ vehicle exhaust 2‐3% ‐ road dust 28‐24% ‐ vehicle exhaust 25‐50% ‐ primary traffic emissions only Sao Paulo European urban average Beijing 13% ‐ vehicle exhaust 18.7% road dust (emissions inventory) Source: (WHO, 2009) HELI Review of source apportionment data * Note: Ranges indicate seasonal variations - higher concentrations in dry season 33 | Public health and environment 2 million deaths annually are from urban air pollution. What % of these deaths in major cities are due to transportpollution? How does urban sprawl exacerbate air pollution? Sprawl leads to greater energy consumption /per capita and thus more air pollution/GHGs. But sprawl may affect air pollution exposures & health differently in urban/suburban neighbourhoods, and by region Source. WHO, 2012/International Association of Public Transport , 2005 34 | Public health and environment How much does home coal/biomass burning add to outdoor air pollution in poor cities? % Regional Population Using Solid Fuels WHO Air Quality Guideline Value 35 | Public health and environment Where are power plants a major urban AQ factor ? Shanghai 2001 (PM2.5) Autumn Watered Cyclone Dust Dust 3% 7% Heavy Oil 6% Marine 24% Soils 0% Power Plants 28% Vehicle Exhaust 17% •Road Dust •2% •Coking •Smelter •Cement •2% •6% •5% Spring Marine 21% Watered Dust Cyclone Dust 4% 8% Heavy Oil 5% Winter •Marine •28% •Watered •Dust •Cyclone •4% •Dust •10% •Heavy Oil •4% Soils 0% Vehicle Exhaust 16% Road Dust •Coking •Smelter •Cement 2% •6% •1% •5% Summer Watered Dust 3% Cyclone Dust 9% Marine 31% Heavy Oil 6% Soils 1% Power Plants 23% Vehicle Exhaust 19% Road Dust 3% Coking 1% Smelter 8% Cement 7% Power Plants 24% Power Plants 15% Soils 2% Vehicle Exhaust Road Dust Coking 12% 3% 2% Smelter 9% Cement 8% Guttikunda - SAES, Shanghai, 2004 36 | Public health and environment Knowledge Gap 2 Effective interventions - multiple gains WHO sees a need for evidence/guidance to policy-makers : about policies that reduce air pollution and enhance other aspects of health, e.g. • Healthier homes • Healthier transport • Healthy cities • Greater access to clean energy for the poor • More resilience in emergencies (e.g. health facilities) 37 | Public health and environment Energy-efficient homes reduce air pollution & other housing risks such as... Housing risks • • • • • • • 38 | Indoor/outdoor air pollution Damp, mould & allergens Poor indoor ventilation Planning, transport access Urban waste, sanitation & water Heat Island Storms/flooding Public health and environment Health impacts • • • • • • • Chronic/acute respiratory disease Allergies, respiratory disease Respiratory disease Physical inactivity, NCDs, traffic injuries Water and sanitation-borne disease Strokes Injuries/poverty Innovative power generation not only reduces air pollution, it improves…. • Access to clean energy/renewables for the poor • Resilience in emergencies, including for health facilities • Grid efficiencies (e.g. through CHP, distributed energy generation reduce pollution/unit of heat and power • Healthy housing synergies from design efficiencies+ renewables 39 | Public health and environment Solar lanterns, India “Light a Billion Lives” Solar “suitcase” in primary health facility- Nigeria Cogeneration of Heat and Power (CHP), New York Presbyterian Hospital Sustainable transport not only reduces air pollution, but also… • • • Increases physical activity Reduces traffic injury Frees urban road/parking for green spaces • Facilitates more equitable access to mobility • Eases movements of elderly, children, disabled, women • Promotes social cohesion in local communities 40 | Public health and environment Evidence: health & carbon efficiencies linked to sustainable urban modal split Factor Studies finding improved outcomes Studies finding worse outcomes Use of different travel modes More active transport (walking, cycling) 88,185–197 Increased physical activity 35,109,118,148,188,199–205 Reduced BMI or obesity 23 More use of public transport Reduced air pollution-related effects Improved quality of life or reported health 167,183,206 status 188,206 Reductions in specific health problems Lower mortality / higher life 36,37,207 expectancy Increased walking, cycling or active 208 transport 185,209,210 Increased physical activity 148,203,212 Reduced BMI or obesity 70,213 Reduced air pollution-related effects Lower car use, car ownership and traffic volumes Increased walking, cycling or active 94,129,132,134,141–143,149,150,152,178,179,214– transport 217 160,181,191,218 Increased physical activity 73,109,148,164,218–221 Reduced BMI or obesity 166 Improved reported health status 222 Reductions in specific health problems 41 | Public health and environment Increased stress and 198 psychological distress Increased road traffic 23 injury Increased air pollution185 related effects Increased risk of 211 tuberculosis Review of studies on urban travel mode, physical activity and health – WHO/Health in Green Economy (forthcoming) Climate co-benefits: One-third of Global CO2 emissions from vehicles & home energy Road transport & home energy also major sources of short-lived climate pollutants (e.g. black carbon, other particulate matter) that damage health 42 | Public health and environment Climate impacts by Sector in 2020: Radiative Forcing (Unger, 2010) Household biomass/transport have greatest potential for short-term pollutant reductions 43 | Public health and environment Knowledge Gap 3 Improved global tracking of air pollution exposures and health impacts WHO sees a need for a coherent air quality & health platform: •Air pollution monitoring is limited & fragmented •New methods combining ground-level monitoring, satellite tracking, remote sensing & chemical transport models can fill gaps could improve estimates •Need to link with interventions/sources of air pollution to identify how policy change /trends in sector policies affect air pollution and health 44 | Public health and environment Urban Air Quality Data (WHO) 1500 cities, but sparse coverage for Africa, Latin America, Middle East – no coverage in rural areas 45 | Public health and environment Household air pollution data base (WHO) • Data from over 900 household surveys • Information on fuels and technologies used for cooking, and now also for heating and lighting • Base for estimates of IAP and related mortality 46 | Public health (Lim S etand al,environment Lancet, 2012) Preventing disease – addressing their route causes in the environment and in development 47 | Public health and environment Health indicators for Post-2015 Sustainable Development WHO related health to SD policies, through the •Wider use of HIA, • Defining health-relevant indicators for sustainable development goals (EB 136/30) •Convened consultation on health indicators for Rio + 20 themes/disseminated through civil society/government partners at the conference 48 | Public health and environment Example 1: Urban Health indicators of Sustainable Development WHO/Hans Everts • Healthy, efficient transport ↔ as measured by % travel by transit/walking & cycling + mortality rates for pedestrians/cyclists • Deaths attributed to urban air pollution • Slum housing with access to water/sanitation and energy & improved climate resilience ↔ sustainable urban development 49 | Public health and environment Example 2: Energy and Health indicators (SE4All initiative) WHO/Hans Everts • % of health care facilities with access to clean/sustainable energy • % of households with access to clean cookstoves and/or clean fuels. • Deaths and disease attributed to indoor and outdoor air pollution (above WHO Air Quality guidelines) 50 | Public health and environment Example3: Agriculture & Nutrition indicators of Sustainable Development WHO/Hans Everts • % of childhood stunting ↔ unsustainable agro policies & practices with undernutrition • Obesity prevalence ↔ GHG-intensive fast & processed foods • % of total daily energy intake from saturated fats ↔ overconsumption of GHG-intensive red meat 51 | Public health and environment Where should we go next? Global cooperation to identify: 1. Sector strategies and how they affect health : e.g. health burden related to power generation, home energy & transport in different cities and regions 2. Evidence on the effectiveness of interventions: Sector interventions that reduce disease and climate change – e.g. building energy efficiencies (e.g. cookstoves), sustainable transport and innovative power generation/delivery 3. Improved global tracking of sector policies, risks to health and health impacts, as they relate to interventions: for better information on trends and how they can be influenced by policy interventions. 52 | Public health and environment