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Statistics for Business and Economics Chapter 2 Describing Data: Numerical Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 2-1 2.1 Measures of Central Tendency Overview Central Tendency Mean Median Mode Midpoint of ranked values Most frequently observed value n x= ∑x i i=1 n Arithmetic average Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 2-2 Arithmetic Mean n The arithmetic mean (mean) is the most common measure of central tendency n For a population of N values: N ∑x i x1 + x 2 + ! + x N µ= = N N i=1 Population values Population size n For a sample of size n: n x= ∑x i=1 n i x1 + x 2 + ! + x n = n Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Observed values Sample size Ch. 2-3 Arithmetic Mean (continued) n n n The most common measure of central tendency Mean = sum of values divided by the number of values Affected by extreme values (outliers) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Mean = 3 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 15 = =3 5 5 Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Mean = 4 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 10 20 = =4 5 5 Ch. 2-4 Median n In an ordered list, the median is the “middle” number (50% above, 50% below) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Median = 3 Median = 3 n Not affected by extreme values Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 2-5 Finding the Median n The location of the median: n +1 Median position = position in the ordered data 2 n n n If the number of values is odd, the median is the middle number If the number of values is even, the median is the average of the two middle numbers n +1 Note that is not the value of the median, only the 2 position of the median in the ranked data Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 2-6 Mode n n n n n n A measure of central tendency Value that occurs most often Not affected by extreme values Used for either numerical or categorical data There may may be no mode There may be several modes 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Mode = 9 Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 No Mode Ch. 2-7 Review Example n Five houses on a hill by the beach $2,000 K House Prices: $2,000,000 500,000 300,000 100,000 100,000 $500 K $300 K $100 K $100 K Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 2-8 Review Example: Summary Statistics House Prices: $2,000,000 500,000 300,000 100,000 100,000 n n Sum 3,000,000 n Mean: ($3,000,000/5) = $600,000 Median: middle value of ranked data = $300,000 Mode: most frequent value = $100,000 Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 2-9 Which measure of location is the “best”? n n Mean is generally used, unless extreme values (outliers) exist . . . Then median is often used, since the median is not sensitive to extreme values. n Example: Median home prices may be reported for a region – less sensitive to outliers Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 2-10 Shape of a Distribution n Describes how data are distributed n Measures of shape n Symmetric or skewed Left-Skewed Symmetric Right-Skewed Mean < Median Mean = Median Median < Mean Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 2-11 Geometric Mean n Geometric mean 1/n x g = (x1 × x 2 × !× x n ) = (x1 × x 2 × !× x n ) n n Geometric mean rate of return 1/n rg = (x1 × x 2 × ... × xn ) − 1 Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 2-12 Example Initial Investment: $100 After 5 years: $125 Question: the average annual rate of returns? • • • 25 % divided by 5 years = 5%? This is Wrong! ``Compound Interest’’ over 5 years $100 x (1+0.05)^5 = $127.63 > $125 after 5 years Answer: $100 x (1+r)^5 = $125 è Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 2-13 2.2 Measures of Variability Variation Range n Interquartile Range Variance Standard Deviation Coefficient of Variation Measures of variation give information on the spread or variability of the data values. Same center, different variation Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 2-14 Range n n Simplest measure of variation Difference between the largest and the smallest observations: Range = Xlargest – Xsmallest Example: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Range = 14 - 1 = 13 Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 2-15 Disadvantages of the Range n Ignores the way in which data are distributed 7 8 9 10 11 12 Range = 12 - 7 = 5 n 7 8 9 10 11 12 Range = 12 - 7 = 5 Sensitive to outliers 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,3,3,3,3,4,5 Range = 5 - 1 = 4 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,3,3,3,3,4,120 Range = 120 - 1 = 119 Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 2-16 Interquartile Range Example: X minimum Q1 25% 12 Median (Q2) 25% 30 25% 45 X Q3 maximum 25% 57 70 Interquartile range = 57 – 30 = 27 Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 2-17 STATA Example Interquartile Rage by Low vs. High HW Group Low HW Group 60 20 40 Final Grade 80 100 High HW Group Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 2-18 Population Variance n Average of squared deviations of values from the mean n N Population variance: 2 σ = Where 2 ∑ (x − µ) i i=1 N µ = population mean N = population size xi = ith value of the variable x Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 2-19 Sample Variance n Average (approximately) of squared deviations of values from the mean n n Sample variance: 2 s = Where ∑ (x − x) 2 i i=1 n -1 X = arithmetic mean n = sample size Xi = ith value of the variable X Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 2-20 Population Standard Deviation n n n Most commonly used measure of variation Shows variation about the mean Has the same units as the original data n Population standard deviation: N 2 ∑ (x − µ) i σ= i=1 Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall N Ch. 2-21 Sample Standard Deviation n n n Most commonly used measure of variation Shows variation about the mean Has the same units as the original data n n Sample standard deviation: ∑ (x − x) 2 i S= Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall i=1 n -1 Ch. 2-22 Calculation Example: Sample Standard Deviation Sample Data (xi) : 10 12 14 15 n=8 2 s = = 18 18 24 Mean = x = 16 2 2 (10 − X ) + (12 − x) + (14 − x) + ! + (24 − x) 2 n −1 2 = 17 2 2 (10 − 16) + (12 − 16) + (14 − 16) + ! + (24 − 16) 2 8 −1 126 7 = 4.2426 Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall A measure of the “average” scatter around the mean Ch. 2-23 Measuring variation Small standard deviation Large standard deviation Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 2-24 Comparing Standard Deviations Data A 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Mean = 15.5 s = 3.338 20 21 Mean = 15.5 s = 0.926 20 21 Mean = 15.5 s = 4.570 Data B 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Data C 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 18 19 Ch. 2-25 Advantages of Variance and Standard Deviation n n Each value in the data set is used in the calculation Values far from the mean are given extra weight (because deviations from the mean are squared) Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 2-26 Coefficient of Variation n Measures relative variation n Always in percentage (%) n Shows variation relative to mean n Can be used to compare two or more sets of data measured in different units ⎛ s ⎞ ⎟ CV = ⎜ ⎜ x ⎟ ⋅ 100% ⎝ ⎠ Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 2-27 Comparing Coefficient of Variation n n Stock A: n Average price last year = $50 n Standard deviation = $5 ⎛ s ⎞ $5 CVA = ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ ⋅ 100% = ⋅ 100% = 10% $50 ⎝ x ⎠ Stock B: n n Average price last year = $100 Standard deviation = $5 ⎛ s ⎞ $5 CVB = ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ ⋅ 100% = ⋅ 100% = 5% $100 ⎝ x ⎠ Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Both stocks have the same standard deviation, but stock B is less variable relative to its price Ch. 2-28 The Empirical Rule n n If the data distribution is approximated by normal distribution, then the interval: µ ± 1σ contains about 68% of the values in the population or the sample 68% µ µ ± 1σ Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 2-29 The Empirical Rule n n µ ± 2σ contains about 95% of the values in the population or the sample µ ± 3σ contains almost all (about 99.7%) of the values in the population or the sample 95% 99.7% µ ± 2σ µ ± 3σ Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 2-30 2.3 n Weighted Mean The weighted mean of a set of data is n x = ∑ wi x i = w1x1 + w2 x 2 +!+ wn x n i=1 n Where wi is the weight of the ith observation and n ∑w i =1 Use when data is already grouped into n classes, with wi values in the ith class Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 2-31 2.3 Example n Consider a student with the scores of assignment (x1), midterm (x2), and final exam (x3) given by x1 = 90, x2 = 90, and x3 = 46. The weights: w1 = 0.1, w2 =0.3, and w3 = 0.6. n The final grade for this student is n n 3 ∑w x i i = 0.1× 90+0.3× 90+0.6 × 46=63.6 i=1 Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 2-32 2.4 The Sample Covariance n n The covariance measures the strength of the linear relationship between two variables The population covariance: N ∑ (x − µ i Cov (x , y) = σ xy = n x )(yi − µ y ) i=1 N The sample covariance: n ∑ (x − x)(y − y) i Cov (x , y) = s xy = n n n i i=1 n −1 Only concerned with the strength of the relationship No causal effect is implied Depends on the unit of measurement Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 2-33 Interpreting Covariance n Covariance between two variables: Cov(x,y) > 0 x and y tend to move in the same direction Cov(x,y) < 0 x and y tend to move in opposite directions Cov(x,y) = 0 x and y are independent Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 2-34 Coefficient of Correlation n n Measures the relative strength of the linear relationship between two variables Population correlation coefficient: Cov (x , y) ρ= σXσY n Sample correlation coefficient: Cov (x , y) r= sX sY Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 2-35 Features of Correlation Coefficient, r n Unit free n Ranges between –1 and 1 n n n The closer to –1, the stronger the negative linear relationship The closer to 1, the stronger the positive linear relationship The closer to 0, the weaker any positive linear relationship Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 2-36 Scatter Plots of Data with Various Correlation Coefficients Y Y r = -1 X Y Y r = -.6 X Y Y r = +1 X Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall r=0 X r = +.3 X r=0 X Ch. 2-37 Example: HW and Final Grade HW and Final Grade r = .0.499 n 40 There is a relatively strong positive linear relationship between HW scores and Final Grades 20 n Final Grade 60 80 n 100 Correlation = 0.499 0 2 4 6 8 10 Homework Grade Fitted values Students who scored high on HW assignment tended to have high final grades Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Ch. 2-38