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The Challenges Brought By The Shortage of Oil And Gas In China And Their Countermeasures Pang Xiongqi, Meng Qingyang Zhang Jun, Natori Mariko China University of Petroleum in Beijing Key Laboratory For Hydrocarbon Accumulation Mechanism, Ministry of Education, PRC Email:[email protected] Tele: 86-010-89733346 Fax: 86-010-89733423 Mobile: 13701296729 Contents I. Forward II. The Economy Development of China Needs a Lot of Oil and Gas Resources III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production in China and their Prediction IV. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Shortage in China and Their Prediction V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and Gas in China and Their Countermeasures Ⅵ. Conclusions 1. Brief Introduction of China Lisbon, Portugal ★ Beijing, China ★ Location: Northern Hemisphere, Asia Country land area: 9.6 million km2 Population: About 1.3 Billion Foundation: in 1949, PRC Nationalities: 56 (Mainly Han Nationality) Open door policy: Since 1978 I. Forward 2. Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Exploration in China ③ ② Legends ① ① East area ② Middle area ③ West area ④ South China sea area Oil and Gas Resources are Distributed in Four Areas: East, Middle, West and South China Sea Brief Introduction of Oil and Gas Exploration in China (until the end of 2003) : Total Amount: Oil= 101 billion tones; Proved: Oil= 23.42 billion tones;Gas= 3.8695 trillion m3 Gas= 42 trillion m3 Proved Recoverable: Oil= 6.513 billion tones;Gas= 2.4646 trillion m3 Left Recoverable: Oil= 2.381 billion tones;Gas=2.0894 trillion m3 I. Forward 3. Brief Introduction to China’s Shortage of Oil 490 Oil Production Oil Consumption 420 360 310 260 222 162 170 190 200 220 240 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Unit: million tones Comparison between Oil Production and Demand in China (From China National Statistics Bureau, 2004) I. Forward 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 3. Brief Introduction to China’s Shortage of Gas 3400 Gas Production 产量 2700 Gas Consumption 需求量 1800 1400 1000 265 265 2000年 500 720 1200 1200 1200 1000 420 2005年 2010年 2015年 2020年 2025年 2030年 Unit: hundred million cubic meters Comparison between Gas Production and Demand in China (From China National Statistics Bureau, 2004) Contents I. Forward II. The Economy Development of China Needs a Lot of Oil and Gas Resources III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production in China and their Prediction IV. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Shortage in China and Their Prediction V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and Gas in China and Their Countermeasures Ⅵ. Conclusions II. The Economy and Society Development of China Needs a Lot of Oil and Gas Resources GDP Increase Rate(%) 1. The fast growth of economy in China consumes a lot of oil and gas resources The GDP increases very fast in recent 20 years in China and the average increase rate can reach 9% per year 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Brief introduction to economy growth in recent 20 years in China (From China National Statistics Bureau, 2004) II. The Economy and Society Development of China Needs a Lot of Oil and Gas Resources 1. The fast growth of economy in China consumes a lot of oil and gas resources /economy increase rate oil consumption increase rate The increase of demand on oil and gas per year will reach 0.65% with 1% increase of China’s GDP. 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 The relation between oil consumption increase and yearly economy increase in China (From China National Statistics Bureau, 2004) II. The Economy and Society Development of China Needs a Lot of Oil and Gas Resources 1. The fast growth of economy in China consumes a lot of oil and gas resources The increase rate of yearly oil consumption in recent 10 years is five times higher than that of 10 years before . The oil consumption increase curve with time in China II. The Economy and Society Development of China Needs a Lot of Oil and Gas Resources 1. The fast growth of economy in China consumes a lot of oil and gas resources 900 U.K China Japan U.S.A Yearly Oil consumption of China has reached 3 hundred million tones and just next to the U.S.A 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 Yearly gas consumption rate of China is increasing fast but relatively still little comparing with other developed countries Gas consumption million tonnes oil equivalent) Oil consumption(million tonnes) 1000 700 U.S.A U.K China Japan 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 II. The Economy and Society Development of China Needs a Lot of Oil and Gas Resources 1. The fast growth of economy in China consumes a lot of oil and gas resources Oil consumption of China is 7.8% of the consumption all over the world, while U.S.A is 25.3%. Million barrels per day 2004 Oil & Gas Journal July 5th l 1 km l 2004 Australia uses 0.8 China 6.3 US 20.5 World 81 US 1 cubic km oil / year Australia China United States II. The Economy and Society Development of China Needs a Lot of Oil and Gas Resources 2. The oil consumption of China will keep growing with the development of economy in the future GDP(hundred million dollars) The GDP growth rate will be averagely 7.5%~9% per year with personal GDP reaching 2600~3100 dollars in the coming 10 years. 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 Forecast on economy increase of China in the coming 10 years (Beijing Statistic information website, 2005) II. The Economy and Society Development of China Needs a Lot of Oil and Gas Resources 2. The oil consumption of China will keep growing with the development of economy in the future Yearly demand (million tonnes) 450 400 Tsinghua University Zhang Rong 350 300 250 Mu Shuling 200 The oil demand of China in 2020 will be today’s 1.5 times and reach 4 hundred million tones 150 100 50 Mineral Dept. Average 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Forecast curves on oil demand by different scholars of China in the coming 15 years II. The Economy and Society Development of China Needs a Lot of Oil and Gas Resources 2500 2000 The gas demand of China will be today’s 3.5 times and reach 180 billion cubic meters in 2020. Zhang Kang 1500 Mu Shuling 1000 500 Average 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Yearly Demand (hundred million cubic meters) 2. The oil consumption of China will keep growing with the development of economy in the future Forecast curves on gas demand by different scholars of China in the coming 15 years Contents I. Forward II. The Economy Development of China Needs a Lot of Oil and Gas Resources III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production in China and their Prediction IV. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Shortage in China and Their Prediction V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and Gas in China and Their Countermeasures Ⅵ. Conclusions III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production in China and Their Prediction Year 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Accumulated Accumulated Yearly Left found found increase of Geological recoverable geological recoverable recoverable reserves/p reserves reserves reserves reserves roduction (108t) 8 8 8 (10 t) (10 t) (10 t) 71.4922 27.3631 0.7016 18.2164 17.2 73.9068 28.2873 0.9242 18.1316 18 76.4557 29.2629 0.9756 18.0885 17.8 82.2484 32.533 3.2701 20.3013 19.2 93.2744 35.7001 3.167 22.3255 19.5 116.1723 37.9323 1.9198 23.312 18.7 125.1811 39.3364 1.4264 23.4124 18 132.1743 41.0333 1.6969 23.7701 17.7 137.4164 42.2109 1.1776 23.5793 17.2 142.2609 41.9143 0.9992 21.9079 15.9 148.6561 43.2425 1.3282 21.855 15.8 154.0888 43.9483 1.1229 21.164 15.2 158.9784 44.9312 0.9809 20.7273 14.6 164.8273 48.0659 1.2782 22.422 15.6 169.8718 49.2847 1.1512 22.18 15.2 174.3001 50.9078 0.742 22.3125 15 181.5766 52.6027 1.2869 22.4345 14.3 190.6682 54.9943 1.8306 23.2217 14.5 197.7078 57.147 1.5952 23.7692 14.8 205.6493 59.3418 1.632 24.36 15.2 212.8956 60.9517 1.6099 24.5153 14.9 217.5896 62.0432 1.0915 23.7884 14.4 225.5917 63.397 1.3538 23.8737 14.1 234.2 65.1261 1.7291 23.81 14.0 1. Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Exploration in China ( until the end of 2003): Total amount: oil= 101 billion tones; gas= 42 trillion cubic meters Accumulated discovered geological reserves: oil= 23.42 billion tones; gas= 3.87 trillion cubic meters Accumulated discovered recoverable reserves: oil= 6.513 billion tones; gas= 2.47 trillion cubic meters Remaining recoverable reserves: oil= 2.381 billion tones; gas=2.09 trillion cubic meters Proved rate: oil= 38.9%; gas= 23.0% III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production in China and Their Prediction 2. Yearly production curves of oil and gas with time since 1949 Production (million tones) 200 150 100 oil 50 0 1944 1954 1964 1974 1984 1994 2004 Production (hundred million cubic meters) 350 300 250 gas 200 150 100 50 0 1944 1954 1964 1974 1984 1994 2004 oil production (ten thousand tonnes) III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production in China and Their Prediction 3. Oil and gas production in different areas of China 20000 15000 East China Middle China West China China’s Sea 10000 5000 gas production(hundred million cubic meters) 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 300 250 200 East China Middle China West China China’s Sea 150 100 50 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production in China and Their Prediction 4. Forecast approach and principle on China’s future oil and gas production Norway (North Sea) Typical Oil Depletion Curve Werner Zittel , LBST www.energiekrise.de III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production in China and Their Prediction Oil and gas resources (hundred million tones) 4. Forecast approach and principle on China’s future oil and gas production Theoretical maximum resources Yearly proved resources Proved resources Proved recoverable resources Yearly production Accumulated production Exploration and development procession Relationship among the oil and gas resources, proved and recoverable resources, remaining recoverable resources and yearly production III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production in China and Their Prediction Exploration fruits (108tones) 4. Forecast approach and principle on China’s future oil and gas production 250 200 150 accumulated discovered geological reservoirs accumulated discovered recoverable reservoirs remaining recoverable reservoirs 100 50 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Relationship among the oil and gas resources, proved and recoverable resources, remaining recoverable resources and yearly production of China from 1970 to 2003 III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production in China and Their Prediction Oil 250 200 Guo Baoshen Jia Wenrui Mu Shuling Shen Pingping Average 150 100 50 0 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00 20 02 20 04 20 06 20 08 20 10 20 12 20 14 20 16 20 18 20 20 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 Zhou Zongying Gas 600 Jia Wenrui Mu Shuling Wan Jiye 400 Zhao Fuxing 200 Average 0 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00 20 02 20 04 20 06 20 08 20 10 20 12 20 14 20 16 20 18 20 20 Production (hundred million cubic meters) Production (million tones) 5. Forecast on China’s oil and gas production by different scholars in the coming 15 years. 400 yearly net increase of recoverable reservoirs yearly oil production 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 gas production 140 yearly net increase of recoverable reservoirs 120 (million tones) 0 1960 Yearly gas production Yearly oil production (million tones) III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production in China and Their Prediction 6. Forecast on oil and gas production until 2050 100 80 60 40 20 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 III. The Brief Introduction and Forecast on Oil and Gas Production in China 6. Forecast on oil and gas production in China 300 Million Tones 250 2026 2005 Oil production 石油年产量 Gas production 天然气年产量 200 } Gas 150 } 100 Oil 50 0 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 Forecast on China’s oil and gas production Contents I. Forward II. The Economy Development of China Needs a Lot of Oil and Gas Resources III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production in China and their Prediction IV. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Shortage in China and Their Prediction V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and Gas in China and Their Countermeasures Ⅵ. Conclusions IV. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Shortage in China and Their Prediction 1. The shortage of oil and gas is an inevitable problem faced by human beings Gb /year 50 40 30 20 50 Demand Growth World oil shortfall scenarios 40 Past Production of Oil 20 Forecast Production 10 } Shortfall 30 10 0 1930 2002 2030 0 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 time By 2030, the gap is equivalent to 6,000 nuclear reactors IV. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Shortage in China and Their Prediction 2. The shortage of oil in China is shown by large importation. Production and demand (million tones) 500 400 Importation is 50% of Total demand in 2010 China began to import oil in 1993 Oil demand } 300 Shortfall Oil production 200 ● 100 0 1960 Importation is 41% of Total demand in 2004 1970 1980 1990 Time 2000 2010 2020 IV. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Shortage in China and Their Prediction 2. The shortage of gas in China is shown by large importation Production and demand (hundred million cubic meters) 2000 } Gas demand 1500 Begin to import gas shortfall 1000 Gas production 500 0 1950 ● 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2004 2010 2020 Contents I. Forward II. The Economy Development of China Needs a Lot of Oil and Gas Resources III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production in China and their Prediction IV. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Shortage in China and Their Prediction V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and Gas in China and Their Countermeasures Ⅵ. Conclusions V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and Gas in China and Their Countermeasures Challenge I :Restrain economy development Defense …… Transportation Space industry Chemical Industry Traffic Oil & gas Environment Oil is the blood of industry. The industry cannot develop without it. It costs us a lot of foreign exchanges to import oil. The number of 2004 reached 300 billion RMB. The expense on yearly importation will keep increasing with the increase of importation and higher oil price. Bottleneck V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and Gas in China and Their Countermeasures Challenge II : Affect people’s life and environment 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 World 1970 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1975 1980 China 1985 1990 1995 2000 China 1970 1975 1980 U.S.A 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 coal oil hydro gas 1995 2000 nuclear 1985 1990 1995 2000 年 份 China has a large population and is in shortage of energy. People are still using traditional methods to utilize the energy. It causes a series of environment problems: decrease of forests and plants, decline of earth and organic matters in the soil , growth of desert, and so on. China has the largest coal production and consumption. The burning of coal gives out 85% of the country’s SO 2,85% of the country’s CO2,and 75% of the country’s dust. The loss cost by acid rain is 2% of the GDP in 1998. The potential effect of CO2 is a key factor in the energy field. V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and Gas in China and Their Countermeasures Challenge III :Affect country security Oil and gas are important strategy Gulf War resources. In modern war, the production and procession basement of oil and its transportation tools are the main attacking targets by enemies. The shortage of oil will seriously threaten the security of the country. Now the pillage on oil and gas resources is so furious around the world. The past Gulf War and newly ended Iraq War are all because of the abundance of oil resources in the Middle-east. Iraq War V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and Gas in China and Their Countermeasures How to deal with these challenges brought by the shortage of oil and gas ? Gb/year 50 Demand Growth World oil shortfall scenarios 40 Efficiency Transport mode shifts Pricing / taxes City design / lifestyle 30 Past Production of Oil Other petroleum fuels gas, tar-sands Other fuels 20 Forecast Production 10 Deprivation, war 2005 0 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 • no single “Magic Bullet” solution • probably no replacement ever for cheap plentiful oil • Urgent preparation and adjustment are vital V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and Gas in China and Their Countermeasures China adopts four measures to solve the shortage of oil and gas resources problems Oil and gas production and demand (million tones) 600 500 Take saving measures Oil and gas demand 2005 400 300 Find substitute energy Utilize overseas energy Oil and gas production Develop domestic energy 200 100 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and Gas in China and Their Countermeasures Measure I:Innovate geological theory and fasten the development and utilization of domestic oil and gas resources China’s oil and gas resources: Oil: 104 billion tones, proved rate:38.9% (the world:73.0%) Gas: 42trillion cubic meters, proved rate:23.0% (the world: 60.5%) Oil and gas resources distribution and exploration situation in China V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and Gas in China and Their Countermeasures Measure II :Participate international competition and broaden the benefit proportion of international oil and gas resources 17 24 15 8 4 3 11 20 1 2 10 12 13 25 7 19 2122 9 北京 ★ 18 5 6 16 14 23 1 阿曼 2 也门 3 伊朗 4 科威特 5 泰国 6 印尼 7 土库曼斯坦 8 阿塞拜疆 9 蒙古 10 苏丹 11 阿尔及利亚 12 尼日利亚 13 委内瑞拉 14 秘鲁 15 加拿大 16 巴布亚新几内亚 17 哈萨克斯坦 18 缅甸 19 加蓬 20 沙特 21 安哥拉 22 刚果 23 澳大利亚 24 吉尔吉斯斯坦 25 厄瓜多尔 The benefit oil and gas resources are totally 19.74 million tones, among them, PetroChina 14.43 million tones, CNOOC 5 million tones, SINOPEC 0.31 million tones. The situation and fruits of China’s overseas oil and gas exploration V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and Gas in China and Their Countermeasures Measure III: Increase the expenses on science and technology and develop substitute energy Substitute energy ★Coal to oil ★Develop hydrogen energy ★Ethanol gasoline ★Develop biomass energy ★Utilizing wind and solar energy ★Utilizing nuclear energy Oil and gas are non-renewable energy resources and will be used up in some day. Governments in all the countries should take measures to look for substitute energies. V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and Gas in China and Their Countermeasures Measure IV : Adopt saving measures and guarantee the stable development Measures to Save oil & gas ★Change life style ★Develop public transportation ★Decrease the consumption of oil by cars ★Improve the efficiency of oil and gas utilization Oil is a high-efficiency energy and gas is a clean energy. The oil price will keep increasing, so adopting oil saving measures will be the direction we take efforts to. V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and Gas in China and Their Countermeasures What is our purpose to take these measures? ★ US China Contents I. Forward II. The Economy Development of China Needs a Lot of Oil and Gas Resources III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production in China and their Prediction IV. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Shortage in China and Their Prediction V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and Gas in China and Their Countermeasures Ⅵ. Conclusions Ⅵ. Conclusions 1. China’s economy is still in fast development stage, oil and gas resources are the most important energies. 2. It is inevitable that oil and gas will be used up in the future, the predicted peak production of oil and gas in China will be in 2026. 3. Chinese government now is paying much more attention to this serious problem and four measures are taken to solve this problem. 4. We believe that human beings can take advantage of their talents and knowledge to solve this problem. Thanks for your