Download The fourth industrial revolution

Thefourthindustrialrevolution
KlausSchwab
ThequestionisnotamIgoingtobedisruptedbutwhenisdisruptioncoming,whatformwill
ittakeandhowwillitaffectmeandmyorganisation?
`introduction
Technologiesareamplifyingeachotherinafusionoftechnologiesacrossthephysicaldigital
andbiologicalworlds.Wearewitnessingprofoundshiftsacrossallindustriesmarketbythe
emergenceofnewbusinessmodels,thedisruptionofincumbentsandthereshapingof
production,consumption,transportationanddeliverysystems.Onthesocialfronta
paradigmshiftisunderwayinhowweworkandcommunicate,aswellashowweexpress,
inform,andentertainourself.
Decisionmakersaretoooftencaughtintraditionallinear(non-disruptive)thinkingortoo
absorbedbyimmediateconcernstothinkstrategicallyabouttheforcesofdisruptionand
innovationshapingourfuture.
Typicalcharacteristicsofthisindustrialrevolution:
Velocity:Thisrevolutionisevolvingatanexponentialratherthanalinearpace,
Breathanddepth:Itleadstounprecedentedparadigmshiftsineconomy,business,society
andindividually.Itischangingthe“what”,the“how”ofdoingthingsbutalso“who”weare.
Systemimpact:Itinvolvesthetransformationofentiresystemsacross(andwithin)
countries,companiesandsocietyasawhole.
Impactonpower
Byenablingsmartfactories,thefourthindustrialrevolutioncreatesaworldinwhichvirtual
andphysicalsystemsofmanufacturinggloballycooperatewitheachotherinaflexibleway.
Thisenablestheabsolutecustomizationofproductsandthecreationofnewoperating
models.Digitalbusinesseshavemarginalcoststhattendstowardszero.Additionally,the
realityofthedigitalageisthatmanynewbusinessesprovide“informationalgoods”with
storage,transportationandreplicationcoststhatarevirtualnil.Ourdeviceswillbecomean
increasingpartofourpersonalecosystem,listeningtous,anticipatingourneedsand
helpinguswhenrequired,evenifnotasked.
Thechallengescreatedbythefourthindustrialrevolutionappeartobemostlyonthesupply
side,intheworldofworkandproduction.Asaresult,thegreatbeneficiariesarethe
providersofintellectualorphysicalcapital,theinnovatorsofintellectualorphysicalcapital,
theinnovators,theinvestorsandtheshareholderswhichexplainstherisinggapinwealth
betweenthosewhodependsontheirlabourandthosewhoowncapital.Theconcentration
ofbenefitsandvalueinjustasmallpercentageofpeopleisalsoexacerbatedbytheso-
calledplatformeffect,inwhichdigitally-drivenorganisationscreatenetworksthatmatch
buyersandsellersofawidevarietyofproductsandservicesandtherebyenjoyincreasing
returnstoscale.Theconsequenceoftheplatformeffectisaconcentrationoffewbut
powerfulplatformswhichdominatetheirmarkets
Drivers/impact
Thedigitalrevolutioniscreatingradicallynewapproachesthatrevolutionizethewayin
whichindividualsandinstitutionsengageandcollaborate.Blockchainisanexampleof
“distributiveledger”.Technologybasedplatformsmakepossiblewhatisnowcalledthe
on-demandeconomy.Theseplatforms,whichareeasytouseonasmartphone,convene
people,assetsanddata,creatingentirelynewwaysofconsuminggoodsandservices.Uber
showsthedisruptivepowerofthesetechnologyplatforms.Allplatformshaveonethingin
common:matchingsupplyanddemandinaveryaccessible(lowcost)way,byproviding
consumerswithdiversegoods,andbuyallowingbothpartiestointeractandgivefeedback,
theseplatformsthereforeseedtrust.Inaddition,whenusingdigitalplatforms,themarginal
costofproducingeachadditionalproduct,goodorservicetendstowardszero.
Wearestillatthebeginningofthefourthindustrialrevolution,anditwillrequireentirely
neweconomicandorganizationalstructurestograspitsfullvalue.Thecompetitiverules
willbedifferent.Toremaincompetitive,companiesmustbeatthefrontierofinnovationin
allitsforms,whichmeansthestrategieswhichprimarilyfocusonreducingcostswillbeless
effectivethanthosewhicharebasedonofferingproductsandservicesinmoreinnovative
ways.Establishedcompaniesarebeingputunderextremepressurebyemergingdisruptors
andinnovatorsfromotherindustriesandcountries.Thereasonwhythenewtechnology
revolutionwillprovokemoreupheavalare:speed,breathanddepthandthecomplete
transformationofentiresystems.Organisationshastooperateandorganizewithspeedand
agility.
Multiplesourcesofdisruptiontriggerdifferentformsofbusinessimpact.Inthesupplychain
newtechnologiescreateentirelynewwaysofservingexistingneedsandsignificantly
disruptexistingvaluechains,e.g.3-Dprintingwillmakedistributedmanufacturingand
spare-partmaintenanceeasierandcheaper.Realtimeinformationandintelligencewill
provideuniqueinsightsoncustomersandassetperformancethatwillamplifyother
technologicaltrends.Digitizationalsoenableslargeincumbentstocrossindustries
boundariesbyleveragingtheircustomerbase,infrastructureortechnology.
Majorshiftsonthedemandsidearealsodisruptingbusiness.Increasingtransparency,
customerengagementandnewpatternsofconsumerbehaviour(buildonmobileaccess)
forcecompaniestoadaptthewaytheydesign,marketanddeliverexistingandnewproduct
andservices.Thisisforcingallcompaniestore-examinethewaytheydobusinessand
takesdifferentforms.Disruptionwillaffectboththedemandandsupplysidesofthe
business.
Majorimpacts
-customerexpectationsareshifting
-productsarebeingenhancedbydata,whichimprovesassetproductivity
-newpartnershipsarebeingformedascompanieslearntheimportanceofnewformsof
collaborationand
-operatingmodelsarebeingtransformedintonewdigitalmodels.
Customers(BtoBandBtoC)areincreasinglyatthecentreofthedigitaleconomy,whichisall
abouthowtheyareserved.Customerexpectationsarebeingredefinedintoexperiences.
Customerscanbeidentifiedbasedontheirwillingnesstosharedataandinteract.Theworld
ismovingmuchmoretopeer-to-peersharinganduser-generatedcontent.Thisisanowworld,whichrequirescompaniestorespondinrealtimewherevertheyareortheir
customersorclientsmaybe.Productsandservicesareenhancedwithdigitalcapabilities
thatincreasetheirvalue(liketesla).Dataandanalyticsarealsotransformingtheroleof
maintenance.Nolongerlookforspecificfaultsbutitismoreaboutperformance
benchmarks(suppliedbysensors)Newbusinessmodelscanbebasedonserviceslikeasset
performanceoractualperformance.Thecombinationofsensorsandanalyticsenablestire
companiestomonitordriverperformance,fuelconsumptionandtireweartooffera
completeend-to-endservice.
Collaborationismoreimportantthanever,companiesneedtogowellbeyondmarketing
andsalesagreementstounderstandhowtoadoptcomprehensivecollaborative
approaches.
Rethinkoperatingmodelsmeansthatplatformsenabledbythenetworkeffectsof
digitalizationareimportant.Inaglobalworldtheseplatformsintimatelyconnecttothe
physicalworld.Platformstrategiescombinedwiththeneedtobemorecustomer-centric
andtoenhanceproductswithdata,areshiftingmanyindustriesfromafocusonselling
productstodeliveringservices.Frugalbusinessmodelsusetheopportunitiesaffordedby
theinteractionofdigital,physicalandhumanrealmstoopenupnewformsofoptimization
suchaseffortsbyMichelintoprovidehigh-qualityservicesatlowcost.
Tobecompetitiveinthefuturethenatureoforganizationalstructureswillhavetobe
rethought.Flexiblehierarchies,newwaysofmeasuring(processbasedaccountability
insteadofoutcomebasedaccountability)andnewrewardingsystemstoattractskilled
talent.Organizationswillshiftfromhierarchicalstructurestomorenetworkedand
collaborativemodels.Organisationswillbecomeincreasinglyorganizedarounddistributed
teams.
Thedigitalopportunitiesinproductsareoftennottranslatedintojusthigherpricesorlower
costsbutalsointofundamentalchangeofthebusinessmodel.Thisisdrivenbyend-to-end
approach,fromserviceacquisitiontodelivery.Thesecombination-basedbusinessmodels
illustratetheextentofthedistributionthatoccurswhendigitalassetsandinteresting
combinationsofexistingdigitalplatformsareusedtoreorganizerelationshipswithphysical
assets.Thefocusistobuiltonasuperiorexperiencecombinedwithreducedtransaction
andfrictioncosts.Thesecompaniesmatchdemandandsupplyinarapidandconvenient
mannerwhichsidestepsthebusinessmodelsofincumbents.Fastmovingcompetitors
provokeadisaggregationofthemoretraditionalindustrysilosandvaluechainsandalso
disintermediatetheexistingrelationshipbetweenbusinessesandtheircustomers.Inalmost
allindustries,digitaltechnologieshavecreatednew,disruptivewaysofcombiningproducts
andservicesandintheprocesshavedissolvedthetraditionalboundariesbetween
industries.(seetheautomotiveindustryandtechnology).Thelevelofdisruptionis
differentinthevariousindustries,butinaworldcharacterizedbyuncertaintytheability
toadaptiscritical.Ifacompanyisunabletomoveupthecurveitmaybepushedoffit.
Thecompaniesthatsurviveorthrivewillneedtomaintainandcontinuallysharpentheir
innovativeedge.Smallandmediumsizedenterpriseswillhavetheadvantagesofspeedand
agilityneededtodealwithdisruptionandinnovation.Largeorganizationsbycontrastwill
survivebyleveragingtheirscaleadvantagesandinvestingintheirecosystemofstart-ups
andSMEsbyacquiringandpartneringwithsmallerandmoreinnovativebusinesses.
Inallmomentsofmajortechnologicalchange,people,companies
andinstitutionsfeelthedepthofthechange,buttheyareoften
overwhelmedbyit,outofsheerignoranceofitseffects.
Samenvattingvanhetboek“Thefourthindustrialrevolution”vanKlausSchwab,World
EconomicForum(2016).
Vooraldehoofdstukkendiegaanoverdeimpactopondernemingen,supplychainsen
klantengedrag.
ProfDrC.N.A.Molenaar
3maart2016