Download INTERMODAL CHOICES ROLE OF THE RAILWAYS

INTERMODAL CHOICES
ROLE OF THE RAILWAYS
BIMSTEC
Pramod Uniyal
Academic Advisor IRT
NAIR
Vadodara
16.9.14
A THOUGHT
“ SINCE THE DAWN OF HUMAN ACTIVITY
TO THIS DAY, QUICK AND SAFE
TRANSPOTATION OF PEOPLE AND
GOODS HAS BEEN A CONSTANT GOAL
OF EVERY ORGANISATION”
ECONOMIC CYCLES AND
TRANSPORT TECHNOLOGIES
FIRST
1830 TO 1960
SECOND
1910 TO 2010
THIRD
1960 TO ------
STEEL, COAL, STEAM
RAILWAY, INORGANIC
CHEMISTRY
OIL, ELECTRICITY,
ELECTRIFIED RAILWAY,
PRIVATE CAR
INTERNET, HIGH SPEED
RAILWAY, INTEGRATED
LOGISTICS, AIRPLANE
CHARACTERISTICS OF DEMAND FOR
TRANSPORT--- SOME BASIC FACTS
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Spatial displacement of goods and
persons over time
Derived demand
Variability in demand during the day
and from day to day
Perishibility
Indivisibility
Contd.
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Providing transportation consumes time
and energy, thereby incurring a cost
Traffic volumes that would occur at
different level of costs represent the
demand for transportation
Service characteristics of the
transportation facilities constitute its
supply characteristics
CONTD,
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Transportation demand analysis is the
relationship between,
i) traffic volumes
ii) supply characteristics
iii) socio economic activity trends
Transportation investments are large and
therefore projects have long gestation
periods and have to be adequately factored in
while analyzing demand vis-à-vis its supply
characteristics
DEMAND FOR FREIGHT--THREE BASIC APPROACHES
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(a) Basic unit of analysis is the firm and transportation as
one of the inputs into the production and marketing processes.
Affected by:(i) shipper‘s economic positivism of short‐term cost
optimization
(ii) technological positivism relationships between
physical aspects of the transport system (e.g. speed, frequency)
and physical aspects of the product (e.g. perishability,
value‐weight ratio)
(iii) perceptual approach the perceptions of members of
shipper‐organizations, particularly transport managers
Contd…
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(b) Aggregate in nature to explain the
movement of commodities from areas
of surpluses to deficits using gravity
and optimization models
CONTD.
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(c) Macroeconomic, analyzing interrelations
between sectors of economy using inputoutput model. Transportation being one of
the sectors it is possible to analyze the
transportation requirements of the other
sectors and then to translate these into flows
of commodities. This can also lend itself to
multiregional demand analysis
PASSENGER DEMAND----BASIC
DECISIONS
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Consumer has to decide,
i) whether to make the trip
ii) where to make the trip
iii) when to make the trip
iv) which mode to use
v) what route to take
FORECASTING THE DEMAND
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Ability to understand the socio economic
trends
Define logically the exogenous factors
constituting the demand model
Specification of the functional form
Short term easier
Long term determined by the validity of the
models as both ability to pay and the wisdom
of paying transportation costs may undergo a
radical change
CLASSIFICATION OF COSTS
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OPERATORS
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USERS
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SOCIAL
OPERATORS
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ALLOCATION
joint/common
INDIVISIBILITIES
long/short term
ECONOMIES
USERS
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GENERALISED COST
C=F + vT, where F is the monetary
value and T, the time spent converted
to monetary value by the factor v, the
value of time
SOCIAL COSTS
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RESOURCE COST
opportunity costs
allocative efficiency
EXTERNAL COSTS
congestion
pollution
safety
INTERDEPENDANCIES
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Unimodal Transport
Intermodal Transport
Multimodal Transport
Logistics/Supply Chain Management
Factors which may affect the intermodal choices are
(i) Physical
(ii) Social
(iii) Historical
(iv) Regulatory
PHYSICAL FACTORS LAND USE
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Problem of urbanization
Problem of ribbon development
Problem of Central Business District(CBD)
- congestion pricing
Growth of cities - suburban, conurbations
Regional Development
Contd. SAFETY
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Economic loss
Loss of image
Increased costs
Failure to meet targets
Contd.---Environment
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Question of noise pollution
Question of air pollution
Loss of value of property
Increasing anxiety for use of facilities by a
feeling of deprivation
SOCIAL FACTORS----ACCESSIBILITY
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Question of right to mobility
Question of affordability
Question of congestion leading to
increased costs
Contd.-----SEVERITY
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Spoiling of the landscape
Dividing communities
Question of right of way conflicting with
changing travel patterns of the population
HISTORICAL FACTORS---FINANCIAL VIABILITY
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Strategies for revenue generation
Strategies for expenditure control
Strategies for investment
Tariff policy
Capital output ratio
Contd.----FINANCING
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Federal or Budgetary Support
Generation of Internal Resources
Bilateral/Multilateral Aid
Market Borrowings
Alternate financing schemes
Special Purpose Vehicles
Contd.---RESEARCH
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Commitment of resources, government or
private
Public versus private transport
Use of IT
MODAL ASSIGNMENT---ALLOCATIVE
EFFICIENCY
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Optimal use of resources
Question of Public good
Question of payment of user charges
Question of marginal social cost versus
marginal cost
Question of subsidy----internal versus
external
Question of modal split
REGULATORY FACTORS
Ayers and Braithwaites enforcement
pyramid
Command
regulation with
nondiscretionary
punishment
Command
Regulation with
Discretionary
punishment
Harder Law
Enforced
self-regulation
Softer Law
Self-regulation
ROLE OF THE RAILWAYS
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Increasing trade and commerce, the
corollary of economic development, will
necessarily require more and more
socio-economic interactions both at
domestic and international levels
Increasing energy, land and social costs
will make railways the most important
factor in conceptualizing and designing
intermodal transports
AFTERTHOUGHT
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“It is almost impossible to exaggerate
the profound impact of the railways.
They transformed the agricultural
economies, which had prevailed since
mankind emerged from the caves, into
the industrial age”
Blood , Iron & Gold How the Railway Transformed The
World
Christian Wolmar
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
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Demand for Transportation D Kanfini
Transport Economics Stubbs
C D Foster The Transport Problem
Glaister Transport Economics
Railway Management and Engineering