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ECONOMIC POLICY DIVISION ECONOMIC NOTE AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL ACCOUNTS – JUNE QUARTER 2008 All data refers to seasonally adjusted, Chain Volume Measures, unless otherwise stated. Australia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.3% during the June quarter 2008, after growth of 0.7% in the March quarter 2008. The 0.3% growth rate was the slowest national quarterly growth recorded since the December quarter 2004 (which also recorded 0.3% growth). Over the year to the June quarter 2008, GDP grew by 2.7%. The industry that made the greatest contribution to GDP growth during the June quarter 2008 (for the second consecutive) was property and business services, which added 0.3 percentage points to growth, followed by transport and storage (contributing 0.2 percentage points). Agriculture, forestry and fishing detracted the most from GDP growth during the quarter (detracting 0.2 percentage points), followed by finance and insurance, and government administration and defence (which both detracted 0.1 percentage points respectively). In terms of expenditure components, the largest domestic contributor to GDP growth was business investment, which added 0.8 percentage points to growth. This was followed by public consumption, which added 0.2 percentage points. Components to make the largest detraction from growth during the quarter were changes in inventories (0.5 percentage points), and household consumption and ownership transfer costs (which both detracted 0.1 percentage points). This is the first quarterly decline in the real volume of national household consumption since the September quarter 1993. Australia’s terms of trade grew by 13.1% during June quarter 2008, the largest quarterly increase since the March quarter 1973. Australia’s terms of trade rose 15.6% over the year to the June quarter 2008, a follows year-ended growth of 5.6% and 6.5% respectively over the previous two financial years. Farm GDP contracted in the June quarter 2008 by 7.7%, while non-farm GDP (which makes up the bulk of total GDP) grew by 0.5%. Over the past year, the growth rates for the farm and non-farm GDP were 13.1% and 2.5%, respectively. Real net national disposable income (a broad measure of change in overall economic welfare) grew by 3.6% over the June quarter 2008, and 6.6% over the year. In per capita terms, disposable income grew by 3.1% over the quarter and by 4.9% over the year. The GDP implicit price deflator, (a measure of underlying inflationary pressures across the Australian economy), grew by 3.2% during the quarter and 6.7% through the year1. G R O S S D O M E S T IC P R O D U C T A u s tra lia 3 .0 % 12% 2 .5 % 10% 2 .0 % 8% 1 .5 % 6% 1 .0 % 4% 0 .5 % 2% 0 .0 % 0% -0 .5 % -2 % -1 .0 % Ju n -9 8 J u n -0 0 J u n -0 2 Q u a rte rly G ro w th (L H S ) J u n -0 4 J u n -0 6 -4 % J u n -0 8 Y e a r E n d e d G ro w th (R H S ) S o u rc e : A B S C a t 5 2 0 6 .0 1 This is a much broader measure than the CPI, as it incorporates price information for all categories of the national economy (e.g. business investment, household consumption, exports, and others), whereas the CPI only measures consumer price inflation. It is also calculated with a different methodology to the CPI. TREASURY & FINANCE 197 ST GEORGES TERRACE, PERTH WA 6000 TELEPHONE (08) 9278 6704 FAX (08) 9481 0652 Details Of the main components of GDP: • • • • • • Private consumption fell by 0.1% over the quarter, but was up 2.9% over the year. Dwelling investment (excluding ownership transfer costs) rose by 0.5% during the March quarter and by 2.6% through the year. Ownership transfer costs fell by 4.5% over the quarter and by 14.4% over the four quarters to the June quarter 2008. Business investment levels rose by 4.6% in the June quarter, including an 11.3% rise in machinery and equipment (the largest category of business investment – equal to about half of the total). Private gross fixed capital formation (business investment) was the fastest growing component of GDP, and made the largest contribution to total growth. Public consumption rose by 1.2% over the June quarter and by 4.6% in year-ended terms, and Public investment rose by 2.4% over the quarter and 7.2% over the year. Exports of goods and services rose by 2.7% in the June quarter, with Imports of goods and services rising by 2.2%. Overall, net exports made zero contribution to GDP growth in the June quarter 2008. In year-ended terms, exports rose by 6.1%, while imports grew by 13.0%. Changes in inventories detracted $962 million from GDP in the June quarter (in nominal terms). GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT Final Consumption Expenditure -Private -Public Gross Fixed Capital Expenditure -Business Investment -Dwelling Investment -Ownership Transfer Costs -Public investment Domestic Final Demand Change in Inventories External Demand Exports of Goods and Services Less: Imports of Goods and Services Net Exports Statistical Discrepancy Gross Domestic Product June Qtr 2008 (Current Prices) $ Million Quarterly Change % Year-ended Change % 159,726 51,375 -0.1 1.2 2.9 4.6 46,579 17,617 4,635 13,443 4.6 0.5 -4.5 2.4 10.8 2.6 -14.4 7.2 293,375 -962 0.9 n/a 4.3 n/a 67,678 2.7 6.1 67,119 559 2.2 n/a 13.0 n/a 384 n/a n/a 293,355 0.3 2.7 Note: All data is from Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Catalogue number 5206.0 – Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, Jun 2008. All growth rates are expressed in real, seasonally adjusted terms unless otherwise stated, however levels ($ Million) are in nominal (current price) terms, which include both price and volume effects. All annual growth rates are expressed in year-ended terms, which measures the change in one quarter of one year on the corresponding quarter in the previous year. ABS National Accounts data are subject to revision each quarter. The reference year for all real (i.e. chain volume) data is 2005-06. 3 September 2008 For further information contact Andrew Wilkinson on 9278 6715, or e-mail at [email protected]