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The European Elections 2014: Mapping the path to the Commission Presidency During their summit on 26-27 June, EU heads of state and government (European Council) will vote on their nomination for the next President of the European Commission. In the aftermath of the European election results last month, lead EPP candidate Jean-Claude Juncker emerged as the frontrunner for the nomination, however moves by some Member States appear to be derailing his bid for the top job and pushing for a compromise candidate. The successful candidate must first be nominated by the European Council after which the candidate must win an absolute majority of members of the European Parliament. Mr Cameron alone can- Currently most Member States are backing Mr Juncker, not block Juncker’s however a group of pro-EU reform Member States, led by nomination – the Euro- UK Prime Minister David Cameron, are attempting to block Mr Juncker’s nomination as they are sceptical about having pean Council nominates an “arch-federalist” at the head of the EU’s executive by qualified majority branch. Indeed Mr Cameron’s Swedish, Dutch and and thus no Member Hungarian counterparts – Fredrik Reinfeldt, Mark Rutte and State holds a veto Viktor Orbán – have expressed their reservations. It’s important to state, though, that Mr Cameron alone cannot block Juncker’s nomination – the European Council nominates the President of the European Commission by qualified majority and thus no Member State holds a veto – and together these countries (UK, Sweden, Netherlands, Hungary) do not wield enough votes in Council to form a blocking minority against Juncker. However, crucially for Cameron, Italian leader Matteo Renzi has also appeared lukewarm to the prospect of a Juncker-led Commission. In qualified majority voting (QMV), each Member State has a certain number of votes. The weighting of votes is set out in the treaties and reflects the size of population of each Member State. Qualified majority is reached when a majority of Member States (15) vote in favour and if a minimum of 260 votes, out of the total 352, are cast in favour. Thus support from Italy will be decisive if Cameron is to assemble a blocking minority. Combining our European pool of expertise & connections For more information on this project, please contact: [email protected] Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, already in a strong position after his PD party won more than 40% of the vote, has stated that the candidate for President will not receive Italy’s support without a clear plan for change. One of the things that could help sway Renzi either way will be a commitment to new rules to boost growth-driven investment, demanded by Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan. In addition to this, Italy will hold the 6 month rotating Presidency of the Council from July, which might strengthen their position in the negotiations. The result is due to be announced at an EU summit on 26-27 June, although an agreement by then is by no means guaranteed. If Mr Juncker does get a qualified majority in the Council, he must secure an absolute majority of MEPs in the European Parliament before his position is confirmed. If he does not manage to reach the magic number of 376, then the European Council must propose another candidate within one month, paving the way for a compromise candidate to emerge. In all likelihood though Mr Juncker, if nominated, will receive the majority he needs in the Parliament after all political groups (with the exception of the ECR, EFD and EAF) backed his nomination. Next steps 26-27 June: European Council to nominate candidate for the Presidency of the European Commission 14-17 July: European Parliament to elect the next President of the European Commission. European Council has one month to propose a new candidate if rejected by Parliament October: Investiture of the new European Commission by the European Parliament About LOGOS Public Affairs LOGOS Public Affairs regularly organizes briefings to promote debate between European institutions' high-level representatives and industry on current issues of interest, thereby creating an opportunity for stakeholders to make a positive contribution to ongoing discussions. LOGOS events are held under Chatham House Rules. LOGOS is a Public Affairs, Association Management and Stakeholder dialogue company part of the MCI Group, a globally integrated association, communication and event management company. 55 offices in 24 countries. Find out more at www.logos-eu.com. Follow us: @Logos_pa Combining our European pool of expertise & connections For more information on this project, please contact: [email protected]