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The European Elections 2014:
Mapping the path to the Commission
Presidency
During their summit on 26-27 June, EU heads of state and government (European Council) will vote
on their nomination for the next President of the European Commission. In the aftermath of the
European election results last month, lead EPP candidate Jean-Claude Juncker emerged as the
frontrunner for the nomination, however moves by some Member States appear to be derailing his
bid for the top job and pushing for a compromise candidate.
The successful candidate must first be nominated by the European Council after which the
candidate must win an absolute majority of members of the
European Parliament.
Mr Cameron alone can- Currently most Member States are backing Mr Juncker,
not block Juncker’s however a group of pro-EU reform Member States, led by
nomination – the Euro- UK Prime Minister David Cameron, are attempting to block
Mr Juncker’s nomination as they are sceptical about having
pean Council nominates
an “arch-federalist” at the head of the EU’s executive
by qualified majority branch. Indeed Mr Cameron’s Swedish, Dutch and
and thus no Member Hungarian counterparts – Fredrik Reinfeldt, Mark Rutte and
State holds a veto Viktor Orbán – have expressed their reservations.
It’s important to state, though, that Mr Cameron alone
cannot block Juncker’s nomination – the European Council nominates the President of the
European Commission by qualified majority and thus no Member State holds a veto – and together
these countries (UK, Sweden, Netherlands, Hungary) do not wield enough votes in Council to form a
blocking minority against Juncker. However, crucially for Cameron, Italian leader Matteo Renzi has
also appeared lukewarm to the prospect of a Juncker-led Commission.
In qualified majority voting (QMV), each Member State has a certain number of votes. The
weighting of votes is set out in the treaties and reflects the size of population of each Member
State. Qualified majority is reached when a majority of Member States (15) vote in favour and if a
minimum of 260 votes, out of the total 352, are cast in favour. Thus support from Italy will be
decisive if Cameron is to assemble a blocking minority.
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Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, already in a strong position after his PD party won more than
40% of the vote, has stated that the candidate for President will not receive Italy’s support without
a clear plan for change. One of the things that could help sway Renzi either way will be a
commitment to new rules to boost growth-driven investment, demanded by Economy Minister Pier
Carlo Padoan. In addition to this, Italy will hold the 6 month rotating Presidency of the Council from
July, which might strengthen their position in the negotiations.
The result is due to be announced at an EU summit on 26-27 June, although an agreement by then
is by no means guaranteed. If Mr Juncker does get a qualified majority in the Council, he must
secure an absolute majority of MEPs in the European Parliament before his position is confirmed. If
he does not manage to reach the magic number of 376, then the European Council must propose
another candidate within one month, paving the way for a compromise candidate to emerge.
In all likelihood though Mr Juncker, if nominated, will receive the majority he needs in the Parliament after all political groups (with the exception of the ECR, EFD and EAF) backed his nomination.
Next steps
26-27 June:
European Council to nominate candidate for the Presidency of the European
Commission
14-17 July:
European Parliament to elect the next President of the European
Commission. European Council has one month to propose a new candidate if
rejected by Parliament
October:
Investiture of the new European Commission by the European Parliament
About LOGOS Public Affairs
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Combining our European pool of expertise & connections
For more information on this project, please contact:
[email protected]