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Purchasing Managers’ Index®
MARKET SENSITIVE INFORMATION
EMBARGOED UNTIL 0955 (CET) / 0855 (UTC) December 1 2016
Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI
®
– final
data
November marks two years of manufacturing growth in Germany
Key findings:
Manufacturing PMI falls slightly amid slower
increases in output and new orders



Inventory levels stabilise, ending two-year
period of decline
Input cost inflation reaches 56-month high
Data collected from November 11-23
Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI
Markit / BME Germany Manufacturing PMI vs. Bundesbank Manufacturing Output
PMI, sa (50=no change)
65
% yr/yr
20
BB Manufacturing Output
15
60
10
55
5
50
0
-5
45
-10
40
mentioned China and Russia as sources of export
growth.
In response to increased new business, companies
scaled up their production in November. However,
the pace of expansion slowed since the prior month
and was the least marked since May.
Sector data signalled that the consumer and
intermediate goods sub-sectors recorded solid
growth of both output and new orders. Meanwhile,
investment goods manufacturers reported weaker
expansions.
Manufacturing employment was raised further in
November as companies tried to boost capacity.
Although the rate of job creation slowed since
October, it remained among the strongest over the
past five years.
-15
-20
35
-25
Markit / BME PMI
30
-30
25
-35
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Despite falling slightly to 54.3 from October’s 33month high of 55.0, the seasonally adjusted final
Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing Purchasing
®
®
Managers’ Index (PMI ) – a single-figure snapshot
of the performance of the manufacturing economy –
signalled ongoing growth of German manufacturing
in November. Moreover, the PMI remained above
its average for 2016 so far (53.0).
November saw new order intakes rise at a solid
pace. Despite slowing slightly since October, the
pace of expansion was robust with panellists
commenting on rising demand from both the
domestic and foreign markets. Underlying data
showed new export orders increased for the
sixteenth straight month. When asked to comment
on stronger foreign demand, some panellists
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However, the solid rise in staffing levels was
insufficient to prevent a further build-up of
unfinished business. The rate of backlog
accumulation remained marked overall, despite
slowing from October’s 32-month high.
Solid production growth meanwhile resulted in a
stabilisation of post-production inventories. Prior to
October, stocks of finished goods had fallen for two
consecutive years.
In a sign that supply chain pressures continued to
develop, average lead times lengthened to the
greatest extent in over two years. Panellists linked
this to rising demand and a shortage of some raw
materials.
On the price front, latest survey results pointed to
the most marked increase in input costs since
March 2012. Some panellists attributed inflation to
exchange rate factors while others commented on
higher prices for raw materials.
A number of companies passed increased input
© IHS Markit 2016
costs on to their customers in the form of higher
selling prices. However, the rate of charge inflation
slowed slightly since October.
Purchasing activity rose markedly in November,
which panel members attributed to rising new
orders and efforts to build stock. Consequently, preproduction inventories stabilised.
Comment
Commenting on the final Markit/BME Germany
®
Manufacturing
PMI
survey
data,
Oliver
Kolodseike, Economist at IHS Markit said:
“Today’s survey results highlight that Germany’s
manufacturing sector remained in good shape in
November. Although the PMI dipped slightly from
October’s 33-month high, the average reading over
the fourth quarter so far was in fact the best since
early-2014, thereby suggesting that the sector
should have a positive contribution to GDP growth
at the end of the year.
“Although indicators for production, new business
and employment all nudged down since October,
the underlying rates of growth remained strong and
above their respective long-run averages.
Moreover, with backlogs rising sharply and
companies ramping up their purchasing activity, it is
likely that the positive trend in the sector continues
into the new year.
“Meanwhile, the rate of cost inflation accelerated
substantially as higher raw material prices and
exchange rate factors exerted upward pressure on
prices. Input costs increased at the fastest pace
since 2012.”
-Ends-
For further information, please contact:
IHS Markit
Oliver Kolodseike, Economist
Telephone +44-1491-461-003
Email: [email protected]
Joanna Vickers, Corporate Communications
Telephone +44207 260 2234
Email [email protected]
Note to Editors:
The Germany Manufacturing PMI® (Purchasing Managers' Index®) is produced by Markit Economics and is based on original survey data
collected from a representative panel of over 500 companies based in the German manufacturing sector.
The final Germany Manufacturing PMI follows on from the flash estimate which is released a week earlier and is typically based on at least
75% of total PMI survey responses each month. The November flash was based on 95% of the replies used in the final data.
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© IHS Markit 2016
The average differences between the flash and final PMI index values (final minus flash) since comparisons were first available in January
2006 are as follows (differences in absolute terms provide the better indication of true variation while average differences provide a better
indication of any bias):
Index
Germany Manufacturing PMI3
Average
difference
0.0
Average difference
in absolute terms
0.3
The Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®) survey methodology has developed an outstanding reputation for providing the most up-to-date
possible indication of what is really happening in the private sector economy by tracking variables such as sales, employment, inventories
and prices. The indices are widely used by businesses, governments and economic analysts in financial institutions to help better
understand business conditions and guide corporate and investment strategy. In particular, central banks in many countries (including the
European Central Bank) use the data to help make interest rate decisions. PMI® surveys are the first indicators of economic conditions
published each month and are therefore available well ahead of comparable data produced by government bodies.
Markit do not revise underlying survey data after first publication, but seasonal adjustment factors may be revised from time to time as
appropriate which will affect the seasonally adjusted data series. Historical data relating to the underlying (unadjusted) numbers, first
published seasonally adjusted series and subsequently revised data are available to subscribers from Markit. Please contact
[email protected].
Notes
1. The Composite Output PMI is a weighted average of the Manufacturing Output Index and the Services Business Activity Index.
2. The Services Business Activity Index is the direct equivalent of the Manufacturing Output Index, based on the survey question “Is the level of business activity at your company higher,
the same or lower than one month ago?”
3. The Manufacturing PMI is a composite index based on a weighted combination of the following five survey variables (weights shown in brackets): new orders (0.3); output (0.25);
employment (0.2); suppliers’ delivery times (0.15); stocks of materials purchased (0.1). The delivery times index is inverted.
4. The Manufacturing Output Index is based on the survey question “Is the level of production/output at your company higher, the same or lower than one month ago?”
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About PMI
Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®) surveys are now available for over 30 countries and also for key regions including the eurozone. They
are the most closely-watched business surveys in the world, favoured by central banks, financial markets and business decision makers for
their ability to provide up-to-date, accurate and often unique monthly indicators of economic trends. To learn more go to
www.markit.com/product/pmi.
The intellectual property rights to the Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI® provided herein are owned by or licensed to IHS Markit. Any
unauthorised use, including but not limited to copying, distributing, transmitting or otherwise of any data appearing is not permitted without IHS
Markit’s prior consent. IHS Markit shall not have any liability, duty or obligation for or relating to the content or information (“data”) contained herein,
any errors, inaccuracies, omissions or delays in the data, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. In no event shall IHS Markit be liable for any
special, incidental, or consequential damages, arising out of the use of the data. Purchasing Managers' Index ® and PMI® are either registered trade
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