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Slides Prepared by JOHN S. LOUCKS St. Edward’s University © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 1 Chapter 9 Hypothesis Testing Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses Type I and Type II Errors One-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean: Large-Sample Case Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean: Large-Sample Case Tests About a Population Mean: Small-Sample Case Tests About a Population Proportion © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 2 Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses Hypothesis testing can be used to determine whether a statement about the value of a population parameter should or should not be rejected. The null hypothesis, denoted by H0 , is a tentative assumption about a population parameter. The alternative hypothesis, denoted by Ha, is the opposite of what is stated in the null hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis is what the test is attempting to establish. © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 3 Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses Testing Research Hypotheses • Hypothesis testing is proof by contradiction. • The research hypothesis should be expressed as the alternative hypothesis. • The conclusion that the research hypothesis is true comes from sample data that contradict the null hypothesis. © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 4 Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses Testing the Validity of a Claim • Manufacturers’ claims are usually given the benefit of the doubt and stated as the null hypothesis. • The conclusion that the claim is false comes from sample data that contradict the null hypothesis. © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 5 Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses Testing in Decision-Making Situations • A decision maker might have to choose between two courses of action, one associated with the null hypothesis and another associated with the alternative hypothesis. • Example: Accepting a shipment of goods from a supplier or returning the shipment of goods to the supplier © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 6 Summary of Forms for Null and Alternative Hypotheses about a Population Mean The equality part of the hypotheses always appears in the null hypothesis. In general, a hypothesis test about the value of a population mean must take one of the following three forms (where 0 is the hypothesized value of the population mean). H 0 : 0 H a : 0 H 0 : 0 H a : 0 H 0 : 0 H a : 0 One-tailed (lower-tail) One-tailed (upper-tail) Two-tailed © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 7 Example: Metro EMS Null and Alternative Hypotheses A major west coast city provides one of the most comprehensive emergency medical services in the world. Operating in a multiple hospital system with approximately 20 mobile medical units, the service goal is to respond to medical emergencies with a mean time of 12 minutes or less. © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 8 Example: Metro EMS Null and Alternative Hypotheses The director of medical services wants to formulate a hypothesis test that could use a sample of emergency response times to determine whether or not the service goal of 12 minutes or less is being achieved. © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 9 Null and Alternative Hypotheses H0: The emergency service is meeting the response goal; no follow-up action is necessary. Ha: The emergency service is not meeting the response goal; appropriate follow-up action is necessary. where: = mean response time for the population of medical emergency requests © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 10 Type I and Type II Errors Because hypothesis tests are based on sample data, we must allow for the possibility of errors. A Type I error is rejecting H0 when it is true. The person conducting the hypothesis test specifies the maximum allowable probability of making a Type I error, denoted by and called the level of significance. © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 11 Type I and Type II Errors A Type II error is accepting H0 when it is false. It is difficult to control for the probability of making a Type II error, denoted by . Statisticians avoid the risk of making a Type II error by using “do not reject H0” and not “accept H0”. © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 12 Type I and Type II Errors Population Condition Conclusion H0 True ( < 12) H0 False ( > 12) Accept H0 (Conclude < 12) Correct Decision Type II Error Type I Error Correct Decision Reject H0 (Conclude > 12) © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 13 Using the Test Statistic The test statistic z has a standard normal probability distribution. We can use the standard normal probability distribution table to find the z-value with an area of in the lower (or upper) tail of the distribution. The value of the test statistic that established the boundary of the rejection region is called the critical value for the test. The rejection rule is: • Lower tail: Reject H0 if z < z. • Upper tail: Reject H0 if z > z. © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 14 Using the p-Value The p-value is the probability of obtaining a sample result that is at least as unlikely as what is observed. If the p-value is less than the level of significance , the value of the test statistic is in the rejection region. Reject H0 if the p-value < . © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 15 Steps of Hypothesis Testing 1. Determine the null and alternative hypotheses. 2. Specify the level of significance . 3. Select the test statistic that will be used to test the hypothesis. Using the Test Statistic 4. Use to determine the critical value for the test statistic and state the rejection rule for H0. 5. Collect the sample data and compute the value of the test statistic. 6. Use the value of the test statistic and the rejection rule to determine whether to reject H0. © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 16 Steps of Hypothesis Testing Using the p-Value 4. Collect the sample data and compute the value of the test statistic. 5. Use the value of the test statistic to compute the p-value. 6. Reject H0 if p-value < . © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 17 One-Tailed Tests about a Population Mean: Large-Sample Case (n > 30) Hypotheses H 0 : or Ha: Test Statistic Known z x 0 / n H0: Ha: Unknown z x 0 s/ n Rejection Rule Reject H0 if |z| > z © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 18 One-Tailed Test about a Population Mean: Large-Sample Case (n > 30) Let = .05 Sampling distribution of z x 0 / n Reject H0 Do Not Reject H0 z 0 © 2004 Thomson/South-Western z = 1.645 Slide 19 One-Tailed Test about a Population Mean: Large-Sample Case (n > 30) Let = .10 Sampling distribution of z x 0 / n Reject H0 Do Not Reject H0 z z = 1.28 © 2004 Thomson/South-Western 0 Slide 20 Example: Metro EMS Null and Alternative Hypotheses The response times for a random sample of 40 medical emergencies were tabulated. The sample mean is 13.25 minutes and the sample standard deviation is 3.2 minutes. The director of medical services wants to perform a hypothesis test, with a .05 level of significance, to determine whether or not the service goal of 12 minutes or less is being achieved. © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 21 One-Tailed Tests about a Population Mean: Large-Sample Case (n > 30) Using the Test Statistic 1. Determine the hypotheses. H0: Ha: 2. Specify the level of significance. = .05 3. Select the test statistic. z x 0 s/ n ( is not known) 4. State the rejection rule. © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Reject H0 if z > 1.645 Slide 22 One-Tailed Tests about a Population Mean: Large-Sample Case (n > 30) Using the Test Statistic 5. Compute the value of the test statistic. x 13.25 12 z 2.47 s / n 3.2 / 40 6. Determine whether to reject H0. Because 2.47 > 1.645, we reject H0. We are 95% confident that Metro EMS is not meeting the response goal of 12 minutes. © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 23 One-Tailed Tests about a Population Mean: Large-Sample Case (n > 30) Using the pValue 4. Compute the value of the test statistic. x 13.25 12 z 2.47 s / n 3.2 / 40 5. Compute the p–value. For z = 2.47, cumulative probability = .9932. p–value = 1 .9932 = .0068 6. Determine whether to reject H0. Because p–value = .0068 < = .05, we reject H0. © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 24 One-Tailed Tests about a Population Mean: Large-Sample Case (n > 30) Using the p-value = .05 p-value z 0 © 2004 Thomson/South-Western z = 1.645 z= 2.47 Slide 25 Using Excel to Conduct a One-Tailed Hypothesis Test Formula Worksheet A Response 1 Time 2 19.5 3 15.2 4 11.0 5 12.8 6 12.4 7 20.3 8 9.6 9 10.9 10 16.2 11 13.4 12 19.7 B C Sample Size 40 Sample Mean =AVERAGE(A2:A41) Sample Std. Dev. =STDEV(A2:A41) Lev. of Signif. 0.05 Critical Value =NORMSINV(1-C5) Hypoth. Value Standard Error Test Statistic p -Value Conclusion 12 =C3/SQRT(C1) =(C2-C8)/C9 =1-NORMSDIST(C10) =IF(C11<C5,"Reject","Do Not Reject") Note: Rows 13-41 are not shown. © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 26 Using Excel to Conduct a One-Tailed Hypothesis Test Value Worksheet A Response 1 Time 2 19.5 3 15.2 4 11.0 5 12.8 6 12.4 7 20.3 8 9.6 9 10.9 10 16.2 11 13.4 12 19.7 B C Sample Size 40 Sample Mean 13.25 Sample Std. Dev. 3.20 Lev. of Signif. 0.05 Critical Value 1.645 Hypoth. Value Standard Error Test Statistic p -Value Conclusion 12 0.5060 2.471 0.0067 Reject Note: Rows 13-41 are not shown. © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 27 Two-Tailed Tests about a Population Mean: Large-Sample Case (n > 30) Hypotheses H 0 : 0 H a : 0 Test Statistic Known x 0 z / n Unknown z x 0 s/ n Rejection Rule Reject H0 if |z| > z © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 28 Example: Glow Toothpaste Two-Tailed Tests about a Population Mean: Large n The production line for Glow toothpaste is designed to fill tubes with a mean weight of 6 oz. Periodically, a sample of 30 tubes will be selected in order to check the filling process. Quality assurance procedures call for the continuation of the filling process if the sample results are consistent with the assumption that the mean filling weight for the population of toothpaste tubes is 6 oz.; otherwise the process will be adjusted. © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 29 Example: Glow Toothpaste Two-Tailed Tests about a Population Mean: Large n Assume that a sample of 30 toothpaste tubes provides a sample mean of 6.1 oz. and standard deviation of 0.2 oz. Perform a hypothesis test, at the .05 level of significance, to help determine whether the filling process should continue operating or be stopped and corrected. © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 30 Two-Tailed Tests about a Population Mean: Large-Sample Case (n > 30) Using the Test Statistic 1. Determine the hypotheses. H0: Ha: 6 (two-tailed test) 2. Specify the level of significance. = .05 3. Select the test statistic. 4. State the rejection rule. © 2004 Thomson/South-Western x 0 s/ n ( is not known) z Reject H0 if |z| > 1.96 Slide 31 Two-Tailed Tests about a Population Mean: Large-Sample Case (n > 30) Using the Test Statistic Sampling distribution x 0 of z / n Reject H0 Reject H0 Do Not Reject H0 -1.96 © 2004 Thomson/South-Western 0 1.96 z Slide 32 Two-Tailed Tests about a Population Mean: Large-Sample Case (n > 30) Using the Test Statistic 5. Compute the value of the test statistic. x 0 6.1 6 z 2.74 s / n .2 / 30 6. Determine whether to reject H0. Because 2.74 > 1.96, we reject H0. We are 95% confident that the mean filling weight of the toothpaste tubes is not 6 oz. © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 33 Two-Tailed Tests about a Population Mean: Large-Sample Case (n > 30) Using the p-Value Suppose we define the p-value for a two-tailed test as double the area found in the tail of the distribution. With z = 2.74, the cumulative standard normal probability table shows there is a 1.0 - .9969 = .0031 probability of a z–score greater than 2.74 in the upper tail of the distribution. Considering the same probability of a z-score less than –2.74 in the lower tail of the distribution, we have p-value = 2(.0031) = .0062. The p-value .0062 is less than = .05, so H0 is rejected. © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 34 Two-Tailed Tests about a Population Mean: Large-Sample Case (n > 30) Using the p-Value 1/2 p-value = .0031 1/2 p-value = .0031 z z = -2.74 -z/2 = -1.96 © 2004 Thomson/South-Western 0 z/2 = 1.96 z = 2.74 Slide 35 Using Excel to Conduct a Two-Tailed Hypothesis Test Formula Worksheet 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 A B C Weight Sample Size 30 6.04 Sample Mean =AVERAGE(A2:A31) 5.99 Sample Std. Dev. =STDEV(A2:A31) 5.92 6.03 Lev. of Signif. 0.05 6.01 Crit. Value (lower) =NORMSINV(C5/2) 5.95 Crit. Value (upper) =NORMSINV(1-C5/2) 6.09 6.07 Hypoth. Value 6 6.07 Standard Error =C3/SQRT(C1) 5.97 Test Statistic =(C2-C9)/C10 5.96 p -Value =2*NORMSDIST(C11) 6.08 Conclusion =IF(C12<C5,"Reject","Do Not Reject") Note: Rows 14-31 are not shown. © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 36 Using Excel to Conduct a Two-Tailed Hypothesis Test Value Worksheet 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 A B Weight Sample Size 30 6.04 Sample Mean 6.1 5.99 Sample Std. Dev. 0.2 5.92 6.03 Lev. of Signif. 0.05 6.01 Crit. Value (lower) -1.960 5.95 Crit. Value (upper) 1.960 6.09 6.07 Hypoth. Value 6 6.07 Standard Error 0.0365 5.97 Test Statistic 2.739 5.96 p -Value 0.006 6.08 Conclusion Reject Note: Rows 14-31 are not shown. © 2004 Thomson/South-Western C Slide 37 Confidence Interval Approach to a Two-Tailed Test about a Population Mean Select a simple random sample from the population and use the value of the sample mean x to develop the confidence interval for the population mean . (Confidence intervals are covered in Chapter 8.) If the confidence interval contains the hypothesized value 0, do not reject H0. Otherwise, reject H0. © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 38 Confidence Interval Approach to a Two-Tailed Test about a Population Mean The 95% confidence interval for is x z / 2 n 6.1 1. 96(. 2 30 ) 6.1. 0716 or 6.0284 to 6.1716 Because the hypothesized value for the population mean, 0 = 6, is not in this interval, the hypothesis-testing conclusion is that the null hypothesis, H0: = 6, can be rejected. © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 39 Tests about a Population Mean: Small-Sample Case (n < 30) Test Statistic Known Unknown x 0 t / n x 0 t s/ n This test statistic has a t distribution with n - 1 degrees of freedom. © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 40 Tests about a Population Mean: Small-Sample Case (n < 30) Rejection Rule H0: Reject H0 if t > t H0: Reject H0 if t < -t H0: Reject H0 if |t| > t © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 41 p -Values and the t Distribution The format of the t distribution table provided in most statistics textbooks does not have sufficient detail to determine the exact p-value for a hypothesis test. However, we can still use the t distribution table to identify a range for the p-value. An advantage of computer software packages is that the computer output will provide the p-value for the t distribution. © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 42 Example: Highway Patrol One-Tailed Test about a Population Mean: Small n A State Highway Patrol periodically samples vehicle speeds at various locations on a particular roadway. The sample of vehicle speeds is used to test the hypothesis H0: < 65 The locations where H0 is rejected are deemed the best locations for radar traps. © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 43 Example: Highway Patrol One-Tailed Test about a Population Mean: Small n At Location F, a sample of 16 vehicles shows a mean speed of 68.2 mph with a standard deviation of 3.8 mph. Use = .05 to test the hypothesis. © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 44 One-Tailed Test about a Population Mean: Small-Sample Case (n < 30) Using the Test Statistic 1. Determine the hypotheses. H0: < 65 Ha: > 65 2. Specify the level of significance. 3. Select the test statistic. t = .05 x 0 s/ n ( is not known) 4. State the rejection rule. © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Reject H0 if t > 1.753 (d.f. = 16-1 = 15) Slide 45 One-Tailed Test about a Population Mean: Small-Sample Case (n < 30) Reject H0 Do Not Reject H0 0 © 2004 Thomson/South-Western 1.753 t (Critical value) Slide 46 One-Tailed Test about a Population Mean: Small-Sample Case (n < 30) Using the Test Statistic 5. Compute the value of the test statistic. t x 0 68.2 65 3.37 s / n 3.8/ 16 6. Determine whether to reject H0. Because 3.37 > 1.753, we reject H0. We are at least 95% confident that the mean speed of vehicles at Location F is greater than 65 mph. Location F is a good candidate for a radar trap. © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 47 Using Excel to Conduct a One-Tailed Hypothesis Test: Small-Sample Case Formula Worksheet A B C Vehicle 1 Speed Sample Size 16 2 69.6 Sample Mean =AVERAGE(A2:A17) 3 73.5 Sample Std. Dev. =STDEV(A2:A17) 4 74.1 5 64.4 Lev. of Signif. 0.05 6 66.3 Critical Value =TINV(2*C5,C1-1) 7 68.7 8 69.0 Hypoth. Value 65 9 65.2 Standard Error =C3/SQRT(C1) 10 71.1 Test Statistic =(C2-C8)/C9 11 70.8 p -Value =TDIST(C10, C1-1,1) 12 64.6 Conclusion =IF(C11<C5,"Reject","Do Not Reject") Note: Rows 13-17 are not shown. © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 48 Using Excel to Conduct a One-Tailed Hypothesis Test: Small-Sample Case Value Worksheet A B Vehicle 1 Speed Sample Size 16 2 68.2 Sample Mean 68.20 3 77.0 Sample Std. Dev. 3.80 4 71.0 5 64.2 Lev. of Signif. 0.05 6 66.8 Critical Value 1.753 7 68.3 8 65.9 Hypoth. Value 65 9 63.9 Standard Error 0.9490 10 71.1 Test Statistic 3.372 11 71.6 p -Value 0.0021 12 60.7 Conclusion Reject C Note: Rows 13-17 are not shown. © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 49 One-Tailed Test about a Population Mean: Small-Sample Case (n < 30) Using the pValue 4. Compute the value of the test statistic. t x 0 68.2 65 3.37 s / n 3.8/ 16 5. Compute the p–value. The p -value computed by Excel is .0021 6. Determine whether to reject H0. Because p–value = .0021 < = .05, we reject H0. © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 50 Summary of Test Statistics to be Used in a Hypothesis Test about a Population Mean Yes s known ? Yes n > 30 ? No Yes Use s to estimate s s known ? Yes x z / n No x z s/ n x z / n © 2004 Thomson/South-Western No Use s to estimate s x t s/ n Popul. approx. normal ? No Increase n to > 30 Slide 51 A Summary of Forms for Null and Alternative Hypotheses about a Population Proportion The equality part of the hypotheses always appears in the null hypothesis. In general, a hypothesis test about the value of a population proportion p must take one of the following three forms (where p0 is the hypothesized value of the population proportion). H 0 : p p0 H a : p p0 H 0 : p p0 H a : p p0 H 0 : p p0 H a : p p0 One-tailed (lower tail) One-tailed (upper tail) Two-tailed © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 52 Tests about a Population Proportion Test Statistic z p p0 p where: p © 2004 Thomson/South-Western p0 (1 p0 ) n Slide 53 Tests about a Population Proportion Rejection Rule H 0 : p p Reject H0 if z > z H0: p p Reject H0 if z < -z H0: pp Reject H0 if |z| > z © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 54 Example: NSC Two-Tailed Test about a Population Proportion For a Christmas and New Year’s week, the National Safety Council estimated that 500 people would be killed and 25,000 injured on the nation’s roads. The NSC claimed that 50% of the accidents would be caused by drunk driving. © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 55 Example: NSC Two-Tailed Test about a Population Proportion A sample of 120 accidents showed that 67 were caused by drunk driving. Use these data to test the NSC’s claim with = 0.05. © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 56 Two-Tailed Test about a Population Proportion Using the Test Statistic 1. Determine the hypotheses. H 0 : p .5 H a : p .5 (two-tailed test) 2. Specify the level of significance. 3. Select the test statistic. 4. State the rejection rule. © 2004 Thomson/South-Western z = .05 p p0 p Reject H0 if |z|> 1.96 Slide 57 Two-Tailed Test about a Population Proportion Using the Test Statistic 5. Compute the value of the test statistic. p p0 (1 p0 ) .5(1 .5) .045644 n 120 p p0 (67 /120) .5 z 1.278 p .045644 a common error is to use p in this formula © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 58 Two-Tailed Test about a Population Proportion Using the Test Statistic 6. Determine whether to reject H0. Because 1.278 > -1.96 and < 1.96, we cannot reject H0. © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 59 Using Excel to Conduct Hypothesis Tests about a Population Proportion Formula Worksheet 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 A B Drunk Driving Sample Size No Number of "Yes" Yes Sample Proportion No Yes Lev. of Signif. No Crit. Value (lower) Yes Crit. Value (upper) Yes No Hypoth. Value No Standard Error Yes Test Statistic Yes p -Value Yes Conclusion C 120 =COUNTIF(A2:A121,"Yes") =C2/C1 0.05 =NORMSINV(C5/2) =NORMSINV(1-C5/2) 0.5 =SQRT(C3*(1-C3)/C1) =(C3-C8)/C9 =2*(1-NORMSDIST(C11)) =IF(C12<C5,"Reject","Do Not Reject") Note: Rows 14-121 are not shown. © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 60 Using Excel to Conduct Hypothesis Tests about a Population Proportion Value Worksheet 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 A B Drunk Driving Sample Size No Number of "Yes" Yes Sample Proportion No Yes Lev. of Signif. No Crit. Value (lower) Yes Crit. Value (upper) Yes No Hypoth. Value No Standard Error Yes Test Statistic Yes p -Value Yes Conclusion C 120 67 0.5583 0.05 -1.960 1.960 0.5 0.0456 1.278 0.201 Do Not Reject Note: Rows 14-121 are not shown. © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 61 Two-Tailed Test about a Population Proportion Using the pValue 4. Compute the value of the test statistic. x 0 68.2 65 t 3.37 s / n 3.8 / 16 5. Compute the p–value. The p -value computed by Excel is .201 6. Determine whether to reject H0. Because p–value = .201 > = .05, we cannot reject H0. © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 62 End of Chapter 9 © 2004 Thomson/South-Western Slide 63