Download Environment and Security in Eastern Europe

Environment and Security in
Eastern Europe
Aleh Cherp, Ph.D., Central
European University
Alexios Antypas, Ph.D., Central
European University
Environment and Security Linkages
 Environment, Tensions, and Conflict
 Stability and Trust Through Environmental
Cooperation
 Interaction Between Environmental and Security
Policies and Measures
 Environment and Instability Aspects of Security
Environment, Tensions, and Conflict
 Environmental factors can aggravate existing
tensions between and within states
 Conflict arises over scarce natural resources, or
when distribution is unequal
Scarcity may be absolute or relative
Social processes through which resources are
distributed must be included in the environment and
security framework
 Violent conflict over resources is relatively rare,
most tensions remain “sub-critical”
Sub-critical tensions bread hostility, distrust, and an
unwillingness to co-operate
Stability and Trust through Environmental
Co-operation
 Co-operation over critical shared resources such
as water has proven to foster stability in interstate relations
 Co-operation over low-tension issues (“no
regrets” projects) can build trust
Especially appropriate for situations in which distrust
and tension prevail
 Legal regimes create an atmosphere of
predictability and dialogue, and co-operation in
critical areas such as information sharing and
early warning systems
Interaction between Environmental and
Security Policies and Measures
When elements of one policy area affects
another:
Environmental impacts of peacetime military
activities
Energy policy
Environmental policy integration in defence and
foreign affairs policies poses significant
opportunities
Environment and Instability Aspects of
Security
 Trends that undermine social stability and
therefore state stability
Rapid demographic change
Human health crises
Mass migration
 Environmental problems that undermine social
institutions
Over-exploitation of resources → decline of rural
economies
Environmental pollution → health problems, migration
Regional Context
 845,000 km2
 60 million inhabitants
 Wedged between
“East” and “West”
 Conflicts, tensions, and
transformations:
Transnistria, “Orange
Revolution”,
Governance in Belarus,
Crimea, energy security
issues
Security Issues in Eastern Europe
Geopolitical Context
 European Union interests include:
 Europeanization outside of the EU accession process
 “to make a particular contribution to stability and good
governance in our immediate neighbourhood and to promote a
ring of well-governed countries to the East of the European
Union….”
 EU-Ukraine Action Plan, harmonization of laws, continued
democratization and co-operation
 EU-Moldova Action Plan, co-operation in helping settle
Transnistria conflict
 Environment as priority to help “avoid conflicts over scarce
resources.”
 Russian interests include:
 Maintaining transit to and from Western and Central Europe
 Protecting Russian minorities
 Retaining political and economic influence
Economic and Demographic
Indicators
Environmental Legacies and Challenges
of Transition
 The effects of Chernobyl
 Soviet-era industrialization and
environmental “hot spots”
 Military legacies of the Sovietera
 Lack of attention to
environmental issues and
under-funding of state
institutions
 Intensive use of natural
resources
 Trade liberalization and
consumerism
 Environmental Sustainability
Index:
 Belarus: 47 out of 146 countries
 Moldova: 58 out of 146 countries
 Ukraine: 108 out of 146 countries
Interaction between Environment and
Security Factors
Water Resources and Key
Ecosystems
Environmental Hazards with Security
Implications
Key Environmental Issues with Security
Implications in Moldova
 Water quality/drinking water
 Most accessible groundwater hydrologically connected to
Dniester, of which 50% is contaminated
 Transboundary co-operation with Romania and Ukraine has
been developing well and has further potential
 Land degradation
 75% of Moldovan economy is linked to agriculture
 50% of agricultural lands are degrading
 Hazardous waste
 1700-3000 tonnes of pesticides stored at 340 sites of which 80%
are in poor condition and 25% pose transboundary pollution risks
 Transnistria
 Russian military depot at the Kolbasna rail station in Transnistria
still holds around 20,000 tonnes of weapons and ammunition
stockpiles, posing a severe environmental hazard
Security Issues with Environmental
Implications in Moldova
 Energy security
 98% of energy is imported, 70% of which is Russian natural gas
 Energy intensity of the economy is 3-4 times global average
 Poorly developed energy infrastructure
 Energy costs are 1/3+ of GDP
 Transnistria
 Largest power plants are located in Transnistrian region
 Source of water pollution; contains significant quantities of
hazardous wastes and experiences large-scale illegal disposal
 Transboundary co-operation on issues such as Dniester R.
management complicated by conflict
Environment and Security Issues in
Moldova
Water
Management
Tensions
Dniester
Co-operation
Prut, Dniester
Land and
Ecosystems
Stockpiles of
banned
pesticides;
weapons
Border natural
areas and
corridors
Interaction of
E & S Policies
and Measures
Disruption of
Institutions
Hazardous
Sites and
Activities
Stockpiles of
weapons
Drinking
water quality
& abundance
Land
degradation
Criteria for ENVSEC Interventions
Give high priority to actions likely to build
trust and foster mutual learning
Attempt to address more than one
Environment and Security theme in the
same actions
Avoid overlapping with other programmes
Draw on the unique capacity of the
ENVSEC Initiative to deal with complex
multidimensional issues
Summary of Issues
 The geo-political position of Eastern Europe strongly
affects the way security and environmental issues
interact in the region
 EE does not experience outright conflict but rather
tensions that can be exacerbated by unattended
environmental problems or calmed by co-operation over
the environment
 In the medium and long term the “East-West” divide,
population decline, economic restructuring, and energy
dependence will have the potential to heighten
transboundary and internal tensions and will keep
environment and security issues high on the political
agenda
Thank you !