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Commission of the UE Genedec project (FP6-502184) Rural Development Policy: Possible Impact on Agricultural Productivity in Old and New Member States Elisa Montresor Univeristy of Verona – Italy Francesco Pecci University of Verona - Italy Maria Sassi University of Pavia - Italy Importance of the analysis 1. Importance of the analysis Fostering and enabling policy and institutional environment Encouraging non-farm growth activity Encouraging agricultural productivity and competitiveness Rural Development Policy (2007-13) Strategic priorities Encouraging sustainable management of natural resources Improving social well-being, gender equity, managing risk, reducing vulnerability Importance of the analysis 1. Importance of the analysis The analysis of the territorial systems Relationship between local agricultural systems and local socio-economic systems Policy making process Impact of policy sensitive socio-economic and environmental variables on agriculture productivity The Rural Development Policy, Modulation and Cross-compliance Importance for the old and new Member States 1. Importance of the analysis 2. Object of the analysis Agricultural territorial systems within homogeneous socio-economic systems Impact of policy sensitive socio-economic environmental variables on agriculture productivity The CAP of regionalization? Object the analysis Spatial stationary and non-stationary parameters Groups of homogeneous regions Data processing chain 1. Importance of the analysis 2. Object of the analysis 5. Initial data set 4. Adjustment and integration 1. Initial data set 3. Data processing chain 6. AIC + multicollinearity 8a. Spatial Stationary parameters 7. Indicators for mixed GWRs 8b. Spatial Non-stationary parameters 9.Kohonen SOM classification 2. PCA 3. Local agricultural and socio-economic systems 10. Regionalization results 1. Importance of the analysis Indicators: analytical framework 2. Object of the analysis Environmental, food safety and animal welfare standards 3. Data processing chain 4. Indicators: analytical framework - Competitiveness - Environment andConsumers Rural development Country side Taxpayers - Quality of life and Diversification of Decoupling Rural areas Modulation Cross-compliance and good practices Farmers: - Competitiveness free to produce what - Multifunctionality the market needs - Sustainability Single farm payments Indicators 1. Importance of the analysis 205 regions EU-25 2. Object of the analysis 3. Data processing chain Demographic features Innovation and diversification 4. Indicators Agricultural productivity Socio-economic context Environmental sustainability Efficiency and competitiveness Results: Spatial Non-stationary Parameters 1. Importance of the analysis 2. Object of the analysis 3. Data processing chain 1. The variables affecting only locally the agricultural productivity are not only agricultural but also socio-economic and environmental variables 4. Indicators 5. Results: Nonstationary parameters Farmers age structure Agricultural environmental sustainability Overall Economic development Overall and rural labour market Infrastructure Demographic features 1. Importance of the analysis 2. Object of the analysis Results: Cluster analysis EU-25 Cluster 5 (11) – Economic development, demographic structure, social infrastructure, rural labour market 3. Data processing Cluster chain 3 (58) – Farmer age structure 4. Indicators Cluster 6 (21) – Part-time 5. Results: Nonlabour and farmers age stationary parameters structure 5.1. Results: Cluster 8 (21) – Economic Cluster analysis EU-25 development, labour market, agricultural environmental sustainability Cluster 7 (44) – Labour market Cluster 2 (20) – economic development, demographic structure, infrastructure, rural labour market and agricultural environmental sustainability Cluster 4 (18) – Infrastructures, rural labour market and agricultural environmental sustainability Cluster 1 (14) – Labour market and infrastructure 1. Importance of the analysis 2. Object of the analysis 3. Data processing chain Conclusions 1. Importance of the analysis 2. Object of the analysis 3. Data processing chain Relationship between local agricultural systems and local socio-economic systems 4. Indicators 5. Results: Nonstationary parameters Spatial coherence among groups of regions sharing 5.1. Results: Cluster analysis geographic borders and sometime EU-25 coincident with the reference State borders 6. Conclusions Variables affecting locally the agricultural productivity are not only agricultural but also socio-economic and environmental Great diversity between clusters in terms of profile