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Impact of urbanisation on water flow regimes and quality Dr. M. Hutchins and Dr. T. A. Warnaars contributions from James Miller, Scott McGrane and Xiaowei Liu NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology The UK Centre of excellence for research in the terrestrial & freshwater environments and their interactions with the atmosphere Our goal is to deliver solutions for environmental problems to achieve sustainability Our Science Strategy • Over 350 Scientists and support staff • UK National monitoring schemes including – Environmental Change – Greenhouse Gases – Water Flood/Flow – Air Quality – National Land use • POLLCURB investigates how water pollution relates to change in urban areas, in particular that brought about by population growth. Results will provide predictions of future water resources to help inform decision-making. • Focus on Thames basin Collaborators: POLL-CURB PROJECT • 3-year £900k project funded by the UK NERC Changing Water Cycle programme (May 2013 start) • Changes in Urbanisation and its Effects on Water Quantity and Quality from Local to Regional Scale • UK population will increase by 16% in next 20 years. Compare 2050 Thames water quality to present day? Wallingford 50 Increase in number of days per year in days per year Increaseconditions having undesirable 45 1. Climate model (Had-RM3) 40 35 2. Rainfall-runoff model (Future Flows) 30 25 20 15 An increase in number of days per year having undesirable water quality by 2050 (due to drier, sunnier, warmer summers) • Moreover, this assumes no change in population. Urban growth will put greater stress on water resources… • The projections will be refined in POLLCURB 0 DO BOD Temp 3. Water quality model (QUESTOR) • 10 5 Models linked together in sequence to evaluate effects of climate change chl-a -5 Case studies: towns of Swindon and Bracknell S S S S Treated sewage effluent Environmental data acquisition a) 1975* b) 1990 c) 2007 d) 2011 • Remote sensing imagery captures land-use change. • Water flows (since 1960s) and quality (since 1980s) • 2 years monitoring of: (i) logged hydroclimatology (15-min rainfall and discharge) and (ii) telemetric hourly water quality (YSI multi-parameter sonde). • Water quality: pH, turbidity, temperature, conductivity, ammonium and dissolved oxygen. Also, sonde used for monthly water quality surveys at 16 other sites Research approaches • Monitoring urban streams in 2 rapidly growing towns. • Satellite land-cover data and Ordnance Survey maps will train cellular automata land-use change models. • Water flow and water quality data will train biophysical models (rainfallrunoff, urban water management, suspended sediments, channel hydraulics/water quality). Part of Swindon From land cover change, a metric of fractional impervious cover drives a rainfall-runoff model to quantify changes in hydrological regime Urban water management modelling • • • Water demand Urban drainage, water supply and water quality (SWMM) Wastewater treatment, discharges to rivers (SSDIM – has been tested in small Chinese urban basins e.g. Shenzhen River) Research questions and model development 1. Has long-term urbanisation significantly altered the flow regime? 2. Can urban river pollution be determined by land cover data, measures of infiltration capacity and rainfall patterns readily available from national-level datasets? 3. How do water temperature, residence time and channel hydraulics influence the fate of pollutants downstream of urban areas? • Simplified upscaling to whole Thames basin. • At basin scale future scenarios will be defined by projections of population growth, urban development, water demand management, water treatment and climate inputs. • Future scenarios assessed using the meta-model and QUESTOR. Model representation of River Thames (QUESTOR) Model drivers: (1) Flow, temperature and quality data in (a) tributaries (b) effluents from sewage works, (2) Solar radiation (3) Weirs (4) Abstractions Upstream QUESTOR boundary CEH weekly water quality (2009 - ) Major urban areas outside London 2 Simulates flow routing, and pollution retention and release in short river reaches (c. 3 km) on a daily basis. 1 3 4 SWINDON LONDON 7 5 6 8 9 BRACKNELL Tidal limit 20 km Other acknowledgements OTHER CONTRIBUTORS Thomas Kjeldsen (Bath) Soon-Thiam Khu (Surrey) Simon Dadson (Oxford) Clare Rowland, Iwona Cisowska, Luisa Doughty, Yan Weigang (CEH) June Jones, Matt Loewenthal (EA) Steven Loiselle, Charlotte Hall, Richard Sylvester (Earthwatch) Banyu Putro (Royal Holloway) Contributing to Water Quality Legislation - WFD examined how multiple effects impact on managing freshwater ecosystems Integrated project on adaptive strategies to mitigate impacts of climate change on European freshwater ecosystems Restoring river ecosystems in Europe: the REFORM project will provide tools to support cost-effective implementation of restoration measures and monitoring WATCH: A Global Project •To integrate modelling of the water cycle into global and regional climate models •evaluate how the global water cycle and its extremes respond to future drivers of global change •develop a modelling and data framework to assess the future vulnerability of water as a resource Estrogen prediction in Yellow River using CEH GWAVA model • What are the likely impacts of increased urbanisation on river estrogen concentrations? • Currently ~50% of population STP connection • Natural flows successfully simulated in 1950s. More recent simulations highlight need to refine representation of water demand. Lijin Lanzhou Tongguan TONGGUAN Estimated flow 1800 1400 5.22% 27.1% 26.7% 1600 Flow (m3 /s) • Gwava: 50x50 km grid resolution. 9 flow gauges for model testing. Estrogen concentrations in 2008 • Estrogen loads based on: (i) Chinese effluent observations, or, (ii) excretion and removal rates based on UK data 2.14% RSD: 20.9% 4.6% 12.2% 1200 Measured flow 10.6% 18.3% 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 Year 1957 1958 1959 1960 Thank You