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Food Security and Animal Production Mark W. Rosegrant Director Environment and Production Technology Division Conference on “The Role of Animal Production in a Sustainable 21 st Century Global Food System”, organized by the Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources, The National Academies (National Research Council), The Washington Club, Washington, DC, November 9, 2010 Outline § Key Concerns for the Future of Livestock − Problems and Drivers − Livestock and Livelihoods − Consumption and Nutrition § Supply and Demand Policies for Sustainable Livestock Production § Reduced Meat Demand and Global Food Security § Key Conclusions INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Key Concerns for the Future of Livestock Problems and Drivers § How to achieve food security § How to maintain livelihoods § Protection and maintenance of ecosystems services § Reducing environmental impacts of livestock systems § Economic growth INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Livestock and Livelihoods § 3.4 billion hectares of pastureland − Compared to 1.6 billion ha cropland, 0.5 billion feed crops § $1.4 trillion asset value § Employs 1.3 billion people § Reduces risk for vulnerable communities − Livestock significant value in severe drought § Provides nutrients and traction for smallholder systems − Significant amount of N, P , K crucial for small farmers INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Consumption and Nutrition As people get richer they consume more animal products Source: Land commodities. http://www.landcommodities.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=main.dspInvestmentFundamentals http://www.landcommodities.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=main.dspInvestmentFundamentals INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Consumption and Nutrition Per capita meat consumption, 2000-2050 2000 Latin Am / Carib 2000-2050 58 N Am / Europe 19 83 East + South Asia / Pacific Subsaharan Africa 28 11 Central and W Asia / N Africa 24 13 20 0 4 11 20 40 60 80 100 kg/person per year INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Source: IFPRI IMPACT projections, business as usual, IPCC SRESB2 climate scenario, May 2009 Consumption and Nutrition Negative health impacts of high meat consumption § Colorectal, esophageal, liver, prostate and lung cancer § High saturated fat and cholesterol intake § Cardiovascular disease mortality § Type 2 diabetes § Obesity INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Consumption and Nutrition Nutrition benefits from increased meat consumption in developing countries § Addresses micronutrient and protein deficiencies (including iron, zinc, vitamin A and B12) § § Bolsters immune resilience and health High nutrient density − Efficient delivery for low income people INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Supply and Demand Policies for Sustainable Livestock Production Sustainability of livestock production can be enhanced § Management practices − Optimized diet, improved feed digestibility, water management, high quality grain concentrates § Technologies − Waste management, use of byproducts for energy production, recycling § Genetic resources − Breed improvement (drought/heat tolerance), conversion of feed to meat and milk, crop breeding INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Sustainability of livestock production can be enhanced § Infrastructure − Roads, processing – link farmers to markets (higher price, lower losses) § Markets and policy − Increase: water prices, carbon payments as incentives to GHG reductions, better waste regulation INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Solutions vary according to type of livestock production system Extensive mixed livestock and cropping systems § Combine intensification and environmental protection through integrated management § Technology transfer and development Source: http://www.fao.org/docrep/x5303e/x5303e09.htm INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Solutions vary according to type of livestock production system Livestock grazing / rangeland systems § Limited options for intensification – constraints on land capacity § Supplying other ecosystem goods and services § High potential: carbon sequestration through pasture management § Need carbon payments Source: http://www.kkl.org.il/kkl/english/main_subject/curb %20global%20warming/livestock%20grazing.htm INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Solutions vary according to type of livestock production system Intensive / industrialized livestock systems § Needed for meeting the growing demand of animal products § Challenges: − Source: http://www.nextgenerationfood.com/article/Acidhttp://www.nextgenerationfood.com/article/Acid-test/ − INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Limit negative environmental impacts through improved technology, regulation incentives Animal management and animal care Demand policies to reduce meat consumption in the more developed countries § Advocacy by institutions working on food policy issues § § Educational and public relations campaigns Promote menus with less meat in public sector institutions (cafeterias, schools, hospitals) § Taxation and subsidy policies to increase the cost of meat compared to other food products INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Reduced Meat Demand and Global Food Security Scenario Results Real world prices of meats (US$/mt) Source: IFPRI IMP ACT projections, business as usual, IPCC SRESB2 climate scenario, May 2009 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Scenario Results Real world prices of cereals (US$/mt) Source: IFPRI IMP ACT projections, business as usual, IPCC SRESB2 climate scenario, May 2009 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Scenario Results Total feed consumption of cereal (mil mt) Source: IFPRI IMP ACT projections, business as usual, IPCC SRESB2 climate scenario, May 2009 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Scenario Results Per capita food consumption of meat and cereal (kg/year) Source: IFPRI IMP ACT projections, business as usual, IPCC SRESB2 climate scenario, May 2009 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Scenario Results Calorie availability (kCal/capita/day) Source: IFPRI IMP ACT projections, business as usual, IPCC SRESB2 climate scenario, May 2009 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Scenario Results Malnourished children under age 5 (million) Source: IFPRI IMP ACT projections, business as usual, IPCC SRESB2 climate scenario, May 2009 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Key Conclusions Key Conclusions § Reduced meat consumption in developed countries provides small benefits in developing countries § Invest in improved breeds, technologies, management, markets § Tax, regulate, and pay to reduce negative environmental impacts INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE