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•Keynesian view •Discretionary versus non-discretionary fiscal policy •The automatic stabilizers •Fiscal policy to close a contractionary gap. •Fiscal policy to close an expansionary gap. •Problems with fiscal policy •Principles of taxation •The Federal Deficit and the National Debt The use of the taxing and spending powers of government to regulate aggregate expenditure, and thereby to stabilize the economy The economy needs to be stabilized. The economy can be stabilized. The economy should be stabilized. This is the Keynesian view This legislation established a responsibility for the federal government to promote “maximum employment, production, and purchasing power.” Discretionary fiscal policy is the deliberate manipulation of government purchases, taxation, and transfer payments to pursue macroeconomic goals such as full employment and price stability. The Bush tax stimulus package of 2008 and the Obama stimulus package of 2009 are examples of discretionary fiscal policy Federal Spending as a Percent of GDP, 1990-2007 2.8 2.6 7 2.4 6 2.2 5 2.0 4 3 90 92 94 96 Defense Spending 98 00 02 04 06 Non-Defense Spending Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Non-discretionary or “built-in” features of government spending and taxation that reduce fluctuations in disposable income, and thus consumption, over the business cycle. •Tax rates for various types of income are set by elected officials. Tax collections depend on the employment levels/incomes, profits, capital gains, retails sales, . . . •Elected officials establish eligibility requirements and support levels for needs-tested transfer payments—e.g., TANF, food stamps, and unemployment compensation. Actual government outlays for needs-tested transfer payments depend on (1) the number of persons eligible; and (2) the number of those eligible that actually file claims. As the economy enters a recession, federal revenues tend to decline while at the same time transfer payments rise. Thus recession brings about an automatic decline of net taxes (NT) Remember that: DI = Y - NT Y NT DI Y NT DI G, T Potential GDP T = TX - TR G Deficit 0 Balanced budget at full-employment Y1 Real GDP If a lack of aggregate expenditure is the problem, why not use the spending and taxing powers of the federal government to stimulate aggregate expenditure How Fiscal Policy Works Y GDP G 1 1 MPC MPM MTR AE AE2 AE1 G Full employment GDP 0 Y1 YFE Real GDP The preceding slide illustrates the type of expansionary fiscal policy that Keynesians recommend for recession. We will now use the AS-AD framework to illustrate contractionary fiscal policy. Modeling Contractionary Fiscal Policy Price Level Potential GDP AS AD2 AD1 0 Y1 Real GDP YF is full-employment (potential) GDP. AE AE’ AE •Increase in G •Decrease in NT a bNT I G ( X M ) Y YF Contractionary gap Real GDP (Y) 1. Policy lags 2. Permanent income Principles of Taxation •Horizontal equity: Tax code should be written so that those in the same economic circumstances pay the same amount in taxes. •Vertical equity: Tax code should be written so that those in different economic circumstances should pay an unequal amount in taxes. •Benefits received principle: Those who derive more benefits from government programs should pay more taxes. •Taxable income: Gross income - income exempt from taxes. Example: For single filers who use the 1040EZ: Gross Income: $35,000 Minus: Standard deduction 7,050 Equals: Taxable income $27,950 •Average tax rate (ATR): Tax payments as a percent of taxable income. •Marginal tax rate (MTR): The tax rate applied to the last dollar of taxable income. •Progressive tax: The proportion of taxable income taken in taxes increases as taxable income increases. •Regressive tax: The proportion of taxable income taken in taxes decreases as taxable income increases. •Proportional tax: The proportion of taxable income taken in taxes remains constant as taxable income increases. Needy By making the tax structure “progressive,” governments can make the after-tax distribution of income more equitable (or even). Affluent Federal personal Income Tax rates Under the 1993 Tax Reform Act (Married couple filing jointly) Total Taxable Income Marginal Tax Rate (%) $0 0% 0-36,900 36,901-89,150 15 28 89,151-140,000 31 140,001-250,000 36 250,000 and up 39.6 Average and Marginal Tax Rates under the Tax Reform Act of 1993 (for a couple with 2 children) Income $10,000 20,000 30,000 50,000 75,000 150,000 250,000 400,000 Tax $0 272 1,766 4,766 10,315 32,140 66,802 128,710 Ave. Tax Rate Marginal Tax Rate 0% 0% 1.4 15 5.9 15 9.5 15 13.8 28 21.4 31 26.7 36 32.2 39.6 Tax Brackets for 2003 under the 2001 Tax Reform Act 2003 Taxable Income Marginal Tax Rate $0-$12,000 10.0% $12,000-$47,500 15.0 $47,500-$114,650 27.0 $114,650-$174,700 30.0 $174,700-$311,950 35.0 Over $311,950 38.6 Source : Wall Street Journal Quick Facts about President Bush’s Tax Bill •The 39.6% tax rate reduced to 33% •The 36% tax rate reduced to 33% •The 31% rate reduced to 25% •The 28% rate reduced to 25% •The current 15% bracket is retained over most of its range •A new 10% bracket applies to the lowest ¼ of 15% range. •Maximum rate on capital gains reduced from 28 to 15 percent. President Bush comments (wav) Fun Fact: Of the $477 billion in federal tax cuts over 10 years, 52 percent go to the top 1 percent of households (average income: $343,000). Source: Center for Tax Justice The Bush tax cuts are scheduled to expire in 2010. Senator McCain favors renewing them— even though he voted against the Bush tax bill in 2001. Senators Clinton and Obama support raising marginal rates on capital gains and also for high income families. Assume a 7.13 percent excise tax on groceries, gasoline, cigarettes, and liquor (1) Family Income (2) Spending for items subject to excise tax (3) = (2)/(1) (4) (5)= (4)/(1) Greens $27,000 $16,200 .60 $1,188 4.4% Jones 64,000 25,600 .40 1,871 2.9 Lemons 270,000 40,500 .15 2,961 1.0 Excise Tax Paid ATR Moral of the story: Low income families tend to spend a greater proportion of their income on items subject to excise taxes. Hence excise taxes tend to be regressive. The Arkansas state sales tax on groceries was reduced from 6 percent to 3 percent effective July 1, 2007 In the case of a federal deficit, the Treasury must borrow. The national debt is the accumulated borrowing of the federal government in all previous fiscal years, minus what has been repaid For updated information, check the National Debt Clock Is a large national debt a bad thing? Arguments against a large national debt include: •The “burden on future generations” argument. •A large national debt means that a significant share of federal spending must be allocated for interest payments—leaving less for other priorities. •A large national debt makes the U.S. too dependent on foreign financial inflows. •Federal borrowing “crowds out” private sector borrowing units—i.e., firms and households. “[W]e (the U.S.) owe $5.7 trillion in debt and if we don’t pay it off, our children and our grandchildren are going to have to.” Congressman Marion Berry, in a speech to the Jonesboro Lions Club on April 16, 2001. Interest payments as a Percent of Federal Expenditures (Annual) 18 16 14 P e r c e n t 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1965 1970 1975 www.economagic.com 1980 1985 Year 1990 1995 2000 As long as the debt grows by the same percentage as nominal GDP, the ratios of debt to GDP will remain constant. In this case, the government can continue to pay interest on its rising debt without increasing the average tax rate in the economy. Click image below to enlarge. National Debt Graph (2007 Budget data) Who Owns the National Debt? Agencies and Trusts 1814 / 26% Privately Owned 3342 / 48% Foreign Inves tors 1271 / 18% Fed. Reserve Banks 463 / 7% Source: Federal Reserve