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Journal of Emerging Issues in Economics, Finance and Banking (JEIEFB)
An Online International Research Journal (ISSN: 2306-367X)
2015 Vol: 4 Issue 2
Impact of Nigerian Capital Market Capitalisation on the
Growth of the Nigerian Economy
Zainab Dabo,
Faculty of Social and Management Sciences,
Department of Business Admistration,
Kaduna State University, Nigeria.
E-mail: [email protected]
___________________________________________________________________________
Abstract
The study examines the impact of capitalization of the Nigerian capital market and it’s on the
growth of the Nigerian economy. The paper employs annual time series data from 2001 to
2012(12 year period) collected from various issues of Central Bank of Nigeria’s Statistical
Bulletin and Annual Report and statements of Accounts of Nigeria Stock Exchange. A
regression analysis was adopted in computing the interaction between the capitalization of the
Nigerian capital market and Nigeria’s economic growth. The empirical results showed that,
there was unidirectional causality between capitalization of the stock market and economic
growth, which ran from economic growth (GDP) to capitalization of the stock market (MCAP)
at 5 percent significant level. The paper concludes that the Nigerian capital market needs to
create more confidence to investors, especially in terms of transparency and accountability, for
sustainable and increasing capitalization necessary for sustainable economic growth in the
country. Furthermore, the paper recommends expansion of the Nigerian Stock Market by the
government creating an enabling investable environment, that will increase both the volume of
transactions and number of stocks traded in the market. This will improve their ability to
mobilize resources and efficiently allocate them to the most productive sectors of the economy.
___________________________________________________________________________
Keywords: Capitalisation, Economy, Growth, Stock Market, Sustainable.
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Journal of Emerging Issues in Economics, Finance and Banking (JEIEFB)
An Online International Research Journal (ISSN: 2306-367X)
2015 Vol: 4 Issue 2
1. Introduction
Financial system has long been recognized to play an important role globally in bringing
about bringing about economic development of different countries. This recognition dates back
to the period of the 1950s. For instance, researchers such as Goldsmith (1955), Cameron (1967),
Mckinnon (1973) and Shaw (1973), have demonstrated that financial system could be a catalyst
of economic growth and sustainable development if it is well harnessed and developed. On the
other hand Fergusson (2006) views financial markets as the single sector most important market
in which many economic institutions exist. This is because of the financial link and contract in
the sector which has the channels of short and long term sources of fund which gives rise to a
better consolidated financial market.
Reforms (including banking sector consolidation) are predicated upon the need for
reorientation and repositioning of an existing status quo in order to attain an effective and
efficient level of operation. There could be fundamental bottlenecks that may inhibit the
functioning of institutions for growth and the achievement of core objectives in the drive
towards enhancing and sustaining the economic and social imperatives of human endeavour
(Ajayi, 2005).
Soludo (2004) considers the main objective of banking sector reforms, for instance, as
guaranteeing an efficient and sound financial system. The reforms are designed to enable the
banking system develop the required flexibility that is needed to support the economic
development of the nation by efficiently performing its functions as the pivot of financial
intermediation. Lemo (2005) opines that banking sector reforms were to ensure a diversified,
strong and reliable banking industry where there is safety of depositors’ money and position
banks to play active developmental roles in the Nigerian economy.
Soludo,(2004) poised on the Nigeria’s banks reformation
programme to be the
transformation exercise of which among others the minimum requirement for capital base of
banks to be N25 billion with a deadline mark to be end of December, 2005. In line with this,
consolidation of banking institutions, especially through mergers and acquisitions was required,
which apparently used the Nigerian Capital market as the platform for the recapitalization
activities of the banks which ultimately increase the capitalization level of the Nigerian Stock
Exchange itself.
This development necessitated banks to consider ways through which they could achieve
the stated objective of increasing their capital base to the authority’s requirement. In their effort
they embarked on different strategies which included the increase in capital base by initial
public offer (IPO), sale of their assets, Mergers and Acquisitions and reducing their stake in
other investments. This is done by adopting two or more of the above stated strategies. This
reformation programme on banks with a link to the impact of the Nigeria capital market
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Journal of Emerging Issues in Economics, Finance and Banking (JEIEFB)
An Online International Research Journal (ISSN: 2306-367X)
2015 Vol: 4 Issue 2
sustained capitalization on the Nigeria’s economic growth is the main issue of discussion in
this paper.
Many researchers have focused on financial sector reforms and economic growth, towards
improving the body of knowledge but this paper is focusing on the capitalisation of Nigerian
capital market and the overall economic growth. It is at this back drop that research seeks to
evaluate the impact of the Nigerian capital market capitalisation strategy on the growth the
economy. The paper tests the impact of capitalisation of the capital market on the Nigerian
economy via the Nigerian Stock Market as motivated by the consolidation exercises that were
conducted in the banking, insurance and some other businesses in the recent past in Nigeria.
The study covers a period of 10 years (2000-2010). This period is the period when the entire
financial system (banking, insurance, etc) witnesses transformation in the form of financial and
institutional restructuring, policy, and regulatory and legal frameworks.
The paper is divided into five sections with the introduction above as section one. The second
section of the paper reviews literature on consolidation of banks and financial intermediaries
across the world. The third section is on the methodology. Section four presents and discusses
the results obtained, while section five concludes the paper.
2. Literature Review
In developing countries, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, financial markets are
dominated by commercial banks, which have not been reliable sources of long-term financing
and also non-bank sources of medium and long-term financing are generally underdeveloped.
The short-term nature of commercial banks’ assets and liabilities as well as regulatory reserve
requirements in many countries render the (banks) incapable of supplying long-term capital
(Edward, 2004). Therefore, the need becomes necessary to inject funds through different forms
of capital formation. This type of financial sector reforms is adhered by many countries when
faced with banking liquidity and other related problems.
The Nigerian financial sector reform encompasses all facets of the Nigerian economic
system that deals with the funding of the economy. The broad objectives of the financial sector
reforms are to promote financial savings, reliable payment system, increase the level of
domestic investment by providing effective intermediation between lenders and borrowers and
diversifying risk. In order to achieve these objectives, measures that were adopted include the
reform of the financial structure, monetary policy reform, foreign exchange market reforms,
liberalization of capital movement, and capital market reforms. The capital market institutions
in particular are in the position to encourage investment, as investors are able to borrow funds
and invest more than they would have done without such institutions Babalola and
Adegbite,(2000).
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Journal of Emerging Issues in Economics, Finance and Banking (JEIEFB)
An Online International Research Journal (ISSN: 2306-367X)
2015 Vol: 4 Issue 2
The reform in the Nigerian Financial sector facilitated to develop a reliable sector that will
revolve around to emerge an enabling environment which will allow competition to flourish.
Ajayi (2005) considers the banking sector reforms to be spurred by the requirement to deepen
the financial sector and reposition it for growth, at the same time integrating it into the global
financial architecture. This will evolve a banking sector that is consistent with regional
integration basics which fits into best international practices of banking system.
Deccan (2004) views reforms in the banking industry to be aimed at addressing issues such as
governance, risk management and operational inefficiencies, with the vortex of the reforms to
be around in forming up capitalisation. This had gone in line of reformation programme which
the banking system in Nigeria witness in the last decade. Capitalization is an important
component of reforms in the Nigeria financial sector, owing to the fact that effect is both on
banks and the Nigerian Stock Market. This necessitated banks a strong capital base that will
have the ability to absolve losses arising from non performing liabilities which will save guard
against banks becoming distress. Attaining the capitalization requirements may be achieved
through consolidation of existing banks or raising additional funds through the capital market
(Adegbaju and Olokoyo 2008). In views of Pat and James,(2010) they identified capital market
to be an institute that contributes to the socio-economic growth and development of emerging
economies, this is in line with Nigeria’s urge to build a capital market that will participate in
accelerating the growth of the economy. Alile,(1997) posits on the development of capital
market to be made possible through some of the vital roles played such as channelling
resources, promoting reforms to modernize the financial sectors, financial intermediation
capacity to link deficit to the surplus sector and a veritable tool in mobilization and allocation
savings among competitive uses which are critical to the growth and efficiency of the economy.
Soludo (2004) posits on banking sector reforms as an action which was done as due to low
capitalization of the banks that made them less able to finance the economy, and more prone to
unethical and unprofessional practices. These practices include, poor loan quality, of up to 21%
of shareholders’ funds which when compared with the 1%–2% in Europe and America (as at
that time), and this had made Nigerian banks prone to have liquidity problems. In addition also
to the practices are overtrading in banking business by abandoning the true function of banking
to focus on quick profit ventures such as trading in foreign exchange dealings and tilting their
funding support in favour of import-export trade instead of manufacturing, heavily relaying on
unstable public sector funds for their deposit base among others.
In a study developed by Nyong,(1997) in adopting the use of aggregate index of Stock
market measurement variables to determine the of the market in relation to economic growth
in the long-run in Nigeria. The study employed a time series data from 1970 to 1994. Four
measures of capital market development-ratio of market capitalization to GDP (in %), ratio of
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Journal of Emerging Issues in Economics, Finance and Banking (JEIEFB)
An Online International Research Journal (ISSN: 2306-367X)
2015 Vol: 4 Issue 2
total value of transactions on the main stock exchange to GDP (in %), the value of equities
transactions relative to GDP and listing were used. The four measures were combined into one
overall composite index of capital market development using principal component analysis. It
was found that the capital market development is negatively and significantly correlated with
the long-run growth in Nigeria. Also a study conducted by Ewan et al. (2009) appraised the
impact of the capital market efficiency on the economic growth of Nigeria using time series
data from 1961 to 2004.They found that the capital market in Nigeria has the potential of growth
inducing but it has not contributed meaningfully to the economic growth of Nigeria because of
low market capitalization, low absorptive capitalization, illiquidity, misappropriation of funds
among others.
On the other hand the examination conducted by Levine and Zervos (1996) on whether
there is a strong empirical association between stock market and long run economic growth
development. The study used pooled cross-country time-series regression of forty-one countries
from 1976 to 1993 to evaluate this association. The study goes in line with that of DemirgüçKunt and Levine (1996) by conglomerating measures such as stock market size, liquidity, and
integration with world markets, into index of stock market development. The finding indicates
an existence of a strong correlation between the overall stock market development and longrun economic growth. This means that the result is consistent with the theories that imply a
positive relationship between stock market development and economic growth.
Demirguc-kunt and Levine (2003) argument on the recapitalization banks through mergers
and acquisitions as a motive which increases banks’ concentration, Stock market performance
and these goes hand-in- hand with efficiency and improvements in the financial system. But
Boyd and Runkle (1993), and Imala (2005) buttressed this argument. They stressed further that
consolidated banking system enhances profits efficiency, and lower bank fragility not only
efficiency. More importantly, high profits arising from this provides a buffer against adverse
shocks and increases the franchise value of the banks. Turning to the effectiveness of
recapitalization and its overall economic implications, Schumpter (1934), Bayraktar and Wang
(2006), King and Levine (1993) have examined relationship between banking sector and
economic growth or financial sector development and economic growth, in which these views
had contention among the economist.
For Schumpter (1934) views the banking sector to be a stimulant in economic growth as
the banks have the way they play the role between of those who wish to form new combinations
and the possessors of productive means. While Bayraktar and Wang (2006) posits on banking
sector and economic growth to have direct and in direct effect on the economy through the
combination of improving access to financial services and the efficiency of the financial
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Journal of Emerging Issues in Economics, Finance and Banking (JEIEFB)
An Online International Research Journal (ISSN: 2306-367X)
2015 Vol: 4 Issue 2
intermediaries. He based these as both views have a lowering a cost of finance in which is a
stimulant on capital and economic growth.
Raghbendra,(2003) assessed the theory which maintains that financial development as
determinant of economic growth. According to the proposition of the school of thoughts he
followed, making an argument that financial development is a precondition for economic
growth while another argument was on the financial system that is so sophisticated which helps
to strengthen the atmosphere for rapid economic growth provided that there are no other
hindrance to economic development. The theoretical expositions done so far indicate that the
role of financial sector reform or development in stimulating economic growth is controversial.
Because, the role of finance in economic growth is an empirical one and also the reform of the
financial sector as an attempt to achieve financial development may attract cost. Literalised
views focus on financial sector reforms and economic growth, but towards improving the body
of knowledge this paper is focusing on capital market ecapitalisation and economic growth in
Nigeria. This was motivated by the need to provide a study on the link between the
recapitalization of banks in Nigeria, which led to activities in the capital market and therefore
leading to activity in the economy. Since the two players of financial sector are involved.
Aurangzeb (2012) investigates the contributions of banking sector in the economy of
Pakistan by using ordinary least square and granger causality test. The use of the test confirms
the bidirectional causal relationship of deposits, advances and profitability with economic
growth. In the views of Bakare,(2000) he defines capitalization rate as the discount rate used to
determine the present value of future earnings. It is one of the major determinants of the market
size of any stock exchange. The size of the market capitalization and its growth rate pose a
major influence on the growth and development of the economy. Moreover consolidation
recreated the Nigerian capital market by stimulating activities in both primary and secondary
through increase in aggregate market capitalisation and new issues of bank stocks.
Bitzenis and Misic(2008) investigated and made some evaluation on the banking reforms
in Serbia by using surveyed data results. The study uses the approach of pre and post performance through many factors which are relevant to reformation of banking systems. The
study concludes the different problems and challenges faced by the system but reforms in the
industry are positive with growth of the economy. Contrary to this, Malik(2010) posits that
banking industry of Pakistan has challenges which hinders it’s growth. Malik’s conclusion was
based on an increase on cost of borrowings, high risk of investment local currency
depreciation(Rupees) and low return on investment all as a result of financial crisis that affect
the global economy. A similar study conducted by Nzue(2006) who investigated the
relationship between the development of Ivorian Stock Market and the country’s economic
performance. He employed the stock market control variables which the results reveal that
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Journal of Emerging Issues in Economics, Finance and Banking (JEIEFB)
An Online International Research Journal (ISSN: 2306-367X)
2015 Vol: 4 Issue 2
there is a long-run relationship between the Gross domestic product and stock market with a
uni-directional causality running from the market development and economic growth.
While a model which was also specified by Balogun, (2007) was more expansive and included
money supply, minimum rediscount rates, private sector credit, ratio of banking sector credit
to government, ratio of stock market capitalization to credit to the private sector, and exchange
rates.
Adegbaju, and Olokoyo, (2008) poised on the issue of capitalization to be a major reform
objective; and defining capitalization literarily to mean increase on the amount of long term
finances used in financing the organization. They reviewed the capitalization process to entail
an increase in the debt stock of the company or issuing additional shares through existing
shareholders or new shareholders or a combination of the two. It could even take the form of
merger and acquisition or foreign direct investment. Whichever form it takes the end result is
that the long term capital stock of the organization is increased substantially to sustain the
current economy trend in the global world. Asedionlen (2004) opines on recapitalization as an
issue which may raise liquidity in short term but will not guaranty a conducive macroeconomic
environment required to ensure high asset quality and good profitability’’ Ezrim and
Muoghahi,(2004) examined the effect of financial sector reforms on commercial banks
operations in Nigeria by making a comparison of two decades. All literatures covered use
financial sector which comprises of banks and other financial institutions including insurance
companies. This paper examines the Capital Market capitalisation as a result of recapitalisation
exercise of banks in 2005 and its impact of growth on the economy.
3. Methodology
The population of this study is the Nigerian financial system with its contribution to
Nigerian economy. Although, the financial system comprises of money market and the capital
market, but the population covers the deposit money banks and the capital market. Therefore
the research is focusing on deposit money banks and the Nigerian Stock Exchange with its
contribution to Nigerian economy after the recapitalisation exercise of banks. The paper
obtained data from several sources; this included the annual statistical Bulletin of the Central
Bank of Nigeria, the Stock market quarterly and annual report of the consolidated banks. It
should be noted that the recapitalisation exercise of banks had affected the banks to the extent
that it has reduced their number from 89 banks to 25 mega banks on the Nigerian capital market.
Along the period covered by the paper, a merger between Stanbic bank and IBTC took place.
This brought the total number of banks under the period of review to be 21 in number. The data
collected for a period of 12 years from 2001 to 2012.
The model specifies on the socio-economic development of the economy by using the proxy of
gross domestic product which significantly influenced by capital market indices (market
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Journal of Emerging Issues in Economics, Finance and Banking (JEIEFB)
An Online International Research Journal (ISSN: 2306-367X)
2015 Vol: 4 Issue 2
capitalisation, new issues, value of transaction and banks total assets). In other words economic
growth proxied by GDP is significantly influenced by the capital and money market indices
which are proxied by the market capitalisation, new issues, value of transactions and banks total
assets. Also the use of Granger test was to show the causal relationship.
GDP = Gross Domestic Product (Dependent Variable), MCAP = Market capitalization,
(Independent Variable), TNI = Total New Issues (Independent Variable), VLS = Total value of
transactions (Independent Variable), BTA = Bank Total Assets, µ = Disturbance Term, a =
Intercept, a1 – a4 = coefficient of the independent variables.
4. Results and Discussions
The empirical analysis is presented in this section with the presentation of the unit root tests
of the variables used in the analysis. In the first table, the estimates of the ADF are presented.
The result confirmed that all the variable (market capitalization, Total new issues, Value of
transactions, listed equities and government stock) were stationary at levels, except Bank total
asset and gross domestic product that became stationary after first difference since the series
here integrated of order one i.e. I (1). The optimal lag leg length, which is a guide for model
selection are reported in column two and where selected on the basis of Schwardz criterion,
which provides a basis for the test for co-integration relationships among the stationary series.
Variable
Lag
GDP
MCAP
TNI
VLS
BTA
LEGS
1
1
0
0
0
0
ADF
stationery
-5.9352
-4.8154
-4.6322
-5.5213
-5.6312
-3.5312
Table: 1
Level
1st Diff.
-3.0263
-3.0416
-3.0211
-2.0403
-2.0403
-3.0213
-3.0613
-3.0341
Order of
stationery
1(1)
1(0)
1(0)
1(0)
(1)
1(0)
Remark
Stationery
Stationery
Stationery
Stationery
Stationery
Stationery
For the causality test reported in table two, both market capitalization and total new issues
have a unidirectional causal relationship with GDP. It should be noted that the causality runs
from GDP to the two variables at 5 percent level of significant. Although, a weak unidirectional
causality was found between value of transaction and GDP, running from GDP to value of
transaction at 10 percent level of significant. Also bank total asset was found to granger with
market capitalization, which is very strong at 5 percent significant level, while a bi-directional
causality exists between value of transaction and total new issue that is very strong at 5 percent
significant level.
The granger causality result is presented in table two below. It shows that there is
bidirectional causation between GDP and bank total assets BTA and a unidirectional between
the GDP and the market capitalization. All other variables have no significant causation with
the GDP except for listed equities and government stock that has a reverse relationship.
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Journal of Emerging Issues in Economics, Finance and Banking (JEIEFB)
An Online International Research Journal (ISSN: 2306-367X)
2015 Vol: 4 Issue 2
Table 2: Granger Causality test
Null Hypothesis
Obs
F-statistics
MCAP does not Granger Cause GDP
21
2.82021
GDP does not Granger Cause MCAP
1.74312
probability
0.05070
0.12301
TNI does not Granger Cause GDP
GDP does not Granger Cause TNI
21
0.00127
0.53280
0. 05210
0. 53401
VLS does not Granger Cause GDP
GDP does not Granger Cause VLS
21
0.21761
0.32132
0.23910
0.05421
BTA does not Granger Cause GDP
GDP does not Granger Cause BTA
21
2.53101
3.03250
0.03421
0.53401
LEGS does not Granger Cause GDP
GDP does not Granger Cause LEGS
21
2.31291
0.24911
0.05231
0.58761
The regression result reveals that there is strong systematic variation in the dependent
variable as explained by the five independent variables i.e. Market Capitalization (MCAP),
total New issues ( TNI), Value of transaction (VLT), Bank total asset (BTA) and Listed Equities
and Government Stocks (LEGS) . The F –value is significant at 5% level of significance
showing that there is a linear relationship between GDP and five independent variables.
What one had deduced from this discussion is that, the economy responds favorably to
measure taken to increase total listing of equity and government stock in the Nigerian Stock
market. The result is a true reflection of the Nigerian economy and the performance of the
Nigerian stock exchange. During the banking consolidation in 2005, a huge amount capital
were mobilizes into the economy through initial public offering (IPO) by most banks.
Unfortunately, these funds were not properly channeled into the productive sector and most
international protocol in investor divested their funds as soon as return of investment collapsed
due to the financial meltdown.
Again, the negative impact of value of transactions (VLT) could be attributed to the shallow
nature of Nigerian stock exchange. The market is yet to be attractive to big-ticket local and
international institutional investors. That will inject substantial fund into the stock market.
Therefore, the study or findings agree with Ariyo and Adelegun (2005) and Ewah et al (2009)
who found that the capital market in Nigeria has not contributed meaningfully to the economic
growth of Nigeria due to low market capitalization, small market size, few listed Securities and
low volume of transactions, low absorptive capacity, Liquidity etc. Also our result supports
Demirgue- kunt (1996) and Harris (1997) who found no hard evidence and strong positive
relationship between stock market and economic growth.
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Journal of Emerging Issues in Economics, Finance and Banking (JEIEFB)
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2015 Vol: 4 Issue 2
5. Conclusion
This paper evaluated the impact of the capital market capitalisation strategy on the growth
and development of the Nigerian Economy. The paper tested the significance of recapitalisation
of capital market and the impact on the Nigerian economy. The study covers the period of
12years (2001-2012). This period was the period when the entire financial system witness
transformation in the form of financial and institutional restructuring, policy, and regulatory
and legal framework. The evidence provided in this study based on the empirical findings,
showed that stock market has positive effect on economic growth in Nigeria. The Nigerian
stock market is no exception to other developing countries which are working towards
reforming and deepening their financial systems through the expansion of its stock markets in
order to improve their ability to mobilize resources and efficiently allocate them to the most
productive sectors of the economy so as to enhance economic growth. Although, during the
period of study the market had faced exogenous and endogenous problems that some were
controlled and others weren’t, then there is the need for strict compliance with the regulatory
and supervisory framework governing the markets. A number of indicators like the size of the
Stock market, volumes of trade, market capitalization, banks’ total assets, and above all the
GDP are used to show how the market has grown over the time. As indicated by the current
trends, the market seems to be saddled with low liquidity and slow growth in listings. The
market is seen as facing a lot of challenge in its development and growth so it is crucial that the
policies related to the market should be given a serious and accelerated attention. The paper
concludes that the Nigerian capital market needs to create more confidence to investors,
especially in terms of transparency and accountability, for sustainable and increasing
capitalization necessary for sustainable economic growth in the country. Furthermore, the paper
recommends expansion of the Nigerian Stock Market by the government creating an enabling
investable environment, that will increase both the volume of transactions and number of stocks
traded in the market. This will improve their ability to mobilize resources and efficiently
allocate them to the most productive sectors of the economy
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