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Fall, 2010 ELEMENTARY STATISTICS Instructor: Michael Sullivan Phone: (815) 280-7706 E-mail: [email protected] OFFICE: 06 North Campus Office Hours: MW M T W 7:30 – 8:00 am 1:30 pm – 3 pm 12:30 pm – 2 pm (online) 12:30 pm – 1:20 pm By Appointment Course Description: This course is an introduction to the fundamental principles and procedures of elementary statistical methods, including a study of frequency distribution, measures of central tendency, probability, statistical decision-making, hypothesis testing, estimation and prediction. Prerequisite: A grade of C or higher in Math 098, Math 095 or equivalent Required Material: 1. Statistics Informed Decisions Using Data 3/e by Michael Sullivan, III 2. A MyMathLab/MyStatLab access code 3. A TI-83 or TI-84 Plus Graphing Calculator Attendance: Attendance is absolutely essential in order to succeed in this course. Therefore, attendance will be taken daily. If a class is missed, it is your responsibility to determine the material that was covered. Any student that misses more than 2 classes will be dropped from the class. Course Objectives: Upon completion of the course, the student will be able to do the following: 1. 2. 3. Understand the design of the experiment Recognize appropriate sampling methods Interpret statistical data from histograms and frequency polygons, and construct such graphs 4. Calculate measures of central tendency for data 5. Calculate measures of dispersion for data 6. Calculate standard scores, percentiles, and quartiles 7. Construct and interpret box plots and stem-and-leaf plots 8. Apply probability rules for union, intersection, and complementary events 9. Determine whether a given pair of events is independent 10. Estimate probabilities using simulations 11. Find mean, variance, and standard deviation for given discrete probability distributions 12. 13. 14. 15. Calculate probabilities of events using binomial distributions Compute conditional probabilities Find probabilities for binomial random variables using the normal approximation Use the Central Limit Theorem to determine the probability that a sample mean will fall within a specified interval given the population mean and standard deviation, and a level of confidence 16. Calculate confidence intervals for a population mean given a sample size, mean, standard deviation, and level of confidence 17. Determine minimum sample size in estimating µ given a margin of error, standard deviation, and level of significance 18. Calculate confidence intervals for a proportion given a sample’s size, proportion, and a level of significance 19. Determine a minimum sample size in estimating a population proportion given a margin of error and a level of significance 20. Calculate Type I errors and define Type II errors 21. Formulate null and alternative hypotheses for testing claims about population means (one and two-tailed); to perform such tests using t-distributions at a given level of significance 22. Use P-values in hypothesis testing 23. Formulate null and alternative hypotheses for testing claims about proportions (one and two-tailed); to perform such tests using a normal distribution and a given level of significance 24. Formulate null and alternative hypotheses concerning the equality of the means of two populations for both paired and unpaired data; to determine the appropriate test and perform such a test for given sample data 25. Calculate confidence intervals and conduct hypotheses for the difference of two population means given sample means, sample sizes, sample variances, margin of error, and confidence level 26. Formulate null and alternative hypotheses for testing claims about equality of two proportions; to perform such tests using a normal distribution and a given level of significance. 27. Calculate a confidence interval for the difference of two population proportions given data from two samples, a margin of error, and a level of confidence 28. Calculate the linear correlation coefficient for a set of pairs of values for two random variables; to determine whether the coefficient is significant at a given level 29. Determine the equation of the regression line for a given set of data pairs and to use this equation to predict the value of one random variable given the value of the other 30. Test the assumptions of the least squares regression model using residual analysis 31. Test paired data for outliers and influential observations 32. Use the simple linear regression equation and correlation coefficient to determine prediction intervals for y, explained variation, unexplained variation, coefficient of determination, and standard error of estimate 33. Test claims about expected frequencies in multinomial experiments using a chisquare distribution 34. Test the independence of two random variables using a chi-square distribution 35. Test the equality of three or more population means using one-way analysis of variance using equal sample sizes and unequal sample sizes 36. Use Minitab or Excel to analyze data 37. Use a graphing calculator to analyze data- Suggested calculator applications include: drawing histograms; finding measures of central tendency; performing simulations to give approximate values for probabilities; drawing box plots; histograms, normal probability plots and scatter diagrams; using the binomial probability formula; finding z values from a given area or probability; calculating test statistics and confidence intervals for data sets; determining correlation and regression; calculating the chi-square test statistic for multinomial experiments; calculating analysis of variance; constructing a control chart Homework: Homework will be assigned each class. You are to attempt the problems assigned and we will discuss them the following class meeting. If you wish to discuss a problem during class, please put the section and problem number on the front board in the upper right hand corner so I know which problems to discuss. In addition to suggested exercises from the text, there is homework to be completed in MyStatLab. This homework is worth 100 points toward your final grade. Problems can be worked on until a correct answer is obtained so there is no excuse for not getting 100/100 points! StatCrunch: StatCrunch is an online data analysis tool and much more. In StatCrunch, you will be asked to write short reports with supporting statistical analysis. In addition, you will be asked to write a reaction to reports generated by your peers. There will be approximately 5 reports throughout the semester, with each report worth 20 points. Grading Policy: Your grade will consist of MyStatLab homework, three exams, the StatCrunch reports, 50 participation points, and an in-class final exam. The StatCrunch will be worth 100 points, the MyStatLab homework is worth 100 points, each exam is worth 100 points and the final exam will be worth 150 points. The final exam can replace your lowest test score. Exams: There will be three exams plus a comprehensive final exam. Formulae and Tables will be given with all exams. Please bring your TI-83 or TI-84 Plus calculator for all exams. Each exam is worth 100 points and the final exam is worth 150 points. All exams are given in the classroom. Academic Assistance: If you need additional help, tutoring is available in the Academic Skills Center in Room J2033 (Phone: (815) 280-2284). You must make an appointment for tutoring. Additional information regarding student support services can be found in the college catalog. Sullivan’s Website: http://www3.jjc.edu/staff/msullivan/default.htm After clicking Math128 Statistics, you will find your syllabus, PowerPoints, and Camtasia videos. It is strongly recommended that you print out the PowerPoints and bring them to class. Plus, you are encouraged to watch the Camtasia videos prior to class. Facebook: We will be utilizing a study group within Facebook. The group is open to anyone who wishes to join. In the group, we can share ideas, ask questions about homework or concepts, and possibly earn extra credit. The group name is Math 128 Statistics JJC Fall 2010. Online Office Hours: On Tuesday’s, my office hours will be online. Each week (on Monday or Tuesday morning), I will post a link to Facebook that will take you directly to the virtual office. You will be able to see me via web-cam and hear me. If you have a microphone, you can converse with me as well. In any case, we will be sharing a whiteboard where I can answer all your questions. Math Lab: In addition to the Academic Skills Center, there is a Math Learning Center with tutors located in Room C2019. The hours of the lab are: Monday – Friday Monday - Thursday 8:00 am – 2:30 pm 5:00 pm – 7:30 pm The Learning Center’s phone number is (815) 280 – 2823. Grading Policy: Grading will be based on the following scale: Percent 90 - 100 80 - 89 70 - 79 60 - 69 0 - 59 Final Grade A B C D F Additional Assistance: 1. You can e-mail me at [email protected] 2. Tutoring is available by appointment in the Academic Skills Center, J2033 3. As a MyStatLab subscriber, you have access to Pearson’s Tutor Center. Pearson’s Math Tutor Center is staffed by college-level mathematics instructors who can help you with what you're learning. To register for the Tutor Center: Call 1-800-435-4084 (5:00 PM-12:00 AM EST, Sun-Wed during summer; SunThurs rest of the year). When asked for a registration number, simply provide your MyMathLab course ID or student access code. Visit the Tutor Center's website for more information. Important Dates Aug 23 Sept. 6 Nov 11 Nov. 24 – 28 Dec. 13 – 17 First day of class Labor Day (no classes) Veteran’s Day (no classes) Thanksgiving Recess Final Exams College’s Refund Policy The refund policy of the college can be found at http://www.jjc.edu/new/academics/registration/refund-policy.aspx Topical Coverage Section Title Reading Assignment 1.1 1.2 Introduction to the Practice of Statistics Observational Studies and Designed Experiments Simple Random Sampling Other Effective Sampling Methods Sources of Error in Sampling The Design of Experiments Organizing Qualitative Data Organizing Quantitative Data Measures of Central Tendency Measures of Dispersion Measures of Central Tendency and Dispersion from Grouped Data Measures of Position The Five-Number Summary Scatter Diagrams and Correlation Least-Squares Regression Diagnostics on the Least-squares Regression Line Contingency Tables and Association Probability Rules The Addition and Complement Rule Independence and the Multiplication Rule Discrete Random Variables The Binomial Probability Distribution Properties of the Normal Distribution All All 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.2 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 5.1 5.2 5.3 6.1 6.2 7.1 All All All Objectives 1 – 4 only All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All 7.2 7.3 7.4 8.1 8.2 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.5 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.6 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 12.1 12.2 13.1 14.1 14.2 The Standard Normal Distribution Applications of the Normal Distribution Assessing Normality Distribution of the Sample Mean Distribution of the Sample Proportion The Logic in Constructing Confidence Intervals Confidence Intervals about a Population Mean in Practice Confidence Intervals about a Population Proportion Putting It All Together The Language of Hypothesis Testing Testing Claims about a Population Mean Assuming Sigma is Known Testing Claims about a Population Mean in Practice Testing Claims about a Population Proportion Putting It All Together Inference about Two Means: Dependent Samples Inference about Two Means: Independent Samples Inference about Two Population Proportions Putting It All Together Goodness of Fit Test Tests for Independence and the Homogeneity of Proportions Comparing Three or More Means Testing the Significance of the Leastsquares Regression Model Confidence and Prediction Intervals Math 128 Tentative Schedule Week One Week Two Week Three Week Four Week Five Week Six Week Seven Week Eight 1.1 – 1.5 1.6; 2.1, 2.2 3.1 - 3.3 3.4, 3.5 Exam #1 4.1 - 4.3 4.4; 5.1 – 5.2 5.3 – 5.4; 6.1 – 6.2 All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All All Week Nine Week Ten Week Eleven Week Twelve Week Thirteen Week Fourteen Week Fifteen Week Sixteen Week Seventeen Exam #2 7.1 – 7.4 8.1 - 8.2 9.1 - 9.3; 9.5 10.1 – 10.4; 10.6 Exam #3 11.1 – 11.3; 11.5 12.1, 12.2, 13.1, 14.1, 14.2 Final Exam Math 128 Statistics Assignments Section 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 Problems 1, 2, 13 – 51 odd; 55, 57 1, 2, 3, 9 – 19 odd 11, 15 11 – 21 odd 13 – 35 odd 1, 11, 13, 15, 17, 37 2.1 2.2 9, 11, 15,17, 21, 25, 31, 32 9, 13, 15, 19, 31, 33, 37, 39, 45, 51 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 7, 13, 15, 17, 21, 23, 27, 29, 33, 35, 37, 38, 42 11, 13, 19, 21, 22, 23, 25, 29, 31, 33, 35, 43, 45 Do the problems in this section using the calculator only – not by hand. 3, 5, 7, 11 9, 13, 15, 17, 19, 23, 25, 31 3, 5, 7, 9, 13, 17 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4, 9, 11, 13, 15, 21, 23, 25, 29, 31, 33, 35, 37, 39, 43 2, 3, 17, 19, 21, 25, 27, 31 11, 13, 15, 17, 19, 21, 23, 25, 27, 29, 31, 35, 37 7, 11, 13 5.1 5.2 5.3 11, 13, 15, 17, 19, 21, 31, 33, 37, 39, 47 15, 17, 25, 29, 31(a) and (b), 35, 39 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 23, 27, 31 6.1 6.2 7, 11, 13, 17, 21, 25, 27, 29, 31 7 – 15 odd; 17, 29, 35, 39, 43, 45, 49 7.1 7.2 7.3 7, 9, 11, 13, 19, 21, 23, 25, 27, 29, 33 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 19, 23, 27, 33, 37 3, 7, 13, 17, 19, 21, 23, 24, 27 7.4 3, 5, 7, 9 8.1 8.2 5, 9, 11, 15, 17, 19, 21, 23, 25, 27, 29, 31 5, 7, 11, 15, 19 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.5 7, 9, 11, 13, 17, 21, 25, 29, 31, 35, 41, 43, 45, 55, 59 7, 9, 13, 17, 19, 21, 23, 29, 34 5, 11, 15, 17, 21, 23, 27, 31, 33, 36 3 – 23 odd 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.6 1, 5, 9, 13, 15, 17, 21, 23, 25, 29, 35 5, 7, 9, 15, 19, 21, 23, 25, 29, 31, 35, 39, 40 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 21, 23 3(b), 7(b), 9, 11, 15, 19 13, 17, 19, 21, 23 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.5 5, 7, 11, 13, 15, 19, 21, 24 3, 9, 11, 15, 17, 19, 23 5, 9, 15, 19, 21, 23, 25, 29 15, 17, 19, 21, 23 12.1 12.2 5, 7, 11, 13, 15, 17, 21, 23 5, 7, 9, 13, 17, 19