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Fall, 2010
ELEMENTARY STATISTICS
Instructor: Michael Sullivan
Phone: (815) 280-7706
E-mail: [email protected]
OFFICE: 06 North Campus
Office Hours:
MW
M
T
W
7:30 – 8:00 am
1:30 pm – 3 pm
12:30 pm – 2 pm (online)
12:30 pm – 1:20 pm
By Appointment
Course Description: This course is an introduction to the fundamental principles and
procedures of elementary statistical methods, including a study of frequency distribution,
measures of central tendency, probability, statistical decision-making, hypothesis testing,
estimation and prediction.
Prerequisite: A grade of C or higher in Math 098, Math 095 or equivalent
Required Material:
1. Statistics Informed Decisions Using Data 3/e by Michael Sullivan, III
2. A MyMathLab/MyStatLab access code
3. A TI-83 or TI-84 Plus Graphing Calculator
Attendance: Attendance is absolutely essential in order to succeed in this course.
Therefore, attendance will be taken daily. If a class is missed, it is your responsibility to
determine the material that was covered. Any student that misses more than 2 classes
will be dropped from the class.
Course Objectives: Upon completion of the course, the student will be able to do the
following:
1.
2.
3.
Understand the design of the experiment
Recognize appropriate sampling methods
Interpret statistical data from histograms and frequency polygons, and construct
such graphs
4. Calculate measures of central tendency for data
5. Calculate measures of dispersion for data
6. Calculate standard scores, percentiles, and quartiles
7. Construct and interpret box plots and stem-and-leaf plots
8. Apply probability rules for union, intersection, and complementary events
9. Determine whether a given pair of events is independent
10. Estimate probabilities using simulations
11. Find mean, variance, and standard deviation for given discrete probability
distributions
12.
13.
14.
15.
Calculate probabilities of events using binomial distributions
Compute conditional probabilities
Find probabilities for binomial random variables using the normal approximation
Use the Central Limit Theorem to determine the probability that a sample mean
will fall within a specified interval given the population mean and standard
deviation, and a level of confidence
16. Calculate confidence intervals for a population mean given a sample size, mean,
standard deviation, and level of confidence
17. Determine minimum sample size in estimating µ given a margin of error, standard
deviation, and level of significance
18. Calculate confidence intervals for a proportion given a sample’s size, proportion,
and a level of significance
19. Determine a minimum sample size in estimating a population proportion given a
margin of error and a level of significance
20. Calculate Type I errors and define Type II errors
21. Formulate null and alternative hypotheses for testing claims about population
means (one and two-tailed); to perform such tests using t-distributions at a given
level of significance
22. Use P-values in hypothesis testing
23. Formulate null and alternative hypotheses for testing claims about proportions
(one and two-tailed); to perform such tests using a normal distribution and a given
level of significance
24. Formulate null and alternative hypotheses concerning the equality of the means of
two populations for both paired and unpaired data; to determine the appropriate
test and perform such a test for given sample data
25. Calculate confidence intervals and conduct hypotheses for the difference of two
population means given sample means, sample sizes, sample variances, margin of
error, and confidence level
26. Formulate null and alternative hypotheses for testing claims about equality of two
proportions; to perform such tests using a normal distribution and a given level of
significance.
27. Calculate a confidence interval for the difference of two population proportions
given data from two samples, a margin of error, and a level of confidence
28. Calculate the linear correlation coefficient for a set of pairs of values for two
random variables; to determine whether the coefficient is significant at a given
level
29. Determine the equation of the regression line for a given set of data pairs and to
use this equation to predict the value of one random variable given the value of
the other
30. Test the assumptions of the least squares regression model using residual analysis
31. Test paired data for outliers and influential observations
32. Use the simple linear regression equation and correlation coefficient to determine
prediction intervals for y, explained variation, unexplained variation, coefficient
of determination, and standard error of estimate
33. Test claims about expected frequencies in multinomial experiments using a chisquare distribution
34. Test the independence of two random variables using a chi-square distribution
35. Test the equality of three or more population means using one-way analysis of
variance using equal sample sizes and unequal sample sizes
36. Use Minitab or Excel to analyze data
37. Use a graphing calculator to analyze data- Suggested calculator applications
include: drawing histograms; finding measures of central tendency; performing
simulations to give approximate values for probabilities; drawing box plots;
histograms, normal probability plots and scatter diagrams; using the binomial
probability formula; finding z values from a given area or probability; calculating
test statistics and confidence intervals for data sets; determining correlation and
regression; calculating the chi-square test statistic for multinomial experiments;
calculating analysis of variance; constructing a control chart
Homework: Homework will be assigned each class. You are to attempt the problems
assigned and we will discuss them the following class meeting. If you wish to discuss a
problem during class, please put the section and problem number on the front board in the
upper right hand corner so I know which problems to discuss. In addition to suggested
exercises from the text, there is homework to be completed in MyStatLab. This
homework is worth 100 points toward your final grade. Problems can be worked on until
a correct answer is obtained so there is no excuse for not getting 100/100 points!
StatCrunch: StatCrunch is an online data analysis tool and much more. In StatCrunch,
you will be asked to write short reports with supporting statistical analysis. In addition,
you will be asked to write a reaction to reports generated by your peers. There will be
approximately 5 reports throughout the semester, with each report worth 20 points.
Grading Policy: Your grade will consist of MyStatLab homework, three exams, the
StatCrunch reports, 50 participation points, and an in-class final exam. The StatCrunch
will be worth 100 points, the MyStatLab homework is worth 100 points, each exam is
worth 100 points and the final exam will be worth 150 points. The final exam can
replace your lowest test score.
Exams: There will be three exams plus a comprehensive final exam. Formulae and
Tables will be given with all exams. Please bring your TI-83 or TI-84 Plus calculator for
all exams. Each exam is worth 100 points and the final exam is worth 150 points. All
exams are given in the classroom.
Academic Assistance: If you need additional help, tutoring is available in the Academic
Skills Center in Room J2033 (Phone: (815) 280-2284). You must make an appointment
for tutoring. Additional information regarding student support services can be found in
the college catalog.
Sullivan’s Website: http://www3.jjc.edu/staff/msullivan/default.htm After clicking
Math128 Statistics, you will find your syllabus, PowerPoints, and Camtasia videos. It is
strongly recommended that you print out the PowerPoints and bring them to class. Plus,
you are encouraged to watch the Camtasia videos prior to class.
Facebook: We will be utilizing a study group within Facebook. The group is open to
anyone who wishes to join. In the group, we can share ideas, ask questions about
homework or concepts, and possibly earn extra credit. The group name is Math 128
Statistics JJC Fall 2010.
Online Office Hours: On Tuesday’s, my office hours will be online. Each week (on
Monday or Tuesday morning), I will post a link to Facebook that will take you directly to
the virtual office. You will be able to see me via web-cam and hear me. If you have a
microphone, you can converse with me as well. In any case, we will be sharing a
whiteboard where I can answer all your questions.
Math Lab: In addition to the Academic Skills Center, there is a Math Learning Center
with tutors located in Room C2019. The hours of the lab are:
Monday – Friday
Monday - Thursday
8:00 am – 2:30 pm
5:00 pm – 7:30 pm
The Learning Center’s phone number is (815) 280 – 2823.
Grading Policy: Grading will be based on the following scale:
Percent
90 - 100
80 - 89
70 - 79
60 - 69
0 - 59
Final Grade
A
B
C
D
F
Additional Assistance:
1. You can e-mail me at [email protected]
2. Tutoring is available by appointment in the Academic Skills Center, J2033
3. As a MyStatLab subscriber, you have access to Pearson’s Tutor Center. Pearson’s
Math Tutor Center is staffed by college-level mathematics instructors who can
help you with what you're learning.
To register for the Tutor Center:
Call 1-800-435-4084 (5:00 PM-12:00 AM EST, Sun-Wed during summer; SunThurs rest of the year).
When asked for a registration number, simply provide your MyMathLab course
ID or student access code.
Visit the Tutor Center's website for more information.
Important Dates
Aug 23
Sept. 6
Nov 11
Nov. 24 – 28
Dec. 13 – 17
First day of class
Labor Day (no classes)
Veteran’s Day (no classes)
Thanksgiving Recess
Final Exams
College’s Refund Policy The refund policy of the college can be found at
http://www.jjc.edu/new/academics/registration/refund-policy.aspx
Topical Coverage
Section
Title
Reading Assignment
1.1
1.2
Introduction to the Practice of Statistics
Observational Studies and Designed
Experiments
Simple Random Sampling
Other Effective Sampling Methods
Sources of Error in Sampling
The Design of Experiments
Organizing Qualitative Data
Organizing Quantitative Data
Measures of Central Tendency
Measures of Dispersion
Measures of Central Tendency and
Dispersion from Grouped Data
Measures of Position
The Five-Number Summary
Scatter Diagrams and Correlation
Least-Squares Regression
Diagnostics on the Least-squares
Regression Line
Contingency Tables and Association
Probability Rules
The Addition and Complement Rule
Independence and the Multiplication Rule
Discrete Random Variables
The Binomial Probability Distribution
Properties of the Normal Distribution
All
All
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
2.1
2.2
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
5.1
5.2
5.3
6.1
6.2
7.1
All
All
All
Objectives 1 – 4 only
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
7.2
7.3
7.4
8.1
8.2
9.1
9.2
9.3
9.5
10.1
10.2
10.3
10.4
10.6
11.1
11.2
11.3
11.4
12.1
12.2
13.1
14.1
14.2
The Standard Normal Distribution
Applications of the Normal Distribution
Assessing Normality
Distribution of the Sample Mean
Distribution of the Sample Proportion
The Logic in Constructing Confidence
Intervals
Confidence Intervals about a Population
Mean in Practice
Confidence Intervals about a Population
Proportion
Putting It All Together
The Language of Hypothesis Testing
Testing Claims about a Population Mean
Assuming Sigma is Known
Testing Claims about a Population Mean
in Practice
Testing Claims about a Population
Proportion
Putting It All Together
Inference about Two Means: Dependent
Samples
Inference about Two Means: Independent
Samples
Inference about Two Population
Proportions
Putting It All Together
Goodness of Fit Test
Tests for Independence and the
Homogeneity of Proportions
Comparing Three or More Means
Testing the Significance of the Leastsquares Regression Model
Confidence and Prediction Intervals
Math 128 Tentative Schedule
Week One
Week Two
Week Three
Week Four
Week Five
Week Six
Week Seven
Week Eight
1.1 – 1.5
1.6; 2.1, 2.2
3.1 - 3.3
3.4, 3.5
Exam #1
4.1 - 4.3
4.4; 5.1 – 5.2
5.3 – 5.4; 6.1 – 6.2
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
All
Week Nine
Week Ten
Week Eleven
Week Twelve
Week Thirteen
Week Fourteen
Week Fifteen
Week Sixteen
Week Seventeen
Exam #2
7.1 – 7.4
8.1 - 8.2
9.1 - 9.3; 9.5
10.1 – 10.4; 10.6
Exam #3
11.1 – 11.3; 11.5
12.1, 12.2, 13.1, 14.1, 14.2
Final Exam
Math 128 Statistics Assignments
Section
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
Problems
1, 2, 13 – 51 odd; 55, 57
1, 2, 3, 9 – 19 odd
11, 15
11 – 21 odd
13 – 35 odd
1, 11, 13, 15, 17, 37
2.1
2.2
9, 11, 15,17, 21, 25, 31, 32
9, 13, 15, 19, 31, 33, 37, 39, 45, 51
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
7, 13, 15, 17, 21, 23, 27, 29, 33, 35, 37, 38, 42
11, 13, 19, 21, 22, 23, 25, 29, 31, 33, 35, 43, 45
Do the problems in this section using the calculator only – not by hand.
3, 5, 7, 11
9, 13, 15, 17, 19, 23, 25, 31
3, 5, 7, 9, 13, 17
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4, 9, 11, 13, 15, 21, 23, 25, 29, 31, 33, 35, 37, 39, 43
2, 3, 17, 19, 21, 25, 27, 31
11, 13, 15, 17, 19, 21, 23, 25, 27, 29, 31, 35, 37
7, 11, 13
5.1
5.2
5.3
11, 13, 15, 17, 19, 21, 31, 33, 37, 39, 47
15, 17, 25, 29, 31(a) and (b), 35, 39
7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 23, 27, 31
6.1
6.2
7, 11, 13, 17, 21, 25, 27, 29, 31
7 – 15 odd; 17, 29, 35, 39, 43, 45, 49
7.1
7.2
7.3
7, 9, 11, 13, 19, 21, 23, 25, 27, 29, 33
5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 19, 23, 27, 33, 37
3, 7, 13, 17, 19, 21, 23, 24, 27
7.4
3, 5, 7, 9
8.1
8.2
5, 9, 11, 15, 17, 19, 21, 23, 25, 27, 29, 31
5, 7, 11, 15, 19
9.1
9.2
9.3
9.5
7, 9, 11, 13, 17, 21, 25, 29, 31, 35, 41, 43, 45, 55, 59
7, 9, 13, 17, 19, 21, 23, 29, 34
5, 11, 15, 17, 21, 23, 27, 31, 33, 36
3 – 23 odd
10.1
10.2
10.3
10.4
10.6
1, 5, 9, 13, 15, 17, 21, 23, 25, 29, 35
5, 7, 9, 15, 19, 21, 23, 25, 29, 31, 35, 39, 40
9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 21, 23
3(b), 7(b), 9, 11, 15, 19
13, 17, 19, 21, 23
11.1
11.2
11.3
11.5
5, 7, 11, 13, 15, 19, 21, 24
3, 9, 11, 15, 17, 19, 23
5, 9, 15, 19, 21, 23, 25, 29
15, 17, 19, 21, 23
12.1
12.2
5, 7, 11, 13, 15, 17, 21, 23
5, 7, 9, 13, 17, 19