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Responding to New Market Volatility New capabilities for pricing, trading and risk management can help steel producers protect margins and pursue high performance Four major developments are driving a significant increase in the price volatility of both steel products and steelmaking raw materials. First among these developments is the overall financial and economic volatility across the globe. Secondly, global markets are increasingly subject to emerging country macroeconomic decision making that is prone to frequent, abrupt changes. The third factor driving a significant increase in price volatility involves timing. The time frame for raw material pricing contracts has shifted from annual to quarterly, monthly or even shorter periods. Finally, global steel industry consolidation has stalled, increasing competitive intensity in the face of weak demand and making it more difficult to remove excess capacity. The increase in volatility in recent years can be seen in Figure 1, which shows the quarterly percent price deviation from the prior 12-month average for selected commodities. Managing this increased volatility has become a major day-to-day challenge for steelmakers. Additionally, it is eroding investor confidence in the industry’s ability to manage the spreads between input costs and output prices, which is essential to generating adequate returns over the cycle. In this paper, we discuss the impacts that increased volatility has on steel companies; the issues and challenges that need to be addressed in adopting a more proactive posture toward the use of emerging tools and financial instruments; and the key capabilities that companies need to build as they enter this world. Regardless of the rate at which tradable exchanges for steel inputs and products develop and gain acceptance, Accenture believes that companies that build advanced risk management and trading capabilities will enjoy a first-mover advantage and be better positioned to prevail in this era of increased volatility. As a result, debate is intensifying as to the best ways for steel companies to respond and, in particular, whether the industry should actively embrace futures markets and other hedging mechanisms, or rather wait to see how they mature. Figure 1. Metals price volatility (1990-2012). 100% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% Steel (HRC) Iron Ore Source: Accenture research. 1 Thermal/coking coal Dec 12 Jan 12 Feb 11 Mar 10 Apr 09 May 08 Jun 07 Jul 06 Aug 05 Sep 04 Oct 03 Nov 02 Dec 01 Jan 01 Feb 00 Mar 99 Apr 98 May 97 Jun 96 Jul 95 Aug 94 Sep 93 Oct 92 Nov 91 Dec 90 -80% Jan 90 Percent departure from previous 12-month average 80% Increased volatility adding to pressure on steelmakers The fundamental challenge posed by increased volatility results from the persistent potential for asynchronous pricing movements since the timing of changes in market prices of raw materials and steel are rarely in sync. An increase in the spot or quarterly contract price of iron ore does not imply that a corresponding increase in sales price for steel can be achieved in the same time horizon. Although volatility may also benefit steelmakers (as when steel prices rise faster than raw material costs), industry experience suggests these conditions occur less frequently and are shorter in duration. As a consequence, steel companies are exposed to a number of adverse impacts, including: Accelerated commoditization—Steel companies have long battled against commoditization by emphasizing attribute uniqueness and differentiated services. In a highly fragmented industry, the high number of competitors frequently undermines attempts at differentiation. Increased pricing volatility potentially accelerates commoditization by heightening the focus of price in commercial negotiations to the detriment of other considerations such as product attributes, service differentiation and total cost of ownership. Structural margin erosion— Commoditization and asynchronous pricing movements put a squeeze on steel company margins. Producers, in effect, become cost-plus converters of raw materials with insufficient “plus” to generate adequate shareholder returns. Moreover, customer pressures for longerterm product pricing agreements can further squeeze margins. Diminished forecasting ability—Price volatility on both sides of the millconversion equation undermines earnings stability and visibility that can weaken the ability to secure financing. Other commodity industries where earnings can be forecasted more reliably and hedged from unfavorable market conditions are potentially more attractive to sophisticated, risk-conscious investors. While these challenges affect the steel industry as a whole, there are differential impacts across individual steel producers based on their product mix, market position and technical and operating capabilities. Building momentum to take action For company leaders beginning to see the need for better pricing management, the place to start is by understanding the basic concepts of commodity trading and risk management, as well as comprehending the potential benefits. Steel producers need to see this issue at a strategic level. What is needed, first of all, is acceptance among top executives across the procurement, planning, commercial and financial organizations that the enterprise has lost some power and market control, and that something needs to be done to avoid giving up more ground. Many other industries—agribusiness, copper, oil, aluminum, gas and power—have faced similar challenges related to commoditization and lack of pricing power. After surmounting early resistance to change, companies built trading and risk management capabilities to protect their revenues, stabilize performance and reassure investors. They also created increasing demand for financial instruments that are in common use today. Experience from other industries suggests that there are measurable benefits to be derived from active (and intelligent) participation in market exchanges and use of price risk management tools. Later in the paper, we discuss how some of these benefits may be materialized in the steel industry, but first we need to consider the general topic of risk. 2 Escaping upstream? In response to increased volatility and the upstream shift in margin capture, many steelmakers are actively attempting to acquire mines. The logic of this strategy is straightforward. However, the reality is that raw material self-sufficiency will remain unattainable for most steel producers due to a scarcity of quality mine development opportunities, as well as severe competition for those properties from sovereign wealth funds and established mining companies with deeper pockets and existing leveragable infrastructures. At the same time, the recent—and perhaps protracted—decline in raw material prices due to China’s economic slowdown highlights the inherent riskiness of a “be the company” upstream integration strategy. Even as the mining industry adds more capacity in the coming years, the industry structure and market dynamics are expected to remain intact, thus perpetuating pricing volatility. In this context, all steel producers—even those with some measure of self-sufficiency—need to look to other mechanisms to manage volatility. 3 Rethinking risk and risk management Assess appetite for risk A key early step in building organizational consensus is to assess and articulate the company’s appetite for risk. For example, is the enterprise engaging in commodity trading to reduce risk of loss or eroded margin due to unfavorable market price movements (pure hedging)? Or is there a desire to take views on future price movements or attempt to extend margins? This can be thought of as a risk appetite scale. At one end are the risk-averse companies, where an enterprise seeks to reduce, or remove entirely, exposure to market price volatility. These types of companies are termed “volatility minimizers.” At the opposite end of the scale, those companies that seek financial gain from taking on exposures and confidently invest capital (“risk capital”) in market positions are termed “market makers and speculators.” The middle band is populated by those companies that seek to take on some risk, but with the agreed strategy of optimizing the value and earnings from their inherently natural market positions. Those positions usually arise from asset ownership and the need to convert materials in terms of form and value. In all examples along this scale of reducing or taking on risk, companies are required to complete some commercial activity, and this is essentially through engaging in hedging and trading. The risk appetite also should not be classified exclusively according to the degree of speculation an enterprise wants to take. Rather, it should be based on an appraisal of the competitive landscape and the insights on how markets for raw materials and products are developing. Implementing a risk management and control framework Regardless of a company’s chosen risk profile, hedging and trading capabilities require a risk-control function that is not incentivized by favorable market price movements. Internal controls should be designed to enable risks to be taken within established boundaries that confirm limits to potential downside financial outcomes, as well as support the transparent pursuit of profit-enhancing opportunities. Essentially, the trading activity needs to be part of a comprehensive framework for enterprise risk management that interlocks the concerns of more enterprise-wide activities governing finance; industrial operations; logistics; counterparty performance; health and safety; environment and sustainability; and corporate relations, as well as the causal commercial execution of procurement, sales and trading. of a portfolio of varied but interrelated positions throughout the value chain, linked by a common denominator of measurable commodity market exposure. The risk framework is the means by which categories of risk are measured and controlled, aligned to the risk appetite. It consists of clearly defined policies and directives that disseminate into measurements of risk, limits to risk levels using those measurements and how those limits are quantified and applied to any sub-categories of the organization such as business units, divisions and portfolios. Operational processes and procedures enacted by specific roles and responsibilities are also defined, including key roles that sit within the trading function tasked with executing daily commercial market activity that manages the risk. Meanwhile, a risk control function monitors and analyzes the frequently changing risk profile of the enterprise’s exposures and confirms compliance with policy. Segregation of these two key types of roles are an important principle in whatever scale or design of organization structure is most suitable for the particular enterprise. • Influence produce vs. buy decisions to protect or enhance economic value. Developing a trading function These activities all include focus on the core component of setting prices. The focus then shifts to what actions are needed to enact risk management strategy and, finally, to taking those actions. In many cases, these actions would involve entering into further transactions with other counterparties, including non-industry market participants such as financial institutions and commodity exchanges that provide a means to offset price risks via hedging. Essentially, the trading unit becomes the operational mission control for enlivening the commercial aspects of risk management strategy and supporting more confident forward planning of production schedules and steel output. With a strong risk management and control framework in place, the next step is to develop and begin to implement a business unit or function to handle trading and hedging for the organization. For optimal benefits, the trading unit must be thoroughly integrated with the business. It serves as the interface between procurement, production planning and sales and marketing. A core commercial component the trading unit handles is one of setting the pricing of raw material purchases, product sales and commoditymarket hedges that then become part Built upon a core of managing pricing and associated risk, there are many activities that trading units perform to improve and assure results. Some or all of the following apply to specific companies, depending on their level of integration throughout the steel value chain: • Manage pricing and timing of raw material purchases. • Recommend and execute medium- and long-term hedging strategies, such as locking in raw material-to-product spreads where differentials are favorably wider than when budgeted or forecasted. • Innovate in product pricing. For example, through offering flexibility of volume and price to customers and capturing the value that such flexibility introduces. • Decompose structured sales contracts into commodity-market transactions that serve as hedges so as to provide offsetting value should sales prices in the future move unfavorably. • Disseminate information gained from daily activities in globally linked markets that may greatly assist the enterprise’s short- and medium-term strategy. • Provide input to forecasting, planning and budgeting functions. 4 Considering what constitutes speculation Some steel company leaders may worry that adding trading capabilities will be seen as encouraging speculation. “We don’t want a bunch of casino people in here,” might be the argument. The reality is that doing nothing or conducting business as usual in the face of increasing market volatility is already a form of speculation— just not an overt one. On the most basic level, it represents a bet that conditions will revert to the old ways or at least swing in a more favorable direction. Every time a steel company enters into a sales contract at a fixed price without a corresponding fix on raw material costs, it is making a bet that its costs will be below what is required to generate its target margin. Executives might believe raw material costs will decline, but this amounts to operating on hunches. And likewise when the company locks in a raw material supply contract in the face of steel market uncertainty, it is betting on its ability to cover margins through higher sales prices. In contrast, hedging of assets and commitments presents far better mitigation to new market volatility than taking no action at all. To avert “casino behavior,” organizations can develop procedures that integrate business intelligence, risk controls and oversight. 5 Benefiting from new tools and instruments as well as the timing of when the prices are fixed on each side. Where a raw material (iron ore) shipment price is fixed at a different point in time to the sales price of steel output, the facilities of a commodity market via purchase or sale of financial hedging contracts can be used to lock in a margin between raw material cost and product sale. Until recently, there were virtually no means to hedge in the steel industry because of a lack of trading tools. Now a variety of financial instruments exist, and many are similar to what has proved valuable in other commodity markets such as base metals, oil, energy products and agricultural resources. For example, a typical steel mill may hedge by buying “financial” iron ore swap contracts to lock in the purchase cost of its core raw material at the time when a steel product sales price is fixed with a customer. Conversely, when the purchase price of its iron ore shipment is fixed with its supplier, the mill could use an exchange hot roll coil, billet or rebar contract to lock in a “proxy” sales level of its product by selling that corresponding financial contract. The delivery months of trades executed in each case can be chosen in such a way as to account for production schedules and lead times (for example, March 2013 on the iron ore Commodity exchanges and financial organizations have established tradable financial contracts that can serve as iron ore, coking coal and steel hedging offerings. (See far-left column in Figure 2.) Pricing platforms are available for upstream as well as for downstream transactions. If the core strategy of steel companies is to protect margins from erosion, then this can be aided by establishing a link between sales prices and raw materials costs wherever possible—and vice versa. This linkage can be in terms of both input and output prices, side and May 2013 on the product side). The principles of this approach leverage the price structure of the commodity market in the forward price curve and the differentials between the iron ore and steel product prices for a given price point/delivery date pairing. The reality is that steel products are characterized by a wide variety of specifications, while commodity exchange futures and swaps contracts are limited to a narrow selection of median specifications. This should not be an excuse for avoiding the use of benefits these hedging illustrations present. Other well-established commodity markets also have wide varieties of specifications. But premium and discount structures evolve relative to the core commodity index, and participants routinely avail themselves of the protection such hedging offers. Figure 2. Simple hedging potential in the iron ore to steel value chain. Time flow—processing chain T0 Iron ore miners T1 T2 Iron ore Steel output Steel mills Physical contracts Physical contracts Price fix on ore spot price at T1 Price fix on steel spot price at T2 Financial Contracts ICE, NYMEX-CME, SGX Banks and brokers Financial Contracts LME, NYMEX-CME, NCDEX, MCX, SHFE, DGCX These hedges illustrate potential for the mill to take advantage of favorable financial market prices to lock in a margin in advance of any physical material pricing. The ore hedge at T1 only applies as an unwind of an ore financial position exists from buy hedge at TO. Lock-in margin Buy hedge on ore forward price Sell/unwind hedge on ore spot price or proxy for ore blast date T0 Steel stockists and users Sell hedge on steel forward T2 price T1 Sell or (roll) hedge on steel forward T2 price T2 Buy/unwind hedge at steel spot price The sell steel hedge at T1 is fundamental to protecting margin and locks a spread based on physical ore cost. If done at TO it is “rolled” to further date if necessary. The buy/unwind steel hedge at T2 closes the financial steel sale/short position opened at T1. Source: Accenture research. Note: CME – Chicago Mercantile Exchange; DGCX - Dubai Gold & Commodity Exchange; ICE – Intercontinental Exchange; LME – London Metal Exchange; MCX – Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd.; NCDEX – National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd.; NYMEX – New York Mercantile Exchange; SFX – Shanghai Futures Exchange; SGX – Singapore Exchange. 6 7 Potential benefits Greater flexibility Some exchanges and financial players provide facilities for warehousing, delivery and financing of the commodity. Producers can sell standardized grades of production into the exchange when lulls in demand occur or when customers request delayed delivery. This activity occurs on the London Metal Exchange (LME) with other metals and now extends to steel billet. It presents an alternative sales channel for product and even provides improved cash flow and reduced payment delays or defaults, as the exchanges are generally backed by financially sound cash-clearing facilities. Conversely, the same warehousing can provide a source of product to buy back when production outages occur or demand ramps up ahead of output schedules or raw material availability. In times of increased demand in base metals markets, exchange warehouse stocks have been the source of material for the very producers who made it. Having options on when and where to deliver or receive materials can be a differentiator in serving customer needs and can be a decisive factor in contract negotiations. Protect and enhance margins Some steel industry participants will not be satisfied with merely protecting revenues. In a globally competitive, shareholder return driven landscape, they are considering enhancements to profit potential. Commodity market pricing can enable such opportunities through the very volatility companies seek to manage. Reshaping the terms on how steel producers set prices by using marketreference pricing can provide opportunities to manage and improve margins. These tools can provide opportunities to lock in lower prices on the buy side or higher prices on the sell side. Using widely available published references, commodity market-based pricing introduces improved transparency. The relationship between future raw material costs and sales revenues can be largely fixed today; the alternative is that one or both sides of the equation are left open and suffer the consequences of uncertain future price directions. This approach might be a more opportunistic move than the spread mechanism used to lock in a margin defensively. First-mover advantage Trading platforms and financial instruments are evolving to suit the needs of market participants. Perceived pain points typically result in new products and services being developed to provide relief. To date, trading offerings are fairly regional in focus and no single platform dominates. (See Figure 3.) Also, based on some attributes of steel, including heterogeneity of products (even at the semi-finished stage) and the tendency of some products to degrade over time in storage, the adoption of large-scale trading exchanges faces severe challenges. Whatever the speed of steel commodity market evolution, Accenture believes those enterprises that embrace the changes early on and develop strategies and business enablers accordingly are likely to benefit the most. For most companies, the cultural change will be significant. The earlier that companies take initial steps, the more embedded the needed capabilities will be when the market ‘tipping point’ occurs. Companies late to the game will be at a competitive disadvantage when commodity pricing and risk management have permeated the industry. The leaders will have more developed capabilities, systems and experience to reap a larger number of benefits. They also will be further along the scale of maturity and sophistication in price risk management, and better placed to shape the next wave of competitive practice in commercial transaction structuring. Growing coverage of hedging instruments Executives have recognized the importance of fuller coverage of the materials portfolio of steel mills. As a result, the available contracts offered by exchanges on their own trading platforms and as centrally cleared, over-the-counter contracts now extend to a wider range of raw materials, including coking coal and ferrous scrap. Provision of existing energy derivatives and freight futures and forwards also extends the mix of total coverage of the typical steel-related risk portfolio. Further depth and flexibility is provided by options contracts on iron ore and HRC, which were introduced in 2011. Essentially, options provide, at a cost, the means to participate in favorable price moves while simultaneously locking in levels that protect from unfavorable moves. It remains to be seen when the industry will reach the level of portfolio risk management sophistication to realize the benefits associated with collective use of all such tools. 8 Figure 3. Exchanges and banks offer growing number of instruments for trading and risk management. Market Commodity Grade Platform Venue / Contract Region of Product Platform Type Contract Forward Delivery Reference / Fixing Region of Size Intervals & Price Index at Commodity Horizon Settlement Delivery Settlement (physical delivery or financial) ICE (OTC) Iron ore 62% Fe Fines Global Over the counter (OTC) swap 1,000 MT Monthly out to 24 months Platt’s iron ore 62% CFR China – month average CFR China Cleared OTC financial NYMEX CME Iron ore 62% Fe Fines Global OTC swap * 1,000 MT Monthly out to three Platt’s iron ore 62% calendar years CFR China – month average CFR China Cleared OTC financial NYMEX CME Iron ore 62% Fe Fines Global OTC swap * 500 MT Monthly out to three TSI iron ore 62% CFR CFR China calendar years China – month average Cleared OTC financial SGX Iron ore 62% Fe Fines Singapore OTC swap 500 MT Monthly out to 48 months Cleared OTC financial SMX Iron ore 62% Fe Fines Global OTC index (Singapore) 100 times Monthly out to six index price months MB iron ore 62% CFR Qingdao – month average CFR China Exchange cleared financial Banks, Brokers Iron ore 62% Fe Fines Various OTC swap 1,000 MT Monthly TSI, Platt’s, others CFR China Cleared via LCH Clearnet OTC financial NYMEX CME Coking coal Australian Global HCC 64 mid volume OTC swap 1,000 MT Monthly to 24 months Platt’s month average FOB Australia Cleared OTC financial NYMEX CME Coking coal Australian Global Premium HCC low volume OTC swap 1,000 MT Monthly to 24 months 1) Platt’s FOB Australia Cleared OTC financial TSI iron ore 62% CFR CFR China China – month average 2) Argus month average NYMEX CME Steel Scrap US #1 Ferrous Busheling Exchange Cleared Swap Futures 20 Tons Monthly to 24 Months AMM US Midwest #1 Busheling Midwest US Exchange Cleared Financial NYMEX CME Steel scrap MS I & II 80:20 Europe OTC swap 50 MT Monthly to 24 months Platt’s month average CFR Turkey Cleared OTC financial LME Long steel Billet GOST 380-94 Global (London) Exchangecleared futures 65 MT LME settlement price Daily to three at Expiry months, weekly to six months; monthly to 15 months LME warehouse Europe, Far East Physical delivery on matured open positions NYMEX CME Flat steel Domestic HRC US Exchange20 short cleared swaps * ton Monthly to 24 months CRU US Midwest domestic HRC index Midwest US Exchange cleared financial NYMEX CME Flat Steel HRC Europe OTC Swap 50MT Monthly to 24 months Platt’s Months Average Ex Works, Ruhr Cleared OTC Financial NYMEX CME Long steel Billet Europe OTC swap 100 MT Monthly to 24 months Platt’s month average FOB Black Sea Cleared OTC financial NYMEX CME Long Steel Rebar HRB400 China OTC Swap 100MT Monthly to 12 months MySteel HRB400 Month Average China Cleared OTC Financial DGCX Long steel Rebar BS 4449 W 460 B Dubai UAE Exchange10 MT cleared futures Monthly to four months DGCX settlement price Dubai at Expiry SHFE Long steel Rebar Shanghai Exchange10 MT cleared futures Monthly to 12 months SHFE settlement price at Expiry Listed warehouse Physical China SHFE Long steel Wire rod Shanghai Exchange10 MT cleared futures Monthly to 12 months SHFE settlement price at Expiry Listed warehouse Physical China NCDEX Long steel Ingot / Billet India Exchange10 MT cleared futures Monthly to five or six months NCDEX settlement price Ghaziabad, plus at Expiry others MCX Long steel Ingot / Billet Mumbai Exchange10 MT cleared futures (max. trade size applies) Monthly out to three MCX settlement price to four months at Expiry Ghaziabad, plus others Physical delivery on open matured positions Physical delivery on open matured positions Physical delivery on open matured positions *Denotes options contracts are also available. Note: CME – Chicago Mercantile Exchange; DGCX - Dubai Gold & Commodity Exchange; ICE – Intercontinental Exchange; LME – London Metal Exchange; MCX – Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd.; NCDEX – National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd.; NYMEX – New York Mercantile Exchange; SFX – Shanghai Futures Exchange; SGX – Singapore Exchange. Updated as of February 2013. 9 Building trading and risk capabilities for a new era Steel companies have an opportunity to improve performance by adapting to the new era of price volatility. Use of emerging hedging tools can enable this transition, and companies need to begin developing their capabilities to benefit from use of these new instruments. These capabilities are essentially about being in a position to identify, measure and manage risks arising from price volatility in a regular and repeatable manner. Managing those risks is best achieved through assigning responsibility to a controlled commercial function, which executes contracts in the markets to offset or transform the risk, traditionally termed the trading function. The benefits include revenue protection, enhanced visibility into future cash flow and improved ability to forecast earnings and anticipate investor concerns. Doing so will move the enterprise forward from reliance on a cost-plus model. This step can help protect margins from intense and increasing global competition in both raw materials and finishedproduct markets. In the coming years, integrated trading and risk management approaches are likely to become standard practice for leading steel producers. There are several organizational and operational considerations that contribute to successfully implementing effective trading and risk management capabilities. As well as the strategic and commercial aspects outlined in this paper, there are designs to be made regarding the organizational and capital structure of the enterprise, in addition to the operating model and people, processes and technology platforms that best support delivery of that strategy. There is no one generic, off-the-shelf model that guarantees quick implementation, but the most suitable and effective models will be delivered by those steel enterprises that take positive steps to recognize the challenge, begin to expend the effort and design what is appropriate for them. The alternative of waiting and watching while markets become no less forgiving or volatile is no longer an option. About the authors James Ghazala is based in London and leads the metals and mining focus of the Commodity Trading and Risk Management group, as well as being involved with client engagements in the energy space. His experience spans 20 years in commodities, commencing as a physical metals trader and marketer having daily dealings with industrial producers, consumers and merchants, as well as with the metals futures and options markets. This experience has been followed by roles in consultancy and investment banking centered on enabling metals and energy businesses to expand, improve and adapt their trading portfolios and risk management capabilities through applying his firsthand understanding of commodities business strategies and market structures, as well as the platforms on which the business is processed. [email protected] John E. Lichtenstein is the Managing Director of the Accenture Metals industry group. He has more than 20 years of experience as an industry executive and consultant to the global metals and mining industries. He works with leading companies in the areas of strategy, technology, mergers and acquisitions, globalization and business transformation. He is a recognized specialist on industry issues, has written numerous articles for industry publications and regularly appears as an invited speaker at World Steel Association, China Iron and Steel Association and Brazil Steel Institute events, as well as the Steel Success Strategies conferences. [email protected] 10 About Accenture Accenture is a global management consulting, technology services and outsourcing company, with approximately 259,000 people serving clients in more than 120 countries. Combining unparalleled experience, comprehensive capabilities across all industries and business functions, and extensive research on the world’s most successful companies, Accenture collaborates with clients to help them become high-performance businesses and governments. The company generated net revenues of US$27.9 billion for the fiscal year ended Aug. 31, 2012. Its home page is www.accenture.com. If you have a QR reader installed on your smartphone, simply scan this code to be taken directly to the Accenture Metals page: www.accenture.com/metals This document is produced by Accenture as general information on the subject. It is not intended to provide advice on your specific circumstances. If you require advice or further details on any matters referred to, please contact your Accenture representative. Copyright © 2013 Accenture All rights reserved. Accenture, its logo, and High Performance Delivered are trademarks of Accenture. 13-0059 / 11-5709