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Is three a crowd? Chinese and Japanese resource strategy in the Russian Arctic. Timothy Magner MA Candidate, Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Arctic Frontiers January 23, 2015 Tromsø, Norway Center for International Environment and Resource Policy Overview Russia’s shift to East Asia … Development in the Russian far east … Impact of low oil prices … A land without a people, for a people without land? Source: Satoshi Kambayashi, The Economist Russian exports by country (2013) Europe Asia Source: World Bank, MIT, Japan (next in line? …) Abe: First Japanese PM to visit Russia in 10 years (April ‘13) … First ever Japan-Russia 2+2 talks (Nov ‘13) … Russian Arctic Resources … Crippling No Development Today High-risk Chinese/Asia Arctic investment 1H 2014 Western Sanctions Western IOCs position … But no Development Repealed “Arctic Creep” continues PreSanctions Low Oil Prices High Risk increases as best-in-class, i.e. Western, firms are unable to operate Break-Even Prices for Non-producing Assets Sample Arctic Break-Even Development Prices Arctic Source: Rystad Energy 2014 Break-Even Price Project Name Location BP Liberty Beaufort Sea $109 Amauligak Beaufort Sea $113 ENI Goliat Barents Sea $95 Johan Castberg Barents Sea $85 Bakken Field North Dakota $65 ($/barrel) Thank you. Center for International Environment and Resource Policy
