Download information revolution - Center for US

TECHNOLOGIES FOR
TOMORROW
Michael A. Einhorn, Ph.D.
Affiliate
Center for U.S. Ukrainian Relations
[email protected]
UKRAINIAN ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT
• Software and Outsourcing
• Academic Science
• Mining and Metals
• Agriculture
• Energy
HISTORICAL MODELS FOR
INDUSTRIALIZATION
• 1860: U. S. and Germany (growth in technology
helped by academics and government)
• Poland and Hungary follow
• 1880-1960:
Japan (imitation, management)
• 1960-2010 Taiwan and South Korea (information
technology)
• 1990: India (software)
STIMULATING ECONOMIC
GROWTH
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market economies
Information technology
intellectual property
basic research funding
spillovers & synergies
academic and industrial clusters
first mover advantages
gains from imitation
network and cluster effects
user networks and declining costs
ON THE SHOULDERS OF GIANTS
KEY TRENDS IN INFORMATION
TECHNOLOGY
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MAINFRAME TO PC – information becomes more accessible.
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MOORE’S LAW: chip speed double ever 18 months
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MEMORIES improve
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PRIVATE NETWORKS: data can be exchanged through softwaredefined channels.
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INTERNET, INTRANET, AND WEB: open networks
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CLOUD COMPUTING: move functionalities back into network through
software and
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CHEAP INFORMATION APPLIANCES: put software intelligence in
network, off personal computer
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES
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fiber optic
packet switching
storage
Private and virtual
private networks
• computer assisted
design, manufacture,
engineering
• world wide web
• cloud computing
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outsourcing
joint ventures
strategic alliances
LDC development
cyber-communities
R&D consortia
open source
Open innovation
INFORMATION ARENAS
•outsourcing
•joint ventures
•strategic alliances
•consortium research
•cyber-communities
•open source
•open innovation
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outsourcing
joint ventures
strategic alliances
LDC development
cyber-communities
R&D consortia
open source
Open innovation
CLOUD COMPUTING
• Computing platforms in the network, not the edge
• Network provides software-enabled virtual services
• PCs need less or no software; they became cheaper
and enable more connectivity
• Less need for dedicated capital expenditures
• Dynamically scalable
• Providers: Sun, IBM, Amazon, Google, Yahoo,
Microsoft, Vmware
• Users: General Electric, Procter & Gamble, Vmware
SOFTWARE NETWORKS IN
BANGALORE
• General Electric installed first dam in 1902
• Understood Indian competence in S&T
• Established campus in Bangalore for
engineering research
• Developed outsourcing center: 22,000
• Call center, back office, software development,
product design, R&D
• Virtual plastics plant: Spain/India
• 50% of GE’s software is now developed in India
WHAT SOFTWARE ENABLES
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Instant access to manufacturing process -- CAD, CAM, CAE
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Process modularity, optimal location, and feedback
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Wider connectivity, cyber-meshes, and team production
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Cloud computing- information in network, not nodes
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Interactivity, Virtual organization, and experimental science
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Knowledge Emergence
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Academic, government, & business interconnection
OPEN RESEARCH &
INNOVATION
• Conducted in real or virtual research groups
• Primary data and methodologies can be posted which can be
added to/interpreted by any qualified collaborators.
• Virtual scientific experiments are possible
• Knowledge emerges and end-products arise from many
contributions distributed throughout the network.
• Can be preferred to proprietary research if positive network
effects arise from collaboration
ACADEMIC SCIENCE
• Academics share ideas: German metals, U.S.
agriculture
• Industry partnerships; government roundtables
• Academic goes commercial: U.S. Biotechnology
• Spillovers and local economy effects: Stanford, MIT
• National competitive advantage: Japan, Korea,
Taiwan
VIRTUAL ORGANIZATIONS
• A virtual organization is one whose members are
geographically apart, usually working by
computer e-mail and groupware while appearing
to others to be a single, unified organization with
a real physical location.
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– VIRTUAL CORPORATIONS outsource the majority
of functions
– VIRTUAL BUSINESSES operate without a
corresponding physical identity and transact
entirely via the Internet
– VIRTUAL ENTERPRISES share resources to
achieve their goals
CLUSTERS & CRITICAL MASSES
• Factor endowment or academic/research geographic core
• Increase cost-economies and process productivities through
relationships, scale/scope efficiencies and network effects
• Extend core competencies through learning-by-doing and
information-sharing
• Educated labor pool and social relationships
• Create innovations, spin-offs, and economic zones
• Foreign investors, partners, joint ventures, strategic alliances
HI-TECH CLUSTERS
• Computer U.S.: Silicon Valley, Boston, Austin,
Research Triangle, Seattle, Albany
• Pharma and Biotech: New Jersey, New Mexico,
Research Triangle, Leiden, Switzerland,
• Europe: Delft, Eindhoven, Oeiras, Heidelberg,
Stockholm (telecom), Hilversum (multimedia),
Toulouse (aerospace), Grenoble (microtechnologies), Cambridge (biotech), Tuttlingen
(surgical instruments)
SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT
• system of agents and technologies involved in transform raw
materials and components into deliverable product
• production links include extraction, component construction,
assembly, merging, transportation, storage, & distribution.
• optimization balances sourcing, distribution capacity,
inventory costs, and T&D.
• global supply chains: Ford, Intel, Apple, Boeing
• manufacture parts, not products
• nations develop and specialize in core competencies.
UKRAINIAN SOFTWARE AND
OUTSOURCING
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• Termed most attractive and fastest growing outsourcing
destination in East. Europe by GoalEurope.com.
• Market size $246 million in 2006, up 47% from previous year .
• 30,000 IT graduates per year
• Of the 70 companies interviewed, seven employed 300+ people
whilst 21 had 100+.
• Economically competitive with EU
• Poland and other EU members now seek qualified IT resources
in Ukraine.
• Germany employs 6% of all outsourcing resources in Ukraine.
• Big firms: Siemens, Phillips, Alcatel, Flextronics, HP
VIRTUAL DESIGN IN UKRAINE
• planes, ships, trucks buses, cars, trains
• computer and electronic equipment,
• precision instruments
• agricultural machines and sugar refining,
• TV and radiosets,
• chemicals and textiles
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OUTSOURCING, DIFFUSION, & GLOBALIZATION
UKRAINIAN METALS
• 25% of industrial output and 40% of goods exports
• vast deposits of iron/manganese ores and bauxite
• coking coal and non-metallic materials – limestone, molding
sand, and refractory clay.
• gold, titanium, potassium, magnesium, table salt, sulfur
• dense transport network = efficient delivery of raw materials
and goods to the plants.
• reliable workforce training
• machine building industry and other industrial buyers
• superconducting materials, hard alloys, and pure metals
• export goods and ideas ?
• import Western/Japanese/Chinese technology ?
UKRAINIAN AGRICULTURE
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Wheat harvesting and sugar refining
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Ukrainian research labs (e.g., soil at Lviv & Odessa)
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American land grant universities
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Pollution, toxicity, and pest control
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fertilizer production
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water use and dams
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farm machinery (metals)
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plant genetics and new products
UKRAINIAN ENERGY
• oil substitutes: coal, shale, hydro electric
• safe nuclear
• alternatives: wind, thermal waters, safe nuclear
• superconductivity
• smart (software modulated) grids
• Improved metallurgy
SMART ELECTRICITY GRIDS
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dispatch/routing: automatic efficient self-healing
programmable and controllable appliances
metering, real time pricing, load shedding
can integrate power and telecom channels
now receives 50%+ of venture K in U.S.
cleantech sector
smart devices/integration: Cisco/Google
wide area: Smart Grids Technology in Europe
local: Austin (TX), Ontario, Telegestore (IT)
U.S 2009: $11 b of government aid
ECONOMIC PRESCRIPTION
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Extend advantages in ag & mining; move beyond commodity-based
economy
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Promote core competencies in STEM; develop educational and
research bases and networks
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Use IT to integrate core-specific technologies with global community
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Develop local economic clusters in ag/mining/academic regions;
outsource when possible to rural areas.
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Produce parts and Integrate into global supply chains
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Create accounting transparency; seek direct foreign investment
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Promote exports in world markets; encourage domestic savings