Download F-81-R-5, Michigan

F-80-R-12, Michigan
Study 230756
New Study: 2010-11
Name of Study: Development of Management Scenarios for Lake and Stream Habitat and Fisheries
under Current and Future Land-Use and Climate Conditions
A. Problem: Successful management of lake and stream habitats and their associated fisheries
requires identification of priorities for protecting, enhancing, and restoring aquatic systems.
Water bodies can be prioritized based on their sensitivity to human activities and on the
ecological, social, and economic values they provide. It has long been recognized that human
activities in the watershed strongly modify physicochemical and biological conditions in lakes
and streams (Wang et al. 2008, Wang et al. in preparation) and that climate determines the spatial
and temporal patterns of physicochemical and biological characteristics of aquatic ecosystems
(Wang et al. 2003; Eaton and Scheller 1996). Because the impacts of land-use and climate
conditions are not the same for all aquatic ecosystem types, and because society values different
types of aquatic resources differently, managers have to prioritize their resources and time to
those aquatic systems that are most vulnerable to impacts and have high social and economic
values. Presently, such prioritization tools are not available but are urgently needed by aquatic
resource managers and policy makers.
The physical and chemical characteristics of lakes and streams are important components of fish
habitat and play a major role in determining fishery potential. Habitat features such as thermal
and hydrologic regimes, trophic state, and oxygen concentrations affect fish mortality, growth,
and size structure, which in turn influence patterns of species distribution, abundance, and
community structure. Consequently, assessing habitat conditions and quantifying their role in
structuring fish communities and regulating population characteristics are necessary for
developing effective management strategies. Currently, assessing habitat conditions is limited to
those waters where recent surveys have been conducted. Because managers and policy-makers
are responsible for all lakes and streams in the state, it would be highly desirable to have a
method that allows the assessment of habitat conditions in all water bodies statewide.
The habitats of lakes and streams are controlled, in part, by large scale factors such as climate and
landscape setting (Wang et al 2003; Wang et al 2008). The influence of large scale factors on fish
habitat has two important consequences. First, the diversity of lake and stream types can be
readily classified into groups based on large scale factors (Breck et al. in preparation; Brenden et
al 2008; Wehrly et al. in preparation). Classification enables managers to make generalizations
across classes of waters and provides a cost-effective method for assessing aquatic habitats
statewide. Second, human activities, both current and future, have the potential to greatly alter
aquatic habitats and the fisheries they support. As a result, we must understand how the habitat
suitability of lakes and streams is and will be affected by current and future patterns of climate
and land uses.
Additionally, identifying management priorities of lakes and streams requires information about
how society values those systems because the recreational and aesthetic benefits a resource
provides also determines which management actions should be applied and whether management
actions are even worthwhile. Although no previous work has been done to comprehensively
incorporate human dimension into management prioritization processes in Michigan, the decadeslong angler survey data, the recently developed statewide lake and stream databases, and the
recent advancement in GIS technology make this task feasible.
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How the habitat suitability of lakes and streams is and will be affected by current and future
patterns of climate and land uses and how our society uses and values aquatic resource types is
the information that fisheries managers and policy makers must have for prioritizing management
efforts, developing strategies for those waters where management efforts may be more successful,
and educating policy makers and the public about the need to change management practices in
response to changes in lake and stream fisheries due to land-use and climate changes.
B. Objectives: The overall objective of this project is to develop a tool that incorporates land-use
and climate change scenarios and societal values of lakes and streams to identify management
priorities based on assessed sensitivity and risk. The specific objectives of this study are to:
1. Assess habitat conditions for all lakes and streams statewide under current land-use and
climate conditions.
2. Determine how current habitat conditions influence sport fish populations and fish
community structure in lakes and streams
3. Determine the potential changes in habitat suitability, sport fish populations, and fish
community structure in response to changes in land-use and climate conditions.
4. Identify and map the lakes and streams that are most at risk to change.
5. Develop statistical models to predict how anglers use lake and stream resources at a statewide
scale.
6. Generate information for evaluating none-fisheries uses of lake and stream resources at a
statewide scale using GIS techniques.
7. Prioritize lakes and streams for management based on their habitat and fisheries risks and
social uses and values.
C. Expected Results and Benefits: An integrated GIS database that contains all river reaches and
lakes for the state will be developed. This database will provide users with comprehensive
information about all Michigan’s inland aquatic systems (except wetlands), which is invaluable to
ecosystem management planning, policy development, and local management decision-making.
In addition to the landscape and local data that were developed by previous studies, this database
will contain newly synthesized or modeled information related to habitat suitability, sport fish
populations, fish community structure, and human uses of lakes and streams. This database will
also contain location, health status, and associated societal values for the river reaches and lakes
that are most vulnerable to current and projected climate and land-use changes. Peer reviewed
journal articles associated with each objective will be prepared and published.
The results and deliverables of this project will provide management agencies and the public with
(1) a better understanding of how fish populations and fish community types are shaped by both
regional- and site-scale factors, which is critically important for science-based management
decision making; (2) an assessment of habitat conditions in all lakes and streams under current
land-use and climate conditions for managers to protect intact, to restore degraded, and to
enhance modified systems; (3) projected habitat conditions for all lakes and streams under future
land-use and climate conditions for managers to use for adjusting and adapting management
practices; and (4) a list of at-risk ecosystems based on current and future habitat conditions and
social and economic values of lakes and streams for managers to prioritize management efforts.
D. Procedures: The existing stream and lake databases will be integrated into one database. A
stream database that includes all confluence-to-confluence stream reaches in Michigan, their
associated network and local catchment, and their major landscape and network descriptors has
F-80-R-12, Study 230756 - 3
been developed by a previous federal aid project during 2005-2009. A lake database that contains
all lakes that are 5 acres or bigger, their tributary and local catchment boundaries, and major
landscape and network descriptors has also been developed by an on-going federal aid project
(2008-2011). This project will integrate these two databases into one database and expand the
database with additional data generated by this project. To enable assessment of all waters, we
will develop models that predict responses of habitat to changes in land-use and climate for the
major types of streams (Brenden et al. 2008, Lyons et al. 2009) and lakes (Wehrly et al. in
preparation) based on classifications developed in this region. We will refine temperature models
for predicting river temperature (Wehrly et al. 2009) and lake surface temperature (Breck, in
preparation) developed for this region. Air temperature, flow regime, and groundwater
contribution will be included as key predictors of these temperature models. Projected land-use
changes for every five years from 2000 to 2040 will be used to evaluate changes in habitat under
different land use scenarios. The projected land-use changes for Michigan will be provided by a
complementary project that is funded by USGS for modeling land-use changes at 300-m
resolution across the lower 48 states and at 100-m resolution for the Midwestern states. In this
process, we will also use fish community data collected from lake and stream Status and Trends
surveys, predicted river flow discharge and groundwater contribution potentials for all river
reaches (including those flowing in and out of the lakes), and continuous summer water
temperature for many river reaches and lakes in Michigan. We will use down-scaled climate
model outputs and predicted land-use changes as inputs in our temperature and flow models to
project potential changes in flow and thermal regimes for the river reaches and lakes in the state.
The down-scaled climate model outputs, including projected air temperature and precipitation
changes for every five years from 2010 to 2040, will be provided by a complementary USGS
funded project for the Midwestern states. These flow and thermal regime predictions will
incorporate the uncertainty/scenarios in the climate and land-use change models. We will identify
all the stream reaches and lakes and associated fish communities that are most vulnerable to
climate and land-use changes for the purpose of recommending adaptive management scenarios.
We will synthesize societal uses information by compiling available databases, such as fishing
license sale database, fish stocking database, and fishing access database, to synthesize societal
use information. We will also use human population data and GIS tools to measure proximity of
lakes and streams to population centers. Additionally, Michigan DNR has been conducting angler
surveys on inland waters for several decades. A total of 221 angler surveys have been conducted
for inland waters in Michigan since the1980s. We will link the anglers’ survey data with fish
stocking, proximity to population centers, water body types, and other relevant information to
predict angler uses for all waters statewide. Because of the sparseness of the angler survey data,
we will use regression techniques to examine factors affecting angling effort and harvest, and
establish statistical models that can be used to predict fishing activities and harvest for inland
waters for which no angler survey estimates are available. A similar approach has been used to
estimate statewide angling effort and harvest for inland lakes in Minnesota (Cook and Younk
2001).
We will last develop two sets of management scenarios. The first set of scenarios will be the lake
and stream management priorities determined based on the current land-use and climate
conditions and the societal values of those waters. The second set of scenarios will be the lake
and stream management priorities identified based on the projected land-use and climate
conditions and the societal values of those waters.
Job 1. Develop statistical models to estimate seasonal and annual temperature patterns in lakes
and streams.
F-80-R-12, Study 230756 - 4
Job 2. Develop statistical and simulation models to estimate lake temperature and oxygen
profiles.
Job 3. Develop statistical models that describe the relations between fish community types and
habitat variables.–For streams these include stream size, water temperature, and stream
flow regimes. For lakes, these include surface temperatures, stratification pattern, and
oxygen concentrations.
Job 4. Develop and calibrate a bioenergetics-based fish community models to simulate the size
and age structure of fish populations as a function of habitat variables.–The
bioenergetics-based fish community models will predict changes in age and size structure
for populations of both prey and predator species in response to differences in
temperature, productivity, and lake morphology under current and future land-use and
climate conditions.
Job 5. Assemble and generate data that describe societal uses of lakes and streams.
Job 6. Develop statistical models to estimate fishing effort and harvest.
Job 7. Assess potential changes in habitat suitability, fish community types, changes in size and
age structure of fish populations, and fishing effort and harvest under alternative climate
and land-use change scenarios.
Job 8. Identify and map stream and lake types that are most vulnerable to current and future
land-use and climate conditions.
Job 9. Write annual performance reports.
Job 10. Write manuscripts for publication.–Fisheries research reports or journal publications will
be prepared describing the findings of the project.
Job 11. Publish manuscripts.–This job entails final editing and printing of the research
manuscript or journal article produced under job 10.
Job 12. Write final report.–A final report citing the publications produced under job 11 will be
prepared.
F-80-R-12, Study 230756 - 5
E. Schedule/Budget1:
Proposed work
Job 1
Job 2
Job 3
Job 4
Job 5
Develop temperature models
Develop lake profile models
Develop fish community/habitat models
Develop bioenergetics models
Assemble and generate human dimension
data
Job 6 Develop fishing effort and harvest
models
Job 7 Assess future habitat and fish changes
Job 8 Identify and map vulnerable waters
Job 9 Write annual performance reports
Job 10 Write manuscripts
Job 11 Publish manuscripts
Job 12 Write final report
Totals
1
2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
23,764
20,340
15,177
12,310
15,012
10,474
23,396
5,072
NA
7,693
10,788
11,472
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
15,242
9,614
NA
NA
NA
9,642
NA
NA
1,457
NA
NA
NA
17,086
NA
NA
1,501
NA
NA
NA
NA
12,801
20,474
1,546
30,176
NA
NA
NA
25,902
27,407
1,593
28,574
10,840
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
17,715
2,157
97,932
82,155
94,950
94,316
19,872
NA = not scheduled
F. Geographical Location: Michigan statewide
G. Personnel: Lizhu Wang, Kevin Wehrly, Jim Breck, Zhenming Su, and Trevor Havelka, Institute
for Fisheries Research, 1109 N. University, Ann Arbor, MI 48109.
Literature Cited:
Breck, J. E., K. E. Wehrly, L. Wang, and L. Szabo-Kraft. In Preparation. Landscape based
classification of Michigan inland lakes for resource management.
Brenden, T., L. Wang, and P. W. Seelbach. 2008. A landscape-based river classification system for
Michigan rivers and streams for fisheries and environmental management. Transactions of
American Fisheries Society 137: 1621-1636.
Cook, M. F. and J. A. Younk. 2001. A recalculation of the annual statewide recreational fishing effort
and harvest in Minnesota lakes. Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, Investigation
Report 493.
Eaton, J. G., and R. M. Scheller. 1996. Effects of climate warming on fish thermal habitat in streams
of the United States. Limnology and Oceanography 41: 1109-1115.
Lyons, J., T. Zorn, J. Stewart, P. Seelbach, K. Wehrly, L. Wang. 2009. Defining and characterizing
coolwater streams and their fish assemblages in Michigan and Wisconsin, USA. North American
Journal of Fisheries Management 29: 1130–1151.
Wang, L., T. Brenden, P. W. Seelbach, A. Cooper, D. Allan, R. Clark, Jr., and M. Wiley. 2008.
Landscape based identification of human disturbance gradients and references for streams in
Michigan. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 141: 1-17.
F-80-R-12, Study 230756 - 6
Wang, L., J. Lyons, P. Rasmussen, P. Kanehl, P. Seelbach, T. Simon, M. Wiley, E. Baker, S.
Niemela, and M. Stewart. 2003. Influences of landscape- and reach-scale habitat on stream fish
communities in the Northern Lakes and Forest ecoregion. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and
Aquatic Science 60: 491-505.
Wang, L., K. E. Wehrly, J. E. Breck, and L. Kraft. In preparation. Landscape based assessment of
human disturbance in Michigan lakes.
Wehrly, K. E., T. Brenden, and L. Wang. 2009. A comparison of statistical approaches for predicting
stream temperatures across heterogeneous landscapes. Journal of the American Water Resources
Association 45: 986-997.
Wehrly, K. E., L. Wang, J. E. Breck, and L. Kraft. In preparation. Landscape based fisheries
classification for Michigan inland lakes.