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Estimating regional sources and sinks of CO2 for North America Using NOAA-CMDL measurements and the TM5 model Wouter Peters, NOAA CMDL TRANSCOM May 13th, 2003 Acknowledgements Maarten Krol Pieter Tans Lori Bruhwiler Sander Houweling Peter Bergamaschi Peter van Velthoven Frank Dentener Jan Fokke Meirink John Miller Outline My background The TM5 global & regional model The expanded NOAA-CMDL network Plans for inversions Kalman filter 4d-var My background Master’s in meteorology and physical oceanography from University of Utrecht Thesis work on LBA-CLAIRE, airborne campaign in Suriname, South America. PhD on tropospheric ozone in the tropics with Jos Lelieveld and Maarten Krol. TM3 global model 5x3.75 degrees, 19 layers ECMWF meteorology (1979-1993, and 19941999) Full chemistry (O3-NOx-CO-CH4, lumped NMHC’s) + coupled photolysis Extensive budgets of all processes Fast parallel version (<2 CPU hrs/yr) allowing multi-year simulations or sensitivity tests TM5: the next generation New advection algorithm (Berkvens, Botchev, Krol, Verwer, 2001) allows online nesting of fine-scaled grids within a global domain. TM5 model – coarse grid TM5 model – medium grid TM5 model – fine grid TM5 model – vertical resolution 25 vertical layers Hybrid coordinates values for US standard atmosphere p [hPa] h [km] 0.0 1.0 3.0 7.1 16.8 39.6 60.2 87.7 122.6 165.1 215.0 272.1 336.0 406.1 480.8 558.0 635.3 710.3 780.3 843.3 897.1 940.6 973.0 994.7 1007.3 1013.3 inf 48.2 39.3 33.3 27.6 22.1 19.1 16.9 14.8 13.0 11.3 9.8 8.4 7.1 5.9 4.8 3.8 2.9 2.1 1.5 1.0 0.62 0.34 0.16 0.05 0.00 ~ 8 layers stratosphere ~ 12 layers free troposphere ~ 5 layers PBL TM5 Contributions from IMAU, KNMI, JRC, and in the near future NOAA. Most important improvements: meteorological input, coding, chemical boundary conditions. Special emphasis: ERA40=> re-analysis of ECMWF for 1957-2001. Resolution up to ECMWF operational TM5 – latest developments Adjoint version of TM5 under con struction 4d-var scheme from ECMWF implemented and working Kalman filter (Baker, Bruhwiler, Tans) to be implemented 222Rn simulations at different resolutions Courtesy: H. Sartorius IAR-Freiburg My plans Forward modeling of CO2 + isotopes, SF6 Inverse modeling of CO2 + isotopes Regional scale sources/sinks over the US Using vertical profile/ tall tower data Possibly assist in planning and optimizing network design/sampling strategies NOAA CMDL goals ?????? Current network 2005 network ? 2010 network ?? Proposed TM5 grid Proposed TM5 grid Denver Aspen Grand Junction Pueblo Durango Regions for inversion Fixed-lag Kalman smoother ‘Batch’ inversion technique using n-months of information at a time (3 < n < 9) Calculates new fluxes and error estimates for xJ=0 (where x= fluxes and J = cost function) Balances prior flux estimates against new information from observations using prior flux and model-data mismatch Computationally efficient for multi-decadal inversions Details: David Baker’s talk tomorrow 4d-var o o o o Uses steepest descend and the calculated value of xJ to minimize J value of xJ calculated by adjoint model Iterative scheme to converge to xJ = 0 Useful for short time periods and many observations Seasonal CO2 Flux Estimates Gt/yr Land Gt/yr Ocean NCEP (1984-2000) ECMWF (1981-1993) PRIOR Annual Average Flux Estimates Land NCEP (1984-2000) ECMWF (1981-1992) PRIOR Ocean Annual Average Flux Estimates with Cyclic Meteorology Land NCEP (1984-2000) NCEP (1990) PRIOR Ocean Interface: Mixture between ‘fine’ and ‘coarse’: = + Interface Zoom XYZV VZYX xyz vzy vzy xyz v x x v Write BC Interface Zoom Update parent