Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Famine Early Warning Systems Network Food Security Update 28 July 2016 The bulk of the country will in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) June to September 2016 October 2016 to January 2017 __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 1 Lower than typical regional maize availability 2016-17 Zambia South Africa • Carry over stocks o 2.3 million Mt (mainly from imports) • Carry over stocks o 667,500 Mt • 2015-16 Production o 7.73 million Mt (40% of ave) • 2015-16 Production • 2.87 million Mt (10% above 2015) • 2016-17 Deficit o 1.6 million Mt • 2016-17 Surplus o 634,700 Mt • Est. Exports o 600,000 Mt • Est. Exports o 167,000 Mt to Spt (old contracts) • Est. Imports o 3.3 Million Mt (1ml Mt white, 2.2 MT yellow • Est. Imports o 0 Mt maize) __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 2 Higher than typical maize grain imports • April-June 2016 maize imports (174,000 MT) are 62% higher than same time last year (107,000 MT) • Of the April-June ‘16 imports, 45% from SA, 19% Zambia, the rest (36%) from international markets. • Landing prices from international markets significantly higher than from regional markets __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 3 Projected higher than average maize grain prices for 2016-17 marketing season __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 4 Key Assumptions for the June 1’6 to Jan ‘17 Outlook Period Higher than normal cereal deficit – June 2016 to January 2017 Poor water availability: June to October Normal to above normal rains: November 2016 to March 2017 Maize grain prices: higher than last year and 5-year Maize meal prices: expected increase later in the consumption year Livelihoods options: below average (cash crop sales, livestock sales, agric & non-agric labor & self employment, remittances); also below average labor rates Acute malnutrition: high and increasing Inter-annual and emergency assistance: resource constraints __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 5 Critical water shortages in much of the south and marginal areas in the north to impact on livelihoods __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 6 Below average typical livelihoods and coping options __________________________________________ FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 7