Download Probability Distributions

Probability Distributions
Signals and Systems in Biology
Kushal Shah @ EE, IIT Delhi
Random Variable
I
A number assigned to every outcome of an experiment.
I
A function whose domain is the set of all experimental outcomes
X :Ω→R
I
I
X is defined on probability space
I What is P (X = x )?
.
I Ex : For a roll of a fair dice, P (X = 5) = 1 6 = P (X = 1)
I 0 ≤ P (X = x ) ≤ 1
∀x
I ∑ P (x ) = 1
x
Ω can be a discrete or continuous set
Random Variable
I
A number assigned to every outcome of an experiment.
I
A function whose domain is the set of all experimental outcomes
X :Ω→R
I
I
X is defined on probability space
I What is P (X = x )?
.
I Ex : For a roll of a fair dice, P (X = 5) = 1 6 = P (X = 1)
I 0 ≤ P (X = x ) ≤ 1
∀x
I ∑ P (x ) = 1
x
Ω can be a discrete or continuous set
Random Variable
I
A number assigned to every outcome of an experiment.
I
A function whose domain is the set of all experimental outcomes
X :Ω→R
I
I
X is defined on probability space
I What is P (X = x )?
.
I Ex : For a roll of a fair dice, P (X = 5) = 1 6 = P (X = 1)
I 0 ≤ P (X = x ) ≤ 1
∀x
I ∑ P (x ) = 1
x
Ω can be a discrete or continuous set
Random Variable
I
A number assigned to every outcome of an experiment.
I
A function whose domain is the set of all experimental outcomes
X :Ω→R
I
I
X is defined on probability space
I What is P (X = x )?
.
I Ex : For a roll of a fair dice, P (X = 5) = 1 6 = P (X = 1)
I 0 ≤ P (X = x ) ≤ 1
∀x
I ∑ P (x ) = 1
x
Ω can be a discrete or continuous set
Random Variable
I
A number assigned to every outcome of an experiment.
I
A function whose domain is the set of all experimental outcomes
X :Ω→R
I
I
X is defined on probability space
I What is P (X = x )?
.
I Ex : For a roll of a fair dice, P (X = 5) = 1 6 = P (X = 1)
I 0 ≤ P (X = x ) ≤ 1
∀x
I ∑ P (x ) = 1
x
Ω can be a discrete or continuous set
Random Variable
I
A number assigned to every outcome of an experiment.
I
A function whose domain is the set of all experimental outcomes
X :Ω→R
I
I
X is defined on probability space
I What is P (X = x )?
.
I Ex : For a roll of a fair dice, P (X = 5) = 1 6 = P (X = 1)
I 0 ≤ P (X = x ) ≤ 1
∀x
I ∑ P (x ) = 1
x
Ω can be a discrete or continuous set
Random Variable
I
A number assigned to every outcome of an experiment.
I
A function whose domain is the set of all experimental outcomes
X :Ω→R
I
I
X is defined on probability space
I What is P (X = x )?
.
I Ex : For a roll of a fair dice, P (X = 5) = 1 6 = P (X = 1)
I 0 ≤ P (X = x ) ≤ 1
∀x
I ∑ P (x ) = 1
x
Ω can be a discrete or continuous set
Random Variable
I
A number assigned to every outcome of an experiment.
I
A function whose domain is the set of all experimental outcomes
X :Ω→R
I
I
X is defined on probability space
I What is P (X = x )?
.
I Ex : For a roll of a fair dice, P (X = 5) = 1 6 = P (X = 1)
I 0 ≤ P (X = x ) ≤ 1
∀x
I ∑ P (x ) = 1
x
Ω can be a discrete or continuous set
Probability Distribution Function
When Ω is a continuous set,
I P (X = x ) = 0 ∀x (usually)
I P (x < X < x + dx ) = f (x ) dx

Probability Distribution Function [PDF]

I f (x ) ≡
Probability Density Function


Probability Function
I Cumulative Distribution Function [CDF] or Mass Function
FX (x ) = P (X ≤ x )
ˆ x
=
−∞
fX (x ) dx
d
lim F (x ) = 1
x →∞ X
F (x )
⇒ fX (x ) =
dx X
ˆ ∞
f (x ) dx = 1
−∞
f (x ) ≥ 0∀x
Probability Distribution Function
When Ω is a continuous set,
I P (X = x ) = 0 ∀x (usually)
I P (x < X < x + dx ) = f (x ) dx

Probability Distribution Function [PDF]

I f (x ) ≡
Probability Density Function


Probability Function
I Cumulative Distribution Function [CDF] or Mass Function
FX (x ) = P (X ≤ x )
ˆ x
=
−∞
fX (x ) dx
d
lim F (x ) = 1
x →∞ X
F (x )
⇒ fX (x ) =
dx X
ˆ ∞
f (x ) dx = 1
−∞
f (x ) ≥ 0∀x
Probability Distribution Function
When Ω is a continuous set,
I P (X = x ) = 0 ∀x (usually)
I P (x < X < x + dx ) = f (x ) dx

Probability Distribution Function [PDF]

I f (x ) ≡
Probability Density Function


Probability Function
I Cumulative Distribution Function [CDF] or Mass Function
FX (x ) = P (X ≤ x )
ˆ x
=
−∞
fX (x ) dx
d
lim F (x ) = 1
x →∞ X
F (x )
⇒ fX (x ) =
dx X
ˆ ∞
f (x ) dx = 1
−∞
f (x ) ≥ 0∀x
Probability Distribution Function
When Ω is a continuous set,
I P (X = x ) = 0 ∀x (usually)
I P (x < X < x + dx ) = f (x ) dx

Probability Distribution Function [PDF]

I f (x ) ≡
Probability Density Function


Probability Function
I Cumulative Distribution Function [CDF] or Mass Function
FX (x ) = P (X ≤ x )
ˆ x
=
−∞
fX (x ) dx
d
lim F (x ) = 1
x →∞ X
F (x )
⇒ fX (x ) =
dx X
ˆ ∞
f (x ) dx = 1
−∞
f (x ) ≥ 0∀x
Probability Distribution Function
When Ω is a continuous set,
I P (X = x ) = 0 ∀x (usually)
I P (x < X < x + dx ) = f (x ) dx


Probability Distribution Function [PDF]
I f (x ) ≡
Probability Density Function


Probability Function
I Cumulative Distribution Function [CDF] or Mass Function
FX (x ) = P (X ≤ x )
ˆ x
=
−∞
⇒ fX (x ) =
lim F (x ) = 1
x →∞ X
ˆ
fX (x ) dx
d
F (x )
dx X
∞
−∞
f (x ) dx = 1
f (x ) ≥ 0∀x
Probability Distribution Function
When Ω is a continuous set,
I P (X = x ) = 0 ∀x (usually)
I P (x < X < x + dx ) = f (x ) dx


Probability Distribution Function [PDF]
I f (x ) ≡
Probability Density Function


Probability Function
I Cumulative Distribution Function [CDF] or Mass Function
FX (x ) = P (X ≤ x )
ˆ x
=
−∞
fX (x ) dx
d
lim F (x ) = 1
x →∞ X
F (x )
⇒ fX (x ) =
dx X
ˆ ∞
f (x ) dx = 1
−∞
f (x ) ≥ 0∀x
PDF and CDF
When Ω is a continuous set,
I
I
I
P (X = x ) = 0 ∀x (usually)
P (x < X < x + dx ) = f (x ) dx
´x
FX (x ) = P (X ≤ x ) = −∞
fX (x ) dx
Example of PDF : Schrodinger’s equation
ψ (x ) : Quantum Wave Function
−
h̄2 ∂ 2 ψ
= [E − V (x )] ψ
2m ∂ x 2
m : Mass of the particle
E : Energy of the particle
V (x ) : Potential energy due to the force field
|ψ (x )|2 dx : probability of a particle to be in the region (x , x + dx )
Discrete Distributions
Bernoulli Distribution :
P (X = 1) = p
P (X = 0 ) = q = 1 − p
Binomial Distribution :
n
P (Y = k ) =
p k q n−k ,
k
Ex : No. of forward steps in a random walk
k = 0, 1, 2, ..., n
Discrete Distributions
Bernoulli Distribution :
P (X = 1) = p
P (X = 0 ) = q = 1 − p
Binomial Distribution :
n
P (Y = k ) =
p k q n−k ,
k
Ex : No. of forward steps in a random walk
k = 0, 1, 2, ..., n
Discrete Distributions
Bernoulli Distribution :
P (X = 1) = p
P (X = 0 ) = q = 1 − p
Binomial Distribution :
n
P (Y = k ) =
p k q n−k ,
k
Ex : No. of forward steps in a random walk
k = 0, 1, 2, ..., n
Normal (Gaussian) Distribution
f (x ) = √
1
2πσ
e
2
−(x −µ)2
.
2σ 2
µ : Mean
σ 2 : Variance
I Distribution of velocities of molecules
I Central Limit Theorem (CLT)
∼ N µ, σ 2
Normal (Gaussian) Distribution
f (x ) = √
1
2πσ
e
2
−(x −µ)2
.
2σ 2
µ : Mean
σ 2 : Variance
I Distribution of velocities of molecules
I Central Limit Theorem (CLT)
∼ N µ, σ 2
Normal (Gaussian) Distribution
f (x ) = √
1
2πσ
e
2
−(x −µ)2
.
2σ 2
µ : Mean
σ 2 : Variance
I Distribution of velocities of molecules
I Central Limit Theorem (CLT)
∼ N µ, σ 2
Central Limit Theorem (CLT) : Bernoulli Trials
Xi ∈ {0, 1}
P {Xi = 1} = p
P {Xi = 0} = q = 1 − p
2
µ = p
σ = pq
X1 + X2 + · · · + Xn
Fraction of successes in n trials
Xn =
n
k
P Xn =
n
= b (n, p , k ) =
n
k
p k q n−k
By CLT,
f Xn = x
(x − µ)2
∼ N µ,
=q
exp
−
2 n
n
2
σ
2
2πσ n
"
#
1
(x − p )2
= q
exp − 2pq n
2π pq n
σ2
1
"
#
Central Limit Theorem (CLT) : Bernoulli Trials
Xi ∈ {0, 1}
P {Xi = 1} = p
P {Xi = 0} = q = 1 − p
2
µ = p
σ = pq
X1 + X2 + · · · + Xn
Fraction of successes in n trials
Xn =
n
k
P Xn =
n
= b (n, p , k ) =
n
k
p k q n−k
By CLT,
f Xn = x
(x − µ)2
∼ N µ,
=q
exp
−
2 n
n
2
σ
2
2πσ n
"
#
1
(x − p )2
= q
exp − 2pq n
2π pq n
σ2
1
"
#
Central Limit Theorem (CLT) : Bernoulli Trials
Xi ∈ {0, 1}
P {Xi = 1} = p
P {Xi = 0} = q = 1 − p
2
µ = p
σ = pq
X1 + X2 + · · · + Xn
Fraction of successes in n trials
Xn =
n
k
P Xn =
n
= b (n, p , k ) =
n
k
p k q n−k
By CLT,
f Xn = x
(x − µ)2
∼ N µ,
=q
exp
−
2 n
n
2
σ
2
2πσ n
"
#
1
(x − p )2
= q
exp − 2pq n
2π pq n
σ2
1
"
#
Central Limit Theorem (CLT) : Bernoulli Trials
Xi ∈ {0, 1}
P {Xi = 1} = p
P {Xi = 0} = q = 1 − p
2
µ = p
σ = pq
X1 + X2 + · · · + Xn
Xn =
Fraction of successes in n trials
n
k
P Xn =
n
= b (n, p , k ) =
n
k
p k q n−k
By CLT,
f Xn = x
(x − µ)2
∼ N µ,
exp
−
=q
n
2σ 2 n
2πσ 2 n
"
#
1
(x − p )2
= q
exp − 2pq n
2π pq n
σ2
1
"
#
Central Limit Theorem (CLT) : Bernoulli Trials
Xi ∈ {0, 1}
P {Xi = 1} = p
P {Xi = 0} = q = 1 − p
2
µ = p
σ = pq
X + X + · · · + Xn
Xn = 1 2
Fraction of successes in n trials
n
k
P Xn =
n
= b (n, p , k ) =
n
k
p k q n−k
By CLT, for large n,
f Xn = x
(x − µ)2
=q
exp
−
∼ N µ,
n
2σ 2 n
2πσ 2 n
"
#
1
(x − p )2
= q
exp − 2pq n
2π pq n
σ2
1
"
#
Central Limit Theorem (CLT) : Bernoulli Trials
Xi ∈ {0, 1}
P {Xi = 1} = p
P {Xi = 0} = q = 1 − p
2
µ = p
σ = pq
X + X + · · · + Xn
Xn = 1 2
Fraction of successes in n trials
n
k
P Xn =
n
= b (n, p , k ) =
n
k
p k q n−k
By CLT, for large n,
f Xn = x
(x − µ)2
=q
exp
−
∼ N µ,
n
2σ 2 n
2πσ 2 n
"
#
1
(x − p )2
= q
exp − 2pq n
2π pq n
σ2
1
"
#
Exponential Distribution
(
λ e −λ t
f (t ) =
0
,
,
t ≥0
otherwise
1λ : Mean
1 λ 2 : Variance
I Arrival time of telephone calls
I Bus arrival times at a bus stop
I Inter nucleotide distancein DNA sequences
Exponential Distribution
(
λ e −λ t
f (t ) =
0
,
,
t ≥0
otherwise
1λ : Mean
1 λ 2 : Variance
I Arrival time of telephone calls
I Bus arrival times at a bus stop
I Inter nucleotide distancein DNA sequences
Exponential Distribution
(
λ e −λ t
f (t ) =
0
,
,
t ≥0
otherwise
1λ : Mean
1 λ 2 : Variance
I Arrival time of telephone calls
I Bus arrival times at a bus stop
I Inter nucleotide distancein DNA sequences
Exponential Distribution
(
λ e −λ t
f (t ) =
0
,
,
t ≥0
otherwise
1λ : Mean
1 λ 2 : Variance
I Arrival time of telephone calls
I Bus arrival times at a bus stop
I Inter nucleotide distance in DNA sequences
Poisson Distribution
P (X = k ) = e −λ
λk
k!
k = 0, 1, 2, 3, ..., ∞
λ : Mean and Variance
I No. of phone calls at an exchange over a fixed duration of time
I No. of printing errors in a book
Poisson and Exponential Distributions
Poisson theorem or Law of rare events :
λk
n
lim
p k q n−k = e −λ
k!
np=λ , n→∞ k
Markov Models
I
Markov Process
I
I
I
I
Markov Property :
Current state depends stochastically only on the previous step
Ex: Random walk or Brownian motion
Non-Markovian processes may have Markovian representation
Hidden Markov Model
I
Markov process with unobserved (hidden) states
Markov Models
I
Markov Process
I
I
I
I
Markov Property :
Current state depends stochastically only on the previous step
Ex: Random walk or Brownian motion
Non-Markovian processes may have Markovian representation
Hidden Markov Model
I
Markov process with unobserved (hidden) states
Markov Models
I
Markov Process
I
I
I
I
Markov Property :
Current state depends stochastically only on the previous step
Ex: Random walk or Brownian motion
Non-Markovian processes may have Markovian representation
Hidden Markov Model
I
Markov process with unobserved (hidden) states
Markov Models
I
Markov Process
I
I
I
I
Markov Property :
Current state depends stochastically only on the previous step
Ex: Random walk or Brownian motion
Non-Markovian processes may have Markovian representation
Hidden Markov Model
I
Markov process with unobserved (hidden) states
Markov Models
I
Markov Process
I
I
I
I
Markov Property :
Current state depends stochastically only on the previous step
Ex: Random walk or Brownian motion
Non-Markovian processes may have Markovian representation
Hidden Markov Model
I
Markov process with unobserved (hidden) states
Markov Models
I
Markov Process
I
I
I
I
Markov Property :
Current state depends stochastically only on the previous step
Ex: Random walk or Brownian motion
Non-Markovian processes may have Markovian representation
Hidden Markov Model
I
Markov process with unobserved (hidden) states