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Global Urban Competitiveness Report （2011-2012） Pengfei Ni Global Urban Competitiveness Project （GUCP） Center for City and Competitiveness (CCC,CASS） China Beijing, 27 June, 2012 《Global Urban Competitiveness Report 2011-2012》 Brief of Research With nearly 100 experts, GUCP project team implemented 2 yea rs' tasks of data collection, organization, verification and compari son, improved the index system and evaluation method, quantitie s analysis and empirical test. The project team members conducte d considerable number of research and discussion, communicated with many experts from countries around the world, and contacte d several city governments for field researches in different countr ies. The team members fully explored and ultimately finished the annual report on the basis of sorting out expert opinions and the c ompletion of the global urban competitiveness assessment. Part 1 Introduction of Analysis Method Ⅰ Global Urban Competitiveness: Background of Research Structure of global production, trade and financial are changing Developed countries such as The United States, Europe,s promote the “Re-industrialization” strategy; Resurgence of Developed countries, trade prot ectionism; Developed countries to increase the savings rate, while Developing countries are improving the rate of consumption Urbans facing re-positioning in The global industrial chain。 The world's new technological revolution is bred。 The new technological revolution will strengthen the sustainable urban competitive ness，affect the competitiveness of various cities Significantly 。 The Urbans of emerging economy rise strongly in the crisis Ⅱ Global Urban Competitiveness : research situation Perspectives Outcomes Inputs Inputs-outcomes Authors and institutions Component Cities Indicators OECD, 2005 1 78 1 Peter Karl Kresl (USA,1999) 3 24 3 Pengfei Ni (China, 2001) 6 200 12 Dong-Sung Cho (Korea, 2006) 3 75 5 William F. Lever and Ivan Turok (UK,1999) 3 - 3 Jianfa Shen (HKSAR, China,2002) 3 286 52 Pengfei Ni (China, 2003) 12 60 199 Douglas Webster (World Bank, 2000) 4 - 75 Augusto Lopez Kela-oluosi (World Economic Forum,2005 ) 3 55 40 David G. Tuerck (USA, 2002) 8 50 37 Abhishek Sharma (USA, 2006) 2 21 27 Dong-Sung Cho (Korea, 2006) 5 75 90 Alvin Diaz (Philippines, 2001) 7 65 71 Robert Huggins (UK, 2003) 3 44 7 Core City Work Team (UK, 2004) 6 50 21 Ⅲ Global Urban Competitiveness: Conceptual Framework Global Urban Competitiveness: The urban competitiveness refers to a city’s ability in rel ation to other cities in the world to attract and translate res ources, control and occupy markets, to create wealth as fast as possible and offer well-being for its residents , which is d etermined by the combination of its enterprise operating fa ctors and industrial systems Concept framework Urban Competitiveness Mechanism A Value C Industry Environment B Urban Competitiveness' Outcome: Value Profit situation is the ultimate demonstration of the city cap acity and a dimensional and comprehensive concept。 In this context, the model is ： UCI= ƒ (ES, EG, EE, ED, EQ, IE) UCI：Urban Competitiveness' index ES：Economy scale EG: Economic Growth EE：Economic levels EQ: Economy quality IE: Exterior Facts ED: Economic density Urban Competitiveness Process: Industry City’s value is created through enterprises. The level of industry system constituted by enterprises determines the level of entire value system. industrial chains R&D production marketing circulate industry manufacture manufacture building trade computers and the software industry building trade transmission, computers and the software industry industry Inside industry system within a city and its connection Urban Competitiveness Input: Environment Urban competitiveness model including six potential variables: UC= ƒ（EQ、LE、LD、LC、GC、PI、LI） UC: the urban competitiveness input; EQ: is the enterprises quality; LE : local environment (factors demand and supply) LD :local demands ; LC：interior structure, reflecting interior connection and aggregation GC： global connection ;( the connection to the exterior, utilize the exterior factors and market and address the chance and challenge); PI：public system; LI：the local infrastructure. Ⅳ Global Urban Competitiveness: Indicator system and Research design Indicator system 2011-2012 Global Competitiveness Indicator System includes: Global Competitiveness Production Indicator System, Global Competitiveness Factor Indicator System Global Competitiveness Industry Indicator System. Production Indicator System is comprised of 6 indicators, n amely, Green GDP, GDP per capita, GDP per Sq Km, GDP grow th, patent applications and transnational enterprises index. Production：Global Competitiveness Indicator System Indicators Measurement target O1 GDP scale Economic scale O2 GDP per capita Development level O3 GDP per Sq Km Economic aggregation Indicators Measuring object O4 GDP growth Economic growth O5 Patent application Technological innovation O6 Transnational enterprises index. International influence Industry Competitiveness Indicator System is formed through no nlinear weighted synthesis after the innovation on 2009-2010 Indu stry Competitiveness Indicator System, industry hierarchy and the global position of 22 industries. Process：Industry Competitiveness Indicator System C Industry Category Indicator C Industrial Segment Indicator C3.1.1Defense aviation industry index C3.2.1Defense aviation industry segment index C3.1.2Banking industry index C3.2.2Banking industry segment index C3.1.3Business service industry index C3.2.3Business service industry segment index C3.1.4Financial capital industry index C3.2.4Financial capital industry segment index C3.1.5Chemistry industry index C3.2.5Chemistry industry segment index C3.1.6 Hard goods industry index C3.2.6Hard goods industry segment index C3.1.7multifunctional fiancé industry index C3.2.7multifunctional fiancé industry segment index C3.1.8Pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry inde x C3.2.8Pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry segment inde x C3.1.9 Health medical devices industry index C3.2.9 Health medical devices industry segment index C3.1.10Fittingindustry index C3.2.10Fittingindustry segment index C Industry Category Indicator C Industrial Segment Indicator C3.1.11Insurance industry index C3.2.11Insurance industry segment index C3.1.12Journalism industry index C3.2.12Journalism industry segment index C3.1.13Retail industry index C3.2.13Retail industry segment index C3.1.14Semiconductor industry index C3.2.14Semiconductor industry segment index C3.1.15Software industry index C3.2.15Software industry segment index C3.1.16Hardware equipment manufacturing industry index C3.2.16Hardware equipment manufacturing industry segment index C3.1.17 Telecommunication industry index C3.2.17 Telecommunication industry segment index C3.1.18Commerce industry index C3.2.18Commerce industry segment index C3.1.19Municipal facility industry C3.2.19Municipal facility industry segment index C3.1.20Material industry index C3.2.20 Material industry segment index C3.1.21 Transportation industry index C3.2.21 Transportation industry segment index C3.1.22 Energy industry index C3.2.22 Energy industry segment index Industry Competitiveness indicator system is formed through nonlinear weighted synthesis after the innovatio n on 2009-2010 Industry Competitiveness Indicator Sys tem, industry hierarchy and the global position of 22 ind ustries. Investment： Factor Environment Indicator System Indicators Measuring objects I1 Enterprises quality Indicators Measuring objects I4.60.000-bed hospital Medical facility I1. Transnational enterprises quant ity Enterprises level I4.7Amusement facility index Amusement facility I2. Transnational enterprises growt h Enterprises I4.8 Hotel index Housing facility I3.Enterpriese index Enterprises quantity I4.9 Hotel price Commerce cost I4.Enterprises brand Enterprises quality I4.10 Rental reference Living cost potential I2 local situation I5.Interior environment I2.1Huamn capital Human capital I5.1 Inflation rate Economic fluctuation I2.2 Minimum wage Labor cost I5.2 Unemployment rate Unemployment rate I2.3 College index Higher education I5.3 Political stability Political safety I2.4 School index Education facility I5.4 Crime rate Social security I2.5 Stock index Financial service I5.5 Climate index Climate I2.6Bank index Financial service I5.6 CO₂ emission per capita Environment quality Indicators Measuring objects Indicators Measuring objects I2.7bank density Financial service I5.7 PM2.5 Environment quality I2.8 Patent index Science output I5.8 History index History I2.9 R&D numbers and technology parks Technology facility I5.9 Modern culture index Modern culture I2.10 Research institution index Technology facility I5.10 multi languages index Diversified culture I3 Local needs I6 Public system I3.1 population Local needs scale I6.1 Ease of business Business regulation I3.2 wealthy people index Demand level I6.2 Economic freedom index Economic freedom I3.2 Population growth potential Demand growth I6.3 Proportion of fiscal, taxation Local fiancé autonomy I3.3 One-hour flight GDP Region background I6.4 Public governance index Governance I3.4 One-hour flight population Region background I3.5 Income per capita National background I7.1mutinational companies links Economic links I3.6 National economic growth National background I7.2 International organizations index Political links I7.3 international exhibition index Culture I4.Infrasture I7 Global connection I4.1 transport convenience Municipal facility I7.4 international popularity index City popularity I4.2 Water supply ability Water supply facility I7.5 distance to sea Natural position I4.3 Electricity supply quality Electricity supply facility I7.6 Airlines Infrastructures to the outside I4.4 mobile phone numbers Communication facility I7.7 Road lines Infrastructures to the outside I4.5 Network users Network facility I7.8 Internet servers Infrastructures to the outside City samples Definition: The report called on city refers to an administrati ve management center, which contains under the governance suburban urbanization area and may contain rural residents The 500 cities in this report are selected in the following proc edures. – First and foremost, a loose study was carried out on all countries and re gional cities, which was labeled as the preliminary screening. – Second, a research referred to the population and income per capita of t he country or the region was preceded in the 500 cities in order to ident ify the number of sample cities in those areas. . – Afterwards, the research took country as a unit; roughly identify sample cities in a principle, from big to small, from good to bad, from high to l ow. – Finally, considering the accessibility, accuracy and standard of the data, we adjusted the sample cites to make sure the sample cities’ data were a vailable, standardized and accurate. g x wj j Assessment method Synthesis method In the calculations, we used a uniform calculation method to calculate t he 2007-2008, 2009-2010 and 2011-2012 global urban comprehensive com petitiveness and ensured the continuity and comparable of the global urban comprehensive competitiveness index in space and time. Global Urban Competitiveness Factor Environment Indicators synthesis Synthesizing Global Urban Competitiveness Factor Environment Indicato rs at all levels, we used the simple linear and nonlinear weighted average method synthesis. Global Urban Competitiveness Factor industry synthesis Indicators Industry takes nonlinear weighted synthesis and the level of industry and the industrial structure is calculated by nonlinear weighted (or "multiplicati on" synthesis) Part 2 Findings of comparative analysis City, who can overcome the financial tsunami Competitive advantages of “world cities” decease absolut ely and New York's decreasing amplitude is the first, while Asian metropolises continue rising. Internal environment and public institution are the most two important factors in a city’s competitive- ability; high-tech industry, finance, public utilities are the key support of urban competitiveness Ⅰ Analysis on the Most Competitive Cities in the World New York rank No.1 and index decreasing amplitude is the first, while Hong Kong’s index upgrades rapidly Index Movement of the 2007-2012 Top 10 Most Competitive Cities Worldwide Compared with the result in 2009-2010, the absolute competitive index in New York, London, San Francisco, Chicago and Los Angles has decreased in 2010-2012.However, emerging economies show activity in this year and Asian metropolises like Hong Kong , Singapore and Seoul have made themselves into the top 10. The gap of which with the following cities are narrowing, “Four World Cities” will be overtaken by other cities in near future if existing trends continue. Internal environment and public institution : The two important factors in a city’s competitive- ability As the potential competitiveness, competition elements represe nt the city’s development potential. By comparing and analyzing the environmental factors of the most competitive cities, we can find: Environmental Factors of the Most Competitive Cities Internal environment, public institutions, global relations and enterprise quality are very important factors of a city’s competitive ability, among which internal environment and public institution are most prominent Internal Environment includes economic environment, social environment, ecological environment and cultural environment. Public Institutions consist of life convenience, economic freedom and the administration of the government. High-tech industry, finance, public utilities are the key support of urban competitiveness Industrial Environment of the most competitive cities As an important support to a city, industrial environment is the driving force to the u rban economic development. The study found that the most competitive cities also enjoy high industrial competitiveness. the high-tech industries like telecommunication, semicon ductor, software and service, financial industries like insurance agencies, banks, and diver sified financial institutions together with public utilities are the key support of urban com petitiveness. For new “world cities” like Beijing and Shanghai, these industries are the m ost important focus in continuing rising and catching up with the top “world cities”. Ⅱ Overall Comparative Analysis on Global Cities The Global urban competitiveness fell in 2010-2012 as a whole wit h the steepest drop expected for Europe and US and the gap betwe en the cities has been reducing. Average Competitiveness Variation of the Cities in Different Regions Compared with 2009-2010, the overall competitiveness of global cities are decreased in 2011-2012. The average competitive index of 500 cities worldwide decreased from 0.328 in 2009-2010 to 0.323 in 2 011-2012.Competitiveness index average score of developed countries cities have respectively decreased absolutely,while Emerging economies show actively and average score drop Slightly, even some cities ar ise continuously. On the whole, the gap of global urban competitiveness index is assuming narrower and narrower . American and European cities enjoy a high degree of eco nomic freedom while emerging economies present a strong demand. Environmental Factors of Different Regions in 2011-2012 On the whole, the American and European cities still have great advantage, which mainta in superiority on overall element competitiveness, especially in the area of public institutio ns, internal environment and local factors. But the local demand are relative weak that they have to high depend on foreign trade. On the contrary, Asian cities, especially in some emer ging economies like China and India, have such great local demand that establish great dev elopment potential and their GUCI ranking is going straight up. American and European major cities are facing over financialization, while emerging economies have entered the period of the industrial structure transformation American and European cities show strong overall industrial competitiveness with high ind ex scores in both industrial structure and industrial sectors, among which the high-tech industr y is an important support. However, the overexposed proportion of financial centers shows tha t their economy depends too much on finance. The Asian cities get lowest scores in the industr ial sectors and the industrial structure is just on an average level and the industrial developme nt of them is still at the bottom of industrial chain,so that industrial upgrading should be prom oted and the adjusting paces of the industrial structure should be accelerated. At present, since the emerging economies like Beijing and Shanghai have entered the period of the industrial st Cities of emerging economies rise quickly, technol ogy centers perform particularly well. Distribution of the Top 50 Cities with the Fastest Competitiveness Improvement in 2011-2012 （Show in next page） • The cities that improve the fastest are, in order, San Jose, Hong Kong, Suzhou, C hangsha, Lagos, Georgetown, Kingston, Xi’an and Mannheim. • According to the analysis of these 50 cities we can see that half of them come fro m China and India, among which 23 Chinese cities are ranking in the list. • Technology centers perform particularly well, 11 technology centers are include d in the f top 50 despite the relatively small economic aggregate. San Jose, centra l city of American Silicon Valley enjoys a fastest rising speed in its competitiven ess. In 2009, its per capita GDP reached $ 77401.91, occupying the first place in the world and leading the development of global cities. Distribution of the Top 50 Cities with the Fastest Competitiveness Improvement in 2011-2 012 competitiveness indexes and economic aggregate of deve loped cities dropped together, but mainstream of BRICS co untries cities are ascension The Changes of Overall Competitiveness in the Five Developed Cities and the Five BRICS Cities In 2007-2009, the overall competitiveness indexes and economic aggregate of develop ed cities are dropped obviously, but economic aggregate of BRICS countries cities arise a bsolutely and competitiveness indexes arise relatively. In the near future, it is probably ver y difficult for developed cities to maintain their dominations in competitiveness. Ⅲ American and European cities decline obviously, while Asian cities increase Average Competitiveness Variation of the Cities in Different Regions North American cities continue leading the Global Urban Competitiveness Ranking thou gh the composite index decrease. The European competitive index ranking changed little; th e dark clouds of European debt crisis remain. The competitiveness of core Asian cities incre ases with the slight shakes of overall index. In other regions, the cities at the bottom of the c ompetitive ranking reduced, and the ranking of middle cities differentiated Ⅵ Financial centers decease while Technology centers rise The Drop of Competitiveness in Major Functional Centers. (%) Ⅴ High Income Cities Drop & Middle Incomes Rise Comprehensive competitiveness index average score and change of different income level The income level of Global Urban overall Showed a narrowing of trend.. All sorts of comprehensive competitiveness index average score declined widespread. Compared wit h 2009-2010, Figure 2-4 shows, the city of the low-and middle-income levels in emergin g economies enhanced faster, especially Chinese cities kept a rapid momentum. Europea n and North American cities with a relatively high GDP per capita demonstrated an absol ute amount of decline. European cities mean index decreased from 0.32 in 2009-2010 to 0.31 in 2011-2012 Ⅵ Competitiveness input factors: high output efficiency in No rth America and Asia to enhance the potential of large, Euro pean investment needs to be strengthened Regional Distribution of rank Comprehensive Competitive-ness Index and Factors input annual Region 10 1-100 101-200 201-300 301-400 401-500 average inde x score 0.38 Competiveness North Amer ican Factors input North Amer ican 5 56 12 9 6 24 Competiveness Europe 2 35 33 16 13 39 Factors input Europe 2 27 31 19 19 40 Competiveness Asian 4 20 26 52 52 37 Factors input Asian 3 21 52 54 46 14 Competiveness Other 0 3 5 12 29 21 4 42 36 20 6 3 0.305 0.331 0.262 0.303 0.258 0.275 Part 3 Global Urban Competitiveness Research Topics Introduction of team writing research Topics report This year, a long-lasting wish has been fulfilled by inviting the research tea m from International Organization and City and other world renowned expert te ams, together with experts from GUCP to co-compose this report. Research team, led by Banji oyelaran Oyeyinka, director of Global Urban Evalu ation and Research Department of UN Human Settlement Programme Research team, The Doing Business Project of the World Bank Group； Research team, led by Lamia Kamal-Chaoui, director of OECD Secretary-Gene ral Office Saskia Sassen, World well-known sociologist ＆ economist, professor of Colum bia University the GAWC team led by Peter Taylor, world renowned urban researcher and a ac ademician of UK Royal Academy of Social Science GUCP team, led by Peter Karl Kresl and Pengfei Ni Pattern of the global city: Current and Future What is current pattern of global city? What are opportunities an d challenges of the global city? etc. Since early 2012, Global Urban Competitiveness Project group sent e-mail to experts and researcher s nearly 100 colleges and universities in the world, as well as some city government officials and to conducted a survey study. On the b asis of Collecting their answers to these questions and feedback, the team members list systematically some profound and important insi ghts points on the pattern of the global city: New phenomenon, challenges and hot topics of global cities mainly includ e global financial crisis, natural resources, city development and people’s li velihood etc. The important or key questions of cities in the worldinclude natural resour ces, racial problems, and population movement There are many aspects that are worthy of researching. For example, im proving city’s sustaining development, city comprehensive management, preserving local culture and upgrading environment. Economic growth and population movements are the key elements. Globa lization are creating more chances for global city development and exerting different influence on it. Today, some cities in developing countries have the tendency of dropping, while cities in developing countries are rising. These cities development are getting closer. The economic change on pattern will lead to the change in th e world city pattern, in which case, the world is shifting to emerging econo mies cities. A country should empower more authority on managing local affai rs. The cities should strengthen their governance accordingly. Technological change and green economy are both playing a role i n strengthening the sustaining competitiveness in technology and en ergy and resources, which will significantly affect competitiveness. It exerts a significant influence on the future development of a city. In the process of planning and development, the force the city has is very crucial, but still needs more joint efforts. Apart from the big incidence concerning politics, military, security a nd natural disasters, the current threat the world is facing is much ag glomeration and lack of reform. All governments of cities are dealing with different problems. The rise of emerging cities may bring a change to the structure of global cities. The infrastructures are particularly important. Experts or research team dissertate some of these issues Professor Saskia Sassen believed that the Specialized Differen ces were one key vector in urban competitiveness. Banji Oyelaran-Oyeyinka paid special attention to social and t echnological innovations in the Competitiveness of Cities. The team led by Lamia Kamal-Chaoui explored the developme nt of green cities and opportunities through the governance cas es study of the green growth in OECD countries Team of the Doing Business Project of the World Bank Group shows the relationship between the system and urb an competitiveness from the perspective of the business e nvironment. Peter·J·Taylor put forward the challenge facing world c ity network analysis GUCP team, led by Peter Karl Kresl and Pengfei Ni, re commended that the city's decision-makers should enhanc e the urban competitiveness of the focus on the driving fa ctors of the modern cities prosperity on the basis of the an alysis in the global cities experience. Pattern of The Global Urban Competitiveness Global Urban Competitiveness statistical reports (2011-2012) Thank you!
