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ABSTRACT:
A healthy heart is most essential part of human
body, heart, helps to pump blood to all body
organs start working with birth of a person and
only stops working after death. Proper
functioning of this organ is important for healthy
day to day life. But it has been observed that a big
portion of human population is in the effect of
heart diseases such as Coronary artery disease,
Angina ,Heart attack, There are a lot of causes of
heart disease which includes smoking, high
amount of fat or cholesterol intake, diabetes,
blood vessel inflammation etc. In our work,
common kind of heart diseases among various
age groups were analyzed. Getting the result
deduced by using different tools such as Fault
Tree, Decision Tree, Risk Profile, Bayesian
Network,
Conditional
Probabilities
and
Sensitivity Analysis we gave conclusion that
which one is highest risk that should be cured in
first place for better heart health.
Keywords: Risk Analysis of heart diseases,
causes,, Fault Tree, Decision Tree, Risk
Profile, Bayesian Network, Conditional
Probabilities and Sensitivity Analysis
INTRODUCTION: for a happy and
peaceful life it is very essential that human
body is healthy and disease free. Heart is
main Human heart is a muscular organ that
function to pump blood and circulate it
through the whole body at all times. From
one half it send blood to lungs to receive
oxygen and other half of heart receive oxygen
rich blood and pumps it to all body organs,
from where blood cells give oxygen to body
cells and then blood is returned back to heart.
Due to various factors such as age, bad eating
habits, stress etc heart gets many kind of
diseases. As human body gets old, the risk of
heart diseases are high. To do the
mathematical analysis we created a random
data which involved the risk of heart diseases
among 50000 people. People who at at heart
disease risk : Coronary artery disease, Angina,
Heart Attack (Myocardial Infarction), heart
failure are divided into three categories:
Young (<25 years), Middle age (25 to 60 ),
and
senior
citizens
(>60)
.
RISK and RISK analysis: risk is any situation
of deviation from normally expected or desired
result, it is the uncertainty in events. It is of two
type: positive and negative risk. Main concern of
risk analysts is negative risk because it is
potential of facing loss. The study of all possible
risks is useful for keeping a track of the
probability of getting desired outcome.
Risk detection is a judgement of subject that
individuals make about the seriousness of a
danger, and it changes from one person to other.
Dangers are future occasions with a likelihood of
event and a potential for loss.
Analysis: Use techniques that will help us to
calculate the risk associated with the task or
object, so as to maintain the level of risk. It is the
procedure of perceiving, assessing, and
diminishing dangers to a palatable level. It
concentrates on giving responses to the
accompanying inquiries.
There are certain questions that one requires to
answer before:
1. What kind of risks are there and who bears
them in task management?
2. What commonsense ways do individuals use to
adapt to these dangers or mitigate them?
3. Why certain people try to avoid risks and
others accept them?
mentioned, we will have look on each of
them in detail, one by one:
1. FAULT TREE ANALYSIS
2. DECISION TREE
3. BAYESIAN NETWORK
Many similar questions like above.
1. FAULT TREE ANALYSIS:
It is one of most important risk assessment
technique. Using logic gates, in tree branch
type diagrammatic representation of various
possible risks, we find their possibilities. It
mainly uses OR gate and AND gate. It has
been brought to use in this project to find
different causes of heart diseases. Various
branches of tree structure are representing
different causes and are linked to top (heart
disease) through appropriate gates. Figure is
as
below:
Some realted definitons :
1. Risk assessment: orderly procedure of
assessing the potential dangers that might
be included in an anticipated movement
or undertaking.
2. Risk management: it is done, when a
financial specialist or asset supervisor
breaks down and endeavors to evaluate
the potential for misfortunes in a
speculation and afterward makes the
fitting move (or inaction) given their
venture goals and danger resistance.
3. Risk communication: it is a meaningful
communication of risk data so that
preventive measures can be taken by
responsible bodies, so as to mitigate risk
level.
Some types of risk analysis:
We have tried in project to assess the risk
infollowing three methods as below
Top of the flowchart represent heart diseases.
Further three branches of fault tree describe
different kind of heart disease namely:
coronary heart disease, angina, high blood
pressure respectively. And next sub division
tells us causes of aforementioned diseases:
a) Smoking, high cholesterol, diabetes.
b). obesity, genetic, tobacco
c). high salt foods, alcohol, stress.
Reference :
1. http://www.world-heartfederation.org/cardiovascularhealth/heart-disease/different-heartdiseases/#c420.
2. http://www.nhlbi.nih.gov/health/healt
h-topics/topics/hdw/causes.
3. https://www.cardiosmart.org/heartbasics/how-the-heart-works.
4. http://www.who.int/water_sanitation_
health/dwq/iwachap14.pdf
5.