Download The Impact of Data Reliability on the Decision Making Process

The Impact of Data Reliability on the Decision Making Process
Simon Stromberg
Senergy (GB) Limited
Abstract:
This presentation focuses on explaining the value of data in the decision making process and the role of
data reliability in making that decision. The audience will learn about techniques that can be used to
quantify the value of data, the role they play in informing our decisions, and how diagnostic reliability
can impact those decisions, and will be of interest to engineers, geoscientists and their managers who
need to justify the acquisition of new data. Calculating the value of information has to be understood
within the context of the value of the decisions to be taken. This requires evaluation of the key project
decisions and the uncertainties surrounding our knowledge about the state of nature. The state of
nature is the true physical reality of the subsurface, but is unknown due to sparse and imperfect data.
Therefore we deal in uncertainty, and not fact, and it is the uncertainty and relative reduction in
uncertainty that impacts our decisions. Diagnostic data, for example petrophysical logging or
geophysical attribute analysis, are used to reduce uncertainty. However, most data are not 100%
reliable and the reliability of that data significantly impacts on the value calculations. For example, at
50% reliability, data has no intrinsic value – and this requires the use of Bayes Theorem to chart how the
value of data changes with diagnostic reliability. Two examples from petrophysics are used to illustrate
and explain the value assessment concepts: 1) the ability of LWD data to provide a diagnosis of
overpressure impacting the decision to run intermediate casing; and 2) the use of new technology in
predicting sand-face failure in shallow borehole sections. This presentation explains how the economic
limits of data reliability are determined, and the one idea the audience will be able take away is how we
can best characterise the diagnostic reliability and intrinsic dollar value of data to support decision
analysis.
Biography:
Simon Stromberg is the Global Head of Petrophysics for Senergy and has more than 20 years of
experience in geology, petrophysics and project management. He has experience of working for
operators, consultancy services and specialist software companies including Shell and Hess. He has
published and presented on a wide variety of subjects including sedimentology, geosteering, NMR
processing and interpretation, thin bed analysis, low contrast pay, net reservoir calculation, decision
analysis, uncertainty/risk analysis and value of information. More recently Simon has become involved
in project management processes, particularly in understanding the value of petrophysical information
in the decision making process. Simon is an associate editor for SPE Formation Evaluation and is
committed to the education of young professionals and the dissemination of knowledge to a wide
audience. He generally presents at 2 or 3 professional society meetings a year, most recently on the
topics of risk and uncertainty, and delivers training courses to industry professionals, worldwide.