Download Winter forecast 16-17

C’s 2016-17 Winter Weather Forecast
Giving a winter forecast is difficult. It depends on a number of factors that can, over time, change dramatically
thus impacting the nature of the forecast. For me, I look at a number of those factors to help create my
winter weather prediction. They include the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the good old Jet Stream, or
whether we have a strong or weak El Nino or La Nina effect. Other mitigating factors such as the Polar Vortex,
sea surface temperatures, the farmer’s almanac and the woolly caterpillar must be analyzed carefully to
create what I think the winter of 16-17 will be. However, before we get to the forecast, let’s examine the
factors.
The NAO is the difference of atmospheric pressure at sea level between the Icelandic low and the Azores high
(located in the Atlantic Ocean). The hyperlink above will give you a chance to do a bit more research if you
would like. When the NAO is in the positive phase we can expect warmer conditions for our winters while in
the negative phase, it creates just the opposite.
The Jet Stream, as everyone knows is the catalyst. Air masses across the globe will impact it. This fast current
of air just under the tropopause (about 30,000 ft. above sea level) can exceed over 100 MPH however when
colder air from the north and warmer air from the south become stronger or weaker, the jet stream can
propagate in a serpentine or wave like manner bringing different conditions across the globe. For us in the
eastern coast of the US, these colder air masses from Canada and warmer air masses from the Gulf of Mexico
and the Atlantic can severely impact our weather conditions here in the North east. As noted above the
hyperlink for the jet stream will show you current conditions throughout the winter so be sure to check it out.
El Nino and La Nina winters are the warming or cooling of the equatorial Pacific waters off the coast of Central
and South America. The hyperlink shows a diagram of those waters and a brief explanation. For our purpose,
El Nino winters give us what we had last year and that was a warmer than normal season, while La Nina’s
bring the opposite. Also known as El Nino Southern Oscillation Cycle (ENSO) this can greatly impact what we
can expect due to its impact of the jet stream as it approaches the United States out on the west coast.
As for the other mitigating factors like the Polar Vortex, which is a break off of the cold counter clockwise
winds that trap the cold air up north at the pole, it can really give us bone chilling snaps of cold weather
(remember a few years ago during the Winter of 2014). Sea surface temperatures must be looked at off the
east coast because they are the fuel to any potential Nor’easters that can develop. (once again for more on
what Nor’easters are just click the hyperlink and you can get more information however if you remember last
year’s 27-inch storm, you know what they are). The farmer’s almanac, for some, is a true and tested predictor
yet for others, the wooly caterpillar and its color variations are a tell-tale sign of what the winter will bring.
And so here is what I think, the NAO is currently in a negative phase but that changes often, the jet stream will
be impacted this year and with a few Polar Vortexes where colder air will dive south giving us blasts of cold.
This year we are in a weak La Nina and the Wooly has many color variations. As for the farmer’s almanac click
the hyperlink so you can see what they have to say.
So what does all this mean, well I definitely know this winter will be colder than last year. With blasts of cold
air mixed with a few warm days (above 60 degrees). Also as the cold air from the north and warm air from the
south create conflict, the jet stream could set up for some easterly storms which could bring snow however I
think most of our snow falls totals will be kept down due to the fact that warmer air will make its way into
those systems and turn things over to that WINTRY MIX scenario. My snow totals are about average with
many little storms of a few inches (less than 4) and I do not see the huge storms like the one we got last year.
That means approximately 22-24 inches throughout. I see the snowiest part of the winter after the 20 th of
January and I am going on record predicting an early spring (which means a nice beginning to March).
Temperatures will be about average for each month but remember there will be snaps of cold air that linger
for a few days (teens and single digits). In case you are wondering, the average temperatures for us during the
winter are between 38-42 degrees.
I’ll keep a month by month tally on my weather page and you can give me a grade at the end of the Winter
Season. Oh yea, one more thing, I do not expect a white Christmas…. sorry.