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PASCAL
PASCAL’S WAGER:
YOU BETTER BET
THAT GOD EXISTS
BLAISE PASCAL (1623 -1662)
Pascal [Background]
Mathematical genius.
Studied [gambling] probability theory
and decision under conditions of
uncertainty.
Sickly, constant pain, hypochondriac.
Jansenism, love, worldly period.
Had epiphany
[Pascal’s Epiphany]

In October 1654, Pascal is said to have been involved in an
accident at the Neuilly-sur-Seine bridge where the horses
plunged over the parapet and the carriage nearly followed
them. Fortunately, the reins broke and the coach hung
halfway over the edge. Pascal and his friends emerged
unscathed, but the sensitive philosopher, terrified by the
nearness of death, fainted away and remained unconscious
for some time. On 23 November 1654, between 10:30 and
12:30 at night, Pascal had an intense religious vision and
immediately recorded the experience in a brief note to
himself which began: "Fire. God of Abraham, God of Isaac,
God of Jacob, not of the philosophers and the scholars…"
and concluded by quoting Psalm 119:16: "I will not forget
thy word. Amen." He seems to have carefully sewn this
document into his coat and always transferred it when he
changed clothes; a servant discovered it only by chance
after his death
Our Ignorance of God
We are “incapable of knowing either
what he is or whether he is” (115L).
Thus probability of God’s existence =
0.5 (“equal chance”)
Reason Sees Its Limits
“Reason cannot decide this question”
(115R).
We must nevertheless choose.
[NOTE: Shift
Truth  Decision]
Expected Value Calculus
1st Principle:
expected value of possible outcome
= (probability of outcome)
x (value of outcome)
2nd Principle:
expected value of action
= sum of expected value of
all its possible outcomes
Expected Value of Theism
If God does not exist:
0.5 x (cost of faith: -f) = - 0.5f
If God does exist:
0.5 x (-f + infinite joy) = infinity
sum = infinity
So you must choose to believe in God.
[Note: James does not require belief.]
Counter-Argument
But I cannot just choose to believe (116)
[Q: Psychological impossibility? Or
problem of insincerity?
Rebuttal: Act as if you believe, and you
will come to believe. [Augustine]
Explanatory Context (116-17)
i)
ii)
iii)
iv)
our will is depraved (selfish);
our reason cannot see God;
the heart can see God;
this argument stops reason so heart
prevails
“Le coeur a ses raisons,
que la raison ne connaît point.”