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Analyze Phase Hypothesis Testing Normal Data Part 2 Hypothesis Testing Normal Data Part 2 Welcome to Analyze “X” Sifting Inferential Statistics Intro to Hypothesis Testing Hypothesis Testing ND P1 Calculate Sample Size Hypothesis Testing ND P2 Variance Testing Analyze Results Hypothesis Testing NND P1 Hypothesis Testing NND P2 Wrap Up & Action Items LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 2 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC Tests of Variance Tests of Variance are used for both Normal and Non-normal Data. Normal Data – 1 Sample to a target – 2 Samples: F-Test – 3 or More Samples: Bartlett’s Test Non-Normal Data – 2 or more samples: Levene’s Test The null hypothesis states there is no difference between the Standard Deviations or variances. – Ho: σ1 = σ2 = σ3 … – Ha: at least one is different LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 3 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC 1-Sample Variance A 1-sample variance test is used to compare an expected population variance to a target. Stat > Basic Statistics > Graphical Summary If the target variance lies inside the confidence interval then we fail to reject the null hypothesis. – Ho: σ2Sample = σ2Target – Ha: σ2Sample ≠ σ2Target Use the sample size calculations for a 1 sample t-test. LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 4 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC 1-Sample Variance 1. Practical Problem: • We are considering changing supplies for a part we currently purchase from a supplier that charges a premium for the hardening process and has a large variance in their process. • The proposed new supplier has provided us with a sample of their product. They have stated they can maintain a variance of 0.10. 2. Statistical Problem: Ho: σ2 = 0.10 or Ha: σ2 ≠ 0.10 Ho: σ = 0.31 Ha: σ ≠ 0.31 3. 1-sample variance: α = 0.05 β = 0.10 LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 5 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC 1-Sample Variance 4. Sample Size: • Open the MINITABTM worksheet: “Exh_Stat.MTW” • This is the same file used for the 1 Sample t example. – We will assume the sample size is adequate. 5. State Statistical Solution Stat > Basic Statistics > Graphical Summary LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 6 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC 1-Sample Variance Recall the target Standard Deviation is 0.31. Summary for Values A nderson-Darling N ormality Test 4.4 4.6 4.8 A -S quared P -V alue 0.33 0.442 M ean S tDev V ariance S kew ness Kurtosis N 4.7889 0.2472 0.0611 -0.02863 -1.24215 9 M inimum 1st Q uartile M edian 3rd Q uartile M aximum 5.0 4.4000 4.6000 4.7000 5.0500 5.1000 95% C onfidence Interv al for M ean 4.5989 4.9789 95% C onfidence Interv al for M edian 4.6000 5.0772 95% C onfidence Interv al for S tD ev 95% Confidence Intervals 0.1670 0.4736 Mean Median 4.6 4.7 LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 4.8 4.9 7 5.0 5.1 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC Test of Variance Example 1. Practical Problem: We want to determine the effect of two different storage methods on the rotting of potatoes. You study conditions conducive to potato rot by injecting potatoes with bacteria that cause rotting and subjecting them to different temperature and oxygen regimes. We can test the data to determine if there is a difference in the Standard Deviation of the rot time between the two different methods. 2. Statistical Problem: Ho: σ1 = σ2 Ha: σ1 ≠ σ2 3. Equal Variance test (F-test since there are only 2 factors.) LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 8 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC Test of Variance Example 4. Sample Size: α = 0.05 β = 0.10 Stat > Power and Sample Size > s2 2 Variances… Open Minitab Worksheet “EXH_AOV.MTW” MINITABTM Session Window Power and Sample Size Test for Two Standard Deviations Testing (StDev 1 / StDev 2) = 1 (versus not =) Calculating power for (StDev 1 / StDev 2) = ratio Alpha = 0.05 Method: Levene's Test Ratio 0.684 Minimum sample size of 89 required LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 9 Sample Target Size Power 89 0.9 Actual Power 0.900312 The sample size is for each group. © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC Normality Test – Follow the Roadmap 5. Statistical Solution: Stat>Basic Statistics>Normality Test LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 10 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC Normality Test – Follow the Roadmap Ho: Data is Normal Ha: Data is NOT Normal Stat>Basic Stats> Normality Test (Use Anderson Darling) Probability Plot of Rot 1 Normal 99.9 Mean StDev N AD P-Value 99 Percent 95 90 4.871 0.9670 100 0.306 0.559 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 5 1 0.1 LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 2 3 4 11 5 Rot 1 6 7 8 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC Test of Equal Variance – Normal Data Stat>ANOVA>Test for Equal Variance LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 12 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC Test of Equal Variance – Normal Data 6. Practical Solution: The difference between the Standard Deviations from the two samples is not significant. Use F-Test for 2 samples Normally distributed data. P-value < 0.05 (.002) LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 13 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC Normality Test Perform another test using the column Rot. First run the Normality Test… Probability Plot of Rot Normal 99 Mean StDev N AD P-Value 95 90 13.78 7.712 18 0.285 0.586 Percent 80 70 60 50 40 The p-value is > 0.05 We can assume our data is Normally Distributed. 30 20 10 5 1 -5 0 LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 5 10 15 Rot 14 20 25 30 35 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC Test for Equal Variance (Normal Data) Then run a Test for Equal Variance using using Rot as a “Response:” and Temp as “Factors:”. LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 15 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC Test of Equal Variance Test for Equal Variances for Rot F-Test Test Statistic P-Value 10 0.68 0.598 Temp Lev ene's Test Test Statistic P-Value 16 2 4 6 8 10 95% Bonferroni Confidence Intervals for StDevs 10 0.05 0.824 12 Ho: σ1 = σ2 Ha: σ1≠ σ2 Temp P-value > 0.05; there is no statistically significant difference. 16 0 5 10 15 20 25 Rot LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 16 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC Test of Equal Variance Use F- Test for 2 samples of Normally Distributed Data. LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 17 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC Continuous Data - Normal LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 18 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC Test For Equal Variances Stat>ANOVA>Test for Equal Variance LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 19 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC Test For Equal Variances Graphical Analysis Test for Equal Variances for Rot Temp Oxygen Bartlett's Test 2 10 Test Statistic P-Value 6 2.71 0.744 Lev ene's Test Test Statistic P-Value 10 0.37 0.858 2 16 6 10 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 95% Bonferroni Confidence Intervals for StDevs P-value > 0.05 shows insignificant difference between variance LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 20 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC Test For Equal Variances Statistical Analysis Test for Equal Variances: Rot versus Temp, Oxygen 95% Bonferroni confidence intervals for Standard Deviations Temp 10 10 10 16 16 16 Oxygen 2 6 10 2 6 10 N 3 3 3 3 3 3 Lower 2.26029 1.28146 2.80104 1.54013 1.50012 3.55677 StDev 5.29150 3.00000 6.55744 3.60555 3.51188 8.32666 `Upper 81.890 46.427 101.481 55.799 54.349 128.862 Bartlett's Test (Normal distribution) Use this if data is Normal and for Factors > or = 2 Test statistic = 2.71 P-value = 0.744 Levene's Test (any continuous distribution) Use this if data is Non-normal and for Factors > or = 2 Test statistic = 0.37 P-value = 0.858 LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 21 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC Tests for Variance Exercise Exercise objective: Utilize what you have learned to conduct and analyze a test for Equal Variance using MINITABTM. 1. The quality manager was challenged by the plant director as to why the VOC levels in the product varied so much. After using a Process Map some potential sources of variation were identified. These sources included operating shifts and the raw material supplier. Of course the quality manager has already clarified the Gage R&R results were less than 17% study variation so the gage was acceptable. 2. The quality manager decided to investigate the effect of the raw material supplier. He wants to see if the variation of the product quality is different when using supplier A or supplier B. He wants to be at least 95% confident the variances are similar when using the two suppliers. 3. Use data ppm VOC and RM Supplier to determine if there is a difference between suppliers. LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 22 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC Tests for Variance Exercise: Solution First we want to do a graphical summary of the two samples from the two suppliers. LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 23 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC Tests for Variance Exercise: Solution In “Variables:” enter ‘ppm VOC’ In “By variables:” enter ‘RM Supplier’ We want to see if the two samples are from Normal populations. LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 24 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC Tests for Variance Exercise: Solution The P-value is greater than 0.05 for both Anderson-Darling Normality Tests so we conclude the samples are from Normally Distributed populations because we “failed to reject” the null hypothesis that the data sets are from Normal Distributions. Summary for ppm VOC Summary for ppm VOC RM Supplier = B RM Supplier = A A nderson-Darling N ormality Test A nderson-Darling N ormality Test 20 25 30 35 40 45 A -S quared P -V alue 0.33 0.465 A -S quared P -V alue 0.49 0.175 M ean S tDev V ariance S kew ness Kurtosis N 37.583 7.090 50.265 0.261735 -0.091503 12 M ean S tDev V ariance S kew ness Kurtosis N 30.500 6.571 43.182 -0.555911 -0.988688 12 M inimum 1st Q uartile M edian 3rd Q uartile M aximum 50 25.000 33.250 35.500 42.000 50.000 20 25 30 35 40 45 M inimum 1st Q uartile M edian 3rd Q uartile M aximum 50 95% C onfidence Interv al for M ean 95% C onfidence Interv al for M ean 33.079 26.325 42.088 33.263 42.000 5.022 12.038 25.000 95% Confidence Intervals 95% C onfidence Interv al for S tD ev Mean 34.675 95% C onfidence Interv al for M edian 95% C onfidence Interv al for M edian 95% Confidence Intervals 19.000 25.000 31.500 37.000 38.000 37.000 95% C onfidence Interv al for S tD ev Mean 4.655 11.157 Median Median 32 34 36 38 40 25.0 42 27.5 30.0 32.5 35.0 37.5 Are both Data Sets Normal? LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 25 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC Tests for Variance Exercise: Solution LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 26 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC Tests for Variance Exercise: Solution For “Response:” enter ‘ppm VOC’ For “Factors:” enter ‘RM Supplier’ Note MINITABTM defaults to 95% confidence level which is exactly the level we want to test for this problem. LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 27 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC Tests for Variance Exercise: Solution Because both populations were considered to be Normally Distributed the F-test is used to evaluate whether the variances (Standard Deviation squared) are equal. The P-value of the F-test was greater than 0.05 so we “fail to reject” the null hypothesis. So once again in English: The variances are equal between the results from the two suppliers on our product’s ppm VOC level. Test for Equal Variances for ppm VOC RM Supplier F-Test Test Statistic P-Value A Lev ene's Test Test Statistic P-Value B 4 RM Supplier 1.16 0.806 6 8 10 12 95% Bonferroni Confidence Intervals for StDevs 0.02 0.890 14 A B 20 LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 25 30 35 ppm VOC 28 40 45 50 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC Hypothesis Testing Roadmap Normal Test of Equal Variance 1 Sample Variance Variance Equal Variance Not Equal Two Samples Two Samples Two Samples Two Samples 2 Sample T 1 Sample t-test One Way ANOVA LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 2 Sample T 29 One Way ANOVA © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC Purpose of ANOVA Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) is used to investigate and model the relationship between a response variable and one or more independent variables. Analysis of Variance extends the two sample t-test for testing the equality of two population Means to a more general null hypothesis of comparing the equality of more than two Means versus them not all being equal. – The classification variable, or factor, usually has three or more levels (If there are only two levels, a t-test can be used). – Allows you to examine differences among Means using multiple comparisons. – The ANOVA test statistic is: Avg SS between S2 between 2 Avg SS within S within LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 30 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC What do we want to know? Is the “between group” variation large enough to be distinguished from the “within group” variation? X delta (δ) (Between Group Variation) Total (Overall) Variation Within Group Variation (level of supplier 1) X X X X X X X X μ1 LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase μ2 31 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC Calculating ANOVA Where: G = the number of groups (levels in the study) xij = the individual in the jth group nj = the number of individuals in the jth group or level X = the grand Mean Xj = the Mean of the jth group or level Total (Overall) Variation delta (δ) Within Group Variation (Between Group Variation) Between Group Variation g j1 nj (Xj X ) Within Group Variation g 2 LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase nj (X j1 i 1 ij X) 32 Total Variation g 2 nj (X j1 i 1 ij X) 2 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC Alpha Risk and Pair-Wise t-tests The alpha risk increases as the number of Means increases with a pair-wise t-test scheme. The formula for testing more than one pair of Means using a t-test is: 1 1 α k where k number of pairs of means so, for 7 pairs of means and an α 0.05 : 1 - 1 - 0.05 0.30 7 or 30% alpha risk LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 33 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC Three Samples We have three potential suppliers claiming to have equal levels of quality. Supplier B provides a considerably lower purchase price than either of the other two vendors. We would like to choose the lowest cost supplier but we must ensure we do not effect the quality of our raw material. File>Open Worksheet > ANOVA.MTW We would like test the data to determine if there is a difference between the three suppliers. LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 34 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC Follow the Roadmap…Test for Normality Probability Plot of Supplier A Normal 99 Mean StDev N AD P-Value 95 90 3.664 0.4401 5 0.246 0.568 The samples of all three suppliers are Normally Distributed. Supplier A P-value = 0.568 Supplier B P-value = 0.385 Supplier C P-value = 0.910 70 60 50 40 30 Probability Plot of Supplier B 20 Normal 10 99 Mean 3.968 StDev 0.2051 N 5 AD 0.314 Probability P-Value 0.385 5 95 1 2.5 3.0 90 3.5 Supplier A 80 Percent 4.0 4.5 60 50 40 Mean StDev N AD P-Value 95 90 30 20 4.03 0.4177 5 0.148 0.910 80 10 5 1 Plot of Supplier C Normal 99 70 Percent Percent 80 3.50 3.75 4.00 Supplier B 70 60 50 40 30 20 4.25 4.50 3.0 3.5 10 5 1 LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 35 4.0 Supplier C 4.5 5.0 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC Test for Equal Variance… Test for Equal Variance (must stack data to create “Response” & “ Factors”): Test for Equal Variances for Data Bartlett's Test Test Statistic P-Value Supplier A 2.11 0.348 Lev ene's Test Suppliers Test Statistic P-Value 0.59 0.568 Supplier B Supplier C 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 95% Bonferroni Confidence Intervals for StDevs LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 36 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC ANOVA MINITABTM Stat>ANOVA>One-Way Unstacked Enter Stacked Supplier data in “Responses:” Click on “Graphs…”, Check “Boxplots of data” LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 37 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC ANOVA What does this graph tell us? Boxplot of Supplier A, Supplier B, Supplier C 4.6 4.4 4.2 Data 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 Supplier A LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase Supplier B 38 Supplier C © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC ANOVA Session Window One-way ANOVA: Supplier A, Supplier B, Supplier C P-value > .05 No Difference between suppliers Source DF SS MS F P Factor 2 0.384 0.192 1.40 0.284 Error 12 1.641 0.137 Total 14 2.025 S = 0.3698 R-Sq = 18.95% R-Sq(adj) = 5.44% Level N Supplier A 5 Supplier B 5 Supplier C 5 Mean 3.6640 3.9680 4.0300 StDev 0.4401 0.2051 0.4177 Stat>ANOVA>One Way (unstacked) Individual 95% CIs For Mean Based on Pooled StDev Level +---------+---------+---------+--------Supplier A (-----------*-----------) Supplier B (-----------*-----------) Supplier C (-----------*-----------) +---------+---------+---------+--------3.30 3.60 3.90 4.20 Pooled StDev = 0.3698 LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 39 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC ANOVA One-way ANOVA: Supplier A, Supplier B, Supplier C Source DF SS MS F P Factor 2 0.384 0.192 1.40 0.284 Error 12 1.641 0.137 Total 14 2.025 S = 0.3698 R-Sq = 18.95% R-Sq(adj) = 5.44% F-Critical F-Calc Level N Supplier A 5 Supplier B 5 Supplier C 5 Mean 3.6640 3.9680 4.0300 StDev 0.4401 0.2051 0.4177 Individual 95% CIs For Mean Based on Pooled StDev Level +---------+---------+---------+--------Supplier A (-----------*-----------) Supplier B (-----------*-----------) Supplier C (-----------*-----------) +---------+---------+---------+--------3.30 3.60 3.90 4.20 Pooled StDev = 0.3698 LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 40 D/N 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 161.40 18.51 10.13 7.71 6.61 5.99 5.59 5.32 5.12 4.96 4.84 4.75 4.67 4.60 4.54 2 199.50 19.00 9.55 6.94 5.79 5.14 4.74 4.46 4.26 4.10 3.98 3.89 3.81 3.74 3.68 3 215.70 19.16 9.28 6.59 5.41 4.76 4.35 4.07 3.86 3.71 3.59 3.49 3.41 3.34 3.29 4 224.60 19.25 9.12 6.39 5.19 4.53 4.12 3.84 3.63 3.48 3.36 3.26 3.18 3.11 3.06 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC Sample Size Let’s check how much difference we can see with a sample of 5. Power and Sample Size One-way ANOVA Alpha = 0.05 Assumed Standard Deviation = 1 Number of Levels = 3 Sample Size 5 Power 0.9 SS Means 3.29659 Maximum Difference 2.56772 The sample size is for each level. LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 41 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC ANOVA Assumptions 1. Observations are adequately described by the model. 2. Errors are Normally and independently distributed. 3. Homogeneity of variance among factor levels. In one-way ANOVA model adequacy can be checked by either of the following: 1. Check the data for Normality at each level and for homogeneity of variance across all levels. 2. Examine the residuals (a residual is the difference in what the model predicts and the true observation). Normal plot of the residuals Residuals versus fits Residuals versus order If the model is adequate the residual plots will be structureless. LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 42 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC Residual Plots Stat>ANOVA>One-Way Unstacked>Graphs LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 43 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC Histogram of Residuals Histogram of the Residuals (responses are Supplier A, Supplier B, Supplier C) 5 Frequency 4 3 2 1 0 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 Residual 0.2 0.4 0.6 The Histogram of Residuals should show a bell-shaped curve. LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 44 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC Normal Probability Plot of Residuals Normality plot of the Residuals should follow a straight line. Results of our example look good. The Normality assumption is satisfied. Normal Probability Plot of the Residuals (responses are Supplier A, Supplier B, Supplier C) 99 95 90 Percent 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 5 1 -1.0 LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase -0.5 0.0 Residual 45 0.5 1.0 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC Residuals versus Fitted Values The plot of Residuals versus fits examines constant variance. The plot should be structureless with no outliers present. Our example does not indicate a problem. Residuals Versus the Fitted Values (responses are Supplier A, Supplier B, Supplier C) 0.75 0.50 Residual 0.25 0.00 -0.25 -0.50 3.65 LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 3.70 3.75 3.80 46 3.85 3.90 Fitted Value 3.95 4.00 4.05 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC ANOVA Exercise Exercise objective: Utilize what you have learned to conduct an analysis of a one way ANOVA using MINITABTM. 1. The quality manager was challenged by the plant director as to why the VOC levels in the product varied so much. The quality manager now wants to find if the product quality is different because of how the shifts work with the product. 2. The quality manager wants to know if the average is different for the ppm VOC of the product among the production shifts. 3. Use Data in columns “ppm VOC” and “Shift” in “hypotest stud.mtw” to determine the answer for the quality manager at a 95% confidence level. LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 47 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC ANOVA Exercise: Solution First we need to do a graphical summary of the samples from the 3 shifts. LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase Stat>Basic Stat>Graphical Summary 48 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC ANOVA Exercise: Solution We want to see if the 3 samples are from Normal populations. In “Variables:” enter ‘ppm VOC’ In “By variables:” enter ‘Shift’ LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 49 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC ANOVA Exercise: Solution The P-value is greater than 0.05 for both Anderson-Darling Normality Tests so we conclude the samples are from Normally Distributed populations because we “failed to reject” the null hypothesis that the data sets are from Normal Distributions. Summary for ppm VOC Summary for ppm VOC A nderson-Darling N ormality Test 20 25 30 35 40 45 25 30 35 40 45 50 32.000 33.500 38.000 46.500 50.000 33.847 32.936 45.153 95% Confidence Intervals 48.129 95% C onfidence Interv al for S tD ev Mean 4.470 13.761 Median 35 40 45 50 Summary for ppm VOC P-Value 0.658 Shift = 3 A nderson-Darling N ormality Test 0.37 0.334 A -S quared P -V alue 0.24 0.658 M ean S tDev V ariance S kew ness Kurtosis N 34.625 5.041 25.411 -0.74123 1.37039 8 M ean S tDev V ariance S kew ness Kurtosis N 28.000 6.525 42.571 0.06172 -1.10012 8 30.411 25.000 31.750 35.500 37.000 42.000 20 25 30 35 40 45 M inimum 1st Q uartile M edian 3rd Q uartile M aximum 50 30.614 22.545 37.322 20.871 95% Confidence Intervals 33.322 95% C onfidence Interv al for S tD ev Mean 10.260 33.455 95% C onfidence Interv al for M edian 95% C onfidence Interv al for S tD ev 3.333 19.000 22.000 28.000 32.750 38.000 95% C onfidence Interv al for M ean 38.839 95% C onfidence Interv al for M edian Mean 39.500 6.761 45.714 0.58976 -1.13911 8 95% C onfidence Interv al for M edian 95% C onfidence Interv al for M ean 95% Confidence Intervals M ean S tDev V ariance S kew ness Kurtosis N A -S quared P -V alue M inimum 1st Q uartile M edian 3rd Q uartile M aximum 50 0.32 0.446 M inimum 1st Q uartile M edian 3rd Q uartile M aximum A nderson-Darling N ormality Test 20 A -S quared P -V alue 95% C onfidence Interv al for M ean P-Value 0.334 Shift = 2 P-Value 0.446 Shift = 1 4.314 13.279 Median Median 30 32 34 36 38 LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 20.0 40 50 22.5 25.0 27.5 30.0 32.5 35.0 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC ANOVA Exercise: Solution First we need to determine if our data has Equal Variances. Stat > ANOVA > Test for Equal Variances… Now we need to test the variances. For “Response:” enter ‘ppm VOC’ For “Factors:” enter ‘Shift’ LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 51 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC ANOVA Exercise: Solution The P-value of the F-test was greater than 0.05 so we “fail to reject” the null hypothesis. Test for Equal Variances for ppm VOC Bartlett's Test Test Statistic P-Value 1 0.63 0.729 Lev ene's Test Shift Test Statistic P-Value 0.85 0.440 2 3 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 95% Bonferroni Confidence Intervals for StDevs 18 Are the variances are equal…Yes! LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 52 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC ANOVA Exercise: Solution We need to use the One-Way ANOVA to determine if the Means are equal of product quality when being produced by the 3 shifts. Again we want to put 95.0 for the confidence level. Stat > ANOVA > One-Way… For “Response:” enter ‘ppm VOC’ For “Factor:” enter ‘Shift’ Also be sure to click “Graphs…” to select “Four in one” under residual plots. Also, remember to click “Assume equal variances” because we determined the variances were equal between the 2 samples. LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 53 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC ANOVA Exercise: Solution We must look at the Residual Plots to be sure our ANOVA analysis is valid. Since our residuals look Normally Distributed and randomly patterned we will assume our analysis is correct. Residual Plots for ppm VOC Normal Probability Plot Residuals Versus the Fitted Values 99 N 24 AD 0.255 P-Value 0.698 10 Residual Percent 90 50 10 1 0 -5 -10 -10 0 Residual 10 30 Histogram of the Residuals 4.8 10 3.6 5 2.4 40 0 -5 1.2 0.0 35 Fitted Value Residuals Versus the Order of the Data Residual Frequency 5 -10 -10 -5 LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 0 Residual 5 10 54 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Observation Order © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC ANOVA Exercise: Solution Since the P-value of the ANOVA test is less than 0.05 we “reject” the null hypothesis that the Mean product quality as measured in ppm VOC is the same from all shifts. We “accept” the alternate hypothesis that the Mean product quality is different from at least one shift. Don’t miss that shift! Since the confidence intervals of the Means do not overlap between Shift 1 and Shift 3 we see one of the shifts is delivering a product quality with a higher level of ppm VOC. LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 55 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC Summary At this point you should be able to: • Be able to conduct Hypothesis Testing of Variances • Understand how to Analyze Hypothesis Testing Results LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase 56 © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC IASSC Certified Lean Six Sigma Green Belt (ICGB) The International Association for Six Sigma Certification (IASSC) is a Professional Association dedicated to growing and enhancing the standards within the Lean Six Sigma Community. IASSC is the only independent third-party certification body within the Lean Six Sigma Industry that does not provide training, mentoring and coaching or consulting services. IASSC exclusively facilitates and delivers centralized universal Lean Six Sigma Certification Standards testing and organizational Accreditations. The IASSC Certified Lean Six Sigma Green Belt (ICGB) is an internationally recognized professional who is well versed in the Lean Six Sigma Methodology who both leads or supports improvement projects. The Certified Green Belt Exam, is a 3 hour 100 question proctored exam. Learn about IASSC Certifications and Exam options at… http://www.iassc.org/six-sigma-certification/ LSS Green Belt v11.1 MT - Analyze Phase © Open Source Six Sigma, LLC