Download Freight models, constrained ec

Freight models, constrained economic
models and natural resource data
TRB, Washington, 21 October 2013
Ming Chen, TNO
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October 21, 2013
Ming Chen, TNO
The need for a restricted model
Conceptual framework
Model suite TNO
Examples of application and advantages
Next steps
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October 21, 2013
Ming Chen, TNO
Context
Recent history:
Climate debate
Ongoing and visible trend breaks (energy, food, water scarcity)
Upcoming (large) economies (BRIC)
Financial reset (changing approach towards debts)
Energy independence (EU: import oil & gas 1.1 Billion/day)
As a consequence:
Long term solutions/policies required
Long term assessment and forecasting required (often upto 2050)
Additional mega trends to be taken into account
=> Boundaries become visible
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Ming Chen, TNO
Approaching the problem at the right level…
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Table: Moment where production growth is smaller than growth of demand
moment of maximum production of non-replaceable natural resources
When
years to go
before 2020
1-10
Lithium
Antimony, Arsenic, Barite, Cadmium, Fluorspar, Gold, Iron
ore, Lead, Manganese, Molybdenum, Niobium, Rhenium,
before 2035
11-25
Silver, Strontium, Tin, Zinc, Zirconium
Bauxite, Bismuth, Coal, Cobalt, Copper, Garnet, Graphite,
before 2050
26-40
Natural Gas, Nickel, Thallium Titanium, Tungsten
Boron,
Magnesium,
Mercury,
Phosphate
Rock,
before 2070
41-60
Selenium, Vanadium
after 2070
60+
Bromine, Cement, Lime, Potash, REM, Salt, Soda Ash
Aluminium,
Beryllium,
Chromium,
Diamond,
PGM,
Gallium,
Germanium, Hafnium, Indium, Nitrogen, Silicon, Sulphur,
No data
No data
Tantalum
See section 3
See section 3
Oil
Source: Continuously Less and Less, Chris Clugston, 2009 and Metal minerals
scarcity, TNO, March 2009, separate category for oil NEA
Danger zone: < 30 years
Note: indicative figures not derived from our model
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Ming Chen, TNO
Implications of scarcity non-replaceable natural
resources
Economic principles:
Insufficient supply > increase price > reduced demand
Increase in price > production at higher costs possible > more supply
In this case:
no production at lower costs will return > products using scarce resources
price increase and substitutes only available at higher costs > reduced
demand > negative effect on economy as a whole
(unless new cheaper technology or alternatives become available)
Example: oil off shore drilling
So restricted economic growth models required
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Ming Chen, TNO
What to expect
Scarcity on some natural resources including labor, land use, energy,
water, …
Efficiency in use of scarce resources
Transition to less scarce resources
Large scale innovations
Societal change
Changing trade relations
Reallocation of welfare in the world
?
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October 21, 2013
Ming Chen, TNO
Conceptual Freight Modeling Framework
Global Data
sources
World Economic Model
Consistency
rule
European/Federal
Data Sources
European/Federal Freight Model
Consistency
rule
National/State
Data Sources
National/State Freight model
Consistency
rule
Regional/Local
Data sources
Regional/Local Freight model
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October 21, 2013
Ming Chen, TNO
Models available at TNO
Modal split
(maritime/
ports)
work Services
Route choice
World
Container
model
nsportation Services
BasGoed
BasGoed
istics Services
(inland
waterways)
Logistics
NL
TRANS-TOOLS
de (Sales and Sourcing)
TNO Freight Transport Model
Distribution
EXIOMOD
duction and
sumption
Raem- Europe
Production & Consumption
EU
BIVAS
World
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Current Model flow
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Characteristics of the models
EXIOMOD
Geographical
scope, detail
World – Country
Input/output
Output: PC matrix
(in euro)
Commodity
classification
2-digit NACE (164
sectors/200
commodities)
Computable
General
Equilibrium model
Modelling
type
RAEM-Europe
TNO Freight
models
Europe – NUTS2 + Europe – NUTS2 +
non-EU country
non-EU country
relations
relations
Output: PC matrix Input: OD matrix (in
(in euro)
tonnes)
1-digit NACE (59
sectors/
commodities)
Spatial
Computable
General
Equilibrium model
NSTR1 (10
commodities)
Multinomial logit &
All-or-nothing
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Ming Chen, TNO
EXIOMOD
Sectoral / Regional
Dimension
Model
EXIOMOD
•Main countries of the
world
•164 industries and
service sectors, 200
commodities
•Uses results of
EXIOPOL
Interesting
features
Main outputs
•Linking physical and
economic flows
•Very detailed
environmental and
energy dimension
•International trade
•Emissions and waste
•Use and extraction of
natural resources
•Changes in
technologies
Possible
applications
•Sustainability issues
•Climate change
•Energy transition
•Competitiveness of
European countries
Unique elements:
• Represents 95% of global economy (43 countries incl. EU27, US,
Japan, Russia, Brazil, India and China)
• Much detail on Social effects, Economic effects, Environmental effects
• Semi-endogenous growth under the framework of Dynamic Stochastic
General Equilibrium. (dynamic, recursive over time)
• Agent-based modeling of expectation formation and technology adoption
• Dynamics of capital accumulation and technology progress, stock and
flow relationships and adaptive expectations.
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Ming Chen, TNO
RAEM-Europe
Model
RAEM-Europe
Sectoral / Regional
Dimension
Interesting
features
•NUTS2 regions of EU27
(271)
•24 industries and
service sectors
•Combination of NEG
with endogenous
growth, migration
•Linking social,
economic and
environmental
dimensions
Main outputs
•Interregional trade
•Regional production,
consumption,
emissions and waste
•Migration
Possible
applications
•European Cohesion
Policy
•Transport
•Environment
•Regional economic
growth
Unique elements:
• Representation of agglomeration and dispersion effects using the
framework of new economic geography
• Inter-regional migration flows at the level of NUTS2 regions of EU
• Endogenous economic growth and inter-regional knowledge spillovers
• Two levels of the government
• Environmental effects at the regional level
• Model choice for different types of trips
• Amount of transport infrastructure investments is related to the road
capacity and transport costs
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Examples of application and advantages
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Example: Innovation scenarios for the building
sector
0.00%
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
Figure: Improvement of material efficiency as measured in material
used per unit of output in the baseline scenario
Stone
Sand and clay
-0.50%
-1.00%
Chemical and fertilizer minerals,
salt and other mining and
quarrying products n.e.c.
Chemicals nec
-1.50%
Lead, zinc and tin ores and
concentrates
-2.00%
Other non-ferrous metal ores and
concentrates
-2.50%
-3.00%
Aluminium ores and concentrates
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Example non-EU developments to EU regional impacts
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Internalization of external costs
Baseline
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
20
Euro
Euro
70
Externe kosten
Productiekosten
Internalisatie
30
20
10
10
0
0
Results:
• Limited impact on global economy (-0.9%)
• Limited impact on container flows through port of Rotterdam (-0.5%)
• Benefits (external) higher than costs (internal), ratio 2.6 : 1
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Advantages
Improved prediction of international trade for 200 types of
commodities
Improved prediction of bulk flows,
Improved assessment of external impacts including water and land
use as well as generation of waste flows
which will impact for instance the assessments of infrastructure needs
for ports and the inland modes and policies of at each level (national,
regional).
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Improvement: Conversion factor module and
scenarios for value-weight ratios
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October 21, 2013
Ming Chen, TNO
Improvement: Transportation/logistics costs input
to Economic module
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October 21, 2013
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Example EU regional development and global impacts
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Ming Chen, TNO
Overview of project experiences used for this
presentation
1. FP 7 HIGH-TOOL => development of a high level transport model
2. FP 7 ETISplus => European Transport policy Information System
3. FP 7 FLAGSHIP => Forward looking assessment driving change
4. FP 7 DESIRE => Development of resource efficiency indicators
5. FP 7 Emininn => Environmental macro Indicators of Innovation
6. FP7 - POLFREE (POLicy options For a Resource Efficient
Economy)
7. FP7 CREEA => Compiling and Refining Environmental and
Economic Accounts
8. RHOMOLO project for DG REGIO and IPTS => construction of
regional-economic model for Impact Assessment of ECP
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October 21, 2013
Ming Chen, TNO
Overview of project experiences used for this
presentation
1. FP6 EXIOPOL => A New Environmental Accounting Framework
Using Externality Data and Input-Output Tools for Policy Analysis
2. FP6 REFIT => REFinement and test of sustainability Indicators and
Tools with regard to European Transport
3. FP 6 TRANS-TOOL => development of a Transport model